Showing ascending triangle attribute. RSI at 50%. 20MA above 40. +DI curving up. For the past two rebounds, Bolinger mid line seems to be its support. Show time soon.
-A+A KUALA LUMPUR (March 18): While sentiment on the construction sector is seen to have somewhat recovered, construction stocks are seen to be running ahead of its fundamentals, according to MIDF Amanah Investment Bank Bhd Research.
In a report today, MIDF Research's Muhammad Danial Abd Razak highlighted that further extension to the gains must be underpinned by commensurable growth in forward earnings, as sectorial price momentum has thus far outperformed the broader market.
"As of writing, we think the sector is still lacking solid catalysts which extend beyond the current visibility," said Muhammad Danial, downgrading the sector to "neutral" from "positive".
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Going ahead, further gains must be driven by strength in earnings and prospects, said Danial, which he believes the sector players will remain beneficiaries of from existing projects, namely light rail transit line 3 (LRT3) and mass rapid transit line 2 (MRT2), and given its size of more than RM40 billion combined that is expected to support earnings in the immediate to medium term.
"We believe public projects comprising railways will continue to hold a significant share in the local industry, as potential roll-out of similar scale remains a possibility," said Muhammad Danial.
Nonetheless, Muhammad Danial suggested that near-term challenges will gravitate towards execution as he explained that the conversion from project delivery partner (PDP) to turnkey structure means contractors will need to bear the execution risk.
"Managing it well will likely translate to better margin, derived from the work progress completed," he said, adding that the extension period given for LRT3 should provide headroom for contractors to better allocate and spread out their resources.
He noted that upside risk to the sector could potentially be the revival of East Coast Rail Link (ECRL) project, should a meaningful portion be shared with local contractors.
Recall that previously local contractors could be allotted at least 30% of the civil works, as sub-contractors, worth about RM16.5 billion, he said.
Additionally, Muhammad Danial opined that the recent announcement on the takeover of Gamuda Bhd's toll highways is an added overhang factor, given that the company is a Bursa Malaysia Construction Index heavyweight.
For potential exposures, he suggested investors to take a closer look on companies with niche expertise and healthy balance sheet, namely Gabungan AQRS Bhd (BUY, target price (TP): RM1.87) and Muhibbah Engineering (M) Bhd (BUY, TP: RM3.15).
Notably, Muhammad Danial said seven out of eleven construction companies under the research house's coverage ended the year within and above the yearly estimates, with Muhibbah and KKB Engineering Bhd both posting results beyond expectations.
However, he downgraded Sunway Construction Group Bhd (+30.8% gain since January) and Gamuda (+29% gain since January) to neutral, from buy, as the previously beaten-down counters have recently risen close to their fair values.
Meanwhile, Muhammad Danial noted that the immediate prospect looks brighter in Sarawak as the state government has recently announced a record budget of RM9.1 billion for development.
Accordingly, the amount will be used to fund a few major infra projects including the Coastal Road, Second Trunk Road and the Water Grid Project.
"Following our optimistic view on Sarawak, we would recommend investors to consider Cahya Mata Sarawak Bhd (BUY, TP: RM4.13) and KKB Engineering (BUY, TP: RM1.33), which we opine to be the front-runner for the pending roll-out of the infrastructure projects aforementioned," said Muhammad Danial.
Construction stocks
Company Share price (RM)* YTD change (%) YTD change (RM) Market Cap (RM, MIL) IJM Corp Bhd 1.99 23.46 0.42 7,252.60 Gamuda Bhd 2.92 24.79 0.67 7,207.06 Cahya Mata Sarawak Bhd 3.39 25.65 0.65 3,625.18 Malaysian Resources Corp Bhd 0.815 32.52 0.21 3,585.88 Sunway Construction Group Bhd 1.86 38.35 0.54 2,377.73 Lafarge Malaysia Bhd 2.19 22.65 0.38 1,886.32 Ekovest Bhd 0.565 25.84 0.13 1,197.98 WCT Holdings Bhd 0.83 22.22 0.15 1,139.00 George Kent (M) Bhd 1.17 40.12 0.37 630.18 Gabungan AQRS Bhd
MRCB is introducing the country's first volumetric building system by year end, which is a combination of prefabricated prefinished volumetric constructions and a jointing system known as the candle-loc, is a step up from the currrent IBS used by the industry for precast buildings;
CHINA TO SHAVE US$2.4 BILLION OFF COST OF MALAYSIA’S EAST COAST RAIL LINK. BUT WILL IT BE ENOUGH? BY TASHNY SUKUMARAN 25 MAR 2019 Malaysia’s chief negotiator on the controversial Beijing-backed project, Daim Zainuddin, says a revised deal would send ‘a lot more Malaysia’s way’ But experts say the final terms of the deal – previously criticised by PM Mahathir Mohamad as biased in China’s favour – remain obscure 9 A model of the East Coast Rail Link project during its ground breaking ceremony in Kuantan, Malaysia in 2017. Two years on, the project is mired in uncertainty. Photo: Xinhua A model of the East Coast Rail Link project during its ground breaking ceremony in Kuantan, Malaysia in 2017. Two years on, the project is mired in uncertainty. Photo: Xinhua The Chinese government has offered to cut 10 billion ringgit (US$2.45 billion) off the price of Malaysia’s controversial East Coast Rail Link in an effort to get the project back on track before world leaders gather in Beijing for a summit on the “Belt and Road Initiative”. Whether that will be enough to gain a green light for the long-stalled project is anyone’s guess.
Malaysia’s lead negotiator on the China-backed project, Daim Zainuddin, said last week that Beijing was hoping a revised deal could be finalised by April 2, weeks before Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad heads to China for the April 25-27 meeting.
Malaysia scraps China-backed East Coast Rail Link plan over price Daim said that in addition to the savings, revisions to the deal would ensure “a lot more comes [Malaysia’s] way”. Though Daim did not specify what he meant by this, the project has long faced accusations that its terms are biased in China’s favour. The rail link was among various China-linked projects that Mahathir either suspended or cancelled after his election in May last year. The 93-year-old leader had attacked the projects as inessential and costly and claimed his scandal-tainted predecessor Najib Razak had offered Chinese contractors a “sweetheart deal” as a quid pro quo for bailing out Malaysia’s state investment fund 1MDB.
Malaysia’s government adviser Daim Zainuddin with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing in July. Photo: AFP Since then a question mark has hung over the rail link, with government ministers giving conflicting accounts over whether a deal was still a live option.
Daim said there was now reason for optimism. “We may be able to resolve this as soon as possible,” he said. “I have a good relationship with [the Chinese] as I have known them since 1971. Maybe they are comfortable with me. I am an old man,” said Daim, who was finance minister from 1984 to 1991 during Mahathir’s first stint as prime minister and is now chairman of the government’s Council of Eminent Persons.
Mahathir says stalled Chinese rail link can go ahead on ‘smaller scale’ However, experts criticised Daim’s comments as being “vague” and pointed out he had not given a definitive figure for the cost of the project, estimates of which have varied wildly according to the source.
Najib had originally claimed the project would cost 55 billion ringgit, but the most recent figure put forward by Mahathir was that the true cost of the 688km line would be 130 billion ringgit. Which figure Daim is using as a basis for his 10 billion ringgit reduction is unclear or – as Dr Ngeow Chow Bing of University Malaya’s Institute of China Studies put it – “a bit vague”.
Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad has been accused by some of being anti-China. Photo: AP Ngeow said Daim’s figure was surprising as he thought Kuala Lumpur was pursuing a greater reduction in cost. “So I am confused … [the contractor China Communication Construction Company] has already offered to halve the cost, which is already a reduction of more than 10 billion ringgit. Does he mean there would be a further reduction of 10 billion ringgit from the halved cost, or the original cost?”
Commenting on why Beijing might have suggested the April 2 date to finalise the project, Ngeow said “I suppose China feels confident that substantial progress has been made but perhaps there are still some small but substantive and difficult parts so a ‘deadline’ or something of the sort is needed to speed things up.”
Dr James Chin of Tasmania University’s Asia Institute also thought Daim’s announcement was unclear, and questioned whether there were “hidden” elements to the deal, such as the promise of other contracts in the future.
Mahathir’s Malaysia still ‘open for business’ with China despite stalled rail link “The date shows that China wants to settle this quickly. One must assume the Chinese are worried that if they don’t settle, it may give other countries an example of how to deal with China,” he said.
Mahathir has previously indicated negotiations on the rail link might not wind up before the Belt and Road Forum, though he has said the project could continue on “an appropriate scale” depending on China’s attitude to dropping the
The knee jerk reaction / negative perception which drove the construction sector down via the annoucements of mega project scale-downs and cancellation of ECRL is a past issue. The new government ‘had’ to make drastic announcements (a certain pannache was needed) however, if you look at it now being months later, it’s business as usual albeit on a more cautious slow plod.
The govt will continue to develop and grow the country’s primary infrastructures and it will be on a bigger scale, its a time progression thing, more population dictates the need for better market accessibility for businesses to grow, etc
MRCB is still a laggard in relative % terms to other construction stocks over recent months’ rebound from post GE14 lows (grab a few peer counters, compare n do the maths).
IMO the bulls n bears will tussle it out in April at the magical RM 1 mark. And yes i obviously have a vested interest in this counter.
Near-term opportunities for George Kent the Klang Valley double track 2 worth RM5 billion, where we understand the company is seeking a JV partner to participate in the tender.
Opinion 21:46, 26-Mar-2019 Restarting ECRL project benefits both Malaysia and China Peng Nian Share
Editor's note: Peng Nian is an assistant research fellow at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies (NISCSS), a top think tank based in Haikou, China. The article reflects the author's opinion, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.
Recently, Daim Zainuddin, who has been appointed by the Malaysian government as the special envoy of the prime minister to head the East Coast Rail Link (ECRL) negotiation with China, said that the government is expected to finalize the ECRL project in early April, and the new agreement would be executed in the same week.
It was the first time that the Malaysian government gave a precise timeframe on reviving the project that was suspended by the country's newly elected government last August.
In fact, Malaysian senior officials, mainly Finance Minister Lim Guan Eng, have released confusing messages on the controversial project since its suspension, resulting in prevailing rumors that the new Malaysian government had already decided to stop the project.
Even several days before Daim's claim, Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad said his government would not reach a deal with China before his China trip at the end of April when the International Cooperation Forum for the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is held in Beijing. In this context, Chinese investment in Malaysia and Sino-Malaysia relations, as well as the implementation of the BRI, have been adversely affected.
Skytrain, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. /VCG Photo
Nevertheless, it is not surprising that both sides would reach an agreement on restarting the ECRL since there has always been positive and continued engagement between China and Malaysia regarding the project.
Mahathir stopped the ECRL project as well as two other Chinese projects temporarily. However, in order to reduce China's suspicions about Malaysia's resistance toward the BRI, he also claimed to attend the second International Cooperation Forum for the BRI.
For Kuala Lumpur, the main obstacle to resuming the ECRL project is the debt burden rather than so-called sovereignty or security threats. Therefore, Malaysia would like to resolve this issue in a commercial way, which means that it seeks to negotiate with Chinese companies on narrowing down the project as well as mortgage financing.
The ECRL project was approved by former Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak in October 2016 at the cost of 55 billion Malaysian ringgit (13.5 billion U.S. dollars). The new ECRL deal, with cost savings of about 10 billion Malaysian ringgit (2.45 billion U.S. dollars), would have new commercial elements that would have a greater impact on Malaysian companies and people.
Kuala Lumpur railway, Malaysia. /VCG Photo
In addition, the Malaysian government would restart the project as it wants to reduce internal pressures from opposition parties and external pressures from the West. For instance, Prime Minister Mahathir threatened to import aircraft from China rather than the EU because of the recent dispute with the EU on environmental concerns of Malaysian palm oil products.
The Malaysian government, of course, would like to maintain close relations with China by removing the big barrier, the suspension of the ECRL, and thus to manipulate the balancing act between China and the West. Given this, restarting the ECRL with a declining input cost is a good choice for Malaysia to maximize economic interests and minimize diplomatic pressure.
For China, it has always stated that both sides should solve the ECRL project as early as possible so as to revive the confidence of the BRI. A new agreement on resuming the ECRL would be a big promotion for the coming International Cooperation Forum for the BRI held in Beijing.
Hence, China would like to make a compromise so that the ECRL would restart before the beginning of the BRI forum. Additionally, China had already agreed to reduce the strategically important Kyaukpyu deep-water port with Myanmar last year, so it is reasonable for China to make a similar deal with Malaysia on the ECRL.
To conclude, the coming new deal on resuming the ECRL project is beneficial to both Malaysia and China and would promote the win-win cooperation between the two countries.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
tuapuikia
2,346 posts
Posted by tuapuikia > 2019-03-13 17:31 | Report Abuse
LOL.. hope tomorrow will be up a little bit