With rising USD versus MYR lately, plus management comment on of better EAF in the Jan/Feb period YOY, we can expect better quarterly profit from Dong Sahong hydro plant. Current price is attractive with potential EPS in FY 21 more than 65 cents, I would add more if it drop further. Be patient, the letter from management posted by linjie on 03/03/2021 4:38 PM is quite informative on MFCB financial/ cash flow management. Thanks
Assume revenue 510m and profit 372m from Don sahong every year. First 5 year free tax, after 5 years assume tax rate same as Malaysia 24% 2021 to 2025 profit 372m x 5 =1.86b 2026 to 2046 profit 282m x 20 = 5.64b Total profit = around 7.5b in 25 years.
Total liability only 962m right now. So what do u expect they do with those fund? Payout 100% like malakaoff? Then the share price drop to bottom fixed at 6 to 8% dividend yield price? Lol no way.
Management wisely use those fund to expand the packaging sector, how we know will become second scientex or tguan those huge plastic company?
Never blame the dividend yield too low or what for the growth company. If u don't believe management can wisely spend the profit to expand other business then just let go the share la.
Goh family also own e&o mah, u can see those qr, a year better than a year. So when u wan select growth company, just ask urself believe the management or not lo.
Haha, u thought project same as Don sahong so easy find? Need how many resources and relationships to found the project from oversea government. If its easy, everyone go enter this venture already.
This stock for long term de la, if u search good return capital may look into new ipo stock, those just get money to expand business. Such as flexidynamic that kind. Since es cremaic growth so much this year, then flexi same as supplier of glove maker should earn huge profit coming too
I think the Chairman does has good relationship with Cambodian PM . 85 % of Don.Sahong power is being sold to Cambodia . MFCB also had a land concessions of 9500 hectars planting coconuts. He also has a beer.business in.Cambodia. With proven record , We hope mfcb will.get another similar hydro power project in.Laos.
Uplanet, Oh, I m not aware . The last time I talked to him was 20 years ago on D & O business when he told me.he had a beer business in Cambodia. I m not aware he had sold his business to Carlsberg. You are more updated .
MFCB has a positive cash flow of about 450 m illions annually from Don Sahong power plant from the sale of electricity. This is contractual business for 25 years. Average profit is 330 millions per year . MFCB has never lost money in the last 20 years even without the Don Sahong project . Earning.per share is projected to be 73 s based on public invest projection. How can it go bankrup ?
MD bought 200,000 at 7.60 and 305,000 at 7.20. Why do people fear and sell at below 7.00. after split in june,share price is easier to reach 4.00 which will be equivalent to 8.00
MFCB balance sheet is not complicated and easy to decipher.Last year its operation generated 290+m of which it had used 88m to reduce debt and 190m to settle power plant construction costs.This year it will have this 190m to reduce a greater amount of debt or use part to pay more dividend.Just 50m will pay another 10cents of dividend which will increase dividend rate to 26 cents.A combination of higher dividend and lower outstanding debt is bullish for its share price
Net profit likely to range between 450-500m in the next 2 years and eps increase to 45-50 cents which should sustain a share price of 4.50-5.00 on a split basis
if market is efficient, there will be no Warren Buffet or Michael Burry. Simple supply and demand, when market think it's good, demand is greater then supply. Price goes up irrationally. Michael Burry short sell to market that say "resistance broke going new high". When the price collapse, market lost a big chunk. Burry made a big chunk from market.
When market think it's bad, price drop irrationally. Market says "support broken" sell. Warren Buffet says, "buy when everyone if fearful". When QR out sui sui, Warren Buffet made a chunk buying low when market is fearful and selling back to market when QR out is good.
So, u tell me. What market knows? Market are filled with d*ck, tom and harry that's like capitalist.
---------------------------------------------------------------- capitalist keep going if you think it will be worth....market will show you...I hope you will not cry one day 18/05/2021 12:14 PM
To be fair, even though MFCB has decent leverage ratio, EPS, cash flow, usually the company will release a less impressive QR in the first quarter of each year. Since the Don Sahong hydropower plant (main business of MFCB) draws power from the Mekong River in Siphandone area of Champasak Province, the annually drought season and low water levels might directly affect the power generation apart from competition (such as the Thako project). ESG concerns with the Don Sahong Project which blocks the river channel and inadvertently affects the ecosystem for aquatic life and the local economy will deter some investors from buying. Outflow restriction from China will also be detrimental to the operation of the dam. However, I believe these external factors are merely noise as renewable energy via hydropower remains one of the viable sources for power generation. Here's why
Hydropower is hard to generate and the tradeoffs are much better than the popular solar panels. Solar panels deteriorate over time and massive accumulation will ALSO result in the same environmental concerns. Apart from that, high solar adoption also leads to the issue known as Duck Curve. I just copy and paste here for the definition: "High solar adoption creates a challenge for utilities to balance supply and demand on the grid. This is due to the increased need for electricity generators to quickly ramp up energy production when the sun sets and the contribution from PV falls. Another challenge with high solar adoption is the potential for PV to produce more energy than can be used at one time, called over-generation. This leads system operators to curtail PV generation, reducing its economic and environmental benefits. While curtailment does not have a major impact on the benefits of PV when it occurs occasionally throughout the year, it could have a potentially significant impact at greater PV penetration levels."
Sometimes when you invest in a company, you have to look past the balance sheet. The above is exactly the reason why MFCB lost some of its market value over the past few weeks. However, despite all the potential negative catalysts, I believe in the long-term sustainability of hydropower generation compared to solar adoption. Every renewable energy has its downsides but the tradeoffs from using hydropower justifies the various ESG concerns raised. Bullish in the long term, neutral in the medium term.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
cygoh1
12 posts
Posted by cygoh1 > 2021-03-20 16:22 | Report Abuse
only 1 word for this stock..patient