Posted by Biorider > 2016-11-30 12:13 | Report Abuse

Bro, not all the 2.2B is belongs to Pesona, please bear in mind that some contracts are secured under JV of two or three companies....good, simple and straight to point analysis... good job!!

Posted by Jay > 2016-11-30 17:53 | Report Abuse

good attempt but too simplistic

1. number of shares not 653m, should factor in warrants 110m and 39.5m new shares to be issued for acquisition of unimap, diluted share based is 802m, so eps is 6c instead of 7c

2. unimap RM10m profit is based on valuer's estimation 2 years ago, no updated valuation this round and the company actually made losses in the construction period, so profitability may be doubtful.

3. unimap company has huge payables (>RM100m), after change in ownership, pesona may have to borrow to pay that, incurring interest

4. highway concession you don't get paid upfront, so have to borrow to finance the project. again will incur high interest cost. highway concession in initial years usually is ebitda positive but net profit negative to breakeven

all these add up can give you an illusion of very high ceiling when in reality, it may be much lower. have to be more careful in the calculations