Posted by PaulNewman > 2020-02-05 07:53 | Report Abuse

Any books that I can read to learn more about analyzing and identifying quality companies? How do I understand an industry better? Information on an annual report is nuance

Posted by Sslee > 2020-02-05 08:52 | Report Abuse

Dear KCChong,
Good morning, if you look into Dutch Lady financial results from 2016 onward there is no revenue or NP growth that is why the 52 weeks price range: 40.00- 64.78
NPS: 232.90(2016), 183.90(2017), 202.30(2018) cum three quarter 2019(119.30)
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/fin/3026.jsp?type=last10fy

As for Nestle:
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/fin/3026.jsp?type=last10fy
NPS: 271.70(2016), 275.39 (2017), 280.97(2018) cum three quarter 2019(230.75) can it price of 143.40 have room to growth further? Most likely it will be another Dutch Lady.

Thank you

Posted by kcchongnz > 2020-02-05 16:41 | Report Abuse

Posted by PaulNewman > Feb 5, 2020 7:53 AM | Report Abuse
Any books that I can read to learn more about analyzing and identifying quality companies? How do I understand an industry better? Information on an annual report is nuance

Here is one,

https://www.amazon.com/Quality-Investing-Owning-best-companies-ebook/dp/B017BI3V9A

Posted by kcchongnz > 2020-02-05 17:13 | Report Abuse

Posted by Sslee > Feb 5, 2020 8:52 AM | Report Abuse
Dear KCChong,
Good morning, if you look into Dutch Lady financial results from 2016 onward there is no revenue or NP growth that is why the 52 weeks price range: 40.00- 64.78
NPS: 232.90(2016), 183.90(2017), 202.30(2018) cum three quarter 2019(119.30)
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/fin/3026.jsp?type=last10fy
As for Nestle:
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/fin/3026.jsp?type=last10fy
NPS: 271.70(2016), 275.39 (2017), 280.97(2018) cum three quarter 2019(230.75) can it price of 143.40 have room to growth further? Most likely it will be another Dutch Lady.
Thank you

As long as there is consistent growth, even at low rate, is good for an excellent company like Nestle. I believe it will continue to grow, albeit not at a high rate. However, whether it is worth a PE of 50 is another matter.

I personally am unwilling to pay at that valuation. And if I have the share, I will sell and look for other opportunity.

However, every investor is different.

Posted by stockraider > 2020-02-05 17:22 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by calvintaneng > 2020-02-06 10:42 | Report Abuse

Correct loh

Kcchongnz is best in i3 forum for sound analysis

And self proclaimed 3iii is the fake

1st person who should go and sign up for lessons from Sifu Kcchongnz should be 3iii

Posted by Philip (Can I advise you?) > 2020-02-22 15:28 | Report Abuse

There are 2 very interesting facts here.

1. How to identify wonderful companies.
2. What price should one pay for them.

The problem is usually hindsight. In actuality, most people identify a quality company only after it has overperformed and hit targets. Then we say oh yes public bank is a quality company, and topglove is a quality company. But rarely do individuals buy it when it was a good company becoming into a quality one.
The fact of the matter is: no one ever buys a wonderful company. What everyone usually does is start with a potentially good company, and sit along for the ride.

As for price: no one can say a valuation is too rich or too poor for a wonderful company. Just because a company has high PE does not make it a bad deal, if it continues to hit it's targets and milestones.

I remember kcchongz saying that he noticed ql during one of his seminars. He did not buy it then. Last year I remember everyone saying ql was overpriced at pe50 and should sold. Then as revenue and earnings hit all time highs the share price increased by 25%. Now it is pe60+.

Is this overpriced? If using past data and metrics it is. But if the earnings double, you would only be paying pe25+ in terms of future earnings ( assuming you have a crystal ball).

In absence of a crystal ball, I use the boxer analogy. A young boxer who trains everyday, fights everyday gains a certain reputation, a certain confidence. You can't tell how he will perform, but the diet, the roadwork, the management. As he goes to the fight, you hold your breath and wait for the results. When he wins, you can breath a sigh of relief and put more betting money in him. You check his training schedule. What belt he is going for, in which country. If he is fighting against the best fighters, it a sure won battle. Each time he wins, you get more confidence because of his history of winnings and the opponents that he will face. Each time he loses, you check and see if he lost because he was drinking or partying, or if he has the will to retain and improve his body. By backing the right boxer slowly as he grows, you will find yourself supporting a world champion.

I always find the concept of dropping a world champion just because he has won a belt silly, and picking a new one that hasn't won one just because he COULD even sillier.

But putting all your money on the young boxer that won his first fight every sillier, just because he won a fight and the world doesn't know his name yet doesn't mean you should go all in on him.

In other words, buying just because nta is high or PE is low is a recipe for distaster. Investing is a far more complicated sport than reducing it to a few standard metrics.

Posted by stockraider > 2020-02-22 15:37 | Report Abuse

This Philip is dead wrong & out mah...read carefully mah....raider rely both NTA and earnings of insas mah....!!

"Thats why raider say insas 83sen is great bcos it got both has good earnings and NTA, thats why its margin of safety is great & safe loh"...!!

On the issue on "assets of no income" and assets with "high ROE" make this fallacies loh...!!

1. If u have piece of empty in kota kinabalu, but have no income or u may even make losses bcos u have to pay for outgoing of the land...can u tell me your piece of empty has no value meh ??
Of course not loh..!!
Thus the same applies to share with high NTA share, but have low return or no return, of course they always be some good value on your nta loh..!!
Warren Buffet also says NTA is an approximate value of a fair value .

2. Imagine u have Nestle, the ROE of 70%, does that means u give more capital to nestle...it still can generate 70% return on the extra capital leh ??
The answer is NO mah....!! This is bcos extra capital will have little use, it will even bring down the high ROE mah..!!
Thus NESTLE have no choice but to distribute high dividend loh..!!

3 Say Nestle ROE 70% & nta is Rm 3.00 thus & its return is rm 2.10 pa.
Or your prefer Aa PALM OIL company that have NTA of Rm 30.00 but generate a roe of 7% pa thus give u a same return of rm 2.10 PA loh...!!

ANYBODY WHO IS NOT A FOOL WILL CHOSE Aa PALM OIL COMPANY instead OF NESTLE MAH...BCOS WHEN NESTLE COMPANY EARNINGS FALTERED, IT WILL WORTH RM 3.00 MAH, WHEREAS in case of Aa COMPANY U STILL CAN LOOK UP FOR THE RM 30.00 NTA when its earning falter MAH..!!

THUS THIS HOW INVESTMENT IN INSAS IS FORMULATED AS A VIABLE INVESTMENT WITH BIG MARGIN OF SAFETY LOH.....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2020-02-22 15:48 | Report Abuse

If u look at highly expensive football team like Barcelona, Real Madrid, Manchester Units and Manchester United sometime do not win titles, if u keep overpaying & pump it up with huge monies, even it manage to win any title is it worth it leh ??...!!

Likewise if u own QL & Nestle if u overpay,is it at PE 50x worth it meh?

Thats why Ben Graham recommend margin of safety stock instead of overvalue bluechips stock as a better investment preposition loh...!!

Thats why i say investing in insas, fulfil the quality of investment comprising both the margin of safety in terms huge assets discounts, earnings requirement in terms of attractive quality low PE and cashflow requirement in terms of positive cashflow generation and ability to pay reasonable dividend loh....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2020-02-22 15:53 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2020-02-22 23:59 | Report Abuse

Posted by Philip (Can I advise you?) > Feb 22, 2020 3:28 PM | Report Abuse

As for price: no one can say a valuation is too rich or too poor for a wonderful company. Just because a company has high PE does not make it a bad deal, if it continues to hit it's targets and milestones.

I remember kcchongz saying that he noticed ql during one of his seminars. He did not buy it then. Last year I remember everyone saying ql was overpriced at pe50 and should sold. Then as revenue and earnings hit all time highs the share price increased by 25%. Now it is pe60+.

Is this overpriced? If using past data and metrics it is. But if the earnings double, you would only be paying pe25+ in terms of future earnings ( assuming you have a crystal ball).


I would say a valuation of a company selling eggs, surimi, palm oil, things in a convenient stores selling at a PE even at of 50 (not to say 60) is way too rich. As a matter of fact, most super investors in the world would say that. Affirmative. It would be a very bad deal for me to buy it.

S tell me, can its profit double the next year, and what about the next? And why do you think at PE 60 for the kinds of business in QL, that it is still a good buy? A good buy even at PE 100? and how you justify it with some numbers? Or your great stories is good enough?

Posted by Philip (Can I advise you?) > 2020-02-23 07:35 | Report Abuse

A business operating an online supermarket would have been too much for you at PE 100. Or did you buy Amazon?

A business selling 100k electric cars a year being valued more than many major car makers selling millions of cars despite not making a profit for many years. Or did you buy Tesla?

How about buying a business that operates as a bus company plying the Singapore/johor routes that is now worth 8 billion? Did you buy yinson?

When you last analyzed ql, did you know it would sign a 2016 family Mart 300 store franchise agreement? Or that it would double egg production overseas in Indonesia and Philippines? Obviously I didn't.
Anyone who told you they knew would be lying, because even the management did not.

But what I did differently than you and many gurus, was staying invested.

WHY SELL SOMETHING THAT HAS GONE UP, JUST BECAUSE IT HAS GONE UP?

When you notice a certain ability in a company to perform, you stick around to see what happens, see if it was just luck, or whether they are able to meet the challenges. If you say a simple egg company like lhi is not worth pe60, I totally agree. But a ql? They have shown the ability to enter new industries and dominate. Not only dominate, while many companies are losing money, their vertical integration has allowed them to profit while others show losses.

In any case, you have written many great stories yourself. However you only show half the picture, of what you think people should do. How about the other half? ( Which many gurus suddenly go quiet and shy away from saying)

HOW HAVE YOU IMPLEMENTED YOUR OPEN STRATEGIES SO FAR AND WHAT AE YOUR LONG TERM RESULTS?

If possible, I would like see your 10 years record of your portfolio holdings, date of purchase, date of selling, results.

This is to hear great stories from you.

1. How you value stocks by looking at what you bought when you bought it.
2. What you did when the stocks went up. Did you sell too fast?
3. How you reacted when the stock pick went down. Did you average down? Or did you cut loss too fast?
4. What was the performance of the overall market, and how you performed versus the market at the time.

Yes, I would like to read the annual report and letter of Mr kcchongz, who seems to know so much like warren buffet, does classes and writes ebooks.

But no sifu or guru teaches by example like warren or charlie.

Or are you one of those who practice,

DO AS I SAY, NOT AS I DO?

Posted by Najib Zamry > 2020-02-23 07:40 | Report Abuse

Good article Bro!!!

Posted by Philip (Can I advise you?) > 2020-02-23 07:48 | Report Abuse

Fyi, ever since I retired, I have started a long term portfolio comparison in i3. Here it is:

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/120720.jsp

This started in 2019. On top of this, I also added 200,000 shares of stoneco:nyse bought at beginning of last year 4th January. All documented and written with real time article, valuation and results. Not great stories, but full of real life as it happened reporting. I bare my investing methods AND how I perform them.

This is so you can see why I don't need to sell classes and write promotional ebooks.

Even koon yew yin that you like to compare and say you are a better investor than he is ( many times you said you write that you helped him save money).

The fact is, he is in the top 30 shareholders of many companies that made millions. Not articles but from annual reports and findings. Yes here made huge losses from Jaks, which I respect because unlike kcchongz who has never EVER revealed his bad investment choices, only how to pick good stocks, we know for a fact that kyy made millions in dayang, hengyuan, liihen etc.

That is how you should preface you ebooks.

Although obviously not in the arrogant way kyy does it, but in the softspoken respectful way that the kcchongz I like does it.

This is my 10 years results. These are what I bought, these are what I sold. This is my 10 year performance. If you like my performance, this is my ebook and my classes.

Fyi OTB does the same thing.

Posted by Sslee > 2020-02-23 09:17 | Report Abuse

Dear KCChong,
Many had tried to say the same things to Philip on QL since last year not to fall in love with your shares but to no avail. Philip knew what he is getting into, he even wrote, “I3lurker uses computers to think for him. That is why his results are always subpar. If I have listen to Monte Carlo simulation, I would not have held QL from 2009 until today 2020 and still going up from 6.7 to 8.6. In essence, Monte Carlo simulation only works if you assume efficient markets. Which I believe do not exist”

We can only wish him luck and by the way if you look into QL top 30 shareholders they control 72.048% and total number of shareholders 6990. So Philip belongs to one of those rich and lucky 6990 shareholders that have so much faith on the management team. Founder and major shareholder Dr. Chia Song Kun must have done an amazing job and you cannot rebut faith with reasoning.

Thank you
P/S: Many of us do not harbor any ill intention in questioning whether QL can double it earning in yy years. We only give our 2 cents and it is up to you to decide whether to continue holding QL or takes profit and may be top up your PChem, Gkent or stoneco.

Posted by Philip (Can I advise you?) > 2020-02-23 09:57 | Report Abuse

Yes sslee, I totally agree.

Especially when those who do not have any results to speak of sell classes and lessons at high prices.

I recently paid rm8k to attend a class run by an American woman who apparently was a legendary trader winning awards etc, trying to learn new things and understand new technical analysis methods to improve my own methods.

But when I politely asked for her trading portfolio history so I can simulate and understand how she does her buying patterns, she hedged and fumed saying how she buys and sell many option contracts everyday, too many to show and some are based on her proprietary indicator systems so unable to just give it to me.

And here I am wondering what I received paying her 8k for a ta class, and how she found time to trade everyday when she flies around the world teaching classes at 8k per person.

I find I am better served with a free class here,

https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/letters.html

With analysis, a year to year explanation of what this sifu bought, why he bought it, how he changed his selection criteria through the years, his long term results, his losses and profits, how he performed versus the market, and even an audited portfolio showing figures and numbers.

This was sold free.

Tell me again why I should pay for a class from someone who doesn't maintain a portfolio with results?

Even sslee I respect.

He first become top 30 shareholders in xinguan buying based on sound PE, ROE and NTA principles. However, he assumed efficient markets theory, not realising that a profitable Chinese company with billion of cash why would he list IPO in Malaysia instead of China? Markets are not efficient ( or fair), thus learning his first lesson of accounting land versus real life. Honesty, company management, performance has a definite effect on price you pay per earnings. Margins of real life safety.

https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2019ltr.pdf

Then he invested in insas, based on sound principles of buying based on margin of accounting safety ( there are many kinds of safety you see). Net assets, the dividend yield from inari, valuation of existing assets as a safety for future, buying below intrinsic value. However he assumed all assets are the same value ( in dollars, not quality), as accounting methods cannot put a risk profile into each asset ( which is why Moody's standard and Poor's exist). Thus he cannot explain why insas is always undervalued by institutions. The one important rule is this: a company that increases revenue and earnings while maintaining shareholder value is GUARANTEED to rise in stock value. Any other method has exceptions, a high dividend yields company can crash in stock price, a high earnings company, with dropping revenues can crash in stock price, a high revenue company with no profit, can crash in stock price. A company that doesn't take debt to maximize results, can lose interest in stock price.

When sslee made money is when he realized, growing profits, earnings and revenues increases is the best way for a stock price to increase. He hit oil when he invested in o&g companies, right time, right place. Now, bouyed by good results, he has to maintain this for the next 10-20 years. Question is, sell what to buy what? Can he maintain or repeat his success consistently?

Now we come to kcchongz character. Sure, he writes good articles and sound principles. But what stocks does he buy? What is his long term performance? Does he did deep and buy more when his stocks go south? Does he cut loss and stay in cash like TTB?

If he maintains his results like an ICAP, what would it look like?

The lessons you can pick up for free from investopedia, and annual letters from Berkshire, memos from Howard marks.

The man kcchongz is a mystery. Does he even make his money from running classes or stock investing?

I know the American woman I paid 8k to does it from conducting classes. Her one year schedule is full, her advanced classes run 15-20k.

But still, no portfolio to analyze the quality of her investing.

Sslee,

Thank you

Posted by Philip (Can I advise you?) > 2020-02-23 10:17 | Report Abuse

One last free lesson on the concept of convenient stores.

Not all convenience stores are the same. Why did ql choose family mart franchise versus say a Lawson, oxxo or alimentation?

For comparisons between accounting land and real life, we can understand the business model of a trader Joe's (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trader_Joe%27s) and family mart versus say a mynews or 7-11.

One sells store space like a regular supermarket, the other uses vertical integration to sell its own branded goods and fresh foods instead of reselling others people's stuff. More in store profits, better customer loyalty, fresher and better management of goods, lower risk of margin contraction from famous brands squeezing you.

Use the same analogy for an in-n-out burger store versus a McDonald's or KFC and you will quickly learn how to spot wonderful companies before they become pe50-pe60 company's.

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/78dne4/in-n-out-burger-might-be-too-good-to-be-true

Accounting land versus real life.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2020-02-23 10:17 | Report Abuse

Posted by kcchongnz > Feb 22, 2020 11:59 PM | Report Abuse
I would say a valuation of a company selling eggs, surimi, palm oil, things in a convenient stores selling at a PE even at of 50 (not to say 60) is way too rich. As a matter of fact, most super investors in the world would say that. Affirmative. It would be a very bad deal for me to buy it.
S tell me, can its profit double the next year, and what about the next? And why do you think at PE 60 for the kinds of business in QL, that it is still a good buy? A good buy even at PE 100? and how you justify it with some numbers? Or your great stories is good enough?

The above is what I wrote, giving my strong opinion that a certain company is overvalued, sharing my perspective in investing, just like you do, but in opposite way. It is purely on subject matter, nothing personal.

These are what you wrote, number 1,

"This is so you can see why I don't need to sell classes and write promotional ebooks."

So people who teaches the public (and earn an honest living)such as in personal finance, investing offend you? What about all those teachers you have had in schools and university? But why?

Number 2,
Even koon yew yin that you like to compare and say you are a better investor than he is ( many times you said you write that you helped him save money).

So where is the phrase that "you are a better investor than he is"?

Where are those "many times you said you write that you helped him save money"

Number 3,
"The fact is, he is in the top 30 shareholders of many companies that made millions. Not articles but from annual reports and findings. Yes here made huge losses from Jaks, which I respect because unlike kcchongz who has never EVER revealed his bad investment choices, only how to pick good stocks, we know for a fact that kyy made millions in dayang, hengyuan, liihen etc."

Everyone of us has a role model in many things, someone he would like to follow in investing, in philosophy, methodologies, how to do it, including in investing. You have your hero too. To each his own.

kcchongnz share his investing knowledge and experience. He shared, long time ago, his portfolios as they were published initially and the results as they were. Yes, I shared how to pick good stocks, but more importantly, at good prices. I also shared on how to avoid bad stocks, very often, especially lately. My purpose of writing is not to tell oh I have these great stocks, and I have these bad stocks. Or here is my ten years result, "see how great and rich I am"

Anyway, to each his own.

Number 4,
"That is how you should preface you ebooks.
Although obviously not in the arrogant way kyy does it, but in the softspoken respectful way that the kcchongz I like does it.
This is my 10 years results. These are what I bought, these are what I sold. This is my 10 year performance. If you like my performance, this is my ebook and my classes. "

Thanks but no thanks. The eBook is a free one. By the way, investing is my passion, and teaching FA in investing is a hobby for me. However, I have not done any classes for years already. There have been some inquiries of my course, I may start again, as a hobby.

There are many ways of investing, to each his own. You can propagate your way in the internet forum, it is a good thing. But when people generous give their opinion of what your way is, especially if it is different and in inoffensive way, thank them, instead of cursing them, criticizing them personally, whether you wish to take their opinion or not. This is what I do. Anyway, to each his own.

Posted by Philip (Can I advise you?) > 2020-02-23 10:44 | Report Abuse

This is almost the same answer the American trader lady gave to me.

I will repeat one more time, the purpose of putting in your long term portfolio results is not to show off how rich or great you are, but to understand in practice how you buy and when you sell, what stocks you bought that you thought were good choices but turned into turds( like how Warren buffet was not shy about admitting his decker shoes investment). Everyone can learn something from failures and winners, only those without results would think it being showoff or proud to show a trackable year by year results portfolio.

It shows a lot of your real character in being defensive and negative when one is asking about your real world performance to understand more on your selection criteria.

You remind me of Jeff skillings.

Mark to market accounting much?


>>>>>>>>>

My purpose of writing is not to tell oh I have these great stocks, and I have these bad stocks. Or here is my ten years result, "see how great and rich I am"

Posted by kcchongnz > 2020-02-23 10:52 | Report Abuse

This reminds me of

"Can I advise you on something!"

No man!


Posted by Philip (Can I advise you?) > Feb 23, 2020 10:44 AM | Report Abuse

This is almost the same answer the American trader lady gave to me.

I will repeat one more time, the purpose of putting in your long term portfolio results is not to show off how rich or great you are, but to understand in practice how you buy and when you sell, what stocks you bought that you thought were good choices but turned into turds( like how Warren buffet was not shy about admitting his decker shoes investment). Everyone can learn something from failures and winners, only those without results would think it being showoff or proud to show a trackable year by year results portfolio.

It shows a lot of your real character in being defensive and negative when one is asking about your real world performance to understand more on your selection criteria.

You remind me of Jeff skillings.

Mark to market accounting much?

Posted by Philip (Can I advise you?) > 2020-02-23 11:06 | Report Abuse

Ok. Good luck in your investing. With these kinds of questions, your arrogant tone, and your lack of results. You need every bit of it.


>>>>>>>>>>>

I would say a valuation of a company selling eggs, surimi, palm oil, things in a convenient stores selling at a PE even at of 50 (not to say 60) is way too rich. As a matter of fact, most super investors in the world would say that. Affirmative. It would be a very bad deal for me to buy it.

S tell me, can its profit double the next year, and what about the next? And why do you think at PE 60 for the kinds of business in QL, that it is still a good buy? A good buy even at PE 100? and how you justify it with some numbers? Or your great stories is good enough?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2020-02-23 11:10 | Report Abuse

Lets not argue whose method of investing is right or wrong. And especially get into talking about other people's characters. Yes people can judge themselves, like from what I have written and what you have.

You do it your way, and I do it my way (they are all over my articles in i3investor, except they are not the same as yours). You know there are so many others who are a lot more successful doing their ways. Many of them are multi-millionaires and billionaires in the Malaysia and all over the world, doing their ways. Compared with them, you and me are nothing.


Posted by Philip (Can I advise you?) > Feb 23, 2020 10:44 AM | Report Abuse

This is almost the same answer the American trader lady gave to me.

I will repeat one more time, the purpose of putting in your long term portfolio results is not to show off how rich or great you are, but to understand in practice how you buy and when you sell, what stocks you bought that you thought were good choices but turned into turds( like how Warren buffet was not shy about admitting his decker shoes investment). Everyone can learn something from failures and winners, only those without results would think it being showoff or proud to show a trackable year by year results portfolio.

It shows a lot of your real character in being defensive and negative when one is asking about your real world performance to understand more on your selection criteria.

You remind me of Jeff skillings.

Mark to market accounting much?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2020-02-23 11:16 | Report Abuse

Posted by Philip (Can I advise you?) > Feb 23, 2020 11:06 AM | Report Abuse
Ok. Good luck in your investing. With these kinds of questions, your arrogant tone, and your lack of results. You need every bit of it.

Arrogant tone? "Can I advise you"? Sounds interesting.

Lack of results? Well, you seems to know everything about other investors. Everyone is lack of result, except you, and a couple of others.

I need every bit of luck? Yes, I do. As a matter of fact, we need luck not only in investing, but everything in life. Of course you need not.

Posted by Philip (Can I advise you?) > 2020-02-23 11:35 | Report Abuse

The can I advise you was an ode to ms birkin bag lady ( too bad you don't live in Malaysia).

Lets not argue whose method of investing is right or wrong. And especially get into talking about other people's characters. Yes people can judge themselves, like from what I have written and what you have.

( You seem so quick to judge. I have posted up portfolio with results. You only have arrogant words).

The fact of the matter is: no one is asking or arguing about investing method, as you seem to have none except some nicely worded theories.

Method implies application. Application implies results. When gurus stop short of reviewing their own methods, but repeat generally accepted investment theologies, it becomes religion.

And religion does not need application, or methods.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2020-02-23 13:00 | Report Abuse

Posted by Philip (Can I advise you?) > Feb 23, 2020 11:35 AM | Report Abuse
( You seem so quick to judge. I have posted up portfolio with results. You only have arrogant words).


So how great is your result?
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/120720.jsp

How are your recent picks on PChemical and GKent compared to others who pick other stocks during the same period here?

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/stock_pick_2019/2019-12-31-story-h1481978148-Stock_Pick_Year_2019_31_DEC_2019_FINAL_Result.jsp

You are talking about results right?


Arrogant words?

Giving a strong opinion that a stock with a PE 60 is arrogant?

I tell you what, where you can find arrogant words? Go read the comments on "Can I advise you" on all other people's threads and their ways of investing.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2020-02-23 13:02 | Report Abuse

Posted by Philip (Can I advise you?) > Feb 23, 2020 11:35 AM | Report Abuse
The fact of the matter is: no one is asking or arguing about investing method, as you seem to have none except some nicely worded theories.

So no one has a investing method except the one who says, "can I advise you"?

Talking about arrogance!

Posted by Icon8888 > 2020-02-23 13:32 | Report Abuse

He used to be Philips I Hope You Learn Something From Me Today

Posted by Icon8888 > 2020-02-23 13:33 | Report Abuse

No kidding

Posted by Sslee > 2020-02-23 14:22 | Report Abuse

Haha,
He used to be Philip Fisher. No kidding. No offend. Just for your information

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-02-23 16:45 | Report Abuse

Icon8888 > Feb 23, 2020 1:32 PM | Report Abuse

He used to be Philips I Hope You Learn Something From Me Today
=========


QL up, not down............

Hope u learn some thing.......That is the proper pro approach.....not the amateur value investor approach of Kc Chong from NZ.........

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-02-23 16:47 | Report Abuse

Hope u learn some thing.......That is the proper pro approach.....not the amateur value investor approach of Kc Chong from NZ.........

definitely better than the cunt teasing, value investing trap of insas and sslee fame.......

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-02-23 16:48 | Report Abuse

but people who make money from scib and Kpoer is on another level......

Posted by Philip (Can I advise you?) > 2020-02-23 17:10 | Report Abuse

Ah we have come to the gist of the matter.

I have maintained a results oriented approach exactly for this matter. The results tracked here are since 2019, so individuals like kcchongz and icon8888 and sslee can see how I properly do my investments, when I buy, when I sell. You can clearly see me top up 6 million here when Pchem was priced at 6.3, and also when I started buying GKENT and how much. When I sell my stocks you can immediately see and question.

It is an honest conversation. You can see immediately my investing methods and whether I am with listening to.

The feature has been in i3 investor for a long time now.

Icon8888 on the other hand,

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/2019-01-30-story-h1457006496-019-_Icon_LC_Titan_Price_Collapse_Shaken_Shareholders_and_Contrarians_Scram.jsp

Writes glowing articles like these, buys at 4.15. then proceeds to keep quiet about his real results. When pushed he quietly says now that he sold at a small loss and just dipped his fingers. He talks about conviction and holding through bad times. But you don't see his volume of buying, his cut loss criteria, when he buys it when he sells.

But if course he writes beautiful pump and dump articles, being a master of buying warrants. How did his insas warrants perform? You can ask stockraider for that. But at least they both bought, so you know at heart both of them are gamblers.

Was for stock pick competition, did you even put in your picks? Ever?
If you have ( which is why I respect choivo when I compete every year), you will know stocks rarely pop out year by year and one should look at it over a long period. Hence, why I say you should track a continuous 10 year period.

As for pointing out gkent and Pchem results, I thank you for pointing it out. The conversation continues, as my goal for GKENT is a 2024 completion of LRT3 11 billion earnings and 1 billion mrt2 warnings which as on hold for negotiation with new pH government ( approved last year), and PCHEM 42 billion IPIC complex ( test run end 2019, full run 2020, normalized production 2021), my investment methods and results are clearly documented, so you cannot say when I tell you I bought PCHEM at its lowest point in 10 years (6.3), that I did not have conviction when it grew it's capacity by 3.3 million, years later. My investment methods are for multi year growth of earnings. Of course I have to buy companies which have wonderful assets, high roe, cash position, little debt, and orderbook that can fill up for the next 5-10 years. Selling at a wonderfully low valuation. Obviously I did not buy QL at a high valuation ( you can see what I bought more of in 2019), but I did pick up GKENT at all time lows, and PCHEM at all time lows.

For me, when I tell someone here I bought ql in 2009, topglove in 2010, yinson in 2012, how can I expect you to believe me when I hold until today, ask you to come over to kl to look for my remisier so I can show you my results? That would be silly.

Again, for someone who is so quick to compare results, your inability to put one up is disconcerting.

Maybe I should start writing an e-book now that I have retired.

>>>>>>>>>

Posted by kcchongnz > Feb 23, 2020 1:00 PM | Report Abuse

Posted by Philip (Can I advise you?) > Feb 23, 2020 11:35 AM | Report Abuse
( You seem so quick to judge. I have posted up portfolio with results. You only have arrogant words).


So how great is your result?
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/120720.jsp

How are your recent picks on PChemical and GKent compared to others who pick other stocks during the same period here?

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/stock_pick_2019/2019-12-31-story-h14...

Posted by kcchongnz > 2020-02-23 22:46 | Report Abuse

Posted by Philip (Can I advise you?) > Feb 23, 2020 5:10 PM | Report Abuse

"For me, when I tell someone here I bought ql in 2009, topglove in 2010, yinson in 2012, how can I expect you to believe me when I hold until today, ask you to come over to kl to look for my remisier so I can show you my results? That would be silly."

Well, I don’t think anyone would care if you have bought whatever stock in 2009, 2010, and whether you hold it until today, and how much money you have and you have made. Yes, it is damn silly to care so. What for?

"Again, for someone who is so quick to compare results, your inability to put one up is disconcerting."

Your portfolio you put up for stocks bought in 2009, 2010, 2012, and the latest Gkent and PChemical so great? As a matter of fact, many people made many times profit than those stocks buying other stocks in those years.

So what you expected for the great returns in 2021 and 2024 already realized, and with that you can go to every other people's sharing and ridicule everyone who possesses their own investing strategies?

So only the portfolio you put up matters? Other people put up many portfolios of stocks much earlier than yours are not considered as some?

"Maybe I should start writing an e-book now that I have retired."

Yeah why not if you have the ability, instead of poking fun on others' investing strategy? Then you are doing something useful. I did, and I have given a few hundred eBooks free to people in i3investor, and many thank me for that, and none of any negative comments. Isn't that more joy and fun receiving gratitude that way than poking fun on others and gain satisfaction while hurting others?

Posted by Philip (Can I advise you?) > 2020-02-24 10:38 | Report Abuse

You feel fun in poking fun at other people's strategies? Great stories and whatnot? But when the obvious point is brought up, in that you comment academically but without any substance, you say poking fun in others and gain satisfaction while hurting others?

Why is it that every "guru" responds the same when questioned on their application of theories?

When one seeks knowledge in how you apply your theories in real life, what real results you had, was every investment successful, and what is your success rate, you balk and stop short and consider it an affront?

Come on. Stop being so childish. If you are so quick to comment on other opinions, you should be ready to back it up with results. Or at the very least be honest about your investing results.

Otherwise you are another stockraider, Calvin tan, and qqq333.

FYI, if you averaged 10% a year, it would already be a cause for celebration and a validation of your investing methods that you seek to teach and write ebooks about.

Would you listen to Howard marks, Warren buffet or ray Dalio if their investment strategies were not backed up by hard results? You obviously know the answer to that.

Would you read long articles by Jon choivo, icon8888 or calvintaneng if they did not come with a history of more winners versus losers?

Obviously not.

Stop being so emotional. Investing is anything but.

Results based investing is the most important criteria in listening to ebook "advice".

Anything else is just promotion and marketing.

Or do you not agree? Would you read a book by some random guru that charges 8k per class, but makes more money from organising investing classes than investing themselves?

Try it. Apply it in real life. Start a portfolio of stocks in 2020 based on your investing acumen and knowledge and skills. Let us judge and see and applaud your 1 year,3 year, and 5 year results of your chosen stock. Or be more practical, and keep a tracked record of continuous buying and selling so we can understand how your investing mind works, and your application theories and concepts.

Be like Warren and munger.

DO AS I DO, NOT AS I SAY.

Posted by Philip (Can I advise you?) > 2020-02-24 10:56 | Report Abuse

You once remarked this in your article on QL.

To me, the most risky thing in investing is to buy something at high price.

For me price is what you pay, value is what you get. To those that don't understand value, the riskiest thing is to buy something that you don't understand.

All I am saying is, you have never recommended or written an article on a stock that you thought would be good to buy in your articles.

"In fact, let me ask him when and where KC has “recommended” to buy or sell any share in i3investor?"

You commented on QL that it is overvalued in 2018, 2019, 2020. You were proven wrong as many institutions and individuals found value and safety in the business, growing dividends and assets.

You seem to only comment on safe stocks, judge how bad it is etc. In dayang, vitrox etc etc.

Well, when the question is put to you on what stocks you thought were great, what did you buy, what did you sell, what you are holding today, etc, you seem to have no comment.

If you feel butthurt when someone points this out, it is more a measure of your character as a person than someone wanting to hurt or make fun of another person.

"Trained and worked as an Engineer. Passion in finance and investing. Later qualified as a personal financial planner and a finance and investment professional. Now engage in training in fundamental value investing through internet."

I truly believed that you were a professional.

As a professional, you must realize the importance of certification. As an investor, the only certification that is important is your stockpicking ability.

This is just facts. Not making fun of you. Not hurting you.

But the bald truth.

If you find it painful, then I apologize and will stop commenting on your blogs from now on.

I am always trying to learn something new everyday.

Peace.

Posted by Sslee > 2020-02-24 12:20 | Report Abuse

Dear Philip,
Like what EngineeringProfit wrote a good Educator will teach you, “Socratic Method of questioning (cultivate curiosity), Plato's Cave (the habit of thinking out-of-the-box) and Epicurus/critical thinking (systematic examination of factual claims). Teach them how to use their own brain more effectively, creatively and critically, so that they can adapt to the fast changing global technocratic landscape in order to survive independently; Give a Man a Fish, and You Feed Him for a Day. Teach a Man How To Fish, and You Feed Him for a Lifetime!

I have my utmost respect for KCChong as a great Educator, passionate about sharing his knowledge, philosophy, methodologies, knowhow and know what in investing to benefits those looking for guidance and who are keen in sharpen their acumen in share investment.

You don’t need to be a sport champion in order to be a successful sport coach and produce many sport champions.

Thank you
P/S: A true teacher doesn’t teach you to think like him, but to think without him. And beware of fake teacher narrating his fake credential/achievement and ask you just follow me

Posted by kcchongnz > 2020-02-24 12:52 | Report Abuse

Posted by Philip (Can I advise you?) > Feb 24, 2020 10:38 AM | Report Abuse
Try it. Apply it in real life. Start a portfolio of stocks in 2020 based on your investing acumen and knowledge and skills. Let us judge and see and applaud your 1 year,3 year, and 5 year results of your chosen stock. Or be more practical, and keep a tracked record of continuous buying and selling so we can understand how your investing mind works, and your application theories and concepts.

When did you come to i3?

In 2011 or 2012, about 10 years ago, kcchongnz was in i3 sharing his knowledge and experience, and at the same time learning from the forumers. I shared about Cold eye investment strategy, the Magic formula of Joel Greenblatt. Many people asked me if this or that stock met the requirement, and I answered them all. Many made good money out of that. I may or may not made money but that is not important.

In January 2013, Tan KW requested me to put up my own portfolio in i3 to share. That was the only two portfolios shares as what is known as Stock Pick Challenge. The other one was OTB's. In August 2013, we, just two of us shared another portfolios. I shared another one in 2014 based on dividend investment strategy. They were all came with detail analysis and valuations. And they all made extra-ordinary return in 1 year, 2-year and 3-year investing period. 3 years is a long time for most companies performance. I did not have a 10-year portfolio.

We shared our portfolios and investing strategy, both are totally different. We don't tear each other down. You know in investing, I hope you know, there are various strategies. There is absolutely nothing right or wrong, say just in value investing, or whatever investing strategy, as long as it works for you. Warren Buffett in his talk in Columbia U years ago gave praises to various investors from the Graham and Dodd's School, all making extra ordinary return, but mostly using completely different investing strategies. Nobody tears anyone down.

Ricky wrote great articles in i3investor, Choi did too, and their articles will benefit the public. Raider and Calvin have their own ways of investing. Icon has his way of investing and he had done very well. Just because they say your stock with PE 50+ is overvalued (include me too. By the way, the share price goes up doesn't mean it is overvalue. The major shareholders have their own agenda), you searched their records and tore them down.

I have changed my thought of what is sharing, just like what SSLee mentioned above.

Do you serious expect everyone sharing here must follow your way of doing, besides invest the way you do, that they must show their sausages?

Go ahead carry on doing your way if you feel good. No, you can't hurt me. I am older and hopefully wiser than you.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2020-02-24 12:55 | Report Abuse

the share price goes up doesn't mean it is not overvalue.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2020-02-24 12:57 | Report Abuse

By the way, kcchongnz is not a mysterious person as you said. Many in i3 know him. Many have met him and chat with him before. They are good friends.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2020-02-24 14:13 | Report Abuse

SSLee,

Thanks for your kind words, but it may be too flattery using on me. Thanks anyway as it is motivating, motivating to do what I am doing.

Your comments is first class (I don't mean I truly deserve it), as usual, can I use it for some kind of "promotion" purpose. Don't worry, it is for a good cause.


Posted by Sslee > Feb 24, 2020 12:20 PM | Report Abuse
Dear Philip,
Like what EngineeringProfit wrote a good Educator will teach you, “Socratic Method of questioning (cultivate curiosity), Plato's Cave (the habit of thinking out-of-the-box) and Epicurus/critical thinking (systematic examination of factual claims). Teach them how to use their own brain more effectively, creatively and critically, so that they can adapt to the fast changing global technocratic landscape in order to survive independently; Give a Man a Fish, and You Feed Him for a Day. Teach a Man How To Fish, and You Feed Him for a Lifetime!

I have my utmost respect for KCChong as a great Educator, passionate about sharing his knowledge, philosophy, methodologies, knowhow and know what in investing to benefits those looking for guidance and who are keen in sharpen their acumen in share investment.

You don’t need to be a sport champion in order to be a successful sport coach and produce many sport champions.

Thank you
P/S: A true teacher doesn’t teach you to think like him, but to think without him. And beware of fake teacher narrating his fake credential/achievement and ask you just follow me

Posted by Flintstones > 2020-02-24 15:34 | Report Abuse

Philip sifu is my idol. Respek.

Posted by Flintstones > 2020-02-24 15:34 | Report Abuse

The only thing kc chong does well is extrapolating the past

Posted by Sslee > 2020-02-24 16:00 | Report Abuse

Dear KCChong,
You deserved the praise as educator and of cause you are most welcome to use any of my humble writing. As a graduate from Chinese primary school our thinking is a little bit different from those English educated graduate, as we are more mindful of other people feeling and always keep a low profile.

三人行，必有我师
In a group of three people, there will always be one person I can learn from.

师傅领进门，修行在个人
The master teaches the trade, but the perfection of the apprentice’s skill depends on his own efforts.

青出于蓝而胜于蓝
Good education produces excellence beyond the masters: students surpass their teachers

Society can only progress if only we have unselfish teachers readily sharing their knowledge and be proud of the success of their students.

Thank you

Posted by Philip (Can I advise you?) > 2020-02-24 16:54 | Report Abuse

sports and investment is 2 different things. one is defined by age, the other is defined by results. In either case, everything that kcchongz has written so far can be repeated ad verbatim by youtube videos and reading investopedia or just reading through investing books.

but it is the real application of investment that interests me. I simply found it interesting that someone who said QL was overvalued in 2017, 2018,2019, 2020 while the shareprice and results reached all time highs, and am interested to know what kcchongz did buy in 2017,2018,2019 and 2020 instead.

but since sslee is more interested in great stories and extrapolation of the past stock performance instead of learning what stocks mr kcchongz has picked and what his real time analysis were, what went right, what went wrong, where does he go from here,

then I realized that sslee is not interested in improving his practical knowledge, but more interested in being academically proficient.

For many years, academics were championing random walk theories and efficient markets exactly because they were not getting results from buying stocks, and assumed everyone else had pretty much the same results.

The only way Warren Bufffet (and the superinvestors of doddsville) could prove them wrong was simply through the application of long term results.

It was the same with passive investing versus professional active investing. It was only after a bet was made between warren against the active managed funds (over 10 years, 1 million dollar bet), that we could have conclusive proof that fund managers mutual funds were inefficient because of the fees charged.

The vehemence of kcchongz leads me to one conclusion:

You don't have a clue what intrinsic value is. But you presume to know what price is, which is bad because you dont keep track of your results, or how it compares versus your picks. I can accept that, and will filter accordingly, the same as I do when koon yew yin promotes his golden rule concept, I dont simply take what he says, but compares it to his results to decide whether the "golden rule" is worth listening to or applying. Unfortunately (which is the case with all paid gurus), their investing methods rarely comes with long term results, so we do not know how they actually fare.

In any case, we come to a change of governments, Tun has stepped down (due to too many complaints by sslee), and the future of businesses is at hand.

As prices and valuation go crazy in unstable malaysia, if you buy stocks expecting one year, 2 year or 3 year results, then you are in for many rude surprises.

Those who buy with a long term view of business prospects 5 years, 10 years from now, will see huge opportunity in the market.



>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Posted by kcchongnz > Feb 24, 2020 12:55 PM | Report Abuse

the share price goes up doesn't mean it is not overvalue.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2020-02-24 17:08 | Report Abuse

Posted by Philip (Can I advise you?) > Feb 24, 2020 4:54 PM | Report Abuse

The vehemence of kcchongz leads me to one conclusion:
You don't have a clue what intrinsic value is.

So what is the intrinsic value of your PE 60 stock? Have you shown that you know?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2020-02-24 17:11 | Report Abuse

I hope you know what "Intrinsic Value" is.

Intrinsic value is a number. How much is it worth, and you compare with its price. It may be in a range but it is a number. And how yu estimate that number. It is not just about beautiful stories.

Posted by Philip (Can I advise you?) > 2020-02-24 17:33 | Report Abuse

Yes it is a number. It has served me well buying QL in 2009, and holding it through 2018,2019 and until currently 2020. I used qualitative models, scuttlebutt, governance, and target market figures to arrive at a figure for QL, which I deem to be currently fairly valued in 2020, and very undervalued in 2018. Obviously this is based on real application of stock purchases, holding and buying more after quarterly reports, market journals, the performance of competitors like layhong, lhi and the target market future vs competitors like CP.Foods.

You who seem to only know quantitative valuation just seek to use past extrapolated data to do your valuation.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/2019-06-12-story210548-Dayang_and_contrarian_investing_kcchongnz.jsp

what about the future? no conviction here.

You don't see any problem? Nothing at all?

That is why you have lost your underwear punting on Sendai from RM1.40 to 60 sen.

Still in denial? How to become a 200 millionaire?

Can! Go to live in Indonesia.
13/06/2019 6:52 AM

but you find the resolve to comment much about other investors. For someone who talks about understanding intrinsic value so much, you have only to see your own results to see the depth of your understanding.

Ah, it is a waste of time explaining further.

Good day to you, and GOOD DAY.

>>>>>>>>

Intrinsic Value Explained
Intrinsic value is an umbrella term with useful meanings in several areas. Most often the term implies the work of a financial analyst who attempts to estimate an asset's intrinsic value through the use of fundamental and technical analysis.

There is no universal standard for calculating the intrinsic value of a company, but financial analysts build valuation models based on aspects of a business that include qualitative, quantitative and perceptual factors.

Qualitative factors—such as business model, governance, and target markets—are those items specific to the what the business does. Quantitative factors found in fundamental analysis include financial ratios and financial statement analysis. These factors refer to the measures of how well the business performs. Perceptual factors seek to capture investors perceptions of the relative worth of an asset. These factors are largely accounted for by means of technical analysis.

Creating an effective mathematical model for weighing these factors is the bread and butter work of a financial analyst. The analyst must use a variety of assumptions and attempt to reduce subjective measures as much as possible. In the end, however, any such estimation is at least partly subjective. The analyst compares the value derived by this model to the asset's current market price to determine whether the asset is overvalued or undervalued.

Some analysts and investors might place a higher weighting on a corporation's management team while others might view earnings and revenue as the gold standard. For example, a company might have steady profits, but the management has violated the law or government regulations, the stock price would likely decline. By performing an analysis of the company's financials, however, the findings might show that the company is undervalued.

Typically, investors try to use both qualitative and quantitative to measure the intrinsic value of a company, but investors should keep in mind that the result is still only an estimate.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2020-02-24 17:41 | Report Abuse

Posted by Philip (Can I advise you?) > Feb 24, 2020 5:33 PM | Report Abuse
Yes it is a number. It has served me well buying QL in 2009, and holding it through 2018,2019 and until currently 2020. I used qualitative models, scuttlebutt, governance, and target market figures to arrive at a figure for QL, which I deem to be currently fairly valued in 2020, and very undervalued in 2018. Obviously this is based on real application of stock purchases, holding and buying more after quarterly reports, market journals, the performance of competitors like layhong, lhi and the target market future vs competitors like CP.Foods.


I thought you know what intrinsic value is. Ah just a waste of my time trying to teach you.

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-02-24 17:44 | Report Abuse

Posted by Philip (Can I advise you?) > Feb 24, 2020 4:54 PM | Report Abuse

change of governments, Tun has stepped down (due to too many complaints by sslee), and the future of businesses is at hand.
============


one who can write about gratitude and complain so much like sslee..............


goes to show knowledge and habits not the same thing.........value investors write so much about value investing but knowledge and habits not same thing...........

knowledge is the easy part, habits not so easy.


2 years already.............................social media full of complaints and manifesto not met.....................now what manifesto?.......lol.....


anwar has azmin, mahathir has muhidin.....................and that is the end of PH.....................goes to show...the biggest problem comes from people most close................scary.....


while public talking about manifesto, people are planning a new future for malaysia based on race and religion.................................one moment of negligence and it is game over for PH...........


share market same one............character and habit is real..............all the knowledge and sifus are fake................