Posted by Icon8888 > 2015-12-13 13:12 | Report Abuse

Thanks KC. The articles gave a good summary of various gurus different methods of getting rich, save me the trouble of going through the books one by one. So much more to learn...

Posted by Icon8888 > 2015-12-13 13:16 | Report Abuse

Apart from the few highlighted in your article, there are many many other gurus

It would be nice if you can also write about them (just my wish, not imposing on you)

I will buy you coffee once I have sufficient profit to fly to New Zealand for sightseeing

X D

Posted by Probability > 2015-12-13 13:18 | Report Abuse

After that Invite KC to Malaysia....provide ticket!
let him taste our durians la..(selling very cheap coz of RM!)
then may be we all can meet him here.:)

Posted by geary > 2015-12-13 13:29 | Report Abuse

Actually nothing much to learn, so boring! Bursa has very, very few durable competitive companies and high ROE, plus i tell u what, must have more important high ROTC.

Posted by joe2703 > 2015-12-13 13:37 | Report Abuse

Thanks KC! I always learn something from your articles. I3 without your articles will be much less interesting! Please write more whenever you can so that we can learn.

Posted by geary > 2015-12-13 13:57 | Report Abuse

The ROE-Return on Equity and ROTC-Return on Total Capital should be above average of 12%. If u can find in Bursa from company A to company Z, the ROE and ROTC is above 12% for at least 7 to 10 years, it should be a durable competitive advantage company. Then u can hold for long term like Carlsberg, Nestle and GAB.

Posted by stockraider > 2015-12-13 14:05 | Report Abuse

Return on ROE is not the correct measurement....u may get high ROE like 50% but if the share price is high.....then u r DANGEROUSLY buying an overvalue stock WITH NO MARGIN OF SAFETY loh.....!!!

HIGH ROE SHOULD BE READ WITH A REASONABLE PE TO CONFIRM IT IS NOT OVERVALUE MAH......!!

Posted by Ezra_Investor > 2015-12-13 15:43 | Report Abuse

Thanks KC. A very good read.

Posted by geary > 2015-12-13 15:50 | Report Abuse

Actually there is no such thing as long term. Even Buffett sold all his portfolios in 1969, when he saw that there were nothing to buy. All the good companies were selling at P/E of above 40 times. Munger never saw it! So Buffett and his family went for a long holidays. He bought back the companies during the stock market crashed in 1973 or 1974. Dat d difference between millionaires and billionaires!1!

Posted by foodie > 2015-12-13 16:01 | Report Abuse

Klse stocks now on fire sale oso no one bothers to pick tsk tsk tsk. No one cares to be a billionaire ... Hehehe

Posted by geary > 2015-12-13 16:39 | Report Abuse

Strong upward trend EPS growth of even by 1% every year, u can see the value of the company also will go up slowly every year. Erratic EPS trend will stagnant d price of the stock, even of high ROE and u should know negative EPS will bankrupt a company. It is all up to u to analyse it rationally.

Posted by stockraider > 2015-12-13 16:46 | Report Abuse

One thing investor must take note of the quality of earnings loh...!! For example An additional Rm 1 million earn by Nestle will be worth more than equivalent earn by SP setia and say Puncak loh....!!

U must also differentiate between earnings driven by fundamental earnings or speculations loh.....!!

Posted by calvintaneng > 2015-12-13 16:54 | Report Abuse

Foodie,

I am buying with all the money I can spare. I sold some Singapore shares & switched to KLSE stocks in this very quiet December month.

In December 15th to 17th 2014 when all the people including remisiers were in a panic I bought Jaks at 39 cents, MK land at 32 cents & Pm Corp at 18 cents. I almost got Oka which fell near 50 cents.

Geary,

You are correct to observe Warren liquidated everything in 1969.

That was before the INVENTION OF QE

You see.

For thousands of years summer, autumn, winter & spring cycle go in a cycle. Until...

Until?

Until the Invention of Agriculture in Temperature Controlled Enclosures called Green Houses! I saw lots of these in Winter travels in Korea & Japan. By these inventions you can do planting at all seasons. Will explain later why it applies to investments.

After Boom should be followed by recession or depression. It was the Roaring Twenties that Usherd in the Great Depression of 1929 to 1939

And it was the Surge in Subprime Lending that caused the Housing Bust in USA.

But Warren didn't sell even though he saw 2007/8 coming. And even now Warren didn't sell but still load up his Elephant's gun.

Why so?

You see. At the peak Warren bought into Goldman's preference shares with 10% yield. He moves into stocks with bond like nature.

Warren bought into Railways because he saw the need to transport huge quantity of China goods from West to Eastern United States

And Now just as people invented Greenhouse Planting to negate the ravages of summer or winter -

THE INTRODUCTION OF QE & MORE QE WILL PREVENT CRASHES LIKE BEFORE.

So the Investing Games Have Changed.

Times have changed.

And TTB is still behind time looking at Warren's 1969 example. He might wait till the cow comes home.

So I think this December US Interest Rate Hike is already factored into the market as Bank Negara Zeti mentioned.

If anything - Yellen will open the spigots again for QE4 & QE5

Posted by r°Moi > 2015-12-13 17:26 | Report Abuse

LIKE

Posted by kcchongnz > 2015-12-13 19:02 | Report Abuse

Posted by Icon8888 > Dec 13, 2015 01:16 PM | Report Abuse
Apart from the few highlighted in your article, there are many many other gurus
It would be nice if you can also write about them (just my wish, not imposing on you)
I will buy you coffee once I have sufficient profit to fly to New Zealand for sightseeing

Yes, there are many other gurus who are as good. I will write about some of them. I will also write about the gurus in Malaysia.

Icon, you also have your own way of fundamental investing which I think it is good too. I am sure you have made sufficient profit to balanja me coffee. We have nice coffee here.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2015-12-13 19:08 | Report Abuse

Posted by geary > Dec 13, 2015 04:39 PM | Report Abuse
"Strong upward trend EPS growth of even by 1% every year, u can see the value of the company also will go up slowly every year."

Really? What if a company borrows $1 billion and make additional RM10m, or 1% growth in profit for the year. Does the value of the company goes up as you said?

"Erratic EPS trend will stagnant d price of the stock, even of high ROE and u should know negative EPS will bankrupt a company. It is all up to u to analyse it rationally."

How is it possible to get negative EPS with high ROE, or low ROE? What is R in ROE if it is not net earnings?

How do you analyse rationally with your logic?

Posted by Kevin Wong > 2015-12-13 19:31 | Report Abuse

if Buffett had have managed to time mkt as correctly as picking long term winning stocks...he would probably be the first
$trillionaire by now...haha

All the best and good luck everybody!

Posted by hissyu2 > 2015-12-13 22:14 | Report Abuse

Kevin, real value investor never "time mkrt", because Mr. Market is definitely UNPREDICTABLE. Only traders do guessing... Investor like WB, they invest based on fundamental...

Posted by 3EMWE > 2015-12-14 10:43 | Report Abuse

buffet could have been wealthier if he invested in the likes of disney or microsoft and many more in the early days but remained focus to only invest in business that he can understand which is a great advice.

Posted by Ahbeng Beng > 2015-12-14 17:09 | Report Abuse

Problem with fundamental investor is that....fundamental will change. Using past indicator as your fundamental guide will be very misleading. Beside, knowing the future trend and psychology of other investors in the play is equally important. If warren buffet was born 50 years earlier, in the 1900 america, using his technique will make you in bigger risk. He will not rise to his status at all, and will be ordinary loser if he applied his strategy. 1900 American companies 90% will not exist 50 years later. Many of current US companies listed was not born 100 years ago.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2015-12-15 11:00 | Report Abuse

Posted by Ahbeng Beng > Dec 14, 2015 05:09 PM | Report Abuse

Problem with fundamental investor is that....fundamental will change. Using past indicator as your fundamental guide will be very misleading. Beside, knowing the future trend and psychology of other investors in the play is equally important. If warren buffet was born 50 years earlier, in the 1900 america, using his technique will make you in bigger risk. He will not rise to his status at all, and will be ordinary loser if he applied his strategy. 1900 American companies 90% will not exist 50 years later. Many of current US companies listed was not born 100 years ago.


Well said. But let us look at these statistics and research findings regarding forecasting of future trend.

a. In US, the average 24-month forecast error is 93%, 12-month, 47% from 2001-2006 (SG Global Strategy Research)
b. There are too many variables; the economy, the path of interest rates, the sectors, the particular stocks, sales, costs, taxes etc
c. Forecast of target prices is a futile exercise. “We simply do not know” Keynes

• In four of the nine years, analysts have not even managed to get the direction of the change in prices correct!
• The absolute scale of the average forecast error is 25%

The above show that economists and professional analysts have been proven so poor in forecasting. What is the chance for yo and me to get future predictions right?

Warren Buffett's investing strategy is evergreen. It doesn't matter if he is born 50 years earlier or later, in my opinion.

Posted by Kevin Wong > 2015-12-15 14:12 | Report Abuse

staying invested in growth/value stocks at all times...a timeless method of investing?

Posted by Ahbeng Beng > 2015-12-16 00:17 | Report Abuse

kcchongnz
I said future trend, not forecast on index or share price. When come to investing, there isnt a fix set of skill applicable all time. A genius investor is versatile when come to different investment skill application. I applied Buffett method before, steady mildly growing income, good fundamental, fairly competitive, share was fair pricing ie not exp compare to overall market PE and its own segment PE, and many more follow his principal. End up the price was not going up for 5 years or so, fundamental changed, end up it was drop badly in price before it was finally acquired, lost $$. If I am not that hardcore fundamental investor and use more psychology approach, I will be fare better for that instance.

When come to apply fundamental investing, one of the thing that i look after is future trend. I believe on the future trend and make me willing to invest in it long term. In fact using past performance, past fundamental as indicator to apply fundamental investing, I am more favour on my belief of future trend of a company and fair value of share price when come to apply this investment approach.

I read your data....but it has no use to me. Often i come out with view that totally different with the market. Your data was showing how overall market was thinking/forecasting... but a lot of time my view is different, so the number a lot of time will not be right for me. The thing is, investing is very complex, I cannot guarantee i will getting all the things right, fundamental investment, like many other investment approach, will have its risk. The only safe way to invest is not to limit your world with one approach, know what situation use what approach. Easy say than done, it require a lot of experience, knowledge and luck.

Warren buffett was a legend because the trend was on his side, buying long term and keep during his time, many companies propel to big company, rise to prominent as US rise post world war 2. No way you can do that in 1900 when not many companies will live that long, looking at company with good fundamental, holding long term, etc will be extremely difficult when many will be gone after a few US bubble burst along the history. One way Buffett can use his approach in 1900 is, all in on coca cola...but all in on one share and hold it, never sell it, is very bad approach and very very risky.

Posted by Ahbeng Beng > 2015-12-16 00:29 | Report Abuse

Kevin Wong
staying invested in growth/value stocks at all times...a timeless method of investing?

Nope, a lot of time growth stock is not cheap too. Often it had priced in the growth factor. Once the growth stop much early than you expected, the price will response quickly and you might be in losses. When come to growth stock, I often will first see how much the premium already priced in, second, whether my view on the company is different with the market...or if same, why should i invest in it if everyone looking at the same thing, share the same opinion as me, ie no money to earn.