Posted by pitbull > 2017-05-19 10:21 | Report Abuse

But the debt increase also...
Is good debt

Posted by Kadir Almushayah > 2017-05-19 10:22 | Report Abuse

tong01.....thats what is meant. correct to say that. i agree

Posted by ckyap17 > 2017-05-19 10:36 | Report Abuse

from the old news, seems like petron will issue new shares for the expansion funding in philipines?

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/petron-sell-shares-fund-expansion-20110304-072339-897.html

Posted by huisoh > 2017-05-19 10:52 | Report Abuse

Can I know, is it recommend to buy cc for investment?

Posted by suregain > 2017-05-19 14:09 | Report Abuse

going to hit rm9 soon

Posted by Jay > 2017-05-19 15:44 | Report Abuse

hi guys, just came back from holiday, good to see everyone making money

Posted by Jay > 2017-05-19 15:48 | Report Abuse

just my 2 cents on results

I'm still sceptical on a RM100m profit quarter. Refining margins were better in 1Q17, sales volume hopefully is better as well but I'm expecting some inventory losses compared to inventory gain in 4Q16. maybe they hedged it but who knows? hope they will positively surprise me

Posted by LowProfile > 2017-05-19 16:33 | Report Abuse

Hi Jay, welcome back!
As per the data, 1Q2017 average brent crude oil price is higher than 4Q2016 if i'm not wrong.

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-05-19 17:01 | Report Abuse

Mark To Market FV gain I guess

Posted by davidtslim > 2017-05-19 17:10 | Report Abuse

Jay: I think it is should be inventory gain, not loss as malaysia petrol price in Q12017 is up in Jan and Feb.

Posted by eng123 > 2017-05-19 20:11 | Report Abuse

I think inventory gain/loss from
a) realised -from buying high crude oil and selling at lower refined price

Posted by eng123 > 2017-05-19 20:12 | Report Abuse

b) unrealized - net realizable value loss (when estimated selling price less est cost to complete is lower than cost). likely happen if a huge fall

Posted by eng123 > 2017-05-19 20:12 | Report Abuse

Don't think any market fair value gain for inventory unless it uses some deritvative

Posted by davidtslim > 2017-05-19 21:24 | Report Abuse

It is also possible to buy low crude oil price and selling at higher refined price.

Posted by Jay > 2017-05-20 04:15 | Report Abuse

I'm referring to quarter end inventory valuation. petron keep 3-4 weeks inventory, so the inventories they bought at end-Feb or early Mar was at higher price, it is likely to be marked down at end-Mar. the opposite happen in 4Q16 when end-Dec inventory value was marked up after OPEC announced the cut

Posted by Jay > 2017-05-20 04:25 | Report Abuse

it's more for the refining side. retail side should benefit slightly as Jan-Mar petrol price was increasing mom, so every month end they will earn a bit from price adjustment but I am not expecting it to be big since they bought their petrol mostly from their own refining arm anyway. left pocket to right pocket doesn't count

Posted by eng123 > 2017-05-20 11:38 | Report Abuse

hi Jay, true agreed. but I think inventory value is not marked down to fair value like financial asset. they are only tested for NRV (estimated selling price less estimated cost to)

Posted by eng123 > 2017-05-20 11:38 | Report Abuse

As long as the decline in refined oil price is less than its refining margin, then there should be no write down in inventory value.

Posted by eng123 > 2017-05-20 11:41 | Report Abuse

and Q416, I think "inventory gain" is more from their purchasing crude at lower price and selling at higher refined price (when price rising)). don't think there is inventory mark up to market price on outstanding stock though

Posted by probability > 2017-05-20 12:15 | Report Abuse

interesting...never thought of this earlier.

Posted by eng123 > May 20, 2017 11:38 AM | Report Abuse

As long as the decline in refined oil price is less than its refining margin, then there should be no write down in inventory value.

Posted by probability > 2017-05-20 12:16 | Report Abuse

Made a quick calculation earlier...even with the stock gain in Dec16 becoming a stock loss on Mar17...a small improvement on the Refinery margin can easily offset this. Will share proper calculation later when i have time..

Posted by jason_sgx > 2017-05-20 12:19 | Report Abuse

Deep diving into the technical levels for PETRON MALAYSIA REFINING & MARKETING BHD (3042.KL), we note that the equity currently has a 14-day Commodity Channel Index (CCI) of 84.43. Active investors may choose to use this technical indicator as a stock evaluation tool. Used as a coincident indicator, the CCI reading above +100 would reflect strong price action which may signal an uptrend. On the flip side, a reading below -100 may signal a downtrend reflecting weak price action. Using the CCI as a leading indicator, technical analysts may use a +100 reading as an overbought signal and a -100 reading as an oversold indicator, suggesting a trend reversal. Get daily Information - http://sgx-nifty.blogspot.in/p/sgx-malaysia-uae-free-trial-form.html

Posted by eng123 > 2017-05-20 12:48 | Report Abuse

and if say suddenly oil price in last week of quarter go up from $50 to $100, I don't see there will be "inventory gain". because it is lower cost or NRV

Posted by eng123 > 2017-05-20 12:49 | Report Abuse

just my 2cent.. not sure if it's true

Posted by possible88 > 2017-05-21 12:20 | Report Abuse

So.. what will be the price for tomorrow? Up or....

Posted by skyea > 2017-05-21 15:03 | Report Abuse

no need guess already lah. petron corp already say 130m. and the calculation already range from 130-178. still want to guess inventory gains ah? which is more reliable? abit unnecessary right

Posted by Jay > 2017-05-21 17:58 | Report Abuse

I have no intention of challenging anyone's calculations here.

1. for inventory gains/losses, I'm not sure whether they do it on unsold inventories but definitely for those which are refined and sold there will be effect
2. I monitor the refining margins through indexes which doesn't give me exact amount per barrel. I already shared the data here almost 2 months ago. it was better in 1Q17 but how much is it better in RM I'm not sure
3. I invested in Petron because I like its growing biz, stabilising margins and strong free cashflow. reasonably I'm expecting around RM1-RM1.20 EPS (or RM270-RM320m) for 2017 and around RM300m free cashflow. but for those who bought it expecting at least RM100m profit a quarter, I'm afraid they will be disappointed when expectations are set too high.

I own Petron and still like it even at this price. I share the facts and my opinion (whether it's favourable or less favourable about the company) as I believe that one should be informed when they invest. that's how I learn from others as well in this forum

I'm writing these to remind myself why I bought this stock in the first place as well as to manage any speculators' unrealistic expectations.

Posted by LowProfile > 2017-05-21 20:22 | Report Abuse

Well said, Jay and as usual, thanks for sharing!

Posted by Alex > 2017-05-21 20:29 | Report Abuse

ok tmr huat

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-05-21 21:54 | Report Abuse

Fcf 300mil is good enough. But let's not discount ourselves too fast! Be ambitious with Tun! He can makes petronas, so will petronm! They are planning double capacity! That's ambitious enough!

Posted by zoizai > 2017-05-22 09:23 | Report Abuse

long term petronm price will go to RM20. hahaha

Posted by Moneyymaker > 2017-05-22 10:50 | Report Abuse

hold tight tight, flying soon

Posted by lordng94 > 2017-05-22 20:11 | Report Abuse

average 4.28 usd Dubai Singapore Dec2016

Posted by Kadir Almushayah > 2017-05-22 21:08 | Report Abuse

What ever will be, will be

Posted by shidayea > 2017-05-23 09:43 | Report Abuse

He3...

Posted by Kadir Almushayah > 2017-05-23 09:52 | Report Abuse

@shidayea ....someone happyea

Posted by aseng > 2017-05-23 11:27 | Report Abuse

after reading all the comments regarding the inventories gain or loss by all the sifu here
I come to the conclusion that none of the sifu dare to say their calculation is true or near to true
put it plainly, all the sifu are just guessing and wish to know more and no one has come out with a clear picture .
so the best picture is still the one provided by sumato88

conclusion :

expected EPS for this quarter is ~40 sen , price will break 9.00 one day before the result is announced

Posted by Kadir Almushayah > 2017-05-23 12:01 | Report Abuse

euro markets may fall.. asian markets nervy

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-05-23 12:11 | Report Abuse

many places got terror attack, mkt a bit panic.,

Posted by suregain > 2017-05-23 12:30 | Report Abuse

merah merah

Posted by Kadir Almushayah > 2017-05-23 13:31 | Report Abuse

Steady ship

Posted by suregain > 2017-05-24 10:01 | Report Abuse

y not moving compare to hengyuan..?? never uderestimate hengyuan

Posted by shidayea > 2017-05-24 15:34 | Report Abuse

Dh start engine...

Posted by Kadir Almushayah > 2017-05-24 18:23 | Report Abuse

Engine ok ?minyak cukup?

Posted by Jay > 2017-05-24 18:44 | Report Abuse

wow hengyuan numbers really strong, can petron get better numbers as well

Posted by Alex Lim Jun Xiong > 2017-05-24 18:49 | Report Abuse

Dam, I cut loss 20% of my holding here today.
Hope can buy back at same price tomorrow before result out.

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2017-05-24 18:50 | Report Abuse

In HengYuan report stated refinery margin is better than last Qtr, and the average refine product price is higher.

Good news for Petronm

Posted by Equityengineer > 2017-05-24 18:52 | Report Abuse

Wcrage selling price at usd 60+*+ for Hengyuan

Posted by skyea > 2017-05-24 18:58 | Report Abuse

oy buggers u all saw hengyuan results? :)

Posted by Alex Lim Jun Xiong > 2017-05-24 19:22 | Report Abuse

逍遥子, why Hengyuan quote crude selling price at $65?
I though brent crude highest selling price is RM56 only, kindly enlighten me.