Posted by calvintaneng > 2021-08-14 11:25 | Report Abuse

CynicalCyan

You are correct on local tech stocks

US's Apple looks ok

If Fed continues money printing Bitcoin and Ethereum will also go up

If not still local tech stocks now too high in valuation

Cepat earns 3.07 sen just like Greatec earning same 3.07 sen but Cepat is less than 10% of Greatec

That is why we should go for undervalue palm oil shares as a whole

Over a short term the stock market is a voting machine but over a longer term the stock market turns into a weighing machine

Posted by stockraider > 2021-08-14 11:34 | Report Abuse

Of course local tech will benefit mah!

What is good for Apple will be good for local tech mah, bcos alot of them get business servicing the very big boys mah!

Posted by calvintaneng > Aug 14, 2021 11:25 AM | Report Abuse

CynicalCyan

You are correct on local tech stocks

US's Apple looks ok

If Fed continues money printing Bitcoin and Ethereum will also go up

If not still local tech stocks now too high in valuation

Cepat earns 3.07 sen just like Greatec earning same 3.07 sen but Cepat is less than 10% of Greatec

That is why we should go for undervalue palm oil shares as a whole

Over a short term the stock market is a voting machine but over a longer term the stock market turns into a weighing machine

Posted by calvintaneng > 2021-08-14 11:45 | Report Abuse

Hahaha Sifu Stockraider must have invested in local tech stocks alot

Ok

Hope you do well

Posted by stockraider > 2021-08-14 11:54 | Report Abuse

Let it be rational loh!

I have some position in SAM, but this is small compare to my Palm oil stock company like FGV, Taan, tsh, jayatiasa loh!

But we must report & anlyse correctly mah!

Posted by calvintaneng > Aug 14, 2021 11:45 AM | Report Abuse

Hahaha Sifu Stockraider must have invested in local tech stocks alot

Ok

Hope you do well

Posted by treasurehunt > 2021-08-14 12:11 | Report Abuse

Talking so much about earnings peak in glove sector in last 6 months. Earnings peak of Nesdaq companies in next 6 months.

Posted by stockraider > 2021-08-14 12:15 | Report Abuse

Gloves no barrier of entry mah!

Cincai people like mahsing with no previous glove experience can set up gloves production & become one of top gloves producer in msia within 6 mths loh! Thus u can expect a glut in future gloves mkt loh!

In technology...u cannot do that...there are huge barrier of entry..in terms of technology knowhow mah!

Lu tau boh ?

Posted by treasurehunt > Aug 14, 2021 12:11 PM | Report Abuse

Talking so much about earnings peak in glove sector in last 6 months. Earnings peak of Nesdaq companies in next 6 months.

Posted by treasurehunt > 2021-08-14 12:17 | Report Abuse

Kua orang biasa ma. You pandai dan tahu semua lor. Cukup keh?

Posted by calvintaneng > 2021-08-14 12:19 | Report Abuse

Sam engineering is ok. It's forward P/E is 19.5
Others like Widetech, greactec, Mi and Frontken are way too high to chase

As for gloves the peak of earnings will be impacted by gross overproduction just like face masks

Posted by treasurehunt > 2021-08-14 12:19 | Report Abuse

Kau pandai dan tahu semua seluruh dunia berapa billion kali. Cukup tak?

Posted by calvintaneng > 2021-08-14 12:22 | Report Abuse

Hahaha

We discuss ideas in friendly ways here

Posted by treasurehunt > 2021-08-14 12:39 | Report Abuse

High bearer of entry in Technology sector but the sector is encountering serious shortage wafer supply. It takes more than 2 years to build extra capacity. How on earth technology companies able to increase robust turnover and earnings in year 2022?


https://techcet.com/wafer-supply-constrained-through-2024-likely/

Posted by stockraider > 2021-08-14 12:41 | Report Abuse

Thats why big prospect bcos of big demand & wafer shortage....very big existing back log orders to fulfil mah!


Posted by treasurehunt > Aug 14, 2021 12:39 PM | Report Abuse

High bearer of entry in Technology sector but the sector is encountering serious shortage wafer supply. It takes more than 2 years to build extra capacity. How on earth technology companies able to increase robust turnover and earnings in year 2022?

Posted by treasurehunt > 2021-08-14 12:45 | Report Abuse

No extra capacity, that would mean consumers electronic companies like Apple's turnover and earnings peaking in 6 months.

Posted by treasurehunt > 2021-08-14 12:48 | Report Abuse

Technology chips selling price won't increase like what had happened in glove sector.

Posted by stockraider > 2021-08-14 12:48 | Report Abuse

Itu kereta punya chips lah...mana apple punya chips leh ?


Posted by treasurehunt > Aug 14, 2021 12:45 PM | Report Abuse

No extra capacity, that would mean consumers electronic companies like Apple's turnover and earnings peaking in 6 months.

Posted by treasurehunt > 2021-08-14 12:52 | Report Abuse

Consumer electronics producers and atomative makers are fighting for chips.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2021-08-14 12:53 | Report Abuse

Actually people should worry about food more than computer chips shortfall

No chips won't die but no food will cause famine

Now already Aug 21 yet palm oil stocks only 1.5 million tonnes

Later if not enough palm oil, wheat flour, corn or soybean how ??

There will be panic buying

Posted by treasurehunt > 2021-08-14 12:57 | Report Abuse

" Now, the impact of the supply crunch is spreading to consumer tech. Apple CEO Tim Cook warned last week that a limited supply of semiconductors would hurt sales of iPhones. Microsoft is struggling to make enough Xbox consoles and Surface laptops. Elon Musk told a court last month that the chip shortage meant Tesla would only be able to manufacture about half as many Powerwall home batteries as it thinks it can sell. "

https://www.google.com.vn/amp/s/www.vox.com/platform/amp/recode/2021/8/5/22611031/chip-shortage-cars-electronics-automakers-gm-tesla-playstation-xbox

Posted by stockraider > 2021-08-14 13:01 | Report Abuse

Actually food is low tech & can get many substitute loh!

Bcos...we are technology so advance in food production...we can easily cover the food requirement mah!

These days...there is no famine....if there is a shortages...u just pay more loh...like palmoil u get supply mah!

but for chips....when there is a shortages mean shortages...cannot get supply even u willing to pay more mah!

Bcos not many can produce loh!


Posted by calvintaneng > Aug 14, 2021 12:53 PM | Report Abuse

Actually people should worry about food more than computer chips shortfall

No chips won't die but no food will cause famine

Now already Aug 21 yet palm oil stocks only 1.5 million tonnes

Later if not enough palm oil, wheat flour, corn or soybean how ??

There will be panic buying

Posted by abang_misai > 2021-08-14 13:03 | Report Abuse

I would like to thank calvin tan for his warning he dished out timely so that many can get out as soon as possible to protect capitals

Posted by hexiao > 2021-08-14 13:04 | Report Abuse

so many mentions of palm oil counters. obviously another FUD to distract tech investors for his palm oil Pump & Dump scheme. KYY in the making

Posted by treasurehunt > 2021-08-14 13:15 | Report Abuse

Upstream players, Wafer & chips manufacturers will be fetching good profits next year as chips supply crunch has occurred and many tender high prices to secure their requirements. It doesn't mean downstream players would be benefited as well.

Posted by treasurehunt > 2021-08-14 13:36 | Report Abuse

Anyway, long haul investors of mid & downstream industries would ignore the short and mid term effect of the supply crunch. It is back to your investment horizon in the end.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2021-08-14 16:53 | Report Abuse

abang_misai I would like to thank calvin tan for his warning he dished out timely so that many can get out as soon as possible to protect capitals
14/08/2021 1:03 PM

Noted.Thank you.

Posted by brian3381 > 2021-08-14 18:35 | Report Abuse

Y cry father cry mother warn ppl to sell tech? Even tech down, palm oil counters oso wont up. Wasting time only

Posted by treasurehunt > 2021-08-14 19:08 | Report Abuse

TSMC announces the turnover every month. It is a source to track bottleneck output volume and gauge the max capacity and the how long the crunch situation persist.

Posted by treasurehunt > 2021-08-14 20:36 | Report Abuse

IBs have been talking so much dropping of glove ASP until 2 years later. No IB mention the consequences of supply crunch semiconductor chips from now to 2 years later. All IBs are shouting technology growth nonstop without taking a breath in the middle.

Posted by stockraider > 2021-08-15 10:12 | Report Abuse

go for it!

Palmoil due for rerating mah!

Posted by calvintaneng > 2021-08-15 13:21 | Report Abuse

NOW SHOWING: THE TRILOGY OF FAST & FURIOUS SHOWS
PART 15
--- 1 - TOP PICK POSITIVE CORPORATE EXERCISE STOCK SIMILAR TO
IJM PLANTATION / 2216

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/see_research/2021-08-14-story-h1569741319-NOW_SHOWING_THE_TRILOGY_OF_FAST_FURIOUS_SHOWS_PART_15_1_TOP_PICK_POSITI.jsp

Posted by treasurehunt > 2021-08-15 13:56 | Report Abuse

TSMC output will be hitting max 3rd Qtr 2021. No room for adding new capacity over the next 2 years. What would happen to the mid and downstream players in next 2 years?

Revenue 'million

30 Jun 21 - TWD 13,289
31 Mar 21 - TWD 12,919
31 Dec 20 - TWD 12.676
30 Sep 20 - TWD 12,138
30 Jun 20 - TWD 10,385

Posted by treasurehunt > 2021-08-15 14:11 | Report Abuse

Guess how many of mid and downstream players would achieve double digit growth in next 2 years...

OSAT ( MPI, Unisem, Inari & Gtronic )
ATE ( Aemulus, Greatec, MI, Penta, Qes,Vis, Vitrox )
EMS ( Ataims, Eg, PIE, SkPres & VS)
Led ( D&O, Jhm)
HDD ( Dufu, Genetec, Jcy, Notion)

Posted by shpg22 > 2021-08-15 17:44 | Report Abuse

Sell at bottom, buy at peak. Shortcut to rags.

Posted by treasurehunt > 2021-08-16 10:26 | Report Abuse

Global OSAT & ATE & EMS players valuation.

OSAT (PER)
ASE 15x
Amkor 14x

ATE (PER)
Teradyne 23x
Advantest 23x
Chroma 19x

EMS (PER)
Foxconn - PER 17x
Wistron - PER 8x
Jabil - PER 16x

Posted by calvintaneng > 2021-08-16 10:54 | Report Abuse

per of mhc plant and Riverview both below 10

Posted by calvintaneng > 2021-08-16 10:55 | Report Abuse

per of all palm oil will improve lower and lower

Posted by treasurehunt > 2021-08-16 11:07 | Report Abuse

Global HDD players valuation.
HDD (PER)
Seagate 16x
Western Digital 24x

Posted by treasurehunt > 2021-08-16 15:10 | Report Abuse

The market has priced in semiconductor companies to report better profits in the next 2 quarters max. No big deal. Everyone knows well and it is similar with the investors know glove ASP decreasing as new supply capacity emerged.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2021-08-16 16:25 | Report Abuse

Correct

Gloves have gone up into peak cycles and now gradually descending

2 factors

1. All glove companies saw peak earnings and some gave bonus issues and many spending money in bullish expansion

New glove wannabees joining in will end in glut

China also join the glove bandwagon

As a result the future will be flooded with gloves everywhere

Posted by calvintaneng > 2021-08-16 16:26 | Report Abuse

Tech has its futures all priced in

Little upside as the balloon so bloated and in danger of explosion or implosion

Posted by calvintaneng > 2021-08-16 16:27 | Report Abuse

Palm oil?

Still so unloved

So since still so cheap downside will be limited

Upside potential is immense

Posted by treasurehunt > 2021-08-16 17:31 | Report Abuse

Bursa Malaysia's OSAT & ATE & EMS players valuation.

OSAT (PER)
Gtronic - 27x
Inari -35x
MPI - 35x
Unisem - 33x

ATE (PER)
Aemulus - 82x
MI - 50x
Penta - 55x
QES - 52x
VIS - 35x
Vitrox - 63x

EMS (PER)
Ataims - 21x
EG - 31x
PIE - 18x
SKpres - 22x
VS - 22x

HDD (PER)
Dufu - 35x

LED (PER)
D&O - 108x
JHM - 48x

Hybrid
Greatec - 66x
Kobay -64x
SAM - 31x
UWC - 70x

Posted by treasurehunt > 2021-08-16 19:49 | Report Abuse

TSMC is the price setter of semiconductor chips and the market offers merely PER 30x. The company will keep growing in next 2 years as they can simply increase prices of the products. TSMC, Samsung and Intel had their plans for the new chips factory. Unfortunately, the new capacity will only be ready after 30 months.

In the absent of new chips capacity, how on earth our Bursa OSAT, ATE and EMS to grow the business in year 2022 and 2023?

Posted by treasurehunt > 2021-08-17 10:56 | Report Abuse

Global chip shortage may last until 2023, says Infineon CEO
Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Tue, 17 Aug 2021, 10:37 AM

FRANKFURT: The global chip shortage that’s hampering companies from carmakers to computer manufacturers may linger for years, according to Germany’s biggest semiconductor company, Infineon Technologies AG.

The scarcity “may stretch into 2023” in areas where capacity expansion is slow to catch up with consumer demand, Reinhard Ploss, chief executive officer of Infineon, said in an interview with Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.

“Building new facilities and clean rooms in which the silicon wafers are processed into chips can take two to two and a half years; upgrading existing facilities three quarters to one year,” he said.

The chip crunch this year is hurting production at companies from Tesla Inc to Apple Inc and Microsoft Corp.

The amount of time it’s taking for manufacturers to get orders filled stretched to more than 20 weeks in July, worsening from the previous month, research by Susquehanna Financial Group showed.

Increased work-from-home needs and the catch-up effect in the automotive industry following pandemic-fuelled delays have become major drivers for the chip industry, according to Ploss. He also cited faster adoption of electric cars and growing demand for renewable energy among factors contributing to the shortage.

Among European companies affected is Volvo Car AB.

Its plant in Ghent, Belgium plant won’t run for three days next week due to chip shortages with some 5,000 workers being temporarily unemployed, the De Tijd newspaper reported, citing a company spokesperson.

The plant had shut for five days in the first half for similar reasons.

Ploss called for more efforts in Europe to reduce the continent’s dependence on foreign exporters in the semiconductor business.

He’s “open” to cooperating with other companies as long as it fits Infineon’s business strategy, he said.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2021-08-17 22:10 | Report Abuse

China Tech Fanatics already lost USD1.2 TRILLIONS (RM5 TRILLIONS WIPED OUT!!)

Still want to play Tech Bubbles?

See

https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3144807/alibabas-40-price-downgrades-us12-trillion-tech-wipeout

Posted by treasurehunt > 2021-08-17 22:42 | Report Abuse

Shortage of microchips to fuel the growth of 5G,Iot and Electric Vehicles. Come back to semiconductor 2 years later

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-01-13 22:21 | Report Abuse

After tech bubble burst will come banks

Sell all bank stocks before they crash like Tech

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-01-14 05:55 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Intrinsic99 > 2022-01-14 08:05 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by treasurehunt > 2022-01-14 08:09 | Report Abuse

Ah Tan. Your mind is over cloud with palm oil and see nothing else outside. Bubble hasn't even starting forming in Banking sector.

Posted by Intrinsic99 > 2022-01-14 08:29 | Report Abuse

Sime Darby Plantation warns labour shortage may get worse for plantation companies in 1Q

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/sime-darby-plantation-sees-labour-shortages-worsening-early-2022


[[The shortage of workers has been identified as the cause of the 20% to 30% decline in the production of fresh fruit bunches.

"Our palm oil (industry) may not grow as stellar as before, due to limitation of plantation areas and we cannot compare the volume with Indonesia]]

Management already given performance warning so need more alert