Yes Petronm is better than Hengyuan as Petronm is running a business whereas Hengyuan is running a Casino betting/hedging heavily on: Forward foreign currency contracts Forward priced commodity contracts Commodity swap contracts Refining margin swap contracts Commodity options Interest rate swap contracts
Hengyuan latest quarter end 30.06.2021 page:14 (b) Financial instruments carried at fair value (continued): Fair value of financial instruments that were outstanding as at the reporting date are detailed below: Level 2 30.06.2021 Contract/Notional amount USD'000 Forward priced commodity contracts 14,778 Commodity swap contracts 140,295 Refining margin swap contracts 250,714 Interest rate swap contracts 77,500
I only dare to put little portion in these type of counters. Long time ago, I already found that their earnings are highly unpredictable. Basically the raw material itself is already a subject of wildly fluctuation, moreover, they themselves buy all these derivatives, these make the earnings more unpredictable.
For example, if crude oil price grows higher, by straight forward, their inventory (which bought earlier at lower price) would be a gain, but they can report inverse result because they hedge the price in wrong direction :D. This happen to other counters like Airasia etc .......
Take a glance at Heng Yuan, this is a good demonstration on how the derivatives affected the final result. The pretax loss of 80,463 was caused by the the fair value loss on derivative instruments of 209,219.
But in same period last year, the derivatives reported a gain of 286,017, so ...... :D :D
Their result is actually their derivatives trading result? :D :D
If you look into the amount of hedge Hengyuan done in USD, its amount to billion in MYR. That is why I say Hengyuan is running a casino and not running a business.
Which Brent $83, refinery crack spread at $9, no reason for Petronm to trade at RM4.60. Worst case fall back to RM4.10 low, prepared to loss 10% if thing goes wrong.
With Iran's uranium purification drama with the world, brent crude oil is heading towards $100. Crack spread stood high at $10. Cars on the road and airasia is flying in the sky. No reason Petronm to stay at this low.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
aleroe
140 posts
Posted by aleroe > 2021-08-26 17:07 | Report Abuse
Earnings out — good profit despite the lock-downs
Revenue actually up on Q-on-Q basis