Posted by user > 2017-03-21 16:13 | Report Abuse

Better go for CCK.....

Posted by 明天会更好 > 2017-03-21 16:16 | Report Abuse

谢谢分享，很好的文章。

Posted by 明天会更好 > 2017-03-21 16:20 | Report Abuse

写的通俗易懂，文章逻辑性强，依照惯例，先来个大方向，然后抽丝剥茧的把公司里里外外的一切摊出来给大家看个仔细，棒！

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2017-03-21 16:59 | Report Abuse

That's why I'm asking you. You are the one owning the stock. And correction here, 10 years return is 9% instead of 5%. Every dollar invested in the business generated 9 cents in the past, so will the assets from Farm Best change that? CAB generated 35-55 mil from operations, 50% goes into maintaining current revenue, the rest into working capital, capex etc to integrate and grow Farm Best, so how much is the FCF for next few years? That's what you've to answer.

But these are only relevant if you plan to hold it more than 3 years. Or else we will be wasting our time. Not saying long term is great & short term is bad, but business takes time. Remember ppl talking about the great prospect of IFCAMSC not long ago? They were riding the beautiful story while it last. Same goes for QL at PE30, that's a lot to pay for chickens.

Posted by probability > 2017-03-21 17:07 | Report Abuse

i remember last time QL wanted to takeover Lay Hong right...what was the offer price?

Posted by WealthWizard > 2017-03-21 17:08 | Report Abuse

Thanks for sharing your view, Ricky Yeo, you always welcome to express your opinions so we can have complete views over a company/business.

As next article will be focused in financial matters of the company, it will be best for me to address after I publish my next article.

Posted by WealthWizard > 2017-03-21 17:11 | Report Abuse

Thank you, VenFx & Probability

Posted by WealthWizard > 2017-03-21 17:13 | Report Abuse

Also thanks to SuperMan 99 & HawkEyes

Posted by cheoky > 2017-03-21 17:16 | Report Abuse

if u want to invest in the counter, eat more ayamas and chicken in kfc, put the money where your mouth is. otherwise move to another counter. firstly, you get fulfilled and stay in touch with that market. win-win. If turn out to be a flop, you still win and lost a bit as you put the money where your mouth is. You can sense something wrong prior to others.. for me, i put in ranhill and malakoff hahaha, just kidding. but got a point right?

Posted by VenFx > 2017-03-21 17:17 | Report Abuse

U are welcome WealthWizard sifu.

Posted by probability > 2017-03-21 17:27 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by WealthWizard > 2017-03-21 17:33 | Report Abuse

Thanks to probability for sharing, we didn't know why it was offered RM3.50 when price was only RM2.30. But subsequently market opined that it was too low too.

Posted by WealthWizard > 2017-03-21 17:43 | Report Abuse

The reasons for me to break into few parts are because it is too long & too detailed to put everything into one article.

Also, after release of my part 1 article, I can take opportunities to read comments from fellow members, from there it will give me brain storming benefit & allow me to write better contents in my next article.

Posted by moneySIFU > 2017-03-21 18:49 | Report Abuse

Thank you, WealthWizard. Looking forward for your part 2 :)

Posted by lizi > 2017-03-21 18:55 | Report Abuse

one article share price up 10%, five article then chun chun reach RM3.00. hehe.

Posted by VenFx > 2017-03-21 19:04 | Report Abuse

It doesn't happen that way..

WealthWzard's way is to let the figure reach us, and to simplify it for our quick reading and brain storm us.
That eventually, we are able to get the best close to the company that we stay invested . Unlike most research materials, they are always full with technical language that might confusing us.

With WealthWizard report, we are very close to make a super investment.

Posted by lizi > 2017-03-21 19:08 | Report Abuse

hahaha.

Posted by probability > 2017-03-21 20:40 | Report Abuse

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/02/10/research-firm-sees-strong-fundamentals-for-poultry-counters/

Posted by myinvesting > 2017-03-21 21:21 | Report Abuse

wow I just invested yesterday and today it flies. Thank you for sharing.

Posted by valuelurker > 2017-03-21 21:45 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by probability > 2017-03-21 21:54 | Report Abuse

valuelurker....no doubt u are one of the greatest stock picker in i3...kindly share us your current picks also la...

kutuk saja tanpa rekomen..tak baik la..

Posted by Iamxuewen > 2017-03-21 22:05 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by SeeSky > 2017-03-21 22:10 | Report Abuse

wow so many sifu here: probability, VenFx, WealthWizard, moneySIFU...something must sweet in CAB that attracted so many sifu here. More to come?

Posted by moneySIFU > 2017-03-21 22:17 | Report Abuse

Probability, the news is worth to read but it was published on 10/2/2017, weeks before the latest QR (27/2/2017) released.

Posted by probability > 2017-03-21 22:22 | Report Abuse

Yes $$-sifu...i see no reason why the gross profit of CAB cant match its peers one day..if it does, implications on its net profit would be really significant.

Posted by Iamxuewen > 2017-03-21 22:24 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Iamxuewen > 2017-03-21 22:27 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Iamxuewen > 2017-03-21 22:31 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by KCLiew > 2017-03-21 22:37 | Report Abuse

Remember MoneySifu said : one man's meat may be another man's poison or simply this is not your cup of coffee/tea.

Posted by Iamxuewen > 2017-03-21 22:42 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Iamxuewen > 2017-03-21 22:44 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by moneySIFU > 2017-03-21 22:46 | Report Abuse

It was like Robert Kuok in sugar business, CAB is also in the controlled item business, the profit margin has been stable over the years and I don't this will change significantly in future, but it may be improved progressively by having efficient & effective operating cost management and running it at larger scale (benefiting from economy of scale).

It is interesting to see its sales increased 38% YoY in latest QR & delivered best ever results for the 3 months period ending December.

Posted by Iamxuewen > 2017-03-21 22:53 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Iamxuewen > 2017-03-21 22:55 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Ramada > 2017-03-21 22:59 | Report Abuse

Sour grapes.

Posted by chl1989 > 2017-03-22 01:42 | Report Abuse

fellow sifu, anyone knows why its capex / D&A are so freaking high?
capex > 200% of its net profit
D&A about 100% of its net profit
for the past 5 years. WHY? is it nature of this broiler business?

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2017-03-22 03:52 | Report Abuse

if past is an indication, maintenance capex would already eaten up 50% of the operating cash flow. CAB's full capex is likely to continue exceed profit due to aggressive expansion. The thesis here is simple, these growth are good but how good? A bigger CAB is good if they can improve their return, or else it will be like an obese person taking in too much unhealthy calories.

Posted by gogogogo > 2017-03-22 08:26 | Report Abuse

like that gogogo lo

Posted by IamGoogle > 2017-03-22 08:39 | Report Abuse

Winners see golden opportunities, lossers see nothing.

Posted by IamGoogle > 2017-03-22 08:42 | Report Abuse

I have been wondering why market gave QL so high valuation since many years back, I didn't understand & I was loser then.

I hope WealthWizard can enlighten me how he can see things differently & I trust he will share with us the true trade secrets of this CAB, like what he did for Mycron & Ekovest

Posted by IamGoogle > 2017-03-22 08:44 | Report Abuse

WealthWizard not only look at figures but he is also talking like a business man & pointed out the business advantages & strengths of a company, very much look forward for that

Posted by IamGoogle > 2017-03-22 08:48 | Report Abuse

If anyone see what CAB did for capex but never realised on what is the outcome of capex spent, then it is just too narrow in analysing in figures, never see a bigger picture. NTA is increasing & EPS too.

Posted by supersaiyan3 > 2017-03-22 08:57 | Report Abuse

Well written indeed.

For me, this writing raises a lot of questions, which i need to look deeper.

The Poultry industry has been in a difficult position in the past two years. I expect this year to be even worse. How on earth CAB is able to earn so much while others all lose money? That's an interesting question....

Posted by VenFx > 2017-03-22 09:00 | Report Abuse

Try to look into the dynamic and inorganically pottential within the industry . This is how winner born and flapping wings .
my view is, CAB ready for any opportunity ahead.

Posted by moneySIFU > 2017-03-22 09:01 | Report Abuse

I agreed one point, a true bisinessman can overcome the difficulties in a very tough business environment, that's what Robert Kuok did when he was in sugar business. See how the business performance when someone took over from him?

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2017-03-22 09:57 | Report Abuse

The big picture is this - if those growth capex can generate a higher return than the cost of capital then they are creating value. Compare that to the price you pay determines your return as an investor. If the return is lower than cost then it is destroying value, which will ultimately square against your buy price too, which if low enough, will still make you money; high enough, then opposite happens.

Stories that contain words like capable, prudent, moat, monopoly etc - you still have to translate them into numbers. Einstein can tell you the wonderful universe, he still need turn it into one math equation E=MC2. No one can do valuation base on stories, I can't, maybe you can.

So here's my take, at current price, if CAB can continue to earn $55 mil profit and current revenue till the end of time with 50% reinvestment, I would value it at 300-350 mil for 10% require return. The remaining 150-200 mil (EV=510 mil) will come from future value creation. So it is for you to figure out how many birds are in the bush

Posted by VenFx > 2017-03-22 10:03 | Report Abuse

if a Doctor say , dying probability of doing an operation is 1% ...
But, along time over without the surgery in 14 Days 100% die will u do the operetion ?

CAB has far more time and resource to raise the Bar in its field.

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2017-03-22 10:13 | Report Abuse

If you are talking about my body, yes I would do the operation given the probability because I'm not Ghost in the Shell, I can't swap my body.

In investment I don't need to swing because I have a choice. As long you have done your independent judgement, not swayed by the price movement, then you have done your job as an investor.

Posted by IamGoogle > 2017-03-22 10:13 | Report Abuse

That's the reason Ricky talk too details & no general public can easily understand his comments. That's the general behaviour of very smart people, do something or talk something until no one understand.

Posted by IamGoogle > 2017-03-22 10:15 | Report Abuse

I have never seen any business friends talk technical things like what Ricky did, except my accountant & merchant banker friends