Posted by samcghee > 2012-11-27 11:32 | Report Abuse

Wait it further drop, then we will collect it below 1.30! Down trend.

Posted by samcghee > 2012-11-27 11:41 | Report Abuse

Hope today it will drop till below 1.30, then further till 1.25; then it is time to slowly collect it. As most people expected this company will announce div but ultimately disappointed . Therefore the price is down now

Posted by Melvin G > 2012-11-27 17:10 | Report Abuse

1.30 already. ahh my mflour warrant bath in blood =(

Posted by moven00 > 2012-11-27 17:15 | Report Abuse

Samcghee,

It cannot declare dividend bcoz the special payout previously and the uncertainty. So nothing much to expect, even got losses in one of the quarter. Albeit for working capital and expansion.

Posted by yfchong > 2012-11-27 18:57 | Report Abuse

Ha ha now have to Makan roti gardenia, maybank ib research target index at 159X achieve last week prediction congrats, now I am poorer seems that need to reload to ave down may be start at 1.25 guess else I am holding to ave down sob sob...............

Posted by yfchong > 2012-11-27 22:13 | Report Abuse

Now champion is KLCI, would enter soap drama when there conclude a sharp drop the safe entry point I guess so, by then all over is red indicator. Now monitoring......... Next would be Christmas sale......

Posted by samcghee > 2012-11-28 08:15 | Report Abuse

Nothing to worry about this stock. I strongly believed that most of the retail investors would lose the money when they invest this company after the ex-date of bonus/split/ warrant. If we r long term investor and the stock price is going down, then it shall be a good time to collect it. Be patient and wait for next round.

Posted by samcghee > 2012-11-30 16:28 | Report Abuse

Drop again till 1.25 or 1.20, then we can start to collect it again. It further down till 1.10 , then collect some more. The next round shall be wait for next quarter result.

Posted by Hustle > 2012-11-30 16:32 | Report Abuse

Ok bro relax please,don't need to be over excited...calm down

Posted by samcghee > 2012-12-03 15:17 | Report Abuse

Hustle, what is yrs expected price to go in to buy? Of course the lowest the best! Am I right? A lot retail investors experienced loss. I expected the stock will going to further down till 1.10 .

Posted by Hustle > 2012-12-03 16:16 | Report Abuse

Hi Samcghee I dunno what is the expected price,just follow the market interest.Since price is not a major factor,just depends on how people value it.For 2012 suppose all the benefit already pay out,so what left is the future earning at 2013.

Posted by yfchong > 2012-12-03 19:23 | Report Abuse

Well 1.25 first entry. See how first ave down.......

Posted by samcghee > 2012-12-03 20:23 | Report Abuse

Thanks ! Since there is not good news in short term for this company. It is good to wait for one month before CNY . 1.25 can be consider or less than 1.20 is the best.

Posted by yfchong > 2012-12-03 23:44 | Report Abuse

Movement of stock price will be opposed to grain price, only way is having good weather and be kind to mother earth, then this stock will behave accordingly............just my 0.0000000001 cts, .......sob sob

Posted by Hustle > 2012-12-03 23:46 | Report Abuse

Hi Sam if you really want to estimate the price, please refer to his 5 years chart and pay attention on the pricing on each years that encounter some critical situation.

Posted by samcghee > 2012-12-04 16:20 | Report Abuse

Hustle, thanks for yrs advice. Today the price is going to touch 1.25. Be patient to wait

Posted by Wong Bo Keong > 2012-12-04 16:45 | Report Abuse

this time is the longest drop. report shown something positive also drop..

Posted by Hustle > 2012-12-04 16:53 | Report Abuse

Report already cannot bring any effect already,since everybody also behave like like road runner now.

Posted by Bryan Ng > 2012-12-04 18:07 | Report Abuse

Mflour is doomed.....

Posted by samcghee > 2012-12-04 20:28 | Report Abuse

Everyday dropping 2 or 3 cents , after 7-10 days , the price will touch RM 1.00. Yeah！ that time may be is the best time to buy. Awaiting it continuously drop and I expect tomorrow will also drop again.

Posted by yfchong > 2012-12-04 21:15 | Report Abuse

Looks like need to self readjust 1.05 as entry level.....looooooog term holding, ......

Posted by Hustle > 2012-12-05 14:34 | Report Abuse

Hi Guys where can we check the company paid up capital?

Posted by euscilyn > 2012-12-05 15:00 | Report Abuse

malayan flour mill homepage.

Posted by Hustle > 2012-12-05 15:01 | Report Abuse

TQ

Posted by samcghee > 2012-12-06 11:24 | Report Abuse

Dropping again.

Posted by Alex King > 2012-12-06 11:42 | Report Abuse

this is good counter ?

Posted by Wong Bo Keong > 2012-12-06 17:42 | Report Abuse

the share price drop almost 50% from peak. I don't see any serious damage to the future that cause the 50% drop..

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-12-06 17:54 | Report Abuse

This is how even a good value investor would see it without background information:

Posted by kcchongnz > Dec 4, 2012 11:00 AM | Report Abuse

K C Loh, you gave me a tough one. Yes MFlour is not on my radar screen, but most of all, I don't know anything about the company and its business. First of all, I don't know why they did so badly this year as compared to its previous years before their corporate exercise when they have been earning consistent profit and good growth. It would be easier to value a business with consistent growth and profit, like that of Kfima when the assumptions would not run too much. For example, Mflour's annual profits have been in the region of 70-80 m for the last 5 years, why the last 3 quarters dropped so much to only 15 m, and earnings per share of just 3.4 sen? I think a lot of scuttlebutt works need to be done to find out why and what would be its future earnings prospect. This would be beyond what I can do as an individual investor. Ok I will still give a shot of a simple valuation method using Graham's method. V=EPS*(8.5+2*g)*4.4/Y. Using annualized EPS of 6 sen and a liberal assumption of g of 15% for the next 5 years, V= 58 sen. See you may say that I am nuts to say Mflour's intrinsic value is 58 sen when its share price is RM1.28.

-------

This is my understanding :

Posted by KC Loh > Dec 4, 2012 11:30 AM | Report Abuse

No problem kcchongnz. They went on expansion as their plants and mills has reached 90% capacity. They paid out a handsome special dividend before commencing the business of expansion indicating, to me at least, that tough times ahead without dividend payout and good earning reports! But positives, like mentioned earlier, already two good quarters despite tough climate environment leading to margin squeeze on wheat price. That's the same guess I have if you reported one "bad" quarter of earning (should write here LOSS) which I think short termism investors and analyst picked up! PE and EPS goes up the smoke! I am continually picking up MFLOUR shares due to this market frown of MFLOUR currently.

And thank you again. You know I value your opinion and time to help!

------------

So as you can see, even if it reports good earnings as it did after one quarter loss, market can be very unforgiving! its up to how long the herd will take it before this stock climbs. If you want my valuation, i think it should be in the 1.6x range now! good opportunity to take advantage of Mr Market's manic! To me, looking at financial report alone is not enough.

‘I am a better investor because I am a businessman and a better businessman because I am an investor.’ ~ Warren

Posted by Hustle > 2012-12-06 19:17 | Report Abuse

Not you only KC,I'm also get screw at Jaks just 3 quarter result cannot compensate 2011 loss,investor directly kill the goose.Next time,will learn from the mistake,very good lesson to paid for.

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-12-06 19:30 | Report Abuse

:)

In danger, opportunity begets! ~ old Chinese proverb!

Posted by Hustle > 2012-12-06 20:07 | Report Abuse

Will join you to make bread soon...wait for me...

Posted by minitrader > 2012-12-07 08:30 | Report Abuse

bread expired lor

Posted by euscilyn > 2012-12-07 10:27 | Report Abuse

NVM can toast again to be roti kok...nice also...\\(>;<)//

Posted by Raj Kumar Maharajah > 2012-12-07 13:51 | Report Abuse

which are the blue chips which give good dividens upto 4 x per year ? Sorry to ask such a basic question, I am new to stock marketing.

Posted by yfchong > 2012-12-07 22:02 | Report Abuse

This counter should move forward n reward investor thru their committed business model n growth plans................

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-12-07 22:16 | Report Abuse

Yes it should, but Mr Market still confused. :)

Don't worry, let price fluctuation be an opportunity to buy!

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-12-07 22:24 | Report Abuse

Taking the earlier example from discussion with kcchongnz, you note that he acknowledged it was profitable and good growth until management decided to go expansion resulting in one quarter loss! Has management changed? I think not. I think management who utilize earnings to plough back into company for growth will eventually enhance accretive value of the company unless market has reached saturation and no more avenue to growth. Berkshire itself is a prime example of how a great capital allocator utilize money for future growth resulting in today's lofty price of, what 140k for a class A share?

Keep buying in and wait it out, that's the advice! :)

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-12-07 22:27 | Report Abuse

But if cannot wait, there are definitely better opportunity elsewhere! :)

Posted by moven00 > 2012-12-08 10:34 | Report Abuse

Ah Loh, minitrader and all, we need to volunteer to work at the factory every Saturday and Sunday to ensure more and more bread are out....
Then demand for flour will go up.
Hahahaha.... Just kidding.
On serious notes, we must be patient ya. Accumulate when it's low. This one really need time. Management still the same except the "Lau Hero" who have passed away this year.
Other than that, I still have confidence with Mflour. Oops and also PPB. Yeahh...

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-12-08 12:05 | Report Abuse

The management knows the demand is there. Any stock giving an EPS of 77 sens, (or is it 74 sens) to the dollar, can't be wrong on demand! :)

That's why after expansion, they are calculating a IRR of 15%. I just wonder what is the current rate with 90% load. No point go work there now. No space due to overcapacity as they said! LoL

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-12-08 12:08 | Report Abuse

Wonder if kcchongnz can help me calculate now intrinsic value if EPS is even 70 sens? Hehehe

Posted by yfchong > 2012-12-08 12:57 | Report Abuse

My expectation defense line 1.25 broken now adjust @ 1.18 as my trial bid any opinion gentlemen, to ave down .............

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-12-08 13:06 | Report Abuse

Whatever price you get now is good value! You guys are mostly trying to fish the bottom! Nothing wrong with that.

More important question is, can you guys take the waiting? Scenarios : what is there is a delay in construction? What if the management has to incur more expenses in their expansion? What if next two quarters still produce so-so results? Like I said, I can wait up to 7 years, and its just something I learned from buffett to shut out market noise for the next 10 years after u know your calculation. Everybody wants to calculate maximum profit no doubt, hence if cannot wait, better opportunities indeed could be out there!

Posted by yfchong > 2012-12-08 13:19 | Report Abuse

Bro KC u are certainly right, now trying to bargain a better offer now line aunty buying grocery in the market similar lah..............

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-12-08 13:20 | Report Abuse

Hahaha bargain away bro, bargain away!

Posted by kcchongnz > 2012-12-08 13:40 | Report Abuse

KC Loh, I read with interest about your close attachment to Mflour. Because of that, I spend a little more time on Mflour to see if it is a fallen angel which would provide an opportunity for a great investment. Mflour has indeed done very well the past years, with revenue increasing every year, including last year. But why was profit so badly affected last three quarters? I read their last three quarter reports and gathered that the problem which was mentioned repeatedly was the "significantly lower profit margins arising from the stiff competition in the market and lower selling prices in feeds and trading in feed ingredient and poultry integration segment". This is also evidenced from their income statement that gross margin for the last three quarters has decreased dramatically from 12.3% to only 7%. I mean gross margin, not net profit margin. Mflour's main chicken business is indeed a very competitive industry where cost of material is very crucial. Notice that even in good times, the net profit margin is just around 5%-6% only. A slight increase in cost can have a significant impact on its bottom line. The crucial question is will the competition stiffen and costs keep on rising, or would it reverse? Please note this is just an opinion of an "armchair analyst".

Posted by gark > 2012-12-08 14:09 | Report Abuse

In the flour business I would rather go with FFM Berhad... their new bread Massimo has largely robust sales from the demise of Silver Bird's High 5, and have enjoyed massive market share. Also their Indonesian unit and Vietnam unit is doubling soon and tripling in 2014. They are also gaining a foothold on Australia by setting up a new flour mill there.

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-12-08 14:17 | Report Abuse

Not a problem kcchongnz! Mflour management always very careful with their words. suggest you go read a report from Alex Lu in 2010 about them! they always state that competition is tough and rising challenges forecast every year, yet returns are always good if not better than previous years!

i may be wrong! dont shoot me! :)

any chance you give me a revised intrinsic value if EPS is 30 sens, since their share split already. just taking all figures into consideration. Thanks ya! :)

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-12-08 14:18 | Report Abuse

sorry the report is on 18th February 2011 entitled "MFlour- another great 'challenging' year (whatever)"

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-12-08 14:33 | Report Abuse

Federal Flour Mill is also good. go find the opportunity outside as i always said! thanks again gark! :)