Posted by fayeTan > 2016-02-18 12:36 | Report Abuse

to the author of this article, good analysis.. but you should have highlighted the Target Price of RM18 in the title.

Posted by Desa20201956 > 2016-02-18 12:40 | Report Abuse

just don't take people to holland , that's all.

in an environment of falling crude prices , refineries in the West and in Malaysia are suffering ( Shell refinery is sold for a song, Warren Bufett just bought out a huge but failing refinery)
In China, refineries are having a happy year, so much so they have money to buy Shell Refinery.

You know why?

In Malaysia ( and in the West) product prices are adjusted to the lastest crude prices plus a margin.....but the refined were produced from higher priced raw materials bought several months earlier....How not to die?

In China, they practically fixed the product prices...in an environment of cheaper and cheaper crude prices, how not to make super profits?

ok.....so Petron has petrol stations and a refinery....the petrol stations buffer the losses.....but to call Petron $10........sure you not taking people to Holland?

Looking at chart above, I will say a fair price would be $ 4 - $5.

readers...be warned.

Posted by anaktimur > 2016-02-18 13:04 | Report Abuse

Other than the TP which i think is a bit exaggerated, due to the unfavorable industry....I feel the article highlighted the upside of the entity, but it would be better that the editor of this article do include the negative side as well. Btw DESA20201956, u need to really do your homework before giving out facts, especially the part where " produced from higher priced raw materials bought several months earlier ", and by looking at the chart you can easily come up with a fair price, that i really gotta give it to ya.. Love to know the reasoning behind it, cheers

Posted by Desa20201956 > 2016-02-18 13:13 | Report Abuse

produced from higher priced raw materials bought several months earlier ",......in an environment of falling crude prices......that is exactly what happens and caused Shell Refinery and other big refineries in the West to go bankrupt recently.

The selling/ product prices are adjusted to the latest prices while their raw materials were purchased at a higher price.....of course they go bankrupt.

Why you don't believe looking at the charts can tell the fair price? The fair price.....at best will be the average price of the last 5 years.....in view of their operating environment.

Posted by anaktimur > 2016-02-18 13:37 | Report Abuse

Please do take a look at the inventory days of Shell, Petdag and PetronM before coming up with your own conclusion...And as for the fair price based on charting, that is quite "unique"...Anyway, like my boss would always end his sentence "stock price will eventually justify all arguments". And Desa, i noticed that your comments throughout every forum are fairly negative. :-)

Posted by stockraider > 2016-02-18 13:37 | Report Abuse

Please take note that Shell is not Bankrupt...in fact it make EPS Rm 0.85 for 9 mths loh....!!

FYI the takeover of rm 1.80....is a pakat tho cheap minority shareholder loh....!!

Shell is trading at PE of 2X now loh....!!

It should go back to Rm 6.00 to 10.00 within say 5 yrs loh...!!

Remember some investor offer Rm 4.00....but the parent of Shell refuse to sell....but instead sold to the china party cheaply loh...!!

Posted by stockraider > 2016-02-18 13:39 | Report Abuse

BTW THE HIGHEST MSIAN BIDDER IS RM 4.00....MUCH HIGHER THAN THE GO RM 1.80 LOH.....!!

WHY SHELL SOLD FOR A SONG AND NOT THE BEST PRICE WINS ?

1. CONFLICT OF INTEREST LOH.....!! DESPITE SELLING THE REFINERY SHELL WANTS TO KEEP THE RETAIL PETROL STATIONS, THEREFORE THEY NEED TO PAKAT WITH THE NEW REFINERY OWNER LOH....!!

2. SHELL REFINERY IS A PEANUTS TO OVERALL SCHEME OF THINGS LOH....!! THE PRICE CAN BE SOLD FOR A SONG MAH..!! THEREFORE THE SENIOR MANAGEMENT HAS POTENTIAL TO PAKAT & OBTAIN PAYOUT BEHIND THE SCENE AS BEING A REWARD LOH.....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2016-02-18 13:40 | Report Abuse

Cost to the buyer oF Shell:

1. The announced sale price.

2. The debt of 1.2 billion

3. The capital expenditure to meet Euro 4 and Euro 5 product specifications.

RAIDER EXPLAIN; LOOKING AT THE CASHFLOW THE RM 1.2 BILLION ABOUT 2.5 YRS OF SHELL CASHFLOW. THUS IT IS VERY CHEAP, EASILY AFFORDABLE LOH.....!! BTW THIS RM 1.2 BILLION IS ALREADY IN THE BOOKS OF SHELL...NO NEED TO FURTHER BORROW FOR THE NEW OWNERS LOH.

THE CAPEX FOR EURO4 AND EURO5...NO PROBLEM...ITS COMPETITOR PETRON AND PET DAG WILL HAVE THE SAME PROBLEM...WHY THEIR SHARE(COMPETITOR) PRICE DID NOT COME DOWN TOO ?
THIS BCOS THE IMPLEMENTATION OF EURO 4 & 5, WILL LIKELY TO BE DELAYED & STAGGERED MAH....!!
EVEN IT IS IMPLEMENTED QUICKLY, THE LIKELY SCENARIO THE REFINERY CAN QUIETLY CHARGE A HIGHER PRICE TO RECOVER THEIR COST AS PETROL IS NO LONGER BEING SUBSIDIZE LIKE THE LAST TIME MAH....!!
IT IS LIKELY THE CAPEX WILL NOT BE THAT HIGH....BEARING IN MIND SHELL REFINERY IS MORE MODERN THAN PETRON, HAVING UPGRADED RECENTLY.

THE NINE MONTHS RESULT OF SHELL EPS IS RM 0.85....THIS MEAN PE 2.2X BASED ON GO 1.80....DIRT CHEAP LOH....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2016-02-18 13:41 | Report Abuse

Can you expect SHELL to dish out dividends in the next year or two?

Given the circumstances, no....!!??

RAIDER THINK ON THE CONTRARY LOH...!!

GIVING MAX 5 YRS SHELL SHOULD BE START PAYING DIVIDEND SOMETHING LIKE 0.40 TO RM 0.50....AS THE RESULTS OF SHELL IS EXTREMELY GOOD.

THIS MEANS DIV YIELD OF 22% PA BASING ON TAKEOVER PRICE OF RM 1.80....A REAL STEAL LOH...!!

Posted by princeisdamnhardcore > 2016-02-18 13:47 | Report Abuse

who say Shell not going to bankrupt? WTH man u dono how to read accounting numbers ar??? the debt so high, the cash created so low... one day when bank don wan to lend them money anymore then u confirm going to bankrupt

u think this is royal dutch shell ar?? this is shell malaysia ok... duno how many corrupt freaks in the unit already...

open ur eyes and see la... the auntie sell fish on the road side also can tell me that...

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-02-18 13:48 | Report Abuse

Very informative. Well done !!! As usual, buy at own risk

Posted by stockraider > 2016-02-18 14:14 | Report Abuse

Yes Shell Refinery has Rm 1.3 billion that means bankrupt meh ??

Just look at their latest account 30-9-2015, they generated Rm 550 million free cashflow loh.....!!

If Rm 1.3 billion borrowing bankrupt, then Tenaga, Air asia, Malakoff bankrupt who have more than Rm 20 billion borrowing many time loh....!!

Posted by fayeTan > 2016-02-18 14:16 | Report Abuse

time will tell whether Desa or omightcap is correct... first hint will be out by next week (latest) when the FY15 result is out

Posted by Desa20201956 > 2016-02-18 18:54 | Report Abuse

Kyy rule 1...... Don't buy shares you don't understand.......

You think you doing these mambo jumbo.......you or your readers understand the complex world of refining? Fat hopes.

They are things done to impress.....which this piece is.....
And they are things done to understand......which this piece certainly isn't.

Nobody understands the complex world of crude oil hedging, stock valuations, product pricing to a sufficient depth to do a proper forecast.....unless one is an industry insider.

It is pseudo research such as this that take yourself and your readers to holland......especially when the share is trading at it's high.


So many shares so much easier to understand, to forecast....you don't want.....

You want to get into this complex world....I see KYY advise as being very useful.

Posted by Desa20201956 > 2016-02-18 20:39 | Report Abuse

u understand what is happening or just pretending?

another story telling cousin?

Icon8888 > Feb 18, 2016 01:48 PM | Report Abuse

Very informative. Well done !!! As usual, buy at own risk

Posted by gray > 2016-02-18 20:44 | Report Abuse

she is farting all the time. Desa, what did u feed your daughter???

Posted by Desa20201956 > 2016-02-18 21:56 | Report Abuse

I find another story telling cousin just like icon.

Posted by Desa20201956 > 2016-02-18 21:56 | Report Abuse

where is icon?


ask your sifu what he finds here?

Posted by Desa20201956 > 2016-02-18 22:24 | Report Abuse

icon go hiding?

Posted by optimusv1 > 2016-02-18 22:27 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by optimusv1 > 2016-02-18 22:37 | Report Abuse

kcloh icon888 can bully weak...optimus appear....there he go hide behind coconut tree! LOL!

Posted by optimusv1 > 2016-02-18 22:38 | Report Abuse

leg shake shake...hand shake shake...wet wet pants...wahahahaha!

Posted by optimusv1 > 2016-02-18 22:42 | Report Abuse

come out play kcloh icon8888....tone down attack on you! LOL!

Posted by stockraider > 2016-02-18 22:45 | Report Abuse

Why gasak icon...when he is telling what is right mah....??!!

Some more quote KYY is an example or benchmak of good investor....from what i see in their posting, they have never ever supported, Uncle KYY method of investment.

Now Quote KYY...i m surprise loh....!! In fact Icon and raider acknowledge Uncle KYY method of investment even more loh....!!

Posted by optimusv1 > 2016-02-18 22:45 | Report Abuse

after optimus go bed sleeping...icon re-appear looking for desa desa desa desa....LOL! so gay!

Posted by Desa20201956 > 2016-02-18 22:48 | Report Abuse

Just pointing out Icon is no analyst....cannot analyse any thing if his life depended on it. icon is story teller to charm little ladies.

Posted by optimusv1 > 2016-02-18 22:51 | Report Abuse

LOL! icon8888 whack coconut tree boleh...analyst?? gob part14,15,16,17,18...wahahaha....

Posted by princeisdamnhardcore > 2016-02-19 10:59 | Report Abuse

wah lao eh... i3investor people damn free ar... wth man rather than talking rubbish here plz go download an annual report to analyze la... reli like to waste time here arguing and shit

Posted by snow > 2016-02-19 11:43 | Report Abuse

why?

Posted by invest_101 > 2016-02-22 10:29 | Report Abuse

Appreciate your thoughts and effort in the above contribution. Unlike some comments which are baseless and/or not substantianted. Please do continue to update especially on Petronm and Shell.
Had a quick look at Shell myself and noticed that nta has not incorporated substantial tax assets to date. Just unsure about cash call by new shareholder, if any. Kudos.

Posted by probability > 2017-06-13 23:33 | Report Abuse

stockmanmy's business sense...proved very well. He missed 100% return opportunity!

Name: Desa, Born: 1956


Posted by Desa20201956 > Feb 18, 2016 06:54 PM | Report Abuse

Kyy rule 1...... Don't buy shares you don't understand.......

You think you doing these mambo jumbo.......you or your readers understand the complex world of refining? Fat hopes.

They are things done to impress.....which this piece is.....
And they are things done to understand......which this piece certainly isn't.

Nobody understands the complex world of crude oil hedging, stock valuations, product pricing to a sufficient depth to do a proper forecast.....unless one is an industry insider.

It is pseudo research such as this that take yourself and your readers to holland......especially when the share is trading at it's high.


So many shares so much easier to understand, to forecast....you don't want.....

You want to get into this complex world....I see KYY advise as being very useful.



Posted by Desa20201956 > Feb 18, 2016 12:40 PM | Report Abuse

just don't take people to holland , that's all.

in an environment of falling crude prices , refineries in the West and in Malaysia are suffering ( Shell refinery is sold for a song, Warren Bufett just bought out a huge but failing refinery)
In China, refineries are having a happy year, so much so they have money to buy Shell Refinery.

You know why?

In Malaysia ( and in the West) product prices are adjusted to the lastest crude prices plus a margin.....but the refined were produced from higher priced raw materials bought several months earlier....How not to die?

In China, they practically fixed the product prices...in an environment of cheaper and cheaper crude prices, how not to make super profits?

ok.....so Petron has petrol stations and a refinery....the petrol stations buffer the losses.....but to call Petron $10........sure you not taking people to Holland?

Looking at chart above, I will say a fair price would be $ 4 - $5.

readers...be warned.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-06-13 23:39 | Report Abuse

no, I not interested in Petron or HRC.....

many reasons for that, amongst which...too low PE never interest me...when you got a share too low PE, it is very likely you are buying a share at its cyclical high point in profits.

its just too obvious for my liking.

Posted by probability > 2017-06-13 23:41 | Report Abuse

ok. keep it up Desa

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-06-13 23:42 | Report Abuse

probability...look at the dates Desa commented...those comments are spot on...........HRC and Petron drop more than 50% after Desa comments.

Posted by probability > 2017-06-13 23:46 | Report Abuse

ok...nevermind...im just curious of the fact that a person's thought process...is impossible to change. You have been the same for the last 1 year.. no right or wrong.

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-06-14 02:24 | Report Abuse

Good article