Posted by RainT > 2019-11-14 16:55 | Report Abuse

both Hong Leong related companies on down trend

HLIND

MPI

Posted by RainT > 2019-11-14 16:59 | Report Abuse

Has been holding HLIND for the past 1 year

since from exclusion frm the Shariah list and average up all the way

now turn out to be break even only due to this few days down trend

dividend yield for my investment around 3%

now i know what i cannot make money in share market

Posted by x3mg33 > 2019-11-14 17:04 | Report Abuse

@remus... it’s hard to understand this counter as it’s full of pleasant surprises, albeit textbook theories shed little light to it. I have been an active investor in this counter since 2015 and still hold until this very day.
At the beginning we thought the price suppression was because of privatisation until this was ruled out by management in the current AGM that has just passed. Personally I think privatisation is still on the cards as the the counter has traded wat below its industry PE. I will not go into details of it’s PE as this has been discussed at length by other contributors.
This counter is mainly held privately by the HL group of companies under the shrewdest and sharp investment wisdom of QLC. Now most of QLC lists of companies are very well managed, take the likes of HLB. It is difficult to gauge what QLC thinks or his next move will be but it will be to his steward advantage. This counter has grown by heaps and bound and there are not many companies in bursa that stands out as much as this counter in terms of its fundamentals. It still bags the question why it is traded so low. I can only think of privatisation in the future and preservation of wealth within the HL group of companies.
In other words, management has very little emphasis on shareholders wealth enhancement. This counter has been trading under the radar for as Long as I can remember and perhaps it is management decision to do so. There’s absolutely no coverage by funds and average volume is illiquid. Every counter on bursa trades on strong growth but not this. It seems to be happy at where it is, status quo.
I just can’t get my head around it.

Posted by x3mg33 > 2019-11-14 17:11 | Report Abuse

@remus... price suppression because management does not want price to fluctuate on reported results and interim dividend. Think about it, if you are an owner of a listed company would you not want your counter to thrive on good set of numbers and dividends? Unless you want to control the price within an expected level for whatever reason, best to suppress it before reporting results so that it will be within a level that is expected. This is my theory and observation.

Posted by shpg22 > 2019-11-15 14:12 | Report Abuse

If you have bought HLIND since early 2015, the average adjusted price is around 3.50. Now is 10.20, a return of 190% in 5 years or CAGR of 23.7% per annum. Much better than even S&P500. I don't know why shareholders keep complaining about the price movement, this stock is for long term investor, not punter. Punter can go buy ARMADA, WIDAD etc. But for those opt for punter stock, the chances of you making 190% in 5 years is really dim.

Posted by remus > 2019-11-18 09:19 | Report Abuse

@x3mg33, thanks reply. agreed with your views. HLI is largely hold by QLC & institution investors ( >80%). don't think got people want, or capable of manipulate this stock except QLC himself.

Posted by 3A0012 > 2019-11-19 14:17 | Report Abuse

Hello, would you mind to tell me what is QLC?

Posted by Junichiro > 2019-11-19 14:59 | Report Abuse

QLC = Quek Leng Chan - Hong Leong boss

Posted by kywoo > 2019-11-19 18:10 | Report Abuse

Hong Leong Ind has been delisted from the MSCI small Cap component index effective end of November 2019. There is nothing wrong with company performance or financials. It is considered illiquid by MSCI as the daily volume is too thin. Nestle Malaysia was never included in the MSCI index until 2 years ago for the same reason. Nestled fundamentals have not changed despite the inclusion.

I believe that there are 2 to 3 millions shares held by funds linked to the MSCI and hence these funds must sell their holdings irrespective whether the company is doing well or not. Hence there will be some selling pressure for the rest of the year. However it involves only 1% of company shares and impact on share price not significant

On the other hand if the share price do fall below 10.00 it is a very good buy as the PE will be around 9 or possibly 8 if profit for 2020 continues to improve. This share is not for speculators but true investors. One can have huge gains if held for long term

Posted by yklip > 2019-11-19 20:39 | Report Abuse

kywoo agree with you i guess the price drop is mainly because of MSCI delisted since the selling pressure was escalated after the news. I'm waiting for it to drop futher.

Posted by Rwkl > 2019-11-19 23:44 | Report Abuse

2mil seems like some way to go if volume in the past few days are anything to go by.

Posted by kywoo > 2019-11-20 09:43 | Report Abuse

It's all a matter of price. If they want to dump the shares for a song it will be taken up.

Posted by RainT > 2019-11-21 11:17 | Report Abuse

Sudden mega sales of HLIND

Posted by RainT > 2019-11-21 11:21 | Report Abuse

Wah

Thanks all for good sharing information

Posted by TabulaRasa > 2019-11-21 15:24 | Report Abuse

Thank you, Mr Woo for the good sharing. There are lots of noises and nonsense in this forum, but occasionally one hears from seasoned and sincere investors such as yourself!

Posted by Fabien "The Efficient Capital Allocater" > 2019-11-21 16:55 | Report Abuse

good opportunity to collect at lower price. i remember similar situation last year when HLIND removed from Syariah compliant list.

Posted by RainT > 2019-11-21 17:25 | Report Abuse

come on come on

tomorrow lower please

Posted by shpg22 > 2019-11-21 20:52 | Report Abuse

One more round of mega sale before rocket. Take this opportunity to accumulate

Posted by RainT > 2019-11-22 09:17 | Report Abuse

so for now where is the bottom?

Posted by RainT > 2019-11-22 09:17 | Report Abuse

after exclude frm MSCI

when the fund will finish selling

Posted by Manfromuncle > 2019-11-22 12:10 | Report Abuse

aiyoh, you all never read what kywoo write ar

Posted by SilverHawk > 2019-11-22 13:04 | Report Abuse

New MSCI index will take into effect on 27th. The dumping should be coming to the end.

Posted by remus > 2019-11-23 11:41 | Report Abuse

@kywoo TQ for sharing. thumbs up.

Posted by sosfinance > 2019-11-25 11:08 | Report Abuse

Once the MSCI funds sold down, the share price will recover, especially when the results improve over time. Same thing happen to Shariah funds disposal.

Posted by Fabien "The Efficient Capital Allocater" > 2019-11-25 14:28 | Report Abuse

focus on the business fundamentals and not be guided by movement in share prices

unless the market is telling you something you didn't know. most of the times it's just noise.

Posted by RainT > 2019-11-25 15:13 | Report Abuse

not yet have chance to buy below RM10

now already above RM10

Posted by shpg22 > 2019-11-25 16:59 | Report Abuse

Aya...sale over so fast. Thot got more discount

Posted by RainT > 2019-11-25 23:43 | Report Abuse

So fast , the MSCI effect cheap sales being absorb away

Posted by Guilefighter > 2019-11-26 10:32 | Report Abuse

even though rm10. 20 now, also considered super cheap

Posted by SilverHawk > 2019-11-26 11:14 | Report Abuse

Dumping is over 。。。
When DEMAND is greater than supply 。。。

Posted by kywoo > 2019-11-26 11:59 | Report Abuse

Common sense and a simple calculation will tell us that Hong Leong Ind is attractive for a privatization exercise. Almost all new IPO coming to market will ask for a PE of at least 15.. Average PE of listed companies in Bursa is 15.8. Some are even over 50.
The question is simple. Why should the controlling shareholder do nothing when the company is so much undervalued. There are actually only about 60 million shares in hands of minority shareholders.. Assuming the controlling shareholder is offering to buy over the 60 million shares st PE of 15 or 15.00 per share he need not put up a single sen for the exercise. The 1 billion ringgit in the company will set off any money put up to buy..

If I am the controlling shareholder I will do exactly that because the company is so profitable and the future of the motorcycle business in Malaysia and Vietnam look very promising. The company is a cash cow at the rate it is churning out cash..There is no reason the company is trading at PE of 9 or 10. The share is worth at least 15.00. Furthermore the land bank is valued at cost in the accounts. In reality, the market value is worth 50 to 100 times more.

Hence, to me this company is a best buy in the market at current price. Merry Christmas to all smart investors.

Posted by x3mg33 > 2019-11-26 13:41 | Report Abuse

Well said kywoo

Posted by TabulaRasa > 2019-11-26 13:42 | Report Abuse

In reality, the market value is worth 50 to 100 times more.

Mr Woo, surely this is a typo...haha

Posted by kywoo > 2019-11-26 14:01 | Report Abuse

No. This is not a typo. Company has a vast land bank in both freehold and leasehold industrial land in good localities. They were bought some 20 to 30 years ago. The book value per sq ft is only a few ringgit. Check this out from the Annual Report and you will understand..I believe industrial land should be worth 50 to 200 ringgit pet as ft.

Posted by Fabien "The Efficient Capital Allocater" > 2019-11-26 16:40 | Report Abuse

if you take heed of what mr.market does, i fear for your mental heath.

last week, HLIND drop to 9.70. within 2 days, mr.market "valued" it at 10.48

within a week, the company valuation changed by 250mil

Posted by yklip > 2019-11-26 17:14 | Report Abuse

守得云开见天明

Posted by x3mg33 > 2019-11-26 17:47 | Report Abuse

Why suddenly so much interest in this counter?

Posted by x3mg33 > 2019-11-26 18:27 | Report Abuse

17 Sen interim dividend!! Well done HLIND

Posted by x3mg33 > 2019-11-26 18:27 | Report Abuse

Tomorrow rocket..., sky the limit!

Posted by yklip > 2019-11-26 19:37 | Report Abuse

share of profit from associate drop so much..

Posted by vegebird > 2019-11-26 19:51 | Report Abuse

Basically the profit is drag down by the associate, if we were to exclude this, the core net profit is actually improved by about 20%. Besides, the FCF is increasing tremendously.

Posted by x3mg33 > 2019-11-26 20:05 | Report Abuse

FCF increase by 150mio QoQ.... if this continues... please do the maths hahha

Posted by yklip > 2019-11-26 20:35 | Report Abuse

and also the operating expenses decreases as the revenue grows!

Posted by sosfinance > 2019-11-27 09:18 | Report Abuse

1) Good news, domestic market up 24% or RM20m in profit (RM102m), cash balance up RM200m to RM1.2m, interim dividend higher at 17 sen vs 15 sen.

2) Bad news, associate, Yamaha Vietnam, dropped from about RM10m to RM7m (share of profit) vs previous year about RM24m, as motorcycled peaked in 2018 and Yamaha 2 new models yet so see results. And higher tax by RM5m

3) Overall, cash flow improve almost RM20m this quarter, more than enough to offset the drop of accounting share of profit to RM7m from RM24m. Dividend is expected to be better than last year, thanks to better cash flow. Est. 54 sen, at RM10.60, DY is 5.1%.

Posted by Fabien "The Efficient Capital Allocater" > 2019-11-27 10:44 | Report Abuse

This company is a cash generating machine. Incredible cash flows.

Posted by RainT > 2019-11-27 10:50 | Report Abuse

haha

the review of performance & prospects so simple, just 3 sentences

Posted by Fabien "The Efficient Capital Allocater" > 2019-11-27 11:49 | Report Abuse

it's not far fetched to predict this company can produce annual FCF of 500-600mil (>10% of current market cap)

Posted by TabulaRasa > 2019-11-28 08:20 | Report Abuse

It's a small point to note but we should not forget this : Not all of the FCF belongs to HLI, as most of the profits come from HLYamaha Motors, which HLI only owns 69.41%.

You consolidate 100% of cash in the accounts but only 69.41% belongs to you.

Posted by kywoo > 2019-11-28 17:03 | Report Abuse

Overall dividend expected for 2020 is between 55 sens to 60 sens. I.e. 17 sens plus 38 sens. or 17sens plus 43 sens.. The company policy is to increase dividend pay out every year. It is only the quantum increase that excite us.

Posted by SilverHawk > 2019-11-28 20:14 | Report Abuse

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/606280

HLind included in new syariah list. Rocketing !!