Posted by novice2020 > 2021-11-08 10:42 | Report Abuse

Environmental groups (Possibly IB's fund managers in disguised) can continue to attack Plantation companies with ESG, what the companies can do is to continue with their constructive works. Sooner or later, the truths will prevail. Good will triumph over evil!

Posted by Intrinsic99 > 2021-11-08 11:04 | Report Abuse

CPO prices expected to be lower in 2022, say market analysts (The Star - Saturday, 16 Oct 2021)

UOB Kay Hian Research maintains its “underweight” rating on the plantation sector

The research unit is keeping its CPO price forecast for 2021 and 2022 at RM3,300 and RM2,800 per tonne respectively

CPO prices may sustain at the current levels due to the continued disappointing palm oil production as yield recovery from the previous drought is taking longer than expected

It also notes that risks include rising fertiliser costs due to supply constraints. As fertiliser cost (30% of ex-mill cost) is one of the biggest components besides labour cost, the surge in fertiliser prices could lead to a cost increase of at least 15% to 20%


RHB Research also maintains its “underweight” rating on the plantation sector

It advises investors to ride the wave and look for opportunities to sell into strength, with CPO prices currently at a peak, and some strength being seen in share prices.

“The main risk to this thesis is weather abnormalitie. Share prices have, for the first time this year, started moving in tandem with CPO prices. We believe now is the time to ride the wave, and wait for a good opportunity to lock in some profits, adding that environmental, social, and governance (ESG) concerns will still impact sector valuations”


https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2021/10/16/cpo-prices-expected-to-be-lower-in-2022-say-market-analysts


What we can observe market behaviour now is most of the fund managers start to revise outlook for CPO in the upcoming season, most of experts had expected the CPO prise shall be normalised in tandem.

Fund managers strongly believe that plantation companies shall be adjusted lower heading Trailing Twelve Months (TTM), that’s why most of the research houses given underweight outlook.

This is the reason why plantation sector not so fancy like year 2020 glove sector, fund managers strongly believe that once the CPO price normalise so ASP also simultaneously adjusted lower.

One of the good example to review is glove sector, what happen for the year 2020 compare with year 2021. Once most of the fund managers revise neutral or underweight outlook, we all can see the respective sector (or respective stocks) will start decelerating.

Despite glove sector still handsomely profitable for the next few years but most of the share traders more bias to ASP will be adjusted accordingly. This scenario is same with plantation sector as well.

If we want to enjoy fancy profit from the share price margin at this moment, we need to thoroughly consider is it the right time to challenge current circumstances since market had given cognitive lesson for the past of glove sector.

If we want to enjoy dividend yield (only selective planters), it’s fine to accumulate rather than putting your funds at the banks but now not aware current share price is it wisely to enter since plantation sector bias to neutral or underweight.

Posted by value_seeker > 2021-11-08 11:06 | Report Abuse

What analysts write are reports for us to value the companies. One thing for sure market is much forward looking than analysts. Market value the price of a stock based on many things with profits, PE and future growth story. I believe the market will increase the stock valuation of plantation companies in next few months. One thing we must agreed is the land area is one thing that cannot increase y itself. With the initiative of governments to stop openning of new land to cultivate palm oil, the price CPO will increase. The number of people in the Earth is increasing thus require more resources for their daily consumption.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2021-11-08 12:16 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by treasurehunt > 2021-11-08 12:24 | Report Abuse

Nothing new from the IBs. If a company sell all forward CPO from Jan 22 contract to Jun 22, the average CPO price for the 1st half also hit 4400 m/t la.