You're right, today. As for the "doubters, non-entrepreneurs and scared types," they could be right tomorrow. In Jan this year, as soon as RM strengthened, export stocks plunged, yes, plunged, even when record Q4 was going to be announced. Market was very efficient. A friend gave back RM20 mil in Jan/Feb. Thanks for sharing your position, no need to call names on those who disagree.
Bank Negara already said RM movement is due to speculative activities, not Malaysia's fundamental issues. On mid-Aug: USD to MYR is 4.0. Now is 4.47. Topglove is 4.4. Today ref. price is 5.28.
Today: USD vs MYR up 0.1% Topglove down 3.4%
I bet someone in Topglove knows the MYR gonna strengthen back.
As for Liihen, it is already past its prime in May and now profits in declining mode.
Trump will have 4 years time..what can be done in 4 years?
1) increase infra expenses to push economy- YES 2) pass a new law to impose minor tax so fund seated oversea can be repatriate back to US and invest into whatever government fiscal spending bond (with expectation of good return since fed going to raise rate soon) - YES 3) move back oversea job to usa? Apple and the rest will think think think...then 4 years past liao..- NO
RINGGIT strengthen? Maybe after election and if there is a major win.
Calculations wrong. 10% increase exchange will result in extra 15 mil sales, that's only gross sales. Besides, it is correct sales is in a declining mode. That's the reason for no buyers At best, it could maintaining last years figure with fired gain. Ended Sep Q should have a huge jump for Christmas orders but it declined instead
The export play, in my opinion, has limited upside and plenty of downside. The consensus view now is that RM would weaken with trump presidency. But lets face it. The consensus view is almost always wrong. Assuming RM do indeed go down to RM 5, that is only about a 10% movement. It is a far smaller movement compared to, say, RM 3 to RM 4.4. And also, many traders do not understand that most export companies are manufacturers who do not command high PE. Export companies are no Dutch Lady or Nestle. Even when you put 10x PE, I feel a but too rich as well.
Agreed with Flintstones. Export theme is a good play but don't put too much high hope on it. Many were enjoying the last great party before entering suffer stage. Think the old memory still haunted them.
Support Stockman for Liihen. Its management is very good in tackle challenges ahead. Let's wait and see for more quarters after so many Q of excellent works. But Hevea and Homeritz already can't keep their momentum already, qr deteriorated is a fact.
Liihen is the highest potential counter in furniture industry now. Most companies in the industry are facing lackluster earnings at least until the next quarter.
Posted by Lukesharewalker > Dec 1, 2016 06:21 PM | Report Abuse
Calculations wrong. 10% increase exchange will result in extra 15 mil sales, that's only gross sales.
Ans: Ringgit today revisits its 14-month low at 4.46 against the US Dollar. Ringgit retreats 8% since 1st October, 2016. The tumbling of Ringgit is a great boon to Liihen as its sales are 100% exported.
As per 3Q2016 report, its revenues & profits were respectively Rm 145mil & Rm 16mil. Assuming all other variables affecting its bottom line remain unchanged, the stronger US Dollar means its revenue is set to increase by the same percentage of 8% (RM11.6mil) to RM157mil.
Profit is however set to jump significantly 72% (RM11.6mil) from RM16mil to RM27.6mil. The above profit increase calculation does not take into account the potential unrealised forex gains from their receivables stipulated in the balance sheet.
Wonder why most furniture companies did not report good earnings in last quarters while raw materials (plywood and chipboard) prices crashed recently as witness with poor earnings in timber companies. Any input?
The USD appreciation gain for exporters is the low hanging fruit. Now, what if demand for their goods drop? I think that is the reason why some export-orientated stocks rise and then drop again. That said, it is good for 'hit n run' strategy.
Stockmanmy/Icon888,how about latitude? Latitude latest earning higher than liihen but market cap still lower than liihen. Cash level also higher for latitude. Thanks.
I always invest in recent good profit companies. Very safe way to earn money. Not intelligent enough to care much about outside factors like commodities prices.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
ronnietan
141 posts
Posted by ronnietan > 2016-12-01 16:22 | Report Abuse
You're right, today.
As for the "doubters, non-entrepreneurs and scared types," they could be right tomorrow.
In Jan this year, as soon as RM strengthened, export stocks plunged, yes, plunged, even when record Q4 was going to be announced. Market was very efficient. A friend gave back RM20 mil in Jan/Feb.
Thanks for sharing your position, no need to call names on those who disagree.