Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-01-13 10:13 | Report Abuse

icon


write your piece.

not enough response.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-01-13 12:21 | Report Abuse

would be good if it can drop back to $ 1.10.

A lot of people can be satisfied that way.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-01-14 11:34 | Report Abuse

Hai Duong IPP - FCF NPV at 12% equity cost is RM 1.096 billion
value to Jaks @30% $ 329 million (or 75 sen share)

gains from EPC Contract US$ 91 million or $ 409.5 million
discounted value to Jaks $ 298 million (or 68 sen per share)


discounting a cash flow at 12% has factored in some risk elements.
The real gain is more than 75 sen and 68 sen respectively.



so, if you add current NTA $ 1.20 + .75 + .68 + X factor.,
the worth of the Company share is $ 2.63 plus X factor.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-01-14 11:38 | Report Abuse

in shares of long gestation period such as this, it is easy to be too early by a few years..eg buying at peak last year........but now, the EPC income is coming in already.

Posted by VenFx > 2017-01-14 16:38 | Report Abuse

Errr,,, The job is expected to enjoy margins of c.20% PAT .
Could Stockmanmy shed some light for the above PAT ?

My understanding is, M&E rarely can achieve the 20% PAT.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-01-14 17:42 | Report Abuse

but this is a fixed one ....left hand , right hand....arranged marriage.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-01-14 17:53 | Report Abuse

Hai Duong IPP - FCF NPV at 12% equity cost is RM 1.096 billion
value to Jaks @30% $ 329 million (or 75 sen share)

gains from EPC Contract US$ 91 million or $ 409.5 million
discounted value to Jaks $ 298 million (or 68 sen per share)


discounting a cash flow at 12% has factored in some risk elements.
The real gain is more than 75 sen and 68 sen respectively.



so, if you add current NTA $ 1.20 + .75 + .68 + X factor.,
the worth of the Company share is $ 2.63 plus X factor

correction

OF COURSE, NTA CAN ALSO BE REPLACED VALUE OF JAKS WITHOUT THE IPP + .75 + .68 + X factor.

Posted by OrlandoOil > 2017-01-14 18:36 | Report Abuse

Jaks n CPECC form JV n both wil overbil JV wit arranged marriage.. left hand to right hand so is thr real profit?? Won't tat increase d cost of d IPP n reduce profit in future?

How it work? Can explain?

stockmanmy but this is a fixed one ....left hand , right hand....arranged marriage.
14/01/2017 17:42

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-01-14 18:51 | Report Abuse

its all in the budget and the cashflows....and the bankers have to agree. After all, the bankers are financing 70% of the deal....the bankers have to make sure their interests are protected.

Success of any JV depends on both parties happy and no cheating. CPECC will also over bill./...it is all in the Budget.

According to Public Bank report, a previous IPP budget for similar plant in Vietnam which has gone online is even higher

Since, this is not a pioneer project and got precedent already, the bankers and investors are more willing. Tariffs and attitude of Vietnam government is the crucial piece in the whole puzzle.....not the EPC margin.

Posted by OrlandoOil > 2017-01-14 18:56 | Report Abuse

Explanation not convincing. Jak up d cost Viet govt oso bolih?

Posted by OrlandoOil > 2017-01-14 18:58 | Report Abuse

Tis IPP tariff is fixed or cost plus? Jak up cost has no effect on future profit?

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-01-14 19:00 | Report Abuse

the Vietnam government part of the puzzle is the tariffs, not the EPC margin. The tariffs have been agreed.

The bankers are there to make sure the project is viable based on the Budget.

Posted by OrlandoOil > 2017-01-14 19:01 | Report Abuse

If no effect Y not margins of c.50% PAT?

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-01-14 19:07 | Report Abuse

Because the parties have to find the golden mean, every thing affects every thing else.

Posted by OrlandoOil > 2017-01-14 19:08 | Report Abuse

Explain u take a EPC profit thn take up d JV loss at same time wat is d point?

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-01-14 19:15 | Report Abuse

According to Public Bank report, the IRR of the project is in the mid teens.
If you can find an IPP with IRR in the mid teens, you can easily list it and get a good premium.

Posted by OrlandoOil > 2017-01-14 19:18 | Report Abuse

Right hand put in left hand take out all own funds. If screw up b4 complete Viet govt has liability? I mean like Bakun.

Posted by OrlandoOil > 2017-01-14 19:25 | Report Abuse

Tis IPP delay many times wit many potential partners must b very risky?

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-01-14 19:30 | Report Abuse

Super investors has 3 characteristics.....they receive new information, receptive to new ideas and confidence in own abilities.................................and also buy Jaks. lol

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-01-14 19:33 | Report Abuse

the project is full stream ahead already
no turning back

Posted by OrlandoOil > 2017-01-14 19:33 | Report Abuse

Explanations not convicting. In any case IPP very boring. Suitable for dynamic punting??

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-01-14 19:35 | Report Abuse

IPP at matured stage is for retirement funds
Jaks at this stage is for dynamic investing.

A game changer
Like it changed Francis Yeoh's life.

Posted by OrlandoOil > 2017-01-14 19:40 | Report Abuse

Now Jak is almost fully valued liao.

Posted by VenFx > 2017-01-14 19:45 | Report Abuse

Can compare Jaks to next peer MFCB ?

Posted by OrlandoOil > 2017-01-14 19:55 | Report Abuse

Should ask ur super investor kyy his experience with IPP

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-01-14 19:57 | Report Abuse

its business, then people then numbers.....
the real question is....what you think of this second generation Jaks?

they look competent and ambitious.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-01-14 19:59 | Report Abuse

Indian IPP?

Indians all talk.....

But Vietnamese will go places, and this will be successful.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-01-14 20:07 | Report Abuse

It can fail, just like any project can fail...but it cannot get over valued at this floor stage....plenty of stages to come...EPC, IPP, Listing and more.........


OrlandoOil > Jan 14, 2017 07:40 PM | Report Abuse

Now Jak is almost fully valued liao.

Posted by OrlandoOil > 2017-01-14 20:09 | Report Abuse

Dynamic punting wil not hold for long.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-01-14 20:12 | Report Abuse

Its dynamic investing....much easier than speculating.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-01-14 20:20 | Report Abuse

the bankers think it is bankable...and indeed signed the financing already...

skepticism is good...but inability to take risks, you will never be super investor.

gains always come from taking good risks...and all in when you got good hands.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-01-14 20:23 | Report Abuse

13 chapters of Dynamic Investing....

Now, put all to good use in Jaks.

Posted by OrlandoOil > 2017-01-14 20:30 | Report Abuse

Wil d account show EPC profit minus JV loss = 0?

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-01-14 20:33 | Report Abuse

The JV don't show loss.
In fact the JV IRR is in the mid teens.

Posted by OrlandoOil > 2017-01-14 20:39 | Report Abuse

IRR for d duration of d whole IRR revenue for JV only come in after completing b4 all costs capitalise?

Posted by OrlandoOil > 2017-01-14 20:42 | Report Abuse

Jaks profit for now is not real everything jz add to own JV IPP cost

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-01-14 21:04 | Report Abuse

no doubt, the EPC profits is lumpy and comes to an end after a few years. Of course cannot employ a simple PE on the earnings.

But, will give a boost to the share price and allow lower capital commitment by Jaks.

Probably how all IPPs are being done.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-01-14 21:06 | Report Abuse

just like road concessions....Ekovest, Gamuda, UEM....all done like that.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-01-15 03:00 | Report Abuse

Game changer

Your portfolio must have game changers.

Dynamic investing

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-01-15 07:46 | Report Abuse

the magic of accounting
costs are capitalised. Income is revenue.

by OrlandoOil > Jan 14, 2017 08:42 PM | Report Abuse

Jaks profit for now is not real everything jz add to own JV IPP cost

Posted by SALAM > 2017-01-15 18:50 | Report Abuse

Profit from EPC are used to off set cost in JV. After completion in 4 years, all sales less ME are net income...Marvellous..huat ar..

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-01-16 14:58 | Report Abuse

they call it the golden mean. Huat.

Posted by newb1995 > 2017-01-27 13:42 | Report Abuse

Good closing today...any good news?

Posted by Ameera > 2017-01-27 14:09 | Report Abuse

Nice closing today! Next week 1.40!

Posted by thesteward > 2017-01-31 20:54 | Report Abuse

;-) :-))

Posted by abangadik > 2017-02-27 20:15 | Report Abuse

Maybe another ID forever retired from i3...haiy....

Posted by VenFx > 2017-02-27 20:16 | Report Abuse

Fire Rooster is Bad year to KYY & Stockmanmy .
Should listen to OTB .

Posted by yfchong > 2017-02-27 20:18 | Report Abuse

Jaks would not be that bad.... Uncle fong also hold .?

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-02-27 21:48 | Report Abuse

Jaks....$ 1.03 to $ 1.40 recently...............


Great show already.


Part 2 to start soon.

Posted by DK66 > 2017-07-30 16:09 | Report Abuse

Hai Duong IPP - FCF NPV at 12% equity cost is RM 1.096 billion

How do u work out the maths ?