THE BULL KILLS THE BEAR Although there is current uncertainty, gloom and perhaps pockets of doom, the stock market is already looking ahead to a global economic turnaround. Crude oil prices had receded to USD 80/barrel and maybe lower in 2015. This is good for global economic growth overall although the oil exporting countries may not be earning as much as they would have liked with oil prices above USD 100/barrel.
Although the FED had stopped QE, Europe had started to QE aggressively and that means global liquidity is not impacted much. The world will be in a benign interest rate environment for 2015 and that is good for stocks.
The Euro will weaken against USD and this will help the European exporting nations particularly Germany and this augurs well for future turnaround in European economies. European funds will flow out as Euro weakens to say 1.15 or parity with USD and some European funds will invest in emerging market equities.
The USA and maybe Europe will likely embark on infrastructure investment to replace its decaying infrastructure that it currently has. This will be the catalyst to spark a global demand for commodities.
The bull market will kickoff in late November 2014 as ECB decides on aggressive QE and the rally will continue with intermittent correction. What one ought to look out for is any credit tightening measures the FED in USA may take in the future which will have a knock on effect on the rest of the world. I do not see this happening for good part of 2015. Anyway the FED will give ample warnings before doing so.
One should be fully invested in stocks now rather than worry about another possible corrections which had just happened in first two weeks of October 2014.
ka55, Please be informed that the European economy is just as big as the USA economy. Infact both are equally as big and influential.Once Europe QE aggressively like what FED of USA did in 2009 onward, the Euro will weaken to say 1.15 or parity with USD. European funds will flow out. Majority will go to US to buy US bonds(safe heaven currency as US balance of payments is improving fast due to own oil production and gas exports plus appreciating USD vs Euro) and some will go to emerging markets which offer higher returns on investment.
European Funds will seek higher returns than what they can get in Europe.
Ka55, Interest rate will not go up for a while as the deflationary pressures in Europe is very real. QE just ended in US but going to start in Europe. ECB eventually will QE aggressively to avoid massive bankruptcy in main European countries. So Euro will deprecate n go outside to seek higher returns in US bonds n elsewhere that gives higher returns.The low oil prices worldwide will continue for a while longer n this is another form of QE. The depreciated Euro will help main European economies to recover.With low oil prices China, India n other economies will grow n Malaysia will derive some benefits.
As any future credit tightening measures by FED will impact on liquidity n on stock prices the main focus is to monitor closely on potential future interest rise, when n how much. At moment it's business as usual and hopefully up to next October in 2015.
at the beginning it was the WORD the WORD was with GOD the WORD was/is GOD any holy scripture/sutra DO NO PREDICTION (fortune telling-meh?) but SPEAK THE TRUTH nothing but the TRUTH as D LORD says the gift of Truth excels all other gifts -the highest gift -the BUDDHA saying -HALILUJAH !
do not worry look at lily in the valley ''''''''''''''''' america ends QE3 BOJ boosts economic stimulus EU QE is charging china is pumping RMB into country-own-banking system 1MDB & so many boleh giant corporates-raising SUKUK I am sure kita BOLEH
A Day's wage equals to one day's food for a working man"-Rev 6:6 (Bible)-- 1)emperor/king/queen/agong/sultan..... 2)pm/minister/menteri besar/governor/mp 3)director/ceo/manager/guru besar.......... 4)labourer/kuli......... 5)pelacur...... 6)ah kuah........ 7)banyak -banyak lagi ,a working man ,.......... under the eye of God each of them is EQUAL (son/daughter of God) earning a living (cari makan)
some cari more MAKAN rezeki masing-msing tak usah blame ...yah?!
TAKDIR yang menentukan segala-gala-nya.
so, in Biblical time 1 penny=1x2014=2014 pennis at present time .
I think I jump ahead when I said markets going to take breather yesterday! Apparently US announced their superb 3rd quarter of 3.5% GDP! And today Japan announce their QE! Will Japan going on shopping spree on stock markets! In bursa plenty of stocks are laggards and some already jumps ahead of their upswings! I rather not talk much until I see what's going on this coming days!
Damn! Today US and Europe already making year high after deep correction! Means that bursa have to chase 30 points to reach pre correction level! Just my 2 cents!
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Posted by chloe_ts > 2014-10-30 11:48 | Report Abuse
Finally..