Posted by stockraider > 2018-04-16 10:55 | Report Abuse

AGREE LOH...IF THE OWNER CAN MAKE RM 3.03 EPS....EVEN HIGHER THAN EPS OF NESTLE, DEFINITELY BRILLIANT MAH....!!


All the while Shandong Hengyuan had only one objective....to expand their refined products market abroad...

To capture Shell Retails markets....the 600 Million investment to acquire the PD refinery was peanuts.

It was definitely a prudent investment to gain big chunk of foreign market share of retail products consumption for 10 years.

These Chinaman is indeed Brilliant. Totally Brilliant.

Posted by stockraider > 2018-04-16 11:01 | Report Abuse

WHY NEED TO SO HURRY FOR UPGRADES LEH ??

TAKE UR TIME PLAN MAH....!!

HENGYUAN IS WELL AHEAD OF PETRON AND PETRONAS IN COMPLYING THE EURO REQUIREMENT.

FURTHERMORE, THE GOVT HAD NOT EVEN OFFICIALLY FINALISE THE STANDARD FOR EURO 5 REQUIREMENT MAH....!!

This explains exactly why they are in no hurry for the Upgrade..
as the main income is not expected from the value additions of the refining alone.

RUBBISH LOH...THE CHAIMAN MENTIONED IT COST MORE FOR THEM TO MAKE & CHINA & TRANSPORT HERE LOH...!!
Its how they can sell their refined products from China here (which are already Euro 4 and Euro 5 compliance) and selling much cheaper than other south east asian competitors.

ENTERING TRADING BCOS THEY WANT HAS ALTERNATIVE BESIDE FROM SHELL AS A SUPPLIER FOR CRUDE THE PARENT CAN PROVIDE TOO, SOURCE THE CHEAPEST SOURCE THE BEST PRACTISE MAH...!!
This is all line with recent news that come out saying entering trading business and they need some capital for that.

Posted by Tom > 2018-04-16 11:03 | Report Abuse

tanJung rambutan leader-stockraider
lol

Posted by stockraider > 2018-04-16 11:08 | Report Abuse

ON DIV...BIG DIV WILL BE COMING SOON....WAIT FOR THE AGM, AS THEY HAVE TAKEN IN SSLEE PROPOSE RESOLUTION LOH...!!

Also it explains the 2 cent dividend very well. As the transfer price the PD refinery received to add margin to sell to Shell retails would be barely justifying it....

YES SHANDONG MAKE ALOT OF MONIES...IT IS BCOS THEY INVESTED IN VERY PROFITABLE HENGYUAN LOH...!!
ON TRANSFER PRICING, DON DREAM LOH....THE INLAND REVENUE WILL GO AFTER U ESPECIALLY U R FOREIGN MAJORITY OWN LOH...!!
The major bulk of the profit goes to Shandong China refinery (in China) who has a secured buyer (in Malaysia) at Transfer Price mechanism...


REMEMBER WHAT THE CHINAMAN CHAIRMAN SAYS LEH ??

"REMEMBER THE CHINAMAN CHAIRMAN TOLD RAIDER, THAT HE IS NOT INTERESTED ALL THOSE MKT THING LIKE BONUS ISSUE LOH...HE JUST WANT HENGYUAN TO OPERATE EFFICIENTLY AND MAKE GOOD PROFITS AND PAYS GOOD DIV TO REWARD SHAREHOLDERS LOH...!!"

THUS BUYING BACK SHARE EVEN IT IS CHEAP, IS NOT THEIR BUSINESS OBJECTIVE, THEY WILL LEAVE IT TO THE MKT LOH...!!

THATS WHY KYY BENEFITED AND TO SOME EXTENT RAIDER BENEFITED TOO LOH....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2018-04-16 11:16 | Report Abuse

YES CANGGIH WISE... HENGYUAN NO WAY TO COMPETE WITH RM 64 BILLION REFINERY OF PETRONAS LOH...!!
HENGYUAN ONLY SPEND RM 700 MILLION UPGRADE LOH...!!

THE QUESTION IS R WE DOING BUSINESS LEH ??
IF THE ANS IS YES....THEN U TELL ME SPEND RM 64 BILLION CAN COMPETE WITH RM 700M AH ??
AS A DESCENDANT OF CHINESE CONSIDER VERY GOOD BUSINESSMAN, LOGIC TELL ME HENGYUAN WILL DO WELL LOH...!!

IF U INVEST RM 64 BILLION...YOUR DEPRECIATION ALONE AT 10% WILL COST U, RM 6.4 BILLION PA....THAT IS EVEN BIGGER THAN HENGYUAN WHOLE MKT CAP MAH..!!
HENGYUAN SPEND RM 700M, DEPRECIATION PA ONLY RM 70M, VERY ECONOMICAL LOH....!!

BUSINESS SENSE, U CANNOT USE A ROLLS ROYCE TO COMPETE WITH A MYV AS A TAXI LOH....!!

Hengyuan refining technology is so old and inefficient it will be barely able to compete with the margins achieveable by the latest state of the art technology refineries from China and like the new RAPID refinery which can even handle Saudi/Dubai crude.

Dubai crude is at a discount of almost 4USD/brl againts Brent...

they can easily wipe out HY margins achievable using Brent.

China refineries uses Saudi/Dubai Crudes which are very much sour and heavier thus selling very cheap against Brent.

Posted by stockraider > 2018-04-16 11:26 | Report Abuse

YES CRACK SPREAD DROP BUT IT DROP USD RM O.90, WHERE GOT USD 3.00 LIKE CONMAN PROBABILITY CLAIM LEH ??

AT THE CURRENT CRACK SPREAD STILL COMFORTABLE LOH...!!


Hengyuan refinery is relative new, compare with Petron with the last upgrade in 2013 compare with petron 1999, on top of that Hengyuan refinery take in multiple type of crude thus offer them to capture margin loh....!!
Even compare to Petronas, it can matched Melaka plant which is the most modern plant own by Petronas loh..!!

The crack margin for 1st qtr 2018 average about USD 8 per barrel , thus it is expected hengyuan will do reasonably well, bearing in mind crack spread for the whole 2017 the best record yr is also about usd 8 per barrel loh...!!

However the crack margin of 2nd qtr, for the mth of apr is expected to taper off slightly about usd 0.9 per barrel...that may affect q2 result in 2018 slightly....but then q2 of 2017 is also not a good qtr anyway for hengyuan in 2017, as the crack spread was only usd 6 mah....!!

Going fwd with the strong cashflow generation, it is expected the cash position of hengyuan for 2018, will improve tremendously going fwd loh...!!


QUIZ NO.2......

CRACK SPREAD drop by 3 USD/brl last week compared to average of 2017.
anyone CARE & DARE to find out the implications on EPS going forward?

RAIDER COMMENT,
DON FORGET,AT THE CURRENT PRICE DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN BRENT V WTI IS USD 5 PER BARREL, THERE IS HUGE POTENTIAL FOR HENGYUAN TO GAIN HERE FOR BETTER MARGIN LOH..!!

Posted by stockraider > 2018-04-16 12:45 | Report Abuse

RAIDER IS NOT BULSHITING THAT HENGYUAN IS VERY EFFICIENT....LET RAIDER SSHOW U LOH....!!

BRENT MKT PRICE.............USD 72.58
ADD CRACK SPREAD............USD 7.2

THEREOTICAL SELLING PRICE..USD 79.78

THUS UR MACRO GROSS MARGIN IS ONLY 9% LOH BUT HENGYUAN GIVE U A GROSS MARGIN OF 12.6% FOR THE WHOLE YR OF 2017 MAH....!!

DON FORGET THAT HENGYUAN IN DERIVING THE GROSS MARGIN THERE ARE ADDITIONAL COST LIKE DIRECT EXPENSE, DIRECT LABOUR, DIRECT SELLING EXPENSES, SHIPPING CHARGE TO THE COST OF SALES.

WHEREAS THE ABOVE THEORY DISCLOSURE ONLY DEAL WITH BRENT CRUDE PRICE AND CRACK SPREAD MAH...!!

12.6% V 9%....THAT MEANS HENGYUAN GROSS MARGIN IS MUCH SUPERIOR LOH...!!

THE DIV CAMPAIGN BY SSLEE ASK FOR RM 0.435 DIV PER SHARE LOH...!!

IF THIS DIV IS APPROVED IN THE AGM, HENGYUAN WILL BE ABLE TO JOIN THE LEAGUE OF BLUECHIPS, WHERE A RERATING TO PE 16X....IS STILL CONSIDER BELOW NORM CONSIDERING MOST CO....HAS PE ABOVE 20X IN THIS CATEGORY LOH...!!

SURELY HENGYUAN A GOOD CO....WHEN EPS VERY GOOD MAH...!!
Remember Hengyuan average 3 yrs profit are as follow loh....!!

eps
2015......rm 1.17
2016..... rm 1.11
2017..... rm 3.03

AVERAGE 3 YR EPS PA RM 1.77 LOH....!!

WHAT DOES A RATING OF A BLUECHIPS MEANS FOR HENGYUAN ??
THAT MEANS MIN PE 12X LOH....!!
WITH CONSERVATIVE EPS RM 2.00 PE 12X = TP RM 24.00 LOH...!!

Posted by stockraider > 2018-04-16 13:02 | Report Abuse

WHERE CAN ??
HENGYUAN CHAIRMAN IS THE BLUE EYE BOY OF PRESIDENT XI MAH...!!

WHERE HE WILL ROB LEH ??

PRESIDENT XI DON LIKE CORRUPTION AND ABUSE OF POWER MAH...!!

UNDERSTAND ??

HENGYUAN WILL THE BEST ELITE BENCHMARK CHINA OWN CO IN KLSE LOH...!!

IT ALREADY IS THE BEST WITH EPS OF RM 3.03 EVEN HIGHER THAN NESTLE MAH..!!

Posted by titus > Apr 16, 2018 12:55 PM | Report Abuse

dragon, like that even worse loh.......meaning if gomen dun swindle u.....u also be rob by dragon descendent ah? wahh....ur clan very bad leh.

Posted by Tom > 2018-04-16 14:33 | Report Abuse

Karma will take care of manipulator kyy and his evil assistant otb

Posted by stockraider > 2018-04-22 00:50 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2018-04-22 00:50 | Report Abuse

CAN U MARK THIS....SO THAT U CAN TAKE NOTE OF PROBABILITY CON!! ...IF IT TURN OUT THAT RAIDER IS RIGHT LOH..!!

U MUST UNDERSTAND THIS LOH, AT RM 8.30....WE R NOT LOOKING EPS OF RM 3.03 LIKE IN 2017 MAH....!!

THUS THE PRICE ALREADY DISCOUNTED A LOWER EARNINGS OF HY LOH...!!
REMEMBER HY 2018 EPS RAIDER ESTIMATE ABOUT RM 2.00 LOH...!!

THIS SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUPPORT SHARE PRICE OF RM 13.00 GOING FWD LOH..!!


Posted by probability > Apr 22, 2018 12:33 AM | Report Abuse

go ahead believe raider....and dont let him go when the results shows otherwise

Posted by probability > 2018-04-22 00:53 | Report Abuse

i never con liao...
i said very unlikely...
but raider confidently saying they use WTI.

the prove will be based on refining margin calculated based on gross profit. It should increase by 4USD/brl.

If not Riader con liao!!!

Posted by stockraider > 2018-04-22 01:03 | Report Abuse

CONMAN ALWAYS PLAY WITH WORDS MAH...!!

IF WANT TO FIGHT BE DEFINITE LIKE RAIDER MAH....!!

Posted by probability > Apr 22, 2018 12:53 AM | Report Abuse

i never con liao...
i said very unlikely...
but raider confidently saying they use WTI.

the prove will be based on refining margin calculated based on gross profit. It should increase by 4USD/brl.

If not Riader con liao!!!