Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-30 17:20 | Report Abuse

Ben Graham invested 50% of his partnership fund into Geico. He did not sell even when it was no longer undervalued. He held it for 25 years and this single investment grew into a 500 baggers.

His single gain from Geico outstripped all the aggregate gains from all his other undervalued stock plays.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-30 17:21 | Report Abuse

... in his lifetime of investing!

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-30 17:27 | Report Abuse

Other similar examples:
BIG BET IN 1 COMPANY LONG TERM


Teh Hong Piow in PBB and LPI
Chia SK in QL
Lim Wee Chai in Topglove
Kuan in Hartalega
Mr 1015 in QL
Lee S C in IOI

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-30 17:32 | Report Abuse

Ben Graham: Just Plain Lucky? - safalniveshak
Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Wed, 30 Jan 2019, 02:23 PM

Remember Ben Graham, the guy who wrote The Intelligent Investor? And who taught Warren Buffett to become Warren Buffett?

Well, if you really know who Graham was, you also know that he is associated with buying something cheap (one dollar worth at fifty cents) and then selling it when it reaches a value that reflects what it’s worth.

A very copybook, calculated approach, right? Like what a Rahul Dravid would do in cricket.

But, for once, go back and read the postscript of The Intelligent Investor (Pg. 532), where Graham shares a story of some other kind. He starts by describing two partners of an investment firm who –

…combined good profit possibilities with sound values. They avoided anything that appeared overpriced and were rather too quick to dispose of issues that had advanced to levels they deemed no longer attractive. Their portfolio was always well diversified, with more than a hundred different issues represented. In this way they did quite well through many years of ups and downs in the general market; they averaged about 20% per annum on the several millions of capital they had accepted for management, and their clients were well pleased with the results.

In short, these were conservative, well-diversified investors who played it very safe with their and other people’s money. Like Graham is known to have always advocated.

Anyhow, somewhere in 1948, these partners found an opportunity to purchase around 50% of a growing business. They were so impressed by this opportunity that they broke their rule and invested around 25% of the assets they managed into this single stock.

This was, Graham wrote, “…a highly unusual departure for the conservative managers, who normally diversified widely and seldom invested more than 5% or so in any one holding.”

Anyways, over years, this stock went up more than 200-times, and the partners didn’t sell it, again breaking their rule of selling stocks when they reached fair values. This was even though they couldn’t justify keeping it based on their strict standards of valuation and margin of safety they otherwise practiced.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-30 17:35 | Report Abuse

Graham added in the Postscript –
Ironically enough, the aggregate of profits accruing from this single investment decision far exceeded the sum of all the others realized through 20 years of wide-ranging operations in the partners’ specialized fields, involving much investigation, endless pondering, and countless individual decisions.

In cricketing parlance, these partners who had always played their game like Rahul Dravid, pinch-hit a big one like Virendra Sehwag, and succeeded massively at that.

“Are there morals to this story of value to the intelligent investor?” asks Graham, and then provides an answer –
…one lucky break, or one supremely shrewd decision – can we tell them apart? – may count for more than a lifetime of journeyman efforts.

Remember these words of the father of value investing when you find a fund manager boasting about how skillful he is at picking stocks.

Well, to spill the beans, one of the abovementioned partners was Graham himself (yes, Graham himself!). The stock was the insurance company GEICO, and Graham credited much of this phenomenal success to luck alone.

How big the success it really was? Graham’s fund’s $712,500 investment in GEICO turned to more than $400 million in 25 years. In Peter Lynch parlance, Graham had hit upon a 500 bagger!

Graham suggested that he got tremendously lucky with GEICO. But was that just luck? No!

As he added to the Postscript –
…behind the luck, or the crucial decision, there must usually exist a background of preparation and disciplines capacity. One needs to be sufficiently established and recognized so that these opportunities will knock at his particular door. One must have the means, the judgment, and the courage to take advantage of them.

Ultimately, what’s the moral of the story of Graham’s tryst with GEICO?
We investors tend to think it’s easy to be a successful investor. The ultra-successful, even though they are few, have an outsized effect on us. We believe we can succeed because they did, and ignore the role of luck in their success.

Investing in a game of probabilities. Uncertainty rules the roost here. And thus, luck plays an important part in separating winners from losers.
Unfortunately, even if the achievement is purely random, as in coin flipping or in stock investing, we usually look back and credit the successful individual with great skill for having accomplished it. We make many mistakes of this type, attributing skill to a person who had only luck.

Our tendency to base decisions on observed success, while ignoring unobserved failure, is called the survivorship bias. Graham wouldn’t have been known to us if he had failed in his big bet on GEICO. Or he may have been known as just another “successful” fund manager who attributed his success entirely to his skill in identifying the stock early. Like he is quoted as saying this in 1976 –

In 1948, we made our GEICO investment and from then on, we seemed to be very brilliant people.
The world of investing, like most things in life, produces success stories and failures. It’s human nature to wish to copy success. However, the ironic truth is this: To accept success at face value without acknowledging the role of luck is a strategy for failure. Graham, in being lucky with GEICO, knew this well.

But it’s also important to note that luck, like love, is a verb. It requires dedication and effort and the conviction and courage to act. Like Graham wrote –

…behind the luck, or the crucial decision, there must usually exist a background of preparation and disciplines capacity.

Another key lesson here is that of not selling your winning stock just because you think it has reached fair value or has gotten overpriced. Thank Graham for breaking this rule that he had himself practiced so strictly. GEICO started off as a value investment, but as the business grew, Graham held on and reaped the benefits over a 25-year period.

In fact, the reason Graham deliberately concentrated in GEICO was that his analysis showed it was undervalued and provided an asymmetric outcome. He played down this very important ‘skill’ part in the entire process of making money on GEICO.

The way to win in the stock market, according to Charlie Munger, is to work, work, work, work and hope to have a few insights. The question is – how many insights do you need in your investing lifetime?

Not many, as Munger says (and Graham proved with GEICO) –

…you don’t need many in a lifetime. If you look at Berkshire Hathaway and all of its accumulated billions, the top ten insights account for most of it. And that’s with a very brilliant man — Warren’s a lot more able than I am and very disciplined—devoting his lifetime to it. I don’t mean to say that he’s only had ten insights. I’m just saying, that most of the money came from ten insights.
…you’re probably not going to be smart enough to find thousands in a lifetime. And when you get a few, you really load up. It’s just that simple.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-30 17:41 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by geary > 2019-01-30 17:46 | Report Abuse

Graham n Buffett already knew GEICO long, long time ago...but nearly went bankrupt run by a crazy CEO. The stock price dropped like hell untill below 2.00 per share n its owner killed himself. Under the new CEO...Bryne...did Buffett had a long meeting with him that he dared to invest substantial amount into GEICO at below 2.00 per share. They well prepared n knowledgeable about it. They knew it will succeed under a new management. The rest is history...n mind you now BRK has 100% of GEICO n delisted. TQ.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-30 17:50 | Report Abuse

Correctloh...in a way it is like insider trading loh...!!

U have confidence to buy big until delisting, bcos u have insider information mah....!!

How many people have this special priviledge leh ?

Posted by geary > Jan 30, 2019 05:46 PM | Report Abuse

Graham n Buffett already knew GEICO long, long time ago...but nearly went bankrupt run by a crazy CEO. The stock price dropped like hell untill below 2.00 per share n its owner killed himself. Under the new CEO...Bryne...did Buffett had a long meeting with him that he dared to invest substantial amount into GEICO at below 2.00 per share. They well prepared n knowledgeable about it. They knew it will succeed under a new management. The rest is history...n mind you now BRK has 100% of GEICO n delisted. TQ.

Posted by geary > 2019-01-30 17:55 | Report Abuse

Probably half insiders info...plus they knew its business inside-out...n they have good judgement of characters... especially Buffett...!!!

Posted by Holycow > 2019-01-30 17:57 | Report Abuse

hi kc,i agree to your blog. But question, may i know how to calculate whether the company stock is undervalue ? or correspond to your margin of safety ?

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-30 17:57 | Report Abuse

How can be half insider info, when they call the shot and biggest shareholder leh ??

Posted by geary > Jan 30, 2019 05:55 PM | Report Abuse

Probably half insiders info...plus they knew its business inside-out...n they have good judgement of characters... especially Buffett...!!!

Posted by geary > 2019-01-30 18:02 | Report Abuse

@stockraider...bro...it a long, long, story, intact Buffett sold all of GEICO in 1969... N bought back around 1974 when the new CEO took over and with huge Margin of Safety... because he knew it will grow bigger... reading that really make us a better investors. TQ.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-30 18:08 | Report Abuse

correctloh...what i m emphasising, is people like buffet world greatest investor....also make use of insider info advantage to buy big mah...but people like 3iii & Philip simply say sailang when the stock PE very high above 50x....what special advantage they have leh ?, other than they have bought very cheap many years back loh ???

Posted by geary > Jan 30, 2019 06:02 PM | Report Abuse

@stockraider...bro...it a long, long, story, intact Buffett sold all of GEICO in 1969... N bought back around 1974 when the new CEO took over and with huge Margin of Safety... because he knew it will grow bigger... reading that really make us a better investors. TQ.

Posted by geary > 2019-01-30 18:19 | Report Abuse

Don't fall in love with your investments...if you don't have full control of the management...they should sell some to zero down their cost of capital... everybody knew some are good company...but price is irrational...!!!

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-30 18:28 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-30 18:29 | Report Abuse

>>>
Posted by stockraider > Jan 30, 2019 06:08 PM | Report Abuse

correctloh...what i m emphasising, is people like buffet world greatest investor....also make use of insider info advantage to buy big mah...but people like 3iii & Philip simply say sailang when the stock PE very high above 50x....what special advantage they have leh ?, other than they have bought very cheap many years back loh ???
>>>>



Raider is envious of the gains of 3iii and Mr 1015 to date.

So much for his activities.

Inactivity wins by a mile.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-30 18:35 | Report Abuse

Raider no envy loh....!!

As raider say...my penny margin of safetys stock model like insas, lcth, gsb, pmcorp already make alot of monies about 3 baggers mah...!!

Some more no need to hold so long long loh....!!

Most important even....after sold can buy back big, and again make another big round mah....!!

This how u become rich if u invest based on margin of safety on undervalue stock loh....!!

Posted by 3iii > Jan 30, 2019 06:29 PM | Report Abuse

>>>
Posted by stockraider > Jan 30, 2019 06:08 PM | Report Abuse

correctloh...what i m emphasising, is people like buffet world greatest investor....also make use of insider info advantage to buy big mah...but people like 3iii & Philip simply say sailang when the stock PE very high above 50x....what special advantage they have leh ?, other than they have bought very cheap many years back loh ??? >>>>



Raider is envious of the gains of 3iii and Mr 1015 to date.

So much for his activities.

Inactivity wins by a mile.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-30 19:07 | Report Abuse

IF U BUY INTO MARGIN OF SAFETY STOCK, LIKE INSAS AND MNRB, IT IS VERY SAFE AND U SLEEP WELL LOH, EVEN MARKET BAD, THIS TYPE OF SHARE INVESTMENT NOT AFFECTED BCOS OF HUGE UNDERVALUATION LOH....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-30 20:47 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-30 20:52 | Report Abuse

A few quotes from Seth Klarmen on MOS in his book.

“A margin of safety is achieved when securities are purchased at prices sufficiently below underlying value to allow for human error, bad luck, or extreme volatility in a complex, unpredictable and rapidly changing world.”

“By always buying at a significant discount to underlying business value, and giving preference to tangible assets over intangibles. (This does not mean that there are not excellent investment opportunities in businesses with valuable intangible assets.)… Since investors cannot predict when values will rise or fall, valuation should always be performed conservatively, giving considerable weight to worst-case liquidation value as well as to other methods.”

“A margin of safety is [is intended to] allow for human error, bad luck, or extreme volatility in a complex, unpredictable and rapidly changing world.”

Mohnish Pabrai founded Pabrai Investment Funds in 1999. His long-only equity fund has returned a cumulative 517% net for investors versus 43% for the S&P 500 Index since the fund's inception in 2000. Outperforming the S&P 500 by 1103% from its inception through 2013, Pabrai quickly became one of the most recognized value investors in the world. This is what he has said about MOS,

“The idea is that you buy things at a significant discount to what their underlying value is, so that in the event that either bad things happen or you made some mistake in your calculations, you have some fallback so you do not lose money. There is also another aspect to margin of safety, that is that the greater the discount to intrinsic value that you are paying you get two things ­ downside protection and upside.”

Conclusion

The concept of MOS is used by almost all the successful super investors in the world. Some may not use it, but yet they just keep quiet as they know it is a plausible, logical and proven successful concept in investing.

Yes, estimation of the value of a stock is an art as well as a science. There is no guarantee that your estimation is correct. But then without an estimation of the value, how much are you willing to pay for it?

Buying something at a price way below its estimated value. Do I need to elaborate more about that?

RAIDER COMMENT;

SO WHAT ARE THE STOCK IS IN THIS INVESTABLE CATEGORY LEH ??

RAIDER SEE INSAS AND MNRB BASED ON THE CURRENT MKT CONDITIONS AND PRICING HAS SHOWN GREAT DEEP VALUE DISCOUNT OPPORTUNITY LOH...!!

Posted by kcchongnz > 2019-01-30 21:57 | Report Abuse

Posted by Holycow > Jan 30, 2019 05:57 PM | Report Abuse
hi kc,i agree to your blog. But question, may i know how to calculate whether the company stock is undervalue ? or correspond to your margin of safety ?

First look at whether it is a good company,

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/161473.jsp

Here you can see the difference of a good company and a bad one.

Next, do some simple valuations. Without a valuation, it is hard to decide if a price offer is worth taking,

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/162226.jsp

There are various valuation technique to be used as shown in the above link.

The above two is generally good enough to decide whether to invest in a stock or not.

Then if you want to dig deeper into margin of safety, try reading and learn up the stuff as shown in the stuff below.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/166106.jsp

This last one is harder but not insurmountable if you certain level of skill. But it is not utmost essential to be successful in investing. It is like another wedge in your golf bag.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-30 23:23 | Report Abuse

Raider can only say this loh....this 3iii a fucking fellow...asking unreasonable and annoying question loh...!!

Raider ask back 3iii, how much share u hold on the share below and what price u hold & when u bought loh ??;

1.Nestle
2. Dutch Lady
3. Petdag
4. Pbank
5. LPI
6. HEIN
7. F&N
8. Padini

As usual raider ask simple question loh...!! But likely scenario conman 3iii will try to avoid raider simple question mah...!!

Why did raider ask 3iii? Simple. When 3iii says said he made a lot of money investing above, I am pleased for him.

But then 3iii said he made more money than some others buying quality stocks & holding long term, surely needs a bit of clarification mah ??.

For his style of investing, I wonder how much he put into each stock investment? I am curious.


Posted by 3iii > Jan 29, 2019 01:02 PM | Report Abuse

>>>
Posted by stockraider > Jan 29, 2019 09:46 AM | Report Abuse

Raider got annoyed when people ask stupid question especially from 3iii loh....!!

Why leh ??
If raider says make alot, bcos buy alot and make millions 3iii will be very jealous of raider mah....!!
If raider says make not much, bcos did not buy very much, bcos no monies and no confidence, 3iii will laugh at raider loh...!!

So how to answer leh ??

The truth is, raider make alot loh...!! Why leh ?? Bcos it is core margin of safety stock pick of raider during that time mah...!!

Margin of safety buys are investment & not speculation mah...!!

Bcos if u buy the stock with huge undervaluation and big margin of safety so it is investment and u buy alot, bcos u know u can sleep soundly bcos of big margin of safety mah loh....!! >>>>


I asked a simple question. How much do you put into each stock?

I get a complex answer.

Why did I ask? Simple. When raider said he made a lot of money, I am pleased for him. But then he said he made more money than some others, surely needs a bit of clarification.

For his style of investing, I wonder how much he put into each trade? I am curious.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-31 10:07 | Report Abuse

Do not worry about price fluctuation, in fact the more they wrongly price the stock, the better & safer u buyloh loh...!!

Insas is a good example how value investment can easily beat overvalue stock like Nestle and QL when the valuation is unable to justify mah...!!

Posted by 3iii > Jan 31, 2019 09:57 AM | Report Abuse

Once you find an undervalued security trading at a substantial discount to your estimate of intrinsic value, your job is not over.

"Why is the stock (eg.Insas) trading at this level and what catalysts will lead to its eventual reversal?"

If you cannot answer this question, you should not be investing in the stock.

This is second level thinking (Howard Marks) and it will keep you from falling into a value trap.

An investor must always keep asking, "why"?

Why is this occurring?

What is the overarching reasoning or justification behind this particular scenario or occurrence?

When you have those answers, you have to ascertain why the other side may (or may not) be wrong.

Is there are mispricing here?

There was a major disconnect between perception and reality - between the stock price and the intrinsic value of the business. Why?


There can be from any number of reasons. Usually one or the other side is wrong from psychological or analytical misjudgements (sometimes both).

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-31 10:16 | Report Abuse

Good question loh !!

But this all boil down to actually inherent good fundamental, that mkt wrongly perceive mah...!!

Like;

1 Strong nett cash holding
2. Inari they hold exceed the whole insas mkt capitalization
3. Paying reasonable div yield of 3% pa even exceed Nestle div yield of 2.5% pa.
4. Existing broking, advisory, money lending and investment business doing good profit.
5. High Nta of Rm 2.54 per share

Any of the internal positive fundamental will rerate the stock loh..!!

In fact insas is going up everyday at 0.5 to 1.0 sen almost everyday, bcos recognise the potential and has started accumulation loh...!!

Posted by 3iii > Jan 31, 2019 09:58 AM | Report Abuse

Once you find an undervalued security trading at a substantial discount to your estimate of intrinsic value, your job is not over.

"Why is the stock (eg.Insas) trading at this level and what catalysts will lead to its eventual reversal?"

If you cannot answer this question, you should not be investing in the stock.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-31 10:26 | Report Abuse

Usually u say yes bcos ur opportunity cost is generally cash with yield of about 4% pa, so ur opportunity cost is 5% to 6% pa mah...!!

As long as u buy with big margin of safety, usually u make monies above ur opportunity cost loh...!!

If u always say no....u will end up like Tan Teong Boo of icap in which 3iii and Philips are criticizing bcos of no balls to invest loh...!!

Posted by 3iii > Jan 29, 2019 01:35 PM | Report Abuse

The real challenge to prioritization is saying, “No!”

It’s easy to say yes.

What’s hard is saying no to busy work that gives you the satisfaction of checking an item off your to do list — meeting an obligation to someone else, doing an easy task, writing an email.

Posted by CharlesT > 2019-01-31 10:28 | Report Abuse

U guys r more persistant than my jiak sai ah boy

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-31 10:32 | Report Abuse

We need to counter this 3iii & Philip, if not these fellas will blah...blah...blah everyday....their overvalue quality investment like Ql and Nestle and rundown down value investment loh...!!

Posted by CharlesT > Jan 31, 2019 10:28 AM | Report Abuse

U guys r more persistant than my jiak sai ah boy

Posted by CharlesT > 2019-01-31 10:33 | Report Abuse

Lol

Posted by stockraider > 2019-02-02 13:27 | Report Abuse

MARGIN OF SAFETY INVESTOR SHOULD LOOK INTO THIS ESSENTIAL POINT LOH..!!

Always Bet On Integrity

BE HONEST AND DEPENDABLE; TAKE RESPONSIBILITY

10 Ask any number of leaders if it’s important to operate ethically and with integrity and they’ll say yes, definitely. But they don’t always stick to those traits if it means losing a key client or missing out on a big contract.

Here’s how to live by your principles, even in tough times.
Show the way. The CEO’s actions set the tone for the entire company, says Jim Hlavacek, who runs a Charlotte, N.C.-based global management development firm. Act with integrity, and others will emulate you. But the reverse happens, too.

“The CEO’s shadow cascades like a waterfall over the entire organization,” said Hlavacek, who wrote “Fat Cats Don’t Hunt.” “Everybody watches what they say or do. If you ignore wrongdoing and do nothing, others will know integrity isn’t valued.”
Stay steady. Do the right thing all the time and make sure others do it, too. “You have to stick to it,” Hlavacek told. “You can do it by the simple fact there are no exceptions. Be consistent.”

Don’t cave. It’s easy to fall prey to the pressure of hitting financial targets and bend the rules. But you’ll pay a bigger price if you do that. Stick to doing things with integrity to achieve long-term success. “Without that culture, the organization goes downhill and you’re not sustainable,” said Scott Deming, a speaker, author and trainer on leadership, culture and building brands.

Stay firm. If the leader puts profits ahead of integrity, employees will lie to make their financial goals, Deming says. But if the CEO does the right thing even at a cost, it resonates loudly companywide.
When Deming ran an ad agency, a contractor for one of his big clients was continually rude and vulgar to one of his staff. With the woman in his office, Deming called the contractor to say he was tossing him off the campaign. One of the client’s top people contacted Deming shortly after. Deming told the client he wouldn’t change his mind, and the client could fire his agency if needed.

“That told her (his employee) — and she told everybody — that I’m about doing the right thing and putting that ahead of making a buck,” Deming said. The client stayed with Deming’s firm.
Talk about it. Constantly spread the idea of operating with integrity across the entire organization.

“Communicate, communicate, communicate,” Hlavacek said.
Win them over. Be honest and ethical all the time and you’ll earn the faith of your employees.
“You’ll earn not just their respect but their trust,” Hlavacek said.
Build the culture. The chief executive’s behavior and ideas filter through the organization, good or bad. Former StarbucksSBUX CEO Howard Schultz built a collaborative culture that led to huge success. The same goes for centering a culture on integrity. “Schultz said when people have passion around a common purpose, anything is possible,”

Deming said.
Get out and about. Respect your people and treat them right. Hlavacek says that will get them to do things honestly. Johnson & JohnsonJNJ puts its employees and customers first and says the profits will follow. “Leaders need to come off their perches,” he said. “Show you’re easy to talk to. If you treat your employees well, they’ll treat customers well, and profits will follow.” Steve Watkins
Telegram me: Bursa Snipers

Posted by 3iii > 2019-02-02 14:04 | Report Abuse

>>>
Posted by stockraider > Jan 31, 2019 10:32 AM | Report Abuse

We need to counter this 3iii & Philip, if not these fellas will blah...blah...blah everyday....their overvalue quality investment like Ql and Nestle and rundown down value investment loh...!!
>>>>



Is raider a remisier too?

Posted by stockraider > 2019-02-02 14:16 | Report Abuse

Dear 3iii,

It is Going to be chinese new year soon, please stop to be arguementative, Raider already told u longtime ago, i m a businessman own a private investigation agency mah...!!

I am not a remisier, but i hope u don have any thing against remisier, bcos i notice u have been harping on people being remisier mah..!!

The reason raider commented below, is bcos raider want readers to have a balance view on investment, beside buy hold growth investment for example, u can consider the viable margin of safety value investment loh...!!

"We need to counter this 3iii & Philip, if not these fellas will blah...blah...blah everyday....their overvalue quality investment like Ql and Nestle and rundown down value investment loh...!! "

PLEASE NOTE THAT MARGIN OF SAFETY INVESTMENT IS ALSO BUY HOLD STRATEGY N NOT SO ACTIVE INVESTMENT TOO MAH...!!

IT IS AN INVESTMENT & NOT TRADING LOH...!!

Posted by 3iii > Feb 2, 2019 02:04 PM | Report Abuse

>>>
Posted by stockraider > Jan 31, 2019 10:32 AM | Report Abuse

We need to counter this 3iii & Philip, if not these fellas will blah...blah...blah everyday....their overvalue quality investment like Ql and Nestle and rundown down value investment loh...!!
>>>>



Is raider a remisier too?

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-02-02 14:24 | Report Abuse

Raider keep comparing and trying to say I buy pe50 stock, as if my brain that deficient. But he refused to ask why I sailang buy bought QL in 2009 and keep until now. Most importantly no one ask me what I see in ql to buy it in 2009. All they see now is pe50.

Same thing, raider never see that I buy NYSE:STNE at usd19@January 4 2019, when it is pe27, 200k shares.

He only keep saying I know how to drive don't know how to gostan.

My question is, has the business changed in 10 years? Has pbb suddenly become risky borrowers? Has topglove decided to become a property developer instead of manufacturing 20% of world glove market? Has ql revenue and earnings dropped in 20 years? Has YINSON stopped doing transportation?

Problem is, the stocks I buy never give me a chance to gostan. Why need to learn how to reverse?

But ask yourself this. Back then what did you think?

I bought topglove pe20+ in 2010, expensive?
I bought pbb pe20+ In 2012, expensive?
I bought yinson pe20+ in 2013 expensive?

Today I buy NYSE:STNE pe27+, expensive?

Buy undervalued stock? Sure can earn. Long term can earn?

Buy quality at fair prices? Sure can earn lo.

I shut up now and let you understand.

*If INSAS was really such a fabulous company, why is it not in your 2019 stock list? Why is a company that is losing money, nta every year dropping, what form of margin of safety is there?

At least practise what you preach la.

Posted by CharlesT > 2019-02-02 14:25 | Report Abuse

How i wish i knew philip in 2009....sad

Posted by CharlesT > 2019-02-02 14:26 | Report Abuse

Actually 2017 also ok.


Not nov last year....guess bad luck loh

Posted by CharlesT > 2019-02-02 14:32 | Report Abuse

Philip come out to share his good co ql at record high price

In return i share with him with mnrb at record low price

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-02-02 14:32 | Report Abuse

I'm not saying I've never made a mistake, like renong and aokam, sure everyone make mistakes.

But need to counter you more than 3iii or me lo...

Everyone in this forum keep buying MOS stocks, low PE stocks, safety mantra.... Without understanding what stock they are buying, how it will grow and perform 5-10 years from now.

There are more trader investors like you and sslee in i3ivestor than there are long term growth investors like me and 3iii lo.

Need to counter you more important. Go every page and keep spouting INSAS Hathaway. But 2019 stock pick not even 1 share in INSAS Hathaway. But instead buy bjcorp...

You probably don't even have 1 share in INSAS in real life, and probably lost more chasing hengyuan up and down than you will honestly admit.

In 10 years owning my pe50 stock and top up quarterly I have yet to cut loss on my QL. How many times you cut loss on your hengyuan?

Even when the stock dropped in December I bought 50k shares dec21@6.25 I still have yet to make a loss.

Posted by CharlesT > 2019-02-02 14:34 | Report Abuse

Philip can write long essays FA analysis with good england..

Me wrote short comments..no fa no ta analysis

Who will win?

Posted by CharlesT > 2019-02-02 14:35 | Report Abuse

Hope to see u around in 2020 ah

Posted by CharlesT > 2019-02-02 14:36 | Report Abuse

I want free massage ah

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-02-02 14:36 | Report Abuse

CharlesT you know me in 2019 still good, I find my 5th stock. NYSE: STNE, the 6th biggest payment company in Brazil, Berkshire own 10%, Alibaba own share also.

They are the fastest growing payment company in Brazil right now, can process credit card, online payment, points processing in one machine, and got cloud app to your phone to check your payments automatically.

I bought in 2019, usd19@jan4 2019.

If you say I come out in 2009, please record this date. Then you come back and check again in 10 years. See if I bring you Holland.

Posted by CharlesT > 2019-02-02 14:37 | Report Abuse

As long as u are still around in.2020 i will be very happy oredi

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-02-02 14:37 | Report Abuse

See if your stock works out or not. I don't see a future for Malaysia reinvestment 2 years from now. Ashtray terminal growth ended, and can't fight foreign reinvestment firms with more capital.

I'm confident.

Posted by CharlesT > 2019-02-02 14:38 | Report Abuse

10 years too long..maybe i die b4 u leh.

Maybe we both no longer here leh

2020 likely we are still around...likely lah

Posted by CharlesT > 2019-02-02 14:41 | Report Abuse

U sure yr spa will still be around 10 years later ..even so r u sure u still can erect by then?

Posted by stockraider > 2019-02-02 14:43 | Report Abuse

Dear Philip,

Raider has nothing against your strategy of buying into QL heavy, when it is at PE 15 to 17 time when price is around Rm 2.00 to Rm 4.00 loh..!!

In fact raider also use your strategy bought into HL Bank, HLFG, Panasonic, PPB, Hein & ajinomoto...in fact this stock is giving me 5 to 20 baggers loh....but i did not talk about it, bcos right now i think is on the high side, i did not sell either bcos i m still comfortable even at current high price is still can give me 6% to 10% pa loh..!!

Raider is just emphasising at the current PE 50x above Rm 6.50, should not chase anymore for the reader mah....!!
I did the same on my own portfolio too, i m not me targeting specifically NESTLE AND QL only mah....!!

Growth strategy works and less risky, if u can get stock at reasonable fair price like Pe 15x to 17x mah, not easy to find & rare mah.!!...if u look at 100 counters maybe got opportunity of 1 can qualify loh...!!

For newbies if u want to out perform u must continue to look at new QL, new Nestle and New Hong Leong bank mah....!!

As for INSAS raider need to correct u loh, it is already making good monies right now, and it has been a few yr making monies already mah.!

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > Feb 2, 2019 02:22 PM | Report Abuse

Raider keep comparing and trying to say I buy pe50 stock, as if my brain that deficient. But he refused to ask why I sailang buy bought QL in 2009 and keep until now. Most importantly no one ask me what I see in ql to buy it in 2009. All they see now is pe50.

Same thing, raider never see that I buy NYSE:STNE at usd19@January 4 2019, when it is pe27, 200k shares.

He only keep saying I know how to drive don't know how to gostan.

My question is, has the business changed in 10 years? Has pbb suddenly become risky borrowers? Has topglove decided to become a property developer instead of manufacturing 20% of world glove market? Has ql revenue and earnings dropped in 20 years? Has YINSON store doing transportation?

Problem is, the stocks I buy never give me a chance to gostan. Why need to learn how to reverse?

But ask yourself this. Back then what did you think?

I bought topglove pe20+ in 2010, expensive?
I bought pbb pe20+ In 2012, expensive?
I bought yinson pe20+ in 2013 expensive?

Today I buy NYSE:STNE pe27+, expensive?

Buy undervalued stock? Sure can earn. Long term can earn?

Buy quality at fair prices? Sure can earn lo.

I shut up now and let you understand.

*If INSAS was really such a fabulous company, why is it not in your 2019 stock list? Why is a company that is losing money, nta every year dropping, what form of margin of safety is there?

At least practise what you preach la.

Posted by CharlesT > 2019-02-02 14:46 | Report Abuse

Pls lah stockraider dont push him too much

Later he disappear in 2020 u treat me to spa ah?

Posted by stockraider > 2019-02-02 14:48 | Report Abuse

yes..woh...!!

Your MNRB is leading loh...!!

Posted by CharlesT > Feb 2, 2019 02:46 PM | Report Abuse

Pls lah stockraider dont push him too much

Later he disappear in 2020 u treat me to spa ah?

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-02-02 14:49 | Report Abuse

CharlesT, you are a very low class investor.

Hope your investing method works.

Because your characters doesn't.

Posted by CharlesT > 2019-02-02 14:49 | Report Abuse

Yeap pls be nice n gentle to philip if u n me wanna free bkt n spa...

Posted by CharlesT > 2019-02-02 14:51 | Report Abuse

Wah philip angry oredi....ok ok i keep quiet

High class people sure will honour their promise right philip?