Posted by suregain > 2017-04-01 07:23 | Report Abuse

Oil price up further.. Next mon petron good show

Posted by 明天会更好 > 2017-04-01 09:19 | Report Abuse

7, 8 或 9？

Posted by suregain > 2017-04-01 09:20 | Report Abuse

9 la

Posted by zhangliang > 2017-04-01 13:09 | Report Abuse

paperplane, i still like it cause i think got huge potential to go up. Since not yet Dividend ex date too!!

Posted by skyea > 2017-04-01 18:51 | Report Abuse

u all got go pump petron anot ystd?

Posted by probability > 2017-04-01 19:02 | Report Abuse

u have time till coming wednesday to pump.....ensure its 100% full tank by wednesday evening. Better do it in the morning itself...

Coz you dont want to see the price on Thursday.

Posted by suregain > 2017-04-01 20:03 | Report Abuse

Expected next wed petrol px wil up cos oil px rebound oredi

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-04-01 20:05 | Report Abuse

I drive Ferrari. So pump euro standard oil?

Posted by Million78 > 2017-04-03 10:47 | Report Abuse

agree wit sifu probability, price will up let's see haha...

Posted by Million78 > 2017-04-04 09:54 | Report Abuse

today a good day^^

Posted by thenewbee > 2017-04-04 10:03 | Report Abuse

go ah petron ! vroom vroom,

Posted by Million78 > 2017-04-04 10:17 | Report Abuse

add some seen will fly soon, goodluck my fren^^

Posted by thenewbee > 2017-04-04 10:22 | Report Abuse

good luck huat ah

Posted by suregain > 2017-04-04 13:48 | Report Abuse

ohhh nooo, wt crude fal below usd50

Posted by Million78 > 2017-04-04 15:17 | Report Abuse

no worry my price up petronm up

Posted by suregain > 2017-04-04 15:45 | Report Abuse

move pls

Posted by Million78 > 2017-04-04 16:06 | Report Abuse

price 52++^^

Posted by Equityengineer > 2017-04-04 19:21 | Report Abuse

Good enough ...

Posted by probability > 2017-04-04 19:51 | Report Abuse

gentle reminder: dont forget to fill up your cars 100% full tomorrow morning itself..

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-04-04 20:04 | Report Abuse

Aiyo

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2017-04-04 20:49 | Report Abuse

I personally think that the petrol price will revise up to $2.20 +\- !

1) refinery margin has been steady and stay around in healthy region since beginning of 2017

2) Estimate Average oil price for 1st Qtr is around US$52 +\-, which is higher compare to 4th Qtr 2016 of US$50

3) RM against USD has been been climbing gradually

So far so good, looking forward for the 1st Qtr results and the dividend.

Posted by probability > 2017-04-04 20:55 | Report Abuse

逍遥子...i was just about to post the exact same figure (2.20) on my prediction just now...but you were seconds earlier than me!!! he he..

salute to you!

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2017-04-04 21:09 | Report Abuse

@ probability, cheers !

Posted by suregain > 2017-04-04 21:37 | Report Abuse

Wow, crude oil heading up.. Hopefuly wti can reach usd52

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-04-04 21:43 | Report Abuse

no use,
You could be barking up wrong tree.
accounting profits probably got to do with hedging policies, accounting policies with stocks, formula for fixing prices, marketing and maintenance...and stability of crude prices.


suregain > Apr 4, 2017 09:37 PM | Report Abuse

Wow, crude oil heading up.. Hopefuly wti can reach usd52

Posted by suregain > 2017-04-04 23:48 | Report Abuse

Crude oil continues rose sharply.. Tomorow petronm 7

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-04-05 01:15 | Report Abuse

Bullz, aeoncr how. Die die accumulated hehe

Posted by Jay > 2017-04-05 08:45 | Report Abuse

last monday I already predicted weekly api and eia inventory report will start to surprise on the upside, but the strong oil price is still a positive surprise

Posted by Jay > 2017-04-05 08:50 | Report Abuse

as I also said before, crude oil price will mainly affect inventory gain/loss. more important is to look at the margin which is the difference between crude oil price (input) and refined product price (output)

estimated inventory gain/loss or refining margins are all just rough indicators for the upcoming results. but at least we know the sales price to end user (retail price) and raw material input cost (crude oil price) which is quite standard, unlike some funny steel companies whose cost was higher than expected as they couldn't get the supply and sales price got pressed down by customers due to lack of pricing power

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-04-05 08:53 | Report Abuse

Jay, your view is continue hold till May17 result? As seems like every single info now is positive for PETRONM!
CB will blow up like mad soon

Posted by Jay > 2017-04-05 09:54 | Report Abuse

update for indicators 3Q16 vs 4Q16 vs 1Q17

Ron95 (RM): 1.75/1.75/1.70 vs 1.80/1.95/1.90 vs 2.10/2.30/2.30
Asia Tapis spread: 4.90 vs 6.78 vs 8.47
Asia Minas spread: 9.36 vs 11.03 vs 11.95
Crude oil closing price: 49 vs 56.8 vs 52.8
Gasoline (petrol) closing price: 148 vs 166 vs 170

Posted by Jay > 2017-04-05 09:57 | Report Abuse

update for indicators 3Q16 vs 4Q16 vs 1Q17

Ron95 (RM): 1.75/1.75/1.70 vs 1.80/1.95/1.90 vs 2.10/2.30/2.30
Asia Tapis spread: 4.90 vs 6.78 vs 8.47
Asia Minas spread: 9.36 vs 11.03 vs 11.95
Crude oil closing price: 49 vs 56.8 vs 52.8
Gasoline (petrol) closing price: 148 vs 166 vs 170

Posted by thenewbee > 2017-04-05 10:12 | Report Abuse

boom!!!

Posted by Million78 > 2017-04-05 10:16 | Report Abuse

good , coming soon .........breakout

Posted by 7skies > 2017-04-05 10:16 | Report Abuse

BUY!

Posted by tkp2 > 2017-04-05 10:17 | Report Abuse

paperplane's CB very hot liao

Posted by Million78 > 2017-04-05 10:17 | Report Abuse

will fly high still next week^^ good

Posted by tkp2 > 2017-04-05 10:18 | Report Abuse

paperplane's CB lai liao, wakakaka

Posted by tkp2 > 2017-04-05 10:19 | Report Abuse

today another big green day, foresee a big green candle is forming, CB will be very hot today

Posted by suregain > 2017-04-05 10:20 | Report Abuse

today 7

Posted by LowProfile > 2017-04-05 10:21 | Report Abuse

@Jay, could you comment on inventory turnover part for petron? usually is how long? 1 month? weeks? if compared to petdag

Posted by Million78 > 2017-04-05 10:29 | Report Abuse

CB will soar up new-
high soon...

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-04-05 10:31 | Report Abuse

Posted by tkp2 > Apr 5, 2017 10:17 AM | Report Abuse

paperplane's CB very hot liao


I like CB. drill the CB

Posted by tkp2 > 2017-04-05 10:33 | Report Abuse

ppl like paperplane like CB very much, thats why they prefer to play CB, not CC

Posted by Million78 > 2017-04-05 10:35 | Report Abuse

good i like cb ^^

Posted by thenewbee > 2017-04-05 10:35 | Report Abuse

very good notice by rchi petron ..when mum is 6.46 cb is 44...y now mum 6.6 son only 39

Posted by Million78 > 2017-04-05 10:35 | Report Abuse

cc some boy boy like also don play play

Posted by tkp2 > 2017-04-05 10:36 | Report Abuse

paperplane you like to play with your own CB or other's CB?

Posted by Million78 > 2017-04-05 10:36 | Report Abuse

thenewbee that time you all goreng like play play so shoot up overhigh le

Posted by Jay > 2017-04-05 10:38 | Report Abuse

overall I'm still positive about May results.

the way I interpret it, there are a few factors supporting it

1. higher retail price is better for topline revenue
2. higher margin spread is good for margins
3. for potential inventory losses, Petron seems to only hold around 1 month inventory and I'm not sure how much is split between crude and processed products. if you notice, gasoline price still increase qoq so any inventory losses shouldn't be significant
4. last quarter margin surge is not exactly due to inventory gains because inventory cannot be stated higher than cost, it's more of a timing benefit

e.g. they bought crude oil back in Sept for Oct sales, crude price is cheaper 1-2 months ago but in Oct, government fixed retail price at 1.80 because of increasing oil price trend in Sept, so technically Petron benefit by buying cheaper and selling higher

so similarly when crude price started to drop in early Mar, but Mar retail price is already fixed (Ron 95 at 2.30) so timing wise Petron didn't lose out as whatever stock they bought back in Jan/Feb for processing, they still get to sell it at 2.30 (which was determined when average price is around 56)

the only time when they lose out is like past week when retail price is revised down as oil price retraced but raw materials were bought before Mar when oil price was higher. so my theory is only a sustained downtrend would result in significant inventory losses qoq but looking at oil price now, it seems to be back up so that may not hit them much

overall I'm not greedy, an EPS of 25-30c is good enough. I think what scares away investor is the quarterly volatility. annual results are quite stable at around 80c EPS. if looking to invest longer term, any swing in quarterly results wouldn't matter plus annual free cashflow over market cap is almost 20%