Posted by Michael Dreamun > 2020-07-12 01:26 | Report Abuse

Totally out of touch!

Posted by greedy44444 > 2020-07-12 02:07 | Report Abuse

Good article ! Just let the party continue and see how many smiling and how many crying in the end. Human greediness has no boundary and no limit. There's no sure thing in share market. Good luck to those daredevils but big sharks always watching from afar waiting to swallow small fish.

Posted by Vc Looi > 2020-07-12 05:52 | Report Abuse

Supermx can archieved triple earning to 300 million per quarter

Posted by Jack Khan > 2020-07-12 06:18 | Report Abuse

Lol expected 300m per qr la

Posted by Goinvest88 > 2020-07-12 07:24 | Report Abuse

How about supermax profit no.1 in big 4?

Posted by freetospeak > 2020-07-12 08:03 | Report Abuse

Herbert chua also said supermax 100mil profit . ...lol...the only 2 or same person who think so.

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2020-07-12 08:04 | Report Abuse

The grapes are sour

Posted by zx08 > 2020-07-12 08:23 | Report Abuse

hello, this author please dont come out with a rubbish article and kena scold la. please read some research before post this kind of rubbish. if i can report you scam, i will report you. HELLLO, supermax 1 Quarter 100m ??? hello brother, please do your homework. dunno about glove then go back sleep ok ?? grapes are sour is correct

Posted by greedy44444 > 2020-07-12 08:59 | Report Abuse

Vaccine coming soon... all glove stocks going to slump soon... BEWARE !

Posted by greedy44444 > 2020-07-12 09:11 | Report Abuse

When price is high, manufacturers tends to produce more and more, just like the face mask facing acute shortage in the early stages of covid-19 but now is easily available with very cheap selling price because manufacturers keep on producing millions of face masks in order to take advantage of the high prices.

Posted by Stockiss > 2020-07-12 09:14 | Report Abuse

greedy44444 : Can you share your source of info? Which vaccine is coming out from which manufacturer from which country? If not, stopped spreading fear at every glove counter. Trying to lowball panic seller?

Posted by greedy44444 > 2020-07-12 09:14 | Report Abuse

Furthermore wearing glove is not compulsory in most countries compare to wearing mask. So in two to three months, same thing will happen to glove prices when market is flush with gloves. So don't risk your hard-earned money by buying glove stocks now. There are many relatively cheaper and good quality stocks in bursa that could give you better returns in percentage term and higher dividend yields.

Posted by Stockiss > 2020-07-12 09:17 | Report Abuse

greedy44444 : Manufacturing a face mask is entirely different scale, technology and capital compared to medical glove. Doesn't fit into comparison at all.

Posted by Stockiss > 2020-07-12 09:21 | Report Abuse

Posted by greedy44444 > Jul 12, 2020 9:14 AM : Furthermore wearing glove is not compulsory in most countries compare to wearing mask. So in two to three months, same thing will happen to glove prices when market is flush with gloves. So don't risk your hard-earned money by buying glove stocks now. There are many relatively cheaper and good quality stocks in bursa that could give you better returns in percentage term and higher dividend yields.

You got it in reverse, wearing a mask is not compulsory in many countries, some even went on protest to reject wearing one. Wearing a medical glove by medical pros are absolutely compulsory, along with all other protective gear. It doesn't take a genius to see such a simple basic twisted logic. Think smarter Try harder.

Posted by gloveharicut > 2020-07-12 09:27 | Report Abuse

Smart investor should read mr koon comment.

300m per quarter shouldn't be an issue

1.2B per year x PE 30 = 36B market cap

Posted by Ny036 > 2020-07-12 09:51 | Report Abuse

Vaccine come out fr USA. No way USA will get it correct. USA can't even decide to wear a mask to control the virus spread. Most likely vaccine will come out first by China follow by uk. USA will soon become a emergency country since scientist predict by end August to September , virus spread will multiply . USA will backward by at least 10 year.
Even now , Korea, Thailand , Japan, Australia no of cases going up after opening up.
India will be next big virus thing.
Most likely the progress of vaccine cannot catch up with the mutation or changes of the virus.
End of he day, mask and glove is the vaccine for the virus.

Posted by DJoker89 > 2020-07-12 09:51 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Ny036 > 2020-07-12 09:56 | Report Abuse

Produce glove is 100 time difficult compare to mask.
Need very high quality control and high technical skill.
China may able to produce but it will take time (2-3 year) to catch setup and get approval by fda of USA and Europe.
Mask , ah dog ah cat or auntie can made it at home.

Posted by Ny036 > 2020-07-12 09:58 | Report Abuse

A too democracy country will not able the control the tiny virus.

Posted by Ny036 > 2020-07-12 10:00 | Report Abuse

China will love trump win the election in November.

Posted by Totalpackage > 2020-07-12 10:10 | Report Abuse

TOTALLY a failed comparison. Mask & gloves treating it as the same animal??? Cmmon... can study more b4 posting such thing? Very embarrassing u know. Then ur profit computation so simple one ah? Like schoolboy method. Aiyo pls la.

Posted by Springtime > 2020-07-12 10:41 | Report Abuse

Thanks to the Donald T Duck & Mickey Mouse show in the US, gloves is experiencing unprecedented demands and pricing and US is Supermax biggest market. 100m profits is ticking my toes. Sure Huat Kaw Kaw this time.

Posted by see2sea > 2020-07-12 10:41 | Report Abuse

Lol..common sense la..100mil per qtr only hah? My TP=rm100 hahahaha

Posted by SUPERM > 2020-07-12 10:58 | Report Abuse

This write up is amazingly crap.
While what written about when stock price has escalated, the risk is higher, how many investors do not fathom this. Investors know that "mother is a lady", dont have to restate the fact.

It is totally crap to talk about PE of 50x, 60x ..... & so on.

I think he purposely tried to agitate others in this forum. Even a novice will by now know that Supermax is not talking about PAT RM100mil per qtr. That is history. Even PAT RM200mil per qtr will be too conservative, just like what CGS CIMB admitted that his ASP escalation on Hartalega is too conservative, and the enhanced ASP is here to stay for even FY2022.

So if OEM model is talking about ASP escalation is too conservative, just think about OBM model. By know, the consensus is FY2021 PAT will be above RM1bil, and hope that FY2022 will be able to emulate FY2021.

By then with EPS of 80sen and about, then you allocate PEx that Supermax deserves.

Anyway this is open stock market, if it is too hot for u, pls just sell and exit, or don't even join the race. Let others who embrace the same vision continue the journey.

Posted by Aaron_tan > 2020-07-12 11:08 | Report Abuse

Please. Not ah pig ah dog also can make medical gloves

Posted by andrew2020 > 2020-07-12 13:39 | Report Abuse

This author has not done enough homework when writting this article.

Posted by goldenhorn > 2020-07-12 14:49 | Report Abuse

From TA point of view, Macd high now.bad news will start to come out.funny bloggers will tell u overvalued stories intentionally or unintentionally. let the last washing come n become the last chance to onboard cheaper.lol....if coming quarter 100mil I cut paper bird.

Posted by kelvin3638 > 2020-07-12 14:50 | Report Abuse

No comment on this useless articles without objective analysis

Posted by speakup > 2020-07-12 15:20 | Report Abuse

aiyoh, stock market is like MUSICAL CHAIRS!
when the music is on, everybody make money.
when the music stop, everybody rush to get out.

the real question is: when will it stop? tomorrow? next week? next month? next 3 months? Nobody knows! And when it stops, you dont want to be the one still standing up without a seat!

Posted by infinity888 > 2020-07-12 15:26 | Report Abuse

another sour grapes article without thinking and knowing the industry ... how can gloves compared to face masks LOL ! what a joke

Posted by speakup > 2020-07-12 15:30 | Report Abuse

last time iris goreng up from 10sen to over rm1! rumour was US wanted to buy iris technology for its national ID. when the music was on, everybody happy happy. when the music stopped suddenly, everybody mad rush for exit, want to get out also cannot.

now as far as gloves are concerned, the music is ON! until when? nobody really knows. Anybody who claims to know is just guessing, like u & me

Posted by speakup > 2020-07-12 15:31 | Report Abuse

buy or sell gloves at your own risk
make money, thank youself, nobody else.
lose money, blame youself. nobody else.

Posted by speakup > 2020-07-12 15:36 | Report Abuse

biasalah, this is the stock market. every time sure got some goreng shares. now it's tech & gloves. next time will be ___, ___, etc. only the company names changed, the goreng herd behaviour is the same.

Posted by speakup > 2020-07-12 15:38 | Report Abuse

if u buy or sell gloves, do at your own risk. nobody is putting a gun over your head to buy or sell.

Posted by speakup > 2020-07-12 15:40 | Report Abuse

everybody is entitled to their own opinion. some say undervalued, some say overvalued. there is no right, no wrong, just opinions!
so dont blame the writer of this article. it's just his/her opinion.

Posted by Tobby > 2020-07-12 15:43 | Report Abuse

I mean, tell me, who was the first few who came out calling buy when Supermax was only 1.60! Now who are those calling to buy more when Supermax hit 11.00!

Posted by speakup > 2020-07-12 15:48 | Report Abuse

example:
before the US subprime crisis in 2008, there were some ppl were saying the US housing market was overheated, but these ppl were ridiculed by the finance and banking fraternity.
finally when the housing bubble burst, these ppl were worshipped. Hollywood even made a movie honouring them - "The Big Short".

now back to malaysia. As we are in a glove bull run, the glove naysayers are ridiculed. not surprisingly.

Posted by Wisdom for Freedom > 2020-07-12 16:07 | Report Abuse

I believe most of you have made a good fortune out of this stock. I congratulate you sincerely. If you have a kind heart you will continue to make money.

The estimated earning might be ignorant from your perspective because an IB even predicted 350M earning the next quarter. But will it maintain this record high earning the subsequent quarters is another question. Imagine if you were a glove buyer, you have no choice but to buy higher ASP stocks the first few times because it's urgent, but in the background you will definitely be all out to source worldwide few cheaper suppliers to keep the cost down, else you will most likely be screwed. And the supply will catch up eventually. This is business 101. My point here is not to predict the EPS correctly, but more to an idea to point out where do we stand in the current situation. I actually hope the IB is right. But the key point is, is it sustainable? Do we have an exit strategy?

A cold water at this time is definitely potong stim. I'm sorry. But you have to understand there are so many new and young investors in the market now are losing rationality to the glove craze, and wrong mindset is instilled that making money is that easy without realizing that this is actually not a market norm but unprecedented and exceptional one. This will be harmful to their future investment journey when they made money at this kind of situation, overestimating the ability but underestimating the luck factor.

Some say i have ill intention. Yes. But my ill intention is to myself. Because i'm holding the same stock like you too. I believe it will continue to head higher in short term because looks like the sentiment is still intact. But I'm trying to balance myself between greed and fear. Period.

Let's promote rational discussion.

Posted by Jack Khan > 2020-07-12 17:08 | Report Abuse

speakup say la you already exit at 10.88. Sakit hati ke ?

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2020-07-13 09:34 | Report Abuse

You don't get rational discussion out of euphoria. As Ben Franklin said, appeal to interest, not reasoning. And it isn't in the majority's interest who, either have made so much money on gloves stocks, or just getting into the game to hear information that goes against their interest.

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2020-07-13 09:48 | Report Abuse

the problem isn't about whether Supermax is gonna make $100 mil or $300 mil next quarter or the qtr after. The question is how sustainable is it at this level of earnings and margin, and what is the normalised earnings? Sure, if Supermax can sustain $300 mil per quarter or $1.2 bil per year, that could perfectly justify current valuation of $20 bil. But if they can't, then where does the $20 bil market cap leave you, that is the risk?

Another thing to remember is there is a 'rush' of stockpiling gloves throughout the entire supply chain from manufacturers like Supermax all the way to end users i.e hospitals. That is why there is such a margin expansion. No one know how much 'backlog' orders are in the supply chain now. Everyone is afraid of not getting their orders so natural behavior tells you to 'over-order' just to be safe, hence creating a massive backlog from distributors, wholesalers to manufacturers. That is why you see all manufacturers ramp up productions to meet the demand. However, when COVID settles down (a possibility that can happen even without a vaccine), how long would it takes to clear out those stockpile coming from the backlog, that is a big thing. So what you can possibly see is Supermax has such an outstanding quarter after quarter of $300 mil and suddenly revenue collapse when everyone realised there are too much stockpile that they have to stop ordering from Supermax or any other manufacturers just to clear them off.

Posted by GeniusTinker > 2020-07-13 13:53 | Report Abuse

100million per quarter? You still have no idea what is happening out there.

Posted by Jack Khan > 2020-07-13 16:17 | Report Abuse

Ricky Yeo what are you talking? After we sell then we join you promote sell lo! Now still holding lol

Posted by tips888 > 2020-07-13 16:34 | Report Abuse

I SOLD MY SHOP LOT FOR SUPERMAX. HOPING TO BUY MORE WHEN I CASH OUT 9 MONTHS LATER.

Posted by Wisdom for Freedom > 2020-07-13 23:21 | Report Abuse

That's one good common sense point.


"Ricky Yeo Another thing to remember is there is a 'rush' of stockpiling gloves throughout the entire supply chain from manufacturers like Supermax all the way to end users i.e hospitals. That is why there is such a margin expansion. No one know how much 'backlog' orders are in the supply chain now. Everyone is afraid of not getting their orders so natural behavior tells you to 'over-order' just to be safe, hence creating a massive backlog from distributors, wholesalers to manufacturers. That is why you see all manufacturers ramp up productions to meet the demand. However, when COVID settles down (a possibility that can happen even without a vaccine), how long would it takes to clear out those stockpile coming from the backlog, that is a big thing. So what you can possibly see is Supermax has such an outstanding quarter after quarter of $300 mil and suddenly revenue collapse when everyone realised there are too much stockpile that they have to stop ordering from Supermax or any other manufacturers just to clear them off."

Posted by Wisdom for Freedom > 2020-07-13 23:23 | Report Abuse

I'm surprised with the attacking comments like i have an influence to the stock price movement. And the point i want to convey was totally diverted to whether it's 100M or 300M per quarter..but this is merely an example. The idea is, the stock price is fragile in the sense that is built based on the sky high sentiment. One may argue it's backed by super bright prospect. Yes. Now that the expectation has been set to so high that a small little negative news is enough to collapse the price. Experienced player may take cover and run in time. How about inexperienced players who swim naked?

Price vs Value.
Trading vs Investing

Trading is when you buy with lower price and expect to sell with higher price
Investing is about finding good business, value its growth and be a shareholder.

Both ways earn money. Just different approach.
To me currently buying glove stocks is more like trading rather than investing.

Those who has already made a good fortune from glove, congratulation! Remember to take cover.

Those who has not. Need not feel sad. Observe the entire process, develop critical thinking, sharpen your investment knowledge, don't miss in the next round as there are still plenty of opportunities.

Buy what you understand and win. You will be able to replicate the results.
If you buy something you don't understand and win, whether is good luck or bad luck, who knows?






"Ricky Yeo You don't get rational discussion out of euphoria. As Ben Franklin said, appeal to interest, not reasoning. And it isn't in the majority's interest who, either have made so much money on gloves stocks, or just getting into the game to hear information that goes against their interest."

Posted by khyeap > 2020-07-14 11:05 | Report Abuse

It's not wrong to take profit now . Don't be too greedy . After all the big punters left , you might regret you are still in the train when the train crashed. History repeating itself 1997.

Posted by seekingalpha888 > 2020-07-14 15:32 | Report Abuse

It's a well written article by Wisdom putting the basics of supply and demand back in the picture. I'm a value investor myself but with the craziness, I've also jumped in to swim with the sharks. Let the party continue. Tomorrow, RM20! Huat ah!

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2020-07-16 14:08 | Report Abuse

@seekingalpha - Calling yourself a value investor doesn't make you one.