Posted by CCCL > 2015-03-29 09:39 | Report Abuse

Market crash maybe after EU stop printing money. When???? We have no answer yet but worth to have "RESERVE". Happen to me ( age at mid 30's ) 1997 - all saving hangus plus job plus hutang-hutang. Why? No nothing about market just hantam hantam only. Worst case contra and margin play. Then 2008/2009 ( age at mid 40's ) - still doing fine have some reserve and only invest in profitable companies. Now at early 50's ....learn, listen and experience counts...just enjoy the lifetime roller coaster ride!!!!

Posted by soojinhou > 2015-03-29 12:11 | Report Abuse

Thanks for the timely reminder that all irrational exuberance end in tears.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2015-03-29 18:25 | Report Abuse

Posted by ks55 > Mar 28, 2015 10:50 PM | Report Abuse

不求有大功 只求無大過

The above saying is one of the most fitting as a phylosophy in life, in my opinion, more so in investing.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2015-03-29 21:20 | Report Abuse

that is what warren buffet said also... something like "avoid losing big..."

he he sorry for me kirik karak buffetology. Not really familiar with the sage of omaha's sayings (even though certain concepts deeply ingrained in my mind)

Posted by rambutan > 2015-03-31 17:26 | Report Abuse

Hi Chong, you wrote US sublime loans crisis 2007/8 - do you mean US sub-prime loans crisis of 2007/8?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2015-03-31 18:16 | Report Abuse

Thanks rambutan. I have just amended the mistakes in the post based on your comments.

Posted by rambutan > 2015-03-31 21:42 | Report Abuse

Thank you for all the long term charts. They are very useful. Are you going to do a part 3? For the new millennium?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2015-04-01 05:49 | Report Abuse

Posted by rambutan > Mar 31, 2015 09:42 PM | Report Abuse

Thank you for all the long term charts. They are very useful. Are you going to do a part 3? For the new millennium?


Still writing. Two big memorable crashes in the new millennium.

However, people are more interested in which are the hot stocks, big boys buying what stocks, which companies getting big jobs here and abroad, which companies are involving big corporate moves etc.

Are you sure you are interested in market crashes?

Posted by paperplane > 2015-04-01 08:29 | Report Abuse

Still, i think equity in us over heat. Migjt crash anytime.

Posted by paperplane > 2015-04-01 08:35 | Report Abuse

Thts why a cut loss policy a must

Posted by Jaack1 > 2015-04-01 09:02 | Report Abuse

Posted by kcchongnz > Apr 1, 2015 05:49 AM | Report Abuse

Posted by rambutan > Mar 31, 2015 09:42 PM | Report Abuse

Thank you for all the long term charts. They are very useful. Are you going to do a part 3? For the new millennium?


Still writing. Two big memorable crashes in the new millennium.

However, people are more interested in which are the hot stocks, big boys buying what stocks, which companies getting big jobs here and abroad, which companies are involving big corporate moves etc.

Are you sure you are interested in market crashes?

Good morning Mr Chong,

Do you see signs pointing to a 'crash' in the foreseeable future?

Tks
Jack

Posted by kcchongnz > 2015-04-01 10:04 | Report Abuse

Posted by Jaack1 > Apr 1, 2015 09:02 AM | Report Abuse

Good morning Mr Chong,

Do you see signs pointing to a 'crash' in the foreseeable future?


Market is like a pendulum. It goes up but there is a maximum height it can go. Similarly it can go down but it will go up again. It is like the four seasons in the North and the South but don't think that there is always summer in Malaysia year long that you don't have to worry about the season comes season goes.

Over here when Autumn comes is predictable, but it is not the case of the stock market. I have to say I won't be able to predict when the market will rise or crash. If someone tells me when the crash will come exactly, I just laugh it off, because very few people has done that correctly and consistently well.

It is only our opinion of the market now. Is it at the stage of irrational exuberance? Is it too high now? Has it run up so high so fast? Isn't there nothing worthwhile to invest in now?

To me I tend to think the answers are all "No". Again I am just using the past as a guidance.

Again I could be wrong. Didn't I say market is unpredictable?

Posted by Intelligent Investor > 2015-04-02 13:47 | Report Abuse

Hi Mr. Chong,

That was well said. In my opinion, we can't predict but we can prepare.

So, how should we manage the investment if the market is unpredictable?

Seth Klarman did provide us a good guideline - "A margin of safety is necessary because valuation is an imprecise art, the future is unpredictable, and investors are human and do make mistakes. It is adherence to the concept of a margin of safety that best distinguishes value investors from all others, who are not as concerned about loss."

And, "A margin of safety is achieved when securities are purchased at prices sufficiently below underlying value to allow for human error, bad luck, or extreme volatility in a complex, unpredictable and rapidly changing world."

And, what if the bear market really happen?

I suggest we can learn from Howard Marks - "There are two essential ingredients for profit in a declining market: you have to have a view on intrinsic value, and you have to hold that view strongly enough to be able to hang in and buy even as price declines suggest that you're wrong. Oh yes, there's a third; you have to be right."

At one extreme of the pendulum - the darkest of times - it takes analytical ability, objectivity, resolve, even imagination, to think things will ever get better. The few people who possess those qualities can make unusual profits with low risk...

And, we have to bear in mind that markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. We should invest only with the spare cash.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2015-04-02 16:51 | Report Abuse

Intelligent Investor,

Great points. Typical value investor.

Posted by enigmatic ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ > 2020-03-09 22:28 | Report Abuse

“If you're going through hell, keep going.”

Posted by enigmatic ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ > 2020-03-09 22:29 | Report Abuse

The stock market does provide good opportunities to build long term wealth as shown above. It can also be seen that some of the biggest gains in the market came in spurts and short periods of time. One can only profit from these opportunities if he is armed with the necessary knowledge and well prepared.

Posted by enigmatic ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ > 2020-03-09 22:29 | Report Abuse

Markets cannot go up forever. Many severe market declines and crashes resulting heavy losses happened in just as fast and furious without any warnings and punish those who are ignorant.

Posted by ahbah > 2020-03-09 22:30 | Report Abuse

Of course now stk mkt is a burning hell !