Posted by supersaiyan3 > 2017-06-07 12:00 | Report Abuse

Just say your analysis is weak.

Posted by Redstart > 2017-06-07 12:20 | Report Abuse

Love to see a different viewpoint but can only respond if you share your own views. Maybe you can post one of your own to counter the points. Who knows, you may be right. But broad view, we know what we are looking at now.

Posted by supersaiyan3 > 2017-06-08 00:23 | Report Abuse

Its your logic that is problematic.

1. The last time "this" happened - oil prices collapsed. What is "this"? Your title implies a causal relationship which doesn't make sense at all.

2. The period you highlighted, it just shows a weaker correlation between the X rate and oil prices, other factors influencing the two, that's all.

3. The remaining parts of essay, strength of USD, commodity blah blah blah, is just something else unrelated.

In my opinion, near term another collapse is just coming around the corner. For the last 10 years, China economy is powering the whole World's economy. The engine is losing steam now. The kicker of the next crisis is the "one belt one road" thing, which is draining up China's capital, rapidly. Energy will be cheap, transport will be revolutionalise with the introduction of ZPE.

Posted by Redstart > 2017-06-08 15:39 | Report Abuse

I think you might be confusing simple with problematic/wrong. This article focuses on trend and correlation. Its pretty simple to compare, if you use any charts, you can easily see the period when they didn't have an inverse relationship and notice what happened next.

Its going to be hard to counter your 2nd argument, cause you changed the narrative. If I was talking about macroeconomic conditions, then we could have a fruitful discussion. However, the article only focuses on trend and correlation and if indeed it does follow historical situations, then you should look for stocks that typically trend in the direction you think it will go.

So I can't respond to that, cause thats not what I am presenting. But based on the context of what I have written, it not illogical. Depends if a reader buy into it or not. But don't mistake it as being wrong/problematic unless within the same context, you can provide a different view - maybe i'll buy your argument if its better.