Posted by CharlesT > 2018-10-28 15:33 | Report Abuse

Bro probabilty...if i said basing on my 6 sense will u look me down?

Posted by Fantastico > 2018-10-28 15:34 | Report Abuse

CharlesT, I think this MNRB is value trap, I won't sailang with your reputation at stake.

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-10-28 15:35 | Report Abuse

50% is my aim lah..maybe 40% or 30% or 8%...

Posted by probability > 2018-10-28 15:35 | Report Abuse

i definitely trust your sixth sense more than qqq3's first 5 senses

Posted by CharlesT > Oct 28, 2018 03:33 PM | Report Abuse

Bro probabilty...if i said basing on my 6 sense will u look me down?

Posted by probability > 2018-10-28 15:37 | Report Abuse

i bought datasonic last Friday...dividend yield is too good..

if malaysian government completely isolate them...they can still capture middle east and african market like they had planned..

current order booking already cover half of it market cap...

meaning you are buying at less than 20 cents per share!

anyone have any comments on this corrupted baby?

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-10-28 15:39 | Report Abuse

Fantastico, i didnt sailang in mnrb with my reputation...

I only assure jon i would run away if i lose my bet with him for my guarantee rm10800 to him on 10k mnrb.

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-10-28 15:40 | Report Abuse

This is at the worst scenario if mnrb delisted at zero in one year time

Posted by Fantastico > 2018-10-28 15:40 | Report Abuse

wakakakaka okay when is your deadline for it to reach RM10800?

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-10-28 15:42 | Report Abuse

By 01 nov 2019

Posted by Fantastico > 2018-10-28 15:43 | Report Abuse

4 days hahah okay

Posted by Fantastico > 2018-10-28 15:43 | Report Abuse

dragonslayer another name for him is warrantslayer, this guy got balls of steel one

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-10-28 15:44 | Report Abuse

Friend, today is 28 oct 2018

Posted by Fantastico > 2018-10-28 15:46 | Report Abuse

oh shit i missed out 2019 wakakkaa

Posted by Flintstones > 2018-10-28 16:57 | Report Abuse

Haha. New business model on i3. Write few good articles and staret charging people money. When market is not good, many subscription business come out lah

Posted by probability > 2018-10-28 17:07 | Report Abuse

true true...young man Jon is also very smart...he wants to get tips on warrants with long expiry and selling cheap to make a killing ...

coz he has all the time to wait

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-10-28 20:09 | Report Abuse

probability... it's business sense not sixth sense.

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-10-28 21:10 | Report Abuse

If what is a stupid right issue what is a good right issue?

That is a very interesting question.

I guess, what is a good or bad right issue, often depends on the outcome a few years from now! Hahaha

However, bad outcomes can come from good decisions. And good outcome can come from bad decisions.

The only thing we can do is to improve our decision making process and let the outcome land where they may. Over a large sample size, this should do well.

Same goes for this right issue. I think we need to study why they did this right issue.

I like rights issues that are done, not because the management have fucked up, but because they are genuinely expanding the business, and see great opportunities for outstanding profit.

I don't think this is the case or MNRB. This is a credit crunch for them, not because they looking for new opportunity.

They fucked up, as simple as that.

If the management changes, along with the right issue, i think it may be a better idea.

On your offer. Haha. I cannot say if MNRB will be up or down 1 year from now. I only know over the next 10 years, the probability of MNRB being a great business is slim.

You may make some profit due to the bear ending, them potentially giving a 1 sen dividend etc, but they are so many other opportunities in the market now. That have much better prospects and are selling in same cases cheaper.

If KLSE wasn't so bearish now, with so many cheap deals. I may very well have bought some, but not when so many other companies are so cheap as well.

Some may now say the future is bright, PNB is planning to transform the company. But do note PNB does not have a track record of turning rubbish companies into top tier companies. The only thing they do, is financial engineering. Splitting up the groups etc etc in the name of shareholder value. Which is absolutely stupid to be.

If the company does not perform well as a group, why would it perform well individually, after incurring millions of consulting fees, and now having 3 BOD instead of one?

The answer, it does not. It is probably even detrimental to the company. But they do it, because they need market to tell them how rich they are. Because organisations like PNB etc have almost a ponzi like characteristic, where they have to pay out say 6% regardless of market conditions.

But if you're still keen on the bet, find me on FB or email me at meatboneteafriend@gmail.com. But given the opportunities in the market today. I'll need 15% guaranteed as well as capital protected in exchange for my opportunity cost.

We can talk more over drinks.

=====
CharlesT Jon, fyi takaful also had an insane rights issues of 7 for 5 at rm1.00 in 2003...n till now takaful is still around...posting more n more profit?

Btw how u define a rights issue is sane or insane?
28/10/2018 14:47

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-10-28 21:12 | Report Abuse

It looks cheap ish.

What is the percentage of revenue and income from middle east and african markets?

====
probability i bought datasonic last Friday...dividend yield is too good..

if malaysian government completely isolate them...they can still capture middle east and african market like they had planned..

current order booking already cover half of it market cap...

meaning you are buying at less than 20 cents per share!

anyone have any comments on this corrupted baby?
28/10/2018 15:37

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-10-28 21:36 | Report Abuse

I very proud of my results this year, compared to my previous year hahaha. My thinking is much clearer and more logical.

I don't give tips. I give research. And i think they are of good enough value. Nobody have paid for it yet (of course, lol!), but its also because they have found a better way of getting the information from me.

Demonstrate you have very clear critical thinking processes to me via messenger on fb, if we click, i'll usually try and meet the person. And when we meet for coffee and talk investments, its inevitable that we will talk about these research. As long as you ask the right questions, you will get all the answers from me.

Better yet, if i think you're really sharp or experienced, i'll get naked and explain everything to you, and my thinking process. Because i really want someone to pick holes and disagree with me.

Some people after sitting down with me for a 1 hour coffee that turns into 5 hours, and multiple meetings, decided to put some money with me.

Talk about inefficient sales process! Haha. But alot more fun though!

=====
CharlesT Is a young boy with no track record (ok ok one year made 10%+ n the second year loss more than 15%) in stock mkt but writes long essay with good england charging rm5k per tips considered sane or insane?

For those (anyone here?) Paying rm5k to his tips sane or insane?

Just wonder....
28/10/2018 14:51

Posted by KLCI Going Holland > 2018-10-28 21:43 | Report Abuse

Jon ah, if really crash, will you still have cash to buy more?

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-10-28 21:51 | Report Abuse

I have a relatively steady recession proof job. Should not be a problem.

I have credit lines ready, which is so far unused.

Probabilities are, i would be able to buy more and i would like that.

But most important, is the ability to hold. Everything is cheap now to begin with, and i paid low prices for most of my investments. The profit is already made. I just cannot count it yet.

If you look at bond indices during the 2008 crisis and just a year after. The net effect is a 3% gain. It just happened to drop 50% and then gain like 102% after that.

A crash is just an opportunity for me to make even more money through additional purchases. If your investment is bought right before and after the crash.

If my thinking turn out to be stupid beyond compare, everything go in tong sampah d.

Which is why i rather people criticize me now. If they convince me i'm stupid and wrong, can sell now straight and save money!


====
KLCI Going Holland Jon ah, if really crash, will you still have cash to buy more?
28/10/2018 21:43

Posted by probability > 2018-10-28 22:03 | Report Abuse

earlier the crash the better....but what is important to go for dividend yield counters...

coz after crash...no one knows when you will recover....it could be another 10 years...before another screw up with the world...

your share price may stand still almost permanently after a great dip...

Posted by KLCI Going Holland > 2018-10-28 22:18 | Report Abuse

Jon ah, I ask you lah, when you identified a stock to be undervalued, how much more it fall only you buy more ah?

Warren buffet also say in 2008 he bought in a bit too early liao before it bottom out, so how are you going to prevent yourself from making master Warren's mistake?

Say for example a counter way way below it's fair value liao... but still keep falling lah

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-10-28 22:29 | Report Abuse

15% guarantee? U only guarantee yr good friends 4.5% return a year woh...r u too mean to yr friends?

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-10-28 22:31 | Report Abuse

Or too demanding on me?lol

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-10-28 22:32 | Report Abuse

I hope yr good friends / investors dont come to i3 n see all these...

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-10-28 22:36 | Report Abuse

Warren still made unbelievable amounts of money on % and actual basis though.

How skillful one must be, for a "mistake" to still be so profitable!

And how many people don't even have a chance to make this mistake!

At the trough of 2008, cash percentage of portfolio is at all time high. Everybody wants to hold cash, nobody wants to buy stock despite how cheap everything was.

I understand that i cannot predict where market is going to go. I may have some opinion, but i do not allow it to affect my investing in a material way.

All i know is. If it think as an investment, its cheap enough, i will buy. If the price drop i should buy more, after checking my research again and seeing if anything have changed.

Do i actually buy more? Well depends on a few factors
1) Do i have cash?

2) What investment is it? Good net asset plays (my limit is 3%), Extremely cheap stuff (2%), Wonderful companies (3-30%).

3) What other opportunities are in the market? For example, RCECAP was fantastic when everything was overpriced. Now, its still pretty good, but i didn't buy more, because it is 30% already, and many other things have fallen to a price where its as good as an investment.

An argument could even be said that i should sell and buy others, when
i think the other is a better investment. But this is a quirk of mine.

I used to be very agile, but i found that every action i took was more emotional than logical, especially when prices fell or went up afterwards. And i couldn't really tell if it was an emotional or logical decision until a long time after the decision was made. Which makes it even more suspect.

So i decided, i will be even more careful when buying, requiring high discounts to fair value. And after i buy, i cannot sell unless there is a material detrimental change in fundamentals, or prices have gone up to a level where i don't think its as attractive as an investment.

Maybe one day, when my thinking is clearer and more experienced, i'll start selling cheap investments for even cheaper investments. But not yet i think.

So yeah. For example, MNRB, if it was this price at the start of the year, yeah, i would buy some. But this price when everything is cheap, does not look as attractive, unless CharlesT agree to guarantee capital and 15% return, with us splitting 50/50 any profit above 15%.

======
Posted by KLCI Going Holland > Oct 28, 2018 10:18 PM | Report Abuse

Jon ah, I ask you lah, when you identified a stock to be undervalued, how much more it fall only you buy more ah?

Warren buffet also say in 2008 he bought in a bit too early liao before it bottom out, so how are you going to prevent yourself from making master Warren's mistake?

Say for example a counter way way below it's fair value liao... but still keep falling lah

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-10-28 22:40 | Report Abuse

Anyway just for your info, even cpteh also managed to get more than 100 waterfish for his cohort 1 to 10 in the first 2 years..but since then till now he has zero participants since 2014 i think

U at least can write much longer essays than n dare to charge rm5000 per tips where cpteh only charge rm500 per head.

So u should be able to earn more money from the fee ( not fm the stock mkt)...also not bad lah

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-10-28 22:42 | Report Abuse

Its in essence a loan, and that is their opportunity cost.

I'm alot better than them at investment, and have a much wider view of the opportunities at hand.

My opportunity cost is therefore much higher. If i want 8%, i can just buy SPB tmr. That is 10% d.

Or even certain REITS in SG, selling below book, yielding 7% in SGD. Which is very different than RM.

Or buy a watch and sell it 3 weeks later for 10% gain.

Or borrow some money at fund societies.

This is not an investment for you or me. This is a bet. And i have to bear the risk of you disappearing. Anything can happen. I trust you, but i'm not stupid.

Which reminds me, 15% interest to be paid upfront. Haha

I will sign an agreement to hold for a minimum of a year, unless instructed to sell by you. You can close the investment anytime you want.

So if it shoots up 50% and you want close then, i'm ok.

=====
Posted by CharlesT > Oct 28, 2018 10:29 PM | Report Abuse

15% guarantee? U only guarantee yr good friends 4.5% return a year woh...r u too mean to yr friends?

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-10-28 22:43 | Report Abuse

I can get a lawyer friend to draft up the agreement and get it stamped etc.

Posted by BankNegaraMalaysia > 2018-10-28 22:46 | Report Abuse

Choivo, funds not tutup already ke? Why still accepting de now? I want join can ah? I just need to print money, kikiki

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-10-28 22:48 | Report Abuse

Aiyo i saw yr terms n condition to yr investors so i offer a much better terms to you n then u ask for much more n talk abt all these..

Yr terms to yr investor: guaranted 5% n profit sharing 60:40
My terms to you:guaranted 8% n profit sharing 50:50

N u ask for 15% guarantee..

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-10-28 22:51 | Report Abuse

I will show these comments to them.

Because it will be the fund's money (includes their investment) that is used for this arrangement.

If anything, this shows how thorough i am, along with the margin of safety i require for any trade or investment.

If i was my investor, i would be very heartened with this agreement.



You know what ill adjust it for you, above 15%. 30% profit me, 70% profit you.

If it goes up to 50% (which is your conservative estimate), ill make 25.5%, you'll make 24.5%. About an even split.

If it goes up higher than that, which in your mind it should, since 50% gain is a conservative estimate, you will make a lot more than me.

Contact me on fb if you are interested.


=====
Posted by CharlesT > Oct 28, 2018 10:32 PM | Report Abuse

I hope yr good friends / investors dont come to i3 n see all these...

Posted by BankNegaraMalaysia > 2018-10-28 22:51 | Report Abuse

CharlesT, mari liao, he sense you rich fella wakakaka

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-10-28 22:51 | Report Abuse

Anyway i kepo a bit..u entered into any agreememt with yr good friends/ investors?

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-10-28 22:53 | Report Abuse

Only the investment fund.

I did bet money with them for malaysia elections, trump, brexit, mayweather pacquiao etc. After losing 5 figures, they all stop betting with me d. And invest money instead ahahaha.

====
Posted by CharlesT > Oct 28, 2018 10:51 PM | Report Abuse

Anyway i kepo a bit..u entered into any agreememt with yr good friends/ investors?

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-10-28 22:54 | Report Abuse

Yr logic is very cute...if above 15% 30% profit yrs n 70% profit mine
If 50% profit 25.5% yrs n 24.5% yrs??

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-10-28 22:54 | Report Abuse

24.5% mine?

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-10-28 22:55 | Report Abuse

50% is not my conservative estimate lah its my aim...u very naughty n sneaky

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-10-28 22:58 | Report Abuse

Yeah. After 50% gain, you start to gain a lot more than me.

My base is 15%. 30% of 35% (50-15) is 10.5%. My capital is guaranteed.
Total is 25.5%

Your base is 0%. 70% of 35%(50-15) is 24.5%



Now if it rise 60%.

My base is 15%. 30% of 45% (50-15) is 13.5%. My capital is guaranteed. Total is :28.5%

Your base is 0%. 70% of 35%(50-15) is 31.5%


I'll be nice, transaction cost for buying and selling i eat. Hahaha

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-10-28 23:02 | Report Abuse

Haha, you know where to find me. I hope MNRB goes well for you.

Lets go get coffee, i'll tell you my favorite insurance investment in malaysia, in exchange for advice and critique from old timer like you.

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-10-28 23:03 | Report Abuse

Aiyo, then like that be my investor loh!

And make money when i make agreements like this! Hahahaha

=====
Posted by CharlesT > Oct 28, 2018 11:03 PM | Report Abuse

Very sneaky biz man.

If compare to yr terms to yr investor leh? Seems quite a big difference woh

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-10-28 23:04 | Report Abuse

Jon , frankly speaking i dont trust you loh...but still can go out for a drink lah..lets c

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-10-28 23:05 | Report Abuse

Haha alright.

meatboneteafriend@gmail.com, can email here to plan logistics.

Or if you know OTB, ask him for my number. We can whatsapp and plan logistics there.

====
Posted by CharlesT > Oct 28, 2018 11:04 PM | Report Abuse

Jon , frankly speaking i dont trust you loh...but still can go out for a drink lah..lets c

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-10-28 23:06 | Report Abuse

Becoming yr investor for 4.5% return pa meh....better invest in myself...my record for past 10 years is much higher than that woh

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-10-28 23:07 | Report Abuse

Ok lah hope to hv a kopi time with u one day in future...but hv to meet cpteh first coz he invited me several times since years ago

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-10-28 23:09 | Report Abuse

choivo....

have u check with SC whether it is permissible for you to advertise here in i3 or not?

to me....u can be charged under the Securities Industry Act......

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-10-28 23:10 | Report Abuse

True.

See how your opportunity cost higher than my investors because you're willing to spend hours studying.

They not willing mah, they rather go focus on career, family, hobbies or other thing mah.

So its either FD, Index, or me loh. Hahaha

====
Posted by CharlesT > Oct 28, 2018 11:06 PM | Report Abuse

Becoming yr investor for 4.5% return pa meh....better invest in myself...my record for past 10 years is much higher than that woh

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-10-28 23:10 | Report Abuse

don't play play with Lim Guan Eng....this is now Malaysia baru.

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-10-28 23:15 | Report Abuse

Yeah license is needed for fund management activities.

Currently, its not really a fund despite me saying so.

For large investors, i just run their account for them. And i don't charge fees. All gain all loss they keep. They just promise to keep all the money in for 3 years, and reinvest all the div.

People who give me money directly to put into fund, is more like loan or IOU, with kickers.

Just to be clear with people here. Not advertising a fund. I repeat, NOT ADVERTISING A FUND. Even if you want give money directly, ill only accept small sums.

Because my goal is to build a 5 year track record with third party certification, before i start a fund.

If cannot build good track record, aiyah, invest my own money can d.

====
Posted by qqq3 > Oct 28, 2018 11:09 PM | Report Abuse

choivo....

have u check with SC whether it is permissible for you to advertise here in i3 or not?

to me....u can be charged under the Securities Industry Act......