Posted by moneySIFU > 2016-09-26 09:30 | Report Abuse

Great works & well written article, thank you for sharing such fantastic analysis, WealthWizard

Posted by moneySIFU > 2016-09-26 09:32 | Report Abuse

But now steel stocks are hot now, not fly yet, good to buy more :)

Posted by WealthWizard > 2016-09-26 09:33 | Report Abuse

Thank you, moneySIFU, hope this article help in understanding debts structure of Ekovest.

Posted by probability > 2016-09-26 09:40 | Report Abuse

WealthWizard..your articles are simply brilliant. The information you had provided is exactly what i wanted.

I am amazed that the market is yet to react accordingly... As always the case, results (facts) will have its last say.

Posted by phoenix888 > 2016-09-26 09:46 | Report Abuse

today is masteel day..that tax thingy havent publish in newspaper also..those who know early can enter market first

Posted by Benjamin_8888 > 2016-09-26 10:21 | Report Abuse

Thanks wealthwizard,

Posted by Benjamin_8888 > 2016-09-26 10:28 | Report Abuse

Moneysifu I'm thinking to do profit taking on Masteel and shift capital to accumulate more csc before mid oct

Posted by probability > 2016-09-26 10:35 | Report Abuse

Masteel is too risky. I would say CSCSTEL as very safe, Mycron has a lot of appeal currently. Choo Bee...requires patience.

Posted by Jay > 2016-09-26 10:39 | Report Abuse

@wealthwizard not to pick on you but I think some of your calculations may be wrong

Since you touch on consolidation:
1. I don't quite get your proforma balance sheet after disposal. Kesturi disposal is only for 40%, which means Ekovest still control 60% and Kesturi will remain a subsidiary. This is important because that means all assets and liabilities should still be consolidated based on 100%, not 60%, not 40%

2. which means the debt stays with kesturi, and Kesturi remains an Ekovest 60% owned subsidiary. which also means P/L should remain the same, because it's still based on 100% consolidation under IFRS 10

3. as Ekovest interest drops only from 100% to 60% (not below 50%), no gain on disposal will be recognised. but the difference in proceeds and NCI will be recognised in shareholders' equity. so you are correct that net assets will increase but it will be through equity instead of gain on disposal shown in P/L

4. assuming your calculations are correct on cost of investment, I think you made a mistake on net asset per share. the calculation should be equity excluding NCI divided by number of shares, which should be RM2.43 per share

Posted by WealthWizard > 2016-09-26 10:45 | Report Abuse

Jay, thank you for comemnt, please read my statement below which is also in the article

Guidance of Reading:
EPF is valuing Kesturi at RM2.8bil and is willing to pay cash RM1.13bil for 40% shares in Kesturi.

By referring to Audited Balance Sheet of Kesturi (Table 6), Kesturi is the one who issued Islamic Medium Term Notes & NOT Ekovest. (Refer to old news here)

So, EPF is buying the toll business with loans & liabilities in Kesturi.

As such, by grouping the assets & liabilities of Kesturi into Cost of investment in Kesturi at Group level of Ekovest, we can see investment in Kesturi of RM918m in the Table 5.

By classifying Kesturi as standalone investment by Ekovest, we can work out actual ratios for other businesses of Ekovest.

Posted by WealthWizard > 2016-09-26 10:50 | Report Abuse

Your point No.3 is not correct, the disposal of any shares in subsidiary will result in gain or loss of disposal in other income or other operating expenditure.

By taking up the effect, the disposal will need to take into the cost of investment in the subsidiary, that's RM918m. So the cost for 40% will be RM367m.

See below double entries for capturing the disposal:

Dr Cash RM1,130m
Cr Gain on disposal of subsidiary RM763m
Cr Non-controlling interest Rm367m

Posted by Jay > 2016-09-26 10:50 | Report Abuse

ok but you should specify it's just to calculate ratios for Ekovest other business. because the actual balance sheet after disposal will be very different from what you show here, it's kind of misleading

Posted by WealthWizard > 2016-09-26 10:51 | Report Abuse

Your are right on Point 4, it was my mistake. Now corrected. Thanks for pointing out.

Posted by Jay > 2016-09-26 10:52 | Report Abuse

on point 3, if you refer to IFRS 10, you will see there's different accounting treatment when it comes to disposal of subsidiary. when no loss of control, it is treated as transaction between equity owners. it will flow directly between equity and not through P/L. in fact, even if later Ekovest dispose kesturi again, the gain this round also won't be recycled back into P/L

Posted by Benjamin_8888 > 2016-09-26 10:59 | Report Abuse

Agreed probability, thanks

Posted by WealthWizard > 2016-09-26 11:00 | Report Abuse

I did highlight in the title at table 3 where the ratio is excluding toll business

Posted by Jay > 2016-09-26 11:02 | Report Abuse

yes but for table 5, it gives an impression this is the proforma balance sheet after disposal (which isn't). not saying it's not useful but just to make sure everyone is clear. because I think a lot of readers are concerned of the D/E and was expecting the whole IMTN will disappear after disposal which won't happen, so your table 5 could give them false hope

Posted by probability > 2016-09-26 11:03 | Report Abuse

Good discussions here. Jay & W-Wizard...glad to have brilliant guys like you here.

Posted by WealthWizard > 2016-09-26 11:11 | Report Abuse

It's not false hope, I believe you know it, it is just my flow of thinking where the NTA should be calculated.

My main purpose is to show the cost of investment is right via the movement in balance sheet.

As I said in my earlier comments in my first article, it may be too technical in presenting the adjusted balance sheet.

Posted by WealthWizard > 2016-09-26 11:12 | Report Abuse

Also, I never said the gain will flow back to PL, it is the changes in reserves in Balance Sheet, so it is correct.

Posted by WealthWizard > 2016-09-26 11:12 | Report Abuse

I think I need to move away the classification of investment in subsidiary to avoid any further confusion.

Posted by WealthWizard > 2016-09-26 11:14 | Report Abuse

My intention is to show the movement of events, rather than discussing in technical things, not many will understand about it.

Posted by Jay > 2016-09-26 11:18 | Report Abuse

I agree that too technical can confuse readers. that's why it's actually better just to show the expected NTA per share after disposal instead of the full balance sheet. And I think it would be good to caution readers that IMTN will remain in the balance sheet after disposal so D/E will only improve to the extent Ekovest utilise part of the RM1.1b in repaying borrowings and increase in equity

Posted by WealthWizard > 2016-09-26 11:19 | Report Abuse

I agreed with you, Jay, that's what I am thinking now

Posted by WealthWizard > 2016-09-26 11:22 | Report Abuse

The reason I presented in this way because too many people think that Ekovest is high debt company while it is common nature for all toll operators.

So we need to break it out to see the actual picture of Ekovest by referring to the balance sheets of Group & Kesturi.

Posted by moneySIFU > 2016-09-26 11:25 | Report Abuse

Wow, very good discussions here, not seeing in other place, well done, Jay & WealthWizard.

Posted by Jay > 2016-09-26 11:28 | Report Abuse

yup my point here is that the gain on disposal won't be spotted in P/L and D/E won't drastically improve overnight, but these won't dampen the prospects of the company because gain on disposal still reflected in increase of NA and most debts are secured against highway and will be self financing by itself

Posted by moneySIFU > 2016-09-26 11:29 | Report Abuse

It proved the calculation is reasonable reflecting the actual situation of Ekovest, truly thank you, WealthWizard, for guiding us to understand how to look at Balance Sheets of Ekovest & Kesturi.

It is true where sometimes the newspaper is very confusing. See below:

Ekovest Bhd, controlled by property tycoon Tan Sri Lim Kang Hoo, has issued a RM2.48 billion bond programme to part finance the construction of Phase 2 of the Duta-Ulu Kelang Expressway (DUKE).

In fact, it was KESTURI that issued the bond, not Ekovest.

Thank you again for leading us to undestand above, WealthWizard

Posted by moneySIFU > 2016-09-26 11:31 | Report Abuse

I like your statement, Jay:

most debts are secured against highway and will be self financing by itself

Posted by moneySIFU > 2016-09-26 11:31 | Report Abuse

The audited balance sheet of Kesturi presented by WealthWizard has proved it very useful

Posted by Jay > 2016-09-26 11:41 | Report Abuse

so basically IMO the positive stuffs about Ekovest:

1) Holding good assets or rights (Duke 1-3, Danga Bay landbank etc.)
2) Good construction orderbook (>RM4b)
3) Well-connected shareholders
4) Potential strong partner in EPF
5) Prospects of special dividend
6) Potential proxy for election, property sector relaxation, or Johor property turnaround

Risks

1) EPF withdraw due to public pressure (low probability high risk)
2) earnings won't be great in the short term as Duke 2 slowly kicks in and if residential sector remains weak (high probability low risk)
3) change in concession terms, in term of duration, toll rates revision etc. (low probability medium risk)
4) change in government and new government decides not to honour Duke concession (low probability high risk)
5) Change in traffic pattern whether due to public transport or other highways (medium probability medium risk)

Posted by Jay > 2016-09-26 11:44 | Report Abuse

it is normal for concession companies to issue bond at the subsidiary level. basically to match the cashflow. so the timing for interest and principal payment will be structured to match expected toll proceeds and toll rate revision schedule. give it enough time, then the debt will be slowly extinguished. this is also why bond investors love concession bonds even though the return is generally lower

Posted by Jay > 2016-09-26 11:48 | Report Abuse

which is why wealthwizard brings up a good point, it's normal for concession companies to rack up a lot of debts because capex is high and the cost of financing is cheap. same for IPPs or TNB

Posted by moneySIFU > 2016-09-26 12:42 | Report Abuse

Construction outfit Ekovest Bhd expects to surpass the RM1 billion revenue mark by its financial year ending December 31 next year, driven by strong outstanding order book of RM5.3 billion.

Other than that, Lim said, the group was pre-qualified for the Light Rail Transit Line Three and Mass Rapid Transit Line Two.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/moneymoney/105124.jsp

Posted by WealthWizard > 2016-09-26 14:40 | Report Abuse

Thank you, moneySIFU, my projection of revenue matches the one that said by the director, please stay tune.

Posted by Equityengineer > 2016-09-26 21:08 | Report Abuse

After a long time, seeing a constructive comment which benefits all. Win-win situation.Impeccable arguments and points for readers digest by jay and wealth wizard.

Posted by WealthWizard > 2016-09-26 22:54 | Report Abuse

Please take note that I have just amended Table 5 incorporating the effect of 40% disposal in Kesturi to suit the purpose of title, changes in NTA.

Posted by WealthWizard > 2016-09-26 22:59 | Report Abuse

Thank you, Equityengineer, I believe figures will tell the story & sometimes we need cross checking from our fellow members to make sure the calculation is not far away from the facts.

Respect disagreement & ready to accept reasonably differences.

Posted by WealthWizard > 2016-09-26 23:02 | Report Abuse

Jay, I suggest you to state full name of the accounting terms used in your comments as normal people may not know what are these terms.

Posted by probability > 2016-09-27 11:14 | Report Abuse

facts will eventually prevail...

Posted by probability > 2016-09-27 16:53 | Report Abuse

have a feeling..its slowly cooking up in a pressure cooker..

Posted by moneySIFU > 2016-09-27 20:44 | Report Abuse

Look at George Kent & Gadang, when results out, market only realise the true value.

Since I am in the collection mode, so the cheaper the better.

Posted by probability > 2016-09-30 19:30 | Report Abuse

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/09/30/epf-defends-duke-highway-buy/

Posted by probability > 2016-09-30 19:47 | Report Abuse

Ekovest secured the 53 year concession in January this year, or eight months prior to the stake sale to the EPF. Plans for the Duke 2 and Duke 3 highways were also announced after the companys 30 percent stake purchase from MRCB.

Posted by probability > 2016-09-30 22:23 | Report Abuse

https://realestate.ipe.com/news/infrastructure/malaysias-epf-to-take-40-stake-in-kuala-lumpur-toll-road-group/10015410.article

Posted by Flintstones > 2016-10-05 13:26 | Report Abuse

Wizard bro, where did you find the toll revenue and profit under kesturi?

Posted by WealthWizard > 2016-10-05 23:48 | Report Abuse

Hi Flintstones, I guess you are mentioning the balance sheet of Kesturi, it was extracted from Kesturi's Audited Accounts for the year ended 30/6/2015.

Posted by Flintstones > 2016-10-06 14:39 | Report Abuse

Wealth bro, can I have the link source of the audited accounts?

Posted by WealthWizard > 2016-10-06 14:42 | Report Abuse

Hi Flintstones, the audited accounts of Kesturi is not available online and it is lots of pages, each page 1 file, need to combine into 1 file.

I am working on Part 3 now & will publish complete set of the audited accounts after that.

Posted by Flintstones > 2016-10-06 14:46 | Report Abuse

Do share the annual audited accounts of Kesturi. Ekovest does not reveal a lot about kesturi in its financial reports including its sukik coupon rate etc. I think having access to kesturi accounts will allow investors to gauge the true earning power of duke highway.