Posted by Jay > 2017-02-27 16:18 | Report Abuse

at the very least cashflow is still great despite the earnings volatility

Posted by bluelight > 2017-02-27 18:28 | Report Abuse

Great more people knowing petron is good company

Posted by Berkat > 2017-02-27 19:06 | Report Abuse

great

Posted by Equityengineer > 2017-02-27 22:36 | Report Abuse

The main main important thing is stability of cruft oil. Up is good but as long as stay at the same level not volatile, should be fine... Then the recurring revenue easily predictable

Posted by tkp2 > 2017-02-28 08:49 | Report Abuse

March petrol price predict to increase to 2.4, lets see tonight announcement.

https://www.lookp.com/blog/malaysia-next-month-ron95-fuel-price

Posted by tkp2 > 2017-02-28 08:52 | Report Abuse

with petrol price for Oct: 1.8, Nov: 1.95, Dec: 1.9, Petron already delivered such a fantastic results, what do you think Petron will be able to achieve with Jan: 2.1, Feb 2.3, Mar: ??

Posted by Equityengineer > 2017-02-28 09:17 | Report Abuse

can hold Thai stock but just watch the oil
Price movement ... next Q would be excellent ...

Posted by LowProfile > 2017-02-28 09:22 | Report Abuse

if lets say bet on coming q also good result like previous q or better, so current share price will consider cheap or expensive still? think about it, your call. It seems like some "ppl" are accumulating the share between the price range of 6-6.3, they will "make sure" that the share price will maintain within this range until they accumulated enough to push the price further again... just speculate only...

Posted by Equityengineer > 2017-02-28 09:43 | Report Abuse

For the current price and outlook at least till next q the price is undervalued...

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2017-02-28 10:14 | Report Abuse

tonight even if the government announce to maintain the Feb Petrol retail price for March, it will be good for Petronm.

Posted by pitbull > 2017-02-28 12:34 | Report Abuse

Gov increase oil prices will impact petronm profit....?

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2017-02-28 12:38 | Report Abuse

If government increase the the petrol retail price, Indirectly it will help the refinery margin.

Posted by Equityengineer > 2017-02-28 12:39 | Report Abuse

Will be profitable ..

Posted by bluelight > 2017-02-28 13:37 | Report Abuse

Will petron joint shell continue fly?

Posted by Equityengineer > 2017-02-28 14:08 | Report Abuse

Yes ... it would ...

Posted by zhangliang > 2017-02-28 14:27 | Report Abuse

agree go go

Posted by Equityengineer > 2017-02-28 15:02 | Report Abuse

Maybe next week rm 7, bad market sentiment preventing investor to enter yet ..

Posted by pitbull > 2017-02-28 15:23 | Report Abuse

Shell
Results out...
69 EPS..
Wah..
.

Posted by pitbull > 2017-02-28 15:26 | Report Abuse

逍遥子。。
Shell eps 69
Not bad

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2017-02-28 15:29 | Report Abuse

Ya ! But shell is a different kind of business operation in a way, debts level is a bit high.

Personally I still prefer Petronm cause better fundamental as well as business model.

Posted by Jay > 2017-02-28 15:40 | Report Abuse

looking from the surface it seems the more exposed to refining, the more volatile your margin is. so stability wise, it will be petdag>petron>shell

Posted by probability > 2017-02-28 15:45 | Report Abuse

agree on this. I have noticed from previous qtrly reports (for the last 1.5 years) that Petron's refinery almost does not get affected by stock loss/(gain)....due to either pricing mechanism or relatively low retention volume of crude oil in the plant system - unlike Shell.

Posted by Jay > Feb 28, 2017 03:40 PM | Report Abuse

looking from the surface it seems the more exposed to refining, the more volatile your margin is. so stability wise, it will be petdag>petron>shell

Posted by bluelight > 2017-02-28 15:52 | Report Abuse

Petron dividend still better FD

Posted by Joehary Ahmad > 2017-02-28 16:07 | Report Abuse

yep im buying petron! go3x

Posted by Equityengineer > 2017-02-28 16:17 | Report Abuse

Petdag net cash company , but Petron still low PE.. with great reduction in debt ...

Posted by zhangliang > 2017-02-28 16:42 | Report Abuse

come on move move!

Posted by Berkat > 2017-02-28 17:23 | Report Abuse

Shell UP a lot today

Posted by pitbull > 2017-02-28 18:02 | Report Abuse

Thanks 逍遥子

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2017-02-28 18:04 | Report Abuse

Pitbull, u are welcome

Posted by probability > 2017-02-28 20:26 | Report Abuse

If we study Shell (pure refinery), Petron (refinery + retail) and Petdag (pure retail) in terms of Revenue and Core Operating profit Margin on their latest financial results, with the basic assumption that the majority of refined products of Petron is sold through their own Petron Retail sections (Gas stations), one can deduce the following conclusions:

i) The Core operating profit margin of PetronM of 7.8% is almost similar to Petdag by working back from Petdag PBT and adding a reasonable S&A costs. Since Petdag’s margin has no value addition (margin contribution) by refining process, Petron’s recent EPS was achieved with almost negligible (0%) value addition by its refinery business. In worst scenario, taking PBT margin of Petdag (at 5.6%) as its Core operating Margin itself without any S&A provisions, the maximum possible Margin contribution of Petron’s refinery is (7.8% - 5.6% = 2.2%).

ii) If we see the Core operating profit margin of Shell reported was 8.8%....this is way way higher than the maximum theoretical margin of Petron’s refinery of 2.2%. This led me to believe that the significant Margin improvement of Shell is due to one-off Stock gains due Crude price appreciation during the reporting period.

Note: The Margins (value additions on the streams of products) has to at least approximately match for retail sections of PetronM & Petdag and the same also applies for refinery section of PetronM and Shell.

Posted by VenFx > 2017-02-28 20:30 | Report Abuse

wow, trust pprobability sifu detail analysis fir ptronm.

Posted by probability > 2017-02-28 21:23 | Report Abuse

http://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2017/02/28/march-fuel-prices-petrol-unchanged-diesel-up-five-sen/

Posted by zoizai > 2017-02-28 22:46 | Report Abuse

Oct16 crude oil- 49usd : ron95-Rm1.80 diesel-rm1.75
Nov16 crude oil-45usd : ron95-Rm1.95 diesel-rm1.90
Dec16 crude oil- 52usd : ron95-Rm1.90 diesel-rm1.85

Q4 reported EPS 41 sen

Jan17 crude oil- 53usd : ron95-Rm2.10 diesel-rm2.05
Feb17 crude oil- 54usd : ron95-Rm2.30 diesel-rm2.15
Mar17 crude oil- ? Usd : ron95-Rm2.30 diesel-rm2.20

If crude oil stable at 55USD, Petronm can perform as good as last quater.

Posted by Equityengineer > 2017-02-28 22:53 | Report Abuse

Well your calculation already show at least the good result will be posted in next q.. what to worry after that is crude oil price sustainability after OPEC deal ends.

Posted by Alex Lim Jun Xiong > 2017-03-01 09:55 | Report Abuse

Goodstock, contra players in warrant cb.
Who want to contra mother at RM6+?

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2017-03-01 10:11 | Report Abuse

Petronm is a counter that u going to need a lot of patience, where most of the time thin volume & lack of retailers' interest. So sometimes the price might fluactate in quite a bit of range due to genuine seller/buyer or price manipulation. So only suitable for long term investors

Posted by Alex Lim Jun Xiong > 2017-03-01 10:23 | Report Abuse

逍遥子, I'm using cash to invest in Petron but not warrant, so I can hold without any problem.
What is ur tp for this Petron?

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2017-03-01 10:32 | Report Abuse

At the moment I m not setting any TP for it, however if using fundamental valuation personally I think it would worth more than $6.5, let say they can sustain the yearly EPS of $1-$1.1 and turn to net cash company by end of the year, I think re-rating to PE around 10 is possible. Of course if the dividend can increase to $0.25/$0.30 then it would be even better

Posted by Joehary Ahmad > 2017-03-01 10:43 | Report Abuse

yep time to buy more petron!

Posted by Alex Lim Jun Xiong > 2017-03-01 10:47 | Report Abuse

Ok, thank you 逍遥子.
I better hold mother share, previously loss a lot of money on Airasia warrant in November 2016.

Posted by Equityengineer > 2017-03-01 10:52 | Report Abuse

Now can only buy at 6.22.. support at 6.20

Posted by probability > 2017-03-01 10:56 | Report Abuse

i even checked with the company secretary already....he does not want to reveal too much...but mentioned as per below:

Dear Mr. Manoj,

I am small shareholder of PetronM and I was glad to see the recent quarter Financial report of Petron published in Bursa last week.

I could see the Earnings had significantly improved compared to preceding quarter resulting with Operating Profit 179M and PBT of 152M.
This is double the amount of profit reported on the previous quarter.

I am curious to know why the sudden change in revenue and profit. Is this purely due to retail section (petrol station) growth contribution or due to the improvement in the refinery margin.
Would this current earning be the norm going forward?

I would be extremely privileged if you could kindly enlighten the changes happening in PetronM which had resulted with such favorable performance.
Perhaps I can give you a call? (please do provide your direct number to call)

PETRON RESPOND:

Dear Sir,

Thank you for your email and query.

The Company’s 4th Quarter 2016 Financial Results is something that we are proud of to have achieved despite many challenges in the oil & gas industry and global economic challenges. The results are testimony to our resolute focus on the long term business growth plans and commitments that Petron has in place for the Company. However in answer to your question on the future earnings and prospects, this is something that we do not embark on in a discussion with anyone as the matter is too speculative given the volatility of the oil & gas industry and continued foreseeable pressures on the global economy. Further, it would be unfair to make such predictions and in doing so provide more information to one specific party, than that declared by the Company to the investing public at large, via the stock exchange announcement on February 22, 2017. However we wish to refer you to the notes in the Financial Statement, with specific reference to Note 12, that we believe addresses some of the questions that you have.

We again thank you for your email and we truly appreciate your invaluable and continued support for the Company in your capacity as a shareholder.

Posted by zoizai > 2017-03-01 11:03 | Report Abuse

@probability welldone. Petronm major shareholder has near 75% of the shares. Be confident them.

Posted by cheoky > 2017-03-01 11:03 | Report Abuse

thx for great sharings

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2017-03-01 11:06 | Report Abuse

This should be the way, very professional. I m sure that this company is in good hand & give them some time they will deliver.

Happy Investing

Posted by probability > 2017-03-01 11:42 | Report Abuse

A quick calculation on 5 Sen rise on Diesel announced with my estimation that 35% of the revenue generated is via Diesel consumption reveals the following on the impact to bottom line:

Diesel price rise % = 0.05/2.15 = 2.3%
Revenue fraction of Diesel = 35%
Current revenue per qtr:2,289M
Thus PBT impact (extra):
= 2.3% x 35% x 2,289 = 18.6 M (PBT)

That is assuming raw material crude price in USD and exchange rate remains unchanged compared to previous qtr.

Posted by wltan22 > 2017-03-01 11:59 | Report Abuse

@probability or call u Mr Manoj, 2 thumbs up for your great effort...appreciate

Posted by probability > 2017-03-01 12:01 | Report Abuse

wltan22..Mr. Manoj Devadasan is the company secretary...see their website..i am nobody...

Posted by wltan22 > 2017-03-01 12:06 | Report Abuse

Opps I c...my mistake didn't read properly...haha...anyway like what you have done to this forum

Posted by wltan22 > 2017-03-01 12:13 | Report Abuse

as my own rough calculation, for this qtr 8.3mil barrel almost reach their full refinery capacity, in future the Dated Brent price is crucial to company earning power, IMO as long as the price can sustained, on up trend, not big drop then company profitability as this qtr should able to maintain