Posted by probability > 2017-10-22 22:46 | Report Abuse

agree...since its already profitable, competition for market share will ensure price remains low...

rigs are plenty..just waiting to be restarted..it takes only a few days

its like you want to raise the water level of a river nearby an ocean at the tributary...no mater how much heavy rain pour..level can barely rise unlike a river at the upstream.

now where can the margin rise?

its where the cost of investment and start up is huge..it take years before you can commercially produce...

that is refinery

one or two big refinery failure will cause a spike on the Crack Spread globally
a single blockage at your renal tubes..will cause your blood pressure hit the roof!

Posted by Artemis > 2017-10-22 23:42 | Report Abuse

I have a slightly different point of view that I would like to hear your responses.

1) Global oil inventory is declining although the persistence of its decline is still open to debate
2) Assuming an upward trajectory for US interest rate, capital financing will be more costly that the degree of cash flow-burning operation by shale oil producers will reduce
3) Ongoing geopolitical risk in the Middle East and the Opec "put" although the latter is rather weak in this cycle

I am not implying that crude oil price will continuously go up but rather the turn of the cycle may be close. I hope to hear your opinions and feedback including Probability's