Posted by Choivo Capital > 2018-12-07 01:58 | Report Abuse

I've read through it again, don't see any problems.

Its more conservative than most. But that's margin of safety for you. Especially since i'm not from a power background or had experience auditing power utilities.

My thought process. Not yours.

Keep up the criticism though!

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-07 02:00 | Report Abuse

Choivo Capital > Dec 7, 2018 01:58 AM | Report Abuse

I've read through it again, don't see any problems.
===========

just admit its all guess work....just like I buy and sell also mostly guess work....

its just that u never admit its guess work even when down 50%....

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2018-12-07 02:19 | Report Abuse

In investing, certainty can be a serious problem, because it causes one not to reassess flawed conclusions.

Nobody can know or obtain all the facts. Instead, one must rely on shreds of evidence, kernels of truth, and what one suspects to be true but cannot prove.

I had a feeling i was wrong about jaks, and so i wrote it out. Every time i ask someone here or in jaks why i'm wrong.

Nobody seem to have answer, beyond it should be profitable. Govt sure guarantee. China bank not stupid.

Show me on paper, at least rough figures? Silence.

Icon would rather write 3 more articles about why people should buy, instead of just providing a simple table like the one above (which in the end is not relevant anyway, if the old man/management and my friend is right).

In the end, thank god i sit down, write, calculate and broadcast my mistake/stupidity.

And to top it off, it wasn't others who found/explained my mistake, but myself. And even funnier, it wasn't really wrong either in the end. And the funniest thing, criticism from others without even knowing the specifics of where it was wrong!!

I'm seriously considering turning off the comments section like kyy. But how to get criticism (no matter how inane) like that. Takkan stay in my own bubble meh, its not like i have all the facts.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2018-12-07 07:56 | Report Abuse

Yes you are right, mine are mostly guess work

Like you said you don't need to weigh a fat woman in order to know she is fat

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2018-12-07 08:30 | Report Abuse

Sarifah kan keep track klau pd tahun tahun akan dtg IPP ni no profit Sarifah kan report Andy to polis SC MACC for reckless in making investment not for d best interest of d shareholders failing his fiduciary duties to d shareholders

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2018-12-07 08:33 | Report Abuse

Reckless in making investment mcm FGV dan LUTH

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2018-12-07 08:37 | Report Abuse

So Andy u better pray ur team ada review IRR 12% cashflow etc secukup cukupnya mcm a responsible management wld

Tat is d assumption skrg

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2018-12-07 08:41 | Report Abuse

A valid assumption whc d courts wil find reasonable Sarifah has no doubt

Posted by boonwei98 > 2018-12-07 08:44 | Report Abuse

Jon ...don't be discourage by negative comments. I believe process is more important than results as results might be due to luck/randomness. I truly believe your method of processing info is correct. Keep it up.

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2018-12-07 08:45 | Report Abuse

Hati Sarifah jgn kau luka

Posted by Sslee > 2018-12-07 08:54 | Report Abuse

Dear Choivo Capital,
Typo error: Amend
FCF per year RM 93.635 x4.15= RM 388.59 million.
Thank

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-12-07 08:58 | Report Abuse

So Ah Jon's revised calculations: Neither a juicy deal nor a Holland deal?

"In my 60 years’ experience in the construction contracting industry, I have never seen such a juicy contract as Jaks’ power plant contract. As an independent power producer selling electricity to the Vietnamese Government at a profitable rate for 25 years.”


Just a better deal than FD??

"You will be getting a flyer on a stake of a power plant in Vietnam that will in our best case scenario, using earning estimates RM350m higher than management, that is worth RM360mil if discounted at 5%."

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2018-12-07 09:10 | Report Abuse

Oh ya Sarifah kan ada Sslee d shareholder activist sbg teman in tis Andy

As we talk Sslee is crunching d figures always cari bukti

Keep it up Sslee

Posted by godhand > 2018-12-07 09:13 | Report Abuse

the way u written how they handle debt is purely assumption.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-07 09:25 | Report Abuse

to the psycho sslee

you lost money on Jaks, none of my business
Go and jump if u want.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2018-12-07 09:43 | Report Abuse

sslee,

I am just basing off my own guess.

Or KYY figure.

Which if you want, try and twist it into postive (zero debt plus say 5%% irr).

The amount of rake hikes needed is intersting.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2018-12-07 09:43 | Report Abuse

Yes, i dont have the PPA.

So i have to make my best estimate.
===
godhand the way u written how they handle debt is purely assumption.
07/12/2018 09:13

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-07 10:28 | Report Abuse

choi....projecting IPP profits....

http://aglblog.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/No.38-Normal-Profit.pdf

I don't even understand it nor have any intention....

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-07 10:42 | Report Abuse

lurker

now it is 50 sen
everybody very smart in writing eulogy

to me....those didn't sell above 70, too late to sell
those bot recently,, look to sell around 70.

others may want to keep and fight....well, its a huge IPP, 30% of 1.2 GW is a big deal for tiny little Jaks. Market cap $ 400M......It offers huge gearing effect for shareholders of Jaks. Its a US$ 2 billion project. If it works out, rewards are tremendous.

yes, immediate horizon, there will be cashflow problems for Jaks but gearing of .25X is manageable, back to the drawing board for them.......u weight that against potential reward from balance of EPCC profits about $ 250 million, ....with NTA $ 1.50 and .25 X gearing, eulogy is too early.

at 50 sen...eulogy ? what is the point?

buying the warrants at 25 sen? don't be silly when u can buy the shares at 50 sen......

Posted by cend0l > 2018-12-07 11:07 | Report Abuse

Rubbish article. trying to manipulate market sentiment. borderline criminal.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-07 12:38 | Report Abuse

lurk

if Jaks cannot solve its cash flow problems it may have to give up some or all of this Vietnam plant to the Chinese...the minimum price would be its cost....and still the NTA is $ 1.50......

management will need to work hard...

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-07 12:41 | Report Abuse

there are ways to solve cash flow problems....1. clearly there will be people who are willing to buy some or all of its stakes in the Vietnam plant....Koreans, Japanese and Europeans are still bidding for Vietnam plants.....

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-07 12:44 | Report Abuse

by i3lurker > Dec 7, 2018 11:13 AM | Report Abuse

qqq3,

for traders and gamblers it would be worth a punt soon enough. Coming very soon.
=========

no way la....

to me....there is little risk at 50 sen....its not like market just beginning to fall....

and yes.....recency bias......if one can fight recency bias, one already is an above average trader......

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-07 12:51 | Report Abuse

no rights issue....I guarantee u....

They will have to dispose assets...including some or all of its stake Vietnam plant if terms are acceptable...actually, not bad one.....if they can arrange a sale but keep the EPCC profits which have been agreed upon...about $ 250 million remains....This share can still fly if they strike the right deal.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-07 13:08 | Report Abuse

i3lurker > Dec 7, 2018 01:02 PM | Report Abuse

my personal opinion is that the Directors will prefer to destroy Jaks rather than sell off the Vietnam IPP.
=========

crazy talk.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-07 14:38 | Report Abuse

Posted by i3lurker > Dec 7, 2018 01:21 PM | Report Abuse

PN17 coming if no action taken, Chinese like this very much.
========

crazy talk....with so much assets,, where got PN 17....?

huge positive current ratio, huge assets....where got PN17?....what concerns Jaks is not creditors/ bankers liabilities....but its own commitment for Vietnam venture.

Material Commitment
Save as disclosed below, there are no material commitments incurred or known to be
incurred by the Group that has not been provided for, which upon becoming
enforceable, may have a material impact on the financial results/position of the
Group:-
There is capital contribution contracted but not provided for in respect of shares
subscription in the joint venture, JAKS Pacific Power Limited, amounting to
approximately USD110.14 million or * RM456 million, using exchange rate of
USD1 : RM4.1405 as at 28 September 2018.

* about 30% is cash commitment, rest being EPCC profits

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-07 14:56 | Report Abuse

this young man choi worried IPP lose money....

corporate finance is worried how to complete the deal.....

u see...huge difference between book man and practical men.....

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-07 15:00 | Report Abuse

this young man choi worried IPP lose money....

corporate finance is worried how to complete the deal.....

u see...huge difference between book man and practical men.....

actually not true....previously I just keep quiet.....but even old man sifu that KC from NZ missed the main point in all his writings about Jaks......

actually old man KC not any smarter not any better than young man choi.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2018-12-07 15:00 | Report Abuse

by my calculation it works.

By kyy's it don't unless, we have rate hikes of like 3% per annum.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-07 15:03 | Report Abuse

d by qqq3 > Dec 7, 2018 12:51 PM | Report Abuse X

no rights issue....I guarantee u....

They will have to dispose assets...including some or all of its stake Vietnam plant if terms are acceptable...actually, not bad one.....if they can arrange a sale but keep the EPCC profits which have been agreed upon...about $ 250 million remains....This share can still fly if they strike the right deal.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2018-12-07 16:03 | Report Abuse

Jon, what does warren Buffett say now ? Buy or not buy ?

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-07 16:03 | Report Abuse

lurker

now it is 50 sen
everybody very smart in writing eulogy

to me....those didn't sell above 70, too late to sell
those bot recently,, look to sell around 70.

others may want to keep and fight....well, its a huge IPP, 30% of 1.2 GW is a big deal for tiny little Jaks. Market cap $ 400M......It offers huge gearing effect for shareholders of Jaks. Its a US$ 2 billion project. If it works out, rewards are tremendous.

yes, immediate horizon, there will be cashflow problems for Jaks but gearing of .25X is manageable, back to the drawing board for them.......u weight that against potential reward from balance of EPCC profits about $ 250 million, ....with NTA $ 1.50 and .25 X gearing, eulogy is too early.

at 50 sen...eulogy ? what is the point?

buying the warrants at 25 sen? don't be silly when u can buy the shares at 50 sen......

Posted by kcchongnz > 2018-12-07 16:15 | Report Abuse

Posted by qqq3 > Dec 7, 2018 03:00 PM | Report Abuse
this young man choi worried IPP lose money....
corporate finance is worried how to complete the deal.....
u see...huge difference between book man and practical men.....
actually not true....previously I just keep quiet.....but even old man sifu that KC from NZ missed the main point in all his writings about Jaks......
actually old man KC not any smarter not any better than young man choi.


Old man KC? All of us grow old. And I don't think you are younger than me.

You kept quiet? It is because you don't know much about Jaks power plan, besides shouting sailang and margin from RM150+.

I missed the main point? What point. You don't even have the faintest idea what the main point is to invest in Jaks.

How are you t compare with me? You are just thousands light years behind.

How are you comapred with Choivo?

You can't even smell his fart, although you are 40 years older and a self-claimed "accountant". Serious, you are thousand miles behind him in knowledge, experience and in humility.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2018-12-07 16:17 | Report Abuse

If not sure, don't buy.

But im a stupider version of him. So i still studying. If drop more, 1% position can lah. See what happen from there.

on the other hand, got so many other things. Really no idea ler.

This money im not sure if its for me to make or lose.

===
Posted by Icon8888 > Dec 7, 2018 04:03 PM | Report Abuse

Jon, what does warren Buffett say now ? Buy or not buy ?

Posted by Shinnzaii > 2018-12-07 16:21 | Report Abuse

coal demand already shortage in vietnam and causing coal thermal power plant supply of electricity power cut...do you still think coal thermal power plant profitable in long run? or vietnam government invest in solar, wind and LNG power plant to replace coal thermla power plant?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2018-12-07 16:24 | Report Abuse

Posted by qqq3 > Dec 6, 2018 11:23 PM | Report Abuse
so are u going to write an apology or not? better still with revisions and new thread.

Jon was trying hard to write something to share for those who owns Jaks or contemplating to buy Jaks.

Apology? For what?

You should be the one profusely apologize now as you have led many people lost a fortune shouting margin and sailang when Jaks was trading at RM1.50+.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-07 16:26 | Report Abuse

kc...why all air only but no substance....? be like me lah...talk with substance one.....

Posted by kcchongnz > 2018-12-07 16:30 | Report Abuse

Posted by qqq3 > Dec 7, 2018 04:26 PM | Report Abuse
kc...why all air only but no substance....? be like me lah...talk with substance one.....

KC no substance and qqq3 got substance.

I give you a suggestion. Get your analyst son to read all my articles on Jaks and your articles on Jaks. Then ask him who got substance.

A good test on whether his "accountant" dad really got any substance in finance and investment, and how is he compared with an engineer.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-07 16:39 | Report Abuse

my son? don't involve him...no need.....anyway , have not met an analysts which is my equal...except Tong of Edge....

Posted by kcchongnz > 2018-12-07 16:46 | Report Abuse

Posted by qqq3 > Dec 7, 2018 04:35 PM | Report Abuse
my son? don't involve him...no need...He is on holiday in Bangkok....anyway , have not met an analysts which is my equal...except Tong of Edge....

Oh My God!!!!

Well, I think I better just totally ignore you. It just a plain waste of time. You are from another Planet, But before I do that, I just borrow what somewhat who had met you and knows you very well as below,

"Dear fake accountant qqq3,
I am very mean and cruel to you in order to be kind to all the i3 community by exposing you for what you are. You are a fake accountant, a fraudster, a backstabber, a bootlicker, an ass-kisser, a shameless manipulator and good for nothing low life parasite feeding newbie and even super-investor Mr. Koon with manipulated information for you owe self benefit.
By exposing you and hitting at your conscience, I am trying to save the i3 community from your bad influence/evil and if possible save your soul/conscience too if you still have one inside you. Now I can say for sure your soul/conscience is beyond saving.
Can you now please prove to i3 you are a real accountant and tell us when you met Mr. Koon and for what purpose? I shall rest my case."

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-07 16:46 | Report Abuse

kc...

actually your performance worse than young man choi....

Young man trying to prove viability of the ipp by extrapolate here extrapolate there...U trying to calculate IRR in vacuum.....How is more silly?

corporate finance is worried how to complete the deal..... refer to capital commitment for the project...

u see...huge difference between book man and practical men....

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-07 16:47 | Report Abuse

kc...

actually your performance worse than young man choi....

Young man trying to prove viability of the ipp by extrapolate here extrapolate there...U trying to calculate IRR in vacuum.....Who is more silly?

corporate finance is worried how to complete the deal..... refer to capital commitment for the project...

u see...huge difference between book man and practical men....

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-07 16:48 | Report Abuse

Posted by i3lurker > Dec 7, 2018 01:21 PM | Report Abuse

PN17 coming if no action taken, Chinese like this very much.
========

crazy talk....with so much assets,, where got PN 17....?

huge positive current ratio, huge assets....where got PN17?....what concerns Jaks is not creditors/ bankers liabilities....but its own commitment for Vietnam venture.

Material Commitment
Save as disclosed below, there are no material commitments incurred or known to be
incurred by the Group that has not been provided for, which upon becoming
enforceable, may have a material impact on the financial results/position of the
Group:-
There is capital contribution contracted but not provided for in respect of shares
subscription in the joint venture, JAKS Pacific Power Limited, amounting to
approximately USD110.14 million or * RM456 million, using exchange rate of
USD1 : RM4.1405 as at 28 September 2018.

* about 30% is cash commitment, rest being EPCC profits

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-07 16:49 | Report Abuse

qqq3 > Dec 7, 2018 03:03 PM | Report Abuse X

d by qqq3 > Dec 7, 2018 12:51 PM | Report Abuse X

no rights issue....I guarantee u....

They will have to dispose assets...including some or all of its stake Vietnam plant if terms are acceptable...actually, not bad one.....if they can arrange a sale but keep the EPCC profits which have been agreed upon...about $ 250 million remains....This share can still fly if they strike the right deal.

Posted by ks55 > 2018-12-07 16:51 | Report Abuse

Fake accountant.

Do you know that when share market not doing well like in 1997/98, the very first thing the broker house did was to dismantle the Research Department.

Your son's job is at risk now.
Donald Duck tsunami is coming wave after wave...........

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2018-12-07 16:54 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-07 16:54 | Report Abuse

ks...let him worry about it when time comes...not like u , cross road also worry sick.....

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-07 16:55 | Report Abuse

bully...where I got bully? I just stating my opinion.....with reasons.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-07 16:58 | Report Abuse

kcchongnz > Dec 7, 2018 04:46 PM | Report Abuse

I just borrow what somewhat who had met you and knows you very well as below,

=======

met me? no no no...Never met that psycho and OCD patient SS Lee.

Posted by Shinnzaii > 2018-12-07 16:59 | Report Abuse

Yes...fly awhile for special dividend declare from disposal of asset then going down...then park low lorh