I see that this analysis is purely based on Mean reversion with very realistic gross margins. Who knows what is the true margin potential of CRC makers?
Guess they have not had a chance to show their true colors.
FutureEyes, you could have used throughput of 19,500 (for Dec16) and 15,500 (for Mar17) for Choo Bee tube segment. This way, the selling prices would be exactly like reported UOB Kay Hian.
The gross margins would be 500 and 850 for Dec16 and Mar17 respectively. But, in any case their difference is still considerable = RM350 instead of RM417!
Thus, Mycron's tube segment can definitely improve as per your assumption of RM100/ton.
The figures for Mycron are very accurate. I wanted Choo Bee's gross margin for Dec16 to be somewhat closer to Mycron's tube segment and thus used 18,000.
But you are right I could have used the figures you had mentioned.
all others depends on the future trend of selling price and the time lag effects on the cost of raw material / inventory...the margin direction is uncertain.
for Mycron, the gross margin has to expand - there is only one clear direction.
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Posted by probability > 2017-05-21 13:31 | Report Abuse
lots of information here...guess Mycron's Tube sales still have 50% room to grow!