Posted by Booyah > 2017-12-29 17:21 | Report Abuse

Where were you when the price is all time high? You can say what you want now.

Posted by limml > 2017-12-29 17:23 | Report Abuse

The company may be good but if too many people buy the shares on leverage, it may render the price fluctuates wildly due to the non-business related issue. I wonder what will happen if jaks also come under selling simultaneously?

Posted by feimah > 2017-12-29 17:25 | Report Abuse

Horse behind canon.

Posted by scanner > 2017-12-29 17:25 | Report Abuse

Firstly, HY quarterly reports are audited before it was published. Thus it EPS is not bullshit but proven otherwise the auditors may be sue by simply giving such revenue and income. Secondly, the new management team is definitely better than the previous management team which some quarters make losses. HY have completely new company with the expectation to make more money than the previous management team. China is not that stupid to invest millions without studying its investment and returns.

Posted by mamakspecial > 2017-12-29 17:28 | Report Abuse

he didnt say PE 30 LA...he said RM32 LA...AT PE 10...read carefully.

Posted by Whey Whey > 2017-12-29 17:31 | Report Abuse

Really horse back cannon! Why u dont come out this article when HY up? Only when HY crashed because of stupid analysis said it up too much lol!

Posted by KingsMan > 2017-12-29 17:36 | Report Abuse

Make all the money first, by 2040 HY can invest in anything it likes with all the cash in hand

Posted by SALAM > 2017-12-29 17:39 | Report Abuse

Uttered rubbish !! This is a logical correction after running uphill for so long. No one ever promoting HRC PE to be at par with NEStle/D lady/Nike/Maxis. The focus here is on EARNINGS GROWTH AND GROWTH but nothing else. Being an essential industry producing essential daily consumer necesity, a PE of 5 to 8 is not excessive which translate to a price of RM17 to RM27. Is there anything wrong when FA is so visible ?

Posted by berkshire168 > 2017-12-29 17:57 | Report Abuse

I used to respect him so much but this time really horse behind the canon.. anyway price will continue downside on Tuesday

Posted by Lexie1221 > 2017-12-29 18:04 | Report Abuse

kyy post at 28 Dec, he post at 29 Dec

Posted by Simple man > 2017-12-29 18:10 | Report Abuse

when price up.. keep quiet.. when price drop.. article out load !! LOL

Posted by kyosan > 2017-12-29 18:19 | Report Abuse

hengyuan should be compare with same industry stock, from what i understand what the writer write.

Posted by itch > 2017-12-29 19:03 | Report Abuse

This guy knows little of the refinery business. Also, as if refinery only produce products for cars. Assess a company whether it's good to invest by looking at 23 years from today?

Posted by cstanmyinvest > 2017-12-29 19:08 | Report Abuse

Hengyuan has gone up from RM11 in early December and closed at RM17.96 on 28th December. Today it corrected to RM15.94. The 11% correction from yesterday closing price is a very healthy correction. It will find its base next week before further upside. If Q4 result is as good as Q3 ( possible because of sustained high crack spread above $10 in Q4, inventory gain from higher brent oil price and better RM/USD foreign exchange rate), its 2017 EPS will be RM3.60. AT RM21.00, it will be trading at PER of less than 7 ( nobody asking for PER of 30) Is this very farfetched ?

Posted by cheoky > 2017-12-29 19:18 | Report Abuse

True also oh. Don't compare consumer to refinery. Compare refinery to refinery. That is the mistake of kyy. But still cheap le comparatively. So Felicity can buy on this basic? Cracks n crude oil closing at end of Dec should be higher than Sept oh. Buy, sell or hold.

Posted by Lexie1221 > 2017-12-29 19:20 | Report Abuse

Guys, this article was forwarded by Tan KW, and the author actually post on today morning 7.35am you can see at here http://www.intellecpoint.com/

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2017-12-29 19:24 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by bluebiznet > 2017-12-29 19:39 | Report Abuse

i have to agree with felicity this time, indeed!

Posted by Tom > 2017-12-29 19:41 | Report Abuse

只有一个解决方法......
kyy需要和xxxxxx合作，进行完美计划
买1送2，再1拆2，送warrants，公司大方的派股息

Posted by Tom > 2017-12-29 19:52 | Report Abuse

假如xxxxx无视kyy，那么你们就要保重了.....因为这支股会被kyy玩烂

Posted by pjseow > 2017-12-29 19:54 | Report Abuse

I do agree that Hengyuan cannot be compared with Nestle and Dutch Lady which gets PE of 30x. But KYY did not say he expect Hengyuan to have a PE of 30x . He is just expecting a PE of 10x ( 1/3 of 30 ) . Is PE of 10 x too much to ask for for HY which made 117 sen in 2015, 113 sen in 2016 and more than 310 sen in 2017 ?? Look at some stocks like Penta , JHM which are small caps companies compared with HY . These companies were losing money or has no profits from 2010 till 2014 . Like HY , they started to make money from 2015 onwards with record profits in 2017. Both stocks had a PE of more than 25 now . Markets are betting on the growth of automotive and semicon related growth . Why cant HY be given a PE of just 8 ( 1/3 ) of Penta and JHM PE and bet on the strong crack spread of oil refinery ???

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2017-12-29 20:05 | Report Abuse

One thing you learn is you cannot talk logic or reasoning when people are under the state of euphoria. They will buy any story to justify their decisions, even as dumb as concluding China men are great. As if that has anything to do with analyzing business.

Posted by mneo > 2017-12-29 20:05 | Report Abuse

Weak arguements and poor write up .... the economic moat examples referred are bad ... should at least use TNB, Genting etc ... cyclical earnings may refer to Shell past earnings record history... however the writer choose to ignore the fact of the super earning performance achieved upon the change of management .... this is the key reason why so many people buy HengYuan today... HengYuan management gives confidence to people... it is normal to have up and down in stock price ... nonetheless this is a bad article to share as the arguement points are not substantiated... very disappointed with the writer....

Posted by stockraider > 2017-12-29 20:06 | Report Abuse

REMEMBER IN THIS WORLD THEY MUST HAVE A STANDARD BASIS OF COMPARISON IN EVERYTHING MAH...!!

TAKE YOUR BELOVED SON...AS A GOOD PARENT DO U ADVICE HIM IN HIS FUTURE CAREER & WHAT HE WANT TO BE LEH ??

SHOULD YOUR SON CHOSE THE FOLLOWING CAREER LEH ?

1. DOCTOR EARNINGS RM 25K A MTH
2. BEST CHOW KIAU TIAW HAWKER TAKING OVER FROM FATHER RM 30K PER MTH.
3. TEACHER EARNS RM 7K A MTH
4. ACCOUNTANT RM 16K A MTH
5. NIGHT JAGA RM 2K PER MTH
6. TECHNICIAN RM 8K A MTH
7. LAWYER RM 12K PER MTH
8. BUSINESSMAN RM 40K PER MTH
9. CLERK RM 3K PER MTH

OF COURSE WHOEVER UR SONS WANTS TO BE, DEPENDS ON HIS ABILITY, INTEREST BESIDE THE MONETARY BENEFIT.
ASK YOURSELF WHETHER U WANT UR SON BECOME HAWKER EARNS RM 30K A MONTH V DOCTOR RM 25K OR ACCOUNTANT YOUR LIKELY INCLINATION IS STILL DOCTOR AND ACCOUNTANT.

NOW ASK YOURSELF IF UR SON BECOME A JAGA OR CLERK EARNS RM 2K V HAWKER EARNS RM 30K, ALOT OF U MAY JUST WANT TO BE SETTLE FOR HAWKER LOH...!!

THIS HOW PE COMPARISON IS DERIVE LOH & IT IS SAME AS SALARY COMPARISON IN SELECTING UR SON CAREER MAH...!!

C'mon Hengyuan is no Nestle, Dutch Lady - felicity

Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Fri, 29 Dec 2017, 04:27 PM

Friday, December 29, 2017
Ads by ZINC

Don't be misled, Hengyuan is no Nestle, Dutch Lady, BAT. Not even Oldtown. It is not even Top Glove or Hartalega or Airasia. Hengyuan is Not near.

In investment, the most popular word as provided by Warren Buffett is the "moat" - which means certain strength - being special i.e. in another words think of it as a brand cult aka Nike, Nestle (Milo, Nescafe), Starbucks, Google, Facebook. In those companies, we do not even look at NTA value.

What is Hengyuan? Before the rapid share rise - less than 10% in Malaysia I guarantee would not even heard of the name. It has a 10 year supply contract with Shell. Luckily, at this moment due to global oil supply constraint, margins for refineries (oil processing) has gone sky high. That is in playing cyclical stocks, and one gets lucky or may not through luck but perhaps some level of manipulation these stocks goes up. Sometimes certain companies may see profit performance goes up but the share price does not rise the same.

A Nestle or Dutch Lady has sustainability. They can control their own destiny. They can control supply i.e. in Nestle's case milk, coffee beans, cocoa and put back the price control into the market i.e. consumers like you and I. Companies like Nike for example may price their products much higher than a much lesser branded goods, but they still sell. There are still people who buys.

Hence, companies like Hengyuan will not get the 30x PE. This is crazily manipulative. Nike, Nestle, Dutch Lady, Maxis can get the 30x PE.

30x PE means one is preparing to pay the price now and profits stays the same for 30 years, we will get back our money from this investment. As much as oil and gas refineries are a decent business, imagine this! By 2040, many cars will be much much more fuel efficient or even using electric. This is a clear and present danger in investing in refineries although I have put my money into Petron. This is probably why Shell sold off its refineries - so that they can reuse the funds to focus onto areas which they think it better for their growth. If it is 30x PE, they would not sell.

Hengyuan is not Shell. It is part of the oil and gas value chain and happens to be at this time refineries are doing well. Cyclical and it does not last.

A person who claims to have build IJM should understand that concept.

THEREFORE U MUST UNDERSTAND PE COMPARISON CAN BE USED ACROSS THE BROAD INDUSTRY WITH LITTLE BIT OF ADJUSTMENT....IT SERVE AS IMPORTANT GUIDE IN YOUR ASSESSMENT LOH...!!

IN CONCLUSION LOW PE IS GENERALLY BETTER THAN HIGH PE AND SAME PRINCIPLE OF HIGHER INCOME EARN PER MTH IS BETTER THAN A LOWER INCOME EARN PER MTH LOH...!!

SO PLEASE DO NOT MISLEAD URSELF THAT PE CANNOT BE USED TO COMPARE ACROSS INDUSTRY LOH...!!

Posted by stockraider > 2017-12-29 20:19 | Report Abuse

THOSE WHO SAYS PE COMPARISON...CANNOT COMPARE ACROSS BROAD INDUSTRY IS TALKING CRABS LOH....!!

PE IS ONE OF THE IMPORTANT COMMON INVESTMENT INDICATOR LOH...!!

JUST LIKE U COMPARE HAWKER RM 30K EARNS V DOCTOR RM 25K EARNS, U STILL PICK DOCTOR DESPITE LOWER EARNS...BCOS U FINE TUNE UR SALARY COMPARISON TO GIVE DOCTOR HIGHER RATING MAH...!!

ON THE OTHERHAND HAWKER EARNS RM 30K V CLERKS RM 3K...U PICK HAWKER BCOS U FELT THAT THE GAP BETWEEN HAWKER RM 30K AND CLERK RM 3K IS TOO WIDE FOR U TO SELECT CLERK EVEN U FINE TUNE UR PICKS LOH...!!

THIS IS PRECISELY HOW WE USE PE COMPARISON WHEN WE COMPARE HENGYUAN, NESTLE, DLADY, TOPGLOVES ETC LOH....!!

IT ALWAYS THE SAME... U NEED TO COME UP WITH COMMON COMPARISON FACTORS AND DO ADJUSTMENT ACCORDINGLY LOH...!!

Posted by Cockrider > 2017-12-29 20:21 | Report Abuse

U MUST UNDERSTAND MAH....!!
ALOT OF PEOPLE BUY INTO BJC RM 0.50 & ABOVE, STUCKED FOR MANY YEARS & WANT TO URGENTLY TO GET OUT LOH...!!
THATS WHY THERE ARE MANY SELLERS BUT IT CLEARING LOH...!!

MARGIN OF SAFETY INVESTMENT CONSIST OF VALUATION BASE ON EARNINGS BASIS AND BASED ON ASSETS BASIS LOH...!!

ONCE ALL SELLER SUPPLIES IS TAKEN OUT IT CAN FLY LOH....!!
THATS WHY DRB FLY LOH...!!

ALSO MUCH REMEMBER YESTERDAY THE STOCK SHOW NEGATIVE EPS, TODAY AND FUTURE, IT MAY SHOW STRONG EARNINGS TOO LOH...!!

U NEED TO IDENTIFY THIS KIND OF STOCK LOH....!!

BJC IS THIS KIND OF STOCK BASED ON RAIDER RESEARCH LOH...!!

Posted by Lexie1221 > 2017-12-29 20:25 | Report Abuse

LOL

Posted by mneo > 2017-12-29 20:31 | Report Abuse

Papaya... have you ever ask yourself why Shell can not achieve the same performance as HengYuan? Because Shell is unlucky for the past decades?

Posted by gladiator > 2017-12-29 22:26 | Report Abuse

This article is so stupid. kyy who build IJM already know that Hengyuan is no Nestle, Dutch Lady, BAT. Not even Oldtown. Thats why kyy said in his article Dutch Lady PE30, BAT PE18, Nestle PE34 and Heng Yuan only PE10, I repeat Heng Yuan only PE10. felicity obviously trying to show that he is smarter than kyy without reading kyy article properly. Why? Cause he choose petron over hengyuan and he is so wrong http://www.intellecpoint.com/2017/07/

Posted by Seek > 2017-12-29 23:09 | Report Abuse

Good if OTB can give his view.
Close near his 15.50 TP!
Congrats.

Posted by Decken > 2017-12-29 23:16 | Report Abuse

This guy Tan KW talks as if he is God. I do not believe any us here would hold Heng Yuan for 23 years. Also by 2040, he would be 6' under while his son enjoying his money

Posted by stockraider > 2017-12-29 23:21 | Report Abuse

NOT TRUE LOH...TO BE FAIR WHEN U INVEST U LIKE OR PREFER IT TO BE ETERNITY MAH...!!

BUT HE WRONGLY ASSESS THE IMPORTANCE OF PE COMPARISON ACROSS INDUSTRY LOH...!!

ALSO THE TRANSFORMATION OF BUSINESS LOH...!!
JUST TAKE DUPONT, IBM THE BUSINESS HAS TRANSFORMED OVER FEW HUNDRED YRS LOH....!!

Posted by Decken > Dec 29, 2017 11:16 PM | Report Abuse

This guy Tan KW talks as if he is God. I do not believe any us here would hold Heng Yuan for 23 years. Also by 2040, he would be 6' under while his son enjoying his money

Posted by PotentialGhost > 2017-12-30 00:26 | Report Abuse

Hengyuan oil can drink , what you know?

Posted by PotentialGhost > 2017-12-30 00:29 | Report Abuse

Hengyuan oil can package like cocacola , can drink

Posted by stockraider > 2017-12-30 00:51 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by bluebiznet > 2017-12-30 00:56 | Report Abuse

恶灵易发 i like you name

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2017-12-30 08:49 | Report Abuse

Someone don't understand petrol = many companies, coca cola literally means only 2 companies

Posted by Lyo82 > 2017-12-30 12:03 | Report Abuse

The thing I see is that KYY is using his influence to hard sell HY. Yes HY is doing fantastic at the moment, but comparing it to brand names like Nestle, Dutchlady, Panasonic... Well,I can imagine a rosy picture appears in everyone's mind. Good luck to all the late comer in HY.

Posted by Alex™ > 2017-12-30 12:45 | Report Abuse

yeah, shell is no 30x company. Make it 3x. Kasih shell petrol station close shop dia. Petronas > all.

Posted by kelvin61 > 2017-12-30 13:02 | Report Abuse

I think HY's performance for 2017 will be a record EPS. This is a given based on Q4 crack spread margins and 9-mth EPS of 241.89. So, we are all talking about historical data that is more or less public knowledge to most savvy investors. The challenge is for HY to continue to perform in 2018 and thereafter. This is a cyclical business. You can't pass on your increase cost to the consumers. It is also a known fact that 2018 will be a challenging year for HY where there will be a long shutdown in 2nd half 2018 to upgrade to Euro4M Mogas. So, 2018's performance is not expected to match 2017.

Savvy investors buy or sell ahead based on their assumption what HY will be able to make. Furthermore, HY will not be able to frank any dividend due to their net debt position currently and the funds required for the up-coming upgrade.

We are not comparing apple with apple when we say Nestle, Dutch Lady, BAT, etc. are being afforded very high PE compared to HY because they are cash rich, pays good dividend yearly and their business is more efficient as they are able to pass on higher cost to consumers and therefore maintain their profitability and growth. So, the answer why HY is selling at single digit PE is there for you. You can't expect someone to cough out so much money without knowing what his return will be except that HY will continue to make this high EPS in the future and the share price will keep going up to at least 10 times PE; and hopefully frank out some dividends or reward shareholders with bonus shares. Remember HY's business structure is very different from Nestle, Dutch Lady, BAT, etc.

Just my 2 cents worth, cheers.

Posted by mneo > 2017-12-30 14:44 | Report Abuse

C'mon Hengyuan is no Shell either..... It is much better than Shell..... :-)

Posted by stockraider > 2017-12-30 16:41 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by tftey > 2017-12-30 18:06 | Report Abuse

Your view is valid only if KYY asking for PE 30. Anyway PE 8 to 10 is reasonable for HY which would translate to TP about RM 30.

Posted by PotentialGhost > 2017-12-30 19:15 | Report Abuse

I wan to drink hengyuan oil , hope hengyuan make a softdrink sell his oil to hyper market , then I can buy it

Posted by itch > 2017-12-30 19:17 | Report Abuse

Nothing can be further than the truth that HY earnings are fantastic and its PE still very attractive... the rest are mere theories.

Posted by 3iii > 2017-12-31 08:42 | Report Abuse

3iii >>>>gladiator This article is so stupid. kyy who build IJM already know that Hengyuan is no Nestle, Dutch Lady, BAT. Not even Oldtown. Thats why kyy said in his article Dutch Lady PE30, BAT PE18, Nestle PE34 and Heng Yuan only PE10, I repeat Heng Yuan only PE10. felicity obviously trying to show that he is smarter than kyy without reading kyy article properly. Why? Cause he choose petron over hengyuan and he is so wrong http://www.intellecpoint.com/2017/07/
29/12/2017 22:26<<<<


This is so stupid.

Hengyuan's earnings are highly volatile.

Tell us his estimate of Hengyuan's normalised earnings.

Otherwise, using PE multiple to its present non-normalised, non-sustainable earning is just a load of crap for this company.

Posted by 3iii > 2017-12-31 08:44 | Report Abuse

A company with earnings of X and has a PE of 5 maybe still the most expensive company.

Why?

Its normalised sustainable earning is actually X/5 and thus, though its PE is 5 based on today's earnings, its actual projected PE is 25x.

Posted by chantp88 > 2017-12-31 11:50 | Report Abuse

you can see that the earning are not consistent every quarter. to annualised based a good quarter can be misleading...

Posted by sunztzhe > 2017-12-31 22:39 | Report Abuse

HengYuan is now a component stock in MSCI Malaysia Small Cap Index. The market has been re-rating HengYuan price upward indicating than HRC deserves a higher PE multiple relative to its historical price.

HengYuan had languished in sideways mode for about 30 years since 1987. It's share price easily broke out of its old high of RM 12.30 ( registered OH since Sept 23, 2005) on Dec 13, 2017. After it broke out of it's old high effortlessly, HRC has continued on its strong uptrend in both big and short time frame. It closed at RM 16.30 last Friday , chalking a impressive gain of +32% since Dec 13, 2017. 

The chart shows HengYuan is a strong uptrending momentum stock.It took HengYuan slightly over 12 years to break out of its old high of RM 12.30. The driver for the strong share price performance is the stellar earnings chalked up during the 3 quarters of 2017. The strong momentum is indicating that upcoming Q4R 2017 due in Feb 2018 will be impressive too. 

Based on its closing price of 16.30 and a prospective EPS 2017 of RM3.6 per share, HRC is commanding a PE of only 4.528. Its regional peers are commanding a PE multiple higher than 10, much higher than HengYuan. An expectation of the market re-rating HRC towards PE8 to PE10 in line with its local n regional peers is reasonable n moreover HRC is now a MSCI Malaysia Small Cap index component. 

As we enter 2018, its risk on for equities meaning PE multiples for equities in general will move higher. Besides crack spread is expected to remain favourable in 2018 and with a slight upside bias of crude oil price in 2018, it will likely translate into higher absolute net profit value for HRC implying higher EPS. High chance we will likely be looking at potentially a future price range of RM 25 to RM 36 for HRC. The recent correction last Friday accords an excellent opportunity for a "risk on trade with HengYuan" due to its relative undemanding valuation vs its peers.

Posted by stockraider > 2018-01-01 21:59 | Report Abuse

THATS WHY U MUST FOLLOW B GRAHAM THEORY OF MR MARKET AND MR VALUE LOH......!!

DO NOT LET MR MARKET INFLUENCE U LOH....!!
IF IN DOUBT THIS, PLS TAKE ADVICE FROM MR VALUE MAH...!!

IF U R AFFECTED....BY MR MARKET, U CANNOT BE A VALUE INVESTOR LOH...!!

HENGYUAN PE 5X COMPARE PETDAG PE 20X...THERE IS A VERY BIG GAP LOH..!!

HENGYUAN PE 5X V NESTLE PE 40X ANOTHER VERY VERY BIG GAP LOH..!!

WHY COMPARING PE HENGYUAN V NESTLE RELEVANT WHEN THEY ARE IN DIFFERENT INDUSTRY LEH ??

RAIDER ALREADY MENTIONED ,THAT U CAN COMPARE ANYTHING BASED ON PE WITH A COMMON PLATFORM WITH SOME ADJUSTMENT LOH...!!

THE OTHER THING COMPARING HENGYUAN V NESTLE IS VERY RELEVANT, BCOS HENGYUAN HAS THE HIGHEST EPS RM 3.10 IN KLSE , WHEREAS NESTLE HAS THE 2ND HIGHEST EPS RM 2.57 IN KLSE LOH..!!

PLEASE BEAR IN MIND , HENGYUAN BESIDE PE 5X V NESTLE PE 40X, HAVE A HIGHER EPS AGAINST NESTLE LOH...!!
THATS WHY RERATING OF HENGYUAN PE TO HIGHER LEVEL IS IMMINENT MAH...!!

HENGYUAN IS THE TRUE CHAMPION MAH....!!