My friend's father was working for BN now and they are having tour events campaign starting first of January. What he said was it should held after Cny because they need to let the voters have time to appreciate what they gave! (money vouchers angpao green pao)
US appetite for risk up again. buying going on there still. Najib bidding time for market to hit exuberance before calling GE would be my guess! hence delaying tactics!
US representatives will still have to get together to bash out a budget by March remember! expect cash to flow out of US again by then! tax regime will be harsh (may lead to some expected mild contractions in economy by then) leading to funds passing by here, if not already so!
Pyramidpoh, the unpredictable weather is beyond Mflour's management to do anything. But being able to control cost and still return in the black shows they are on top of things even with current high price. If a good weather pattern can be obtain henceforth (looking at the last given report), price of wheat comes down and that's where a bigger margin of profit will be.
But speaking of that, you'll note that mflour management has said they have reached 90% of refining wheat to flour. Unless they expand their refineries (which is incidental what they are doing) ,their profitability has already reached a plateau. The 1Q shows exactly this! But market reacted to their "loss" and hence I tend to believe Mr Market has misappraised this stock and a good buying opportunity.
GE13 will affect all politically affiliated. But beyond that, we need to ask if flour usage will be affected? For me, I think not. So, again.. if the prudent management is ploughing back money into their core business for expansion purposes, isn't that what shareholders should be appreciating?
One more factor will be how much will rise be a staple diet for the booming population of ASEAN? Again the management has assess the situation and note that rice is already in shortage in Indonesia, their target market in 2014 thru JVs. Not too sure if flour is controlled price item in Vietnam or Indonesia, but if free float of market price, then these two countries by sheer number in population, represents 4x and 10x to our own in itself!
So now we go back to buffett's buying tenets! Buy into company you can understand....check Wonderful company for fair price .......check! Has a inherent ability to maintain earning and remain profitable .....check Good management .......check
i think the one you need to look at is the one in Vietnam end-2013 and the possible ones JV with Indonesian companies in 2014! that's where i believe the catalysts for price climb gonna come irrespective if bull comes or not!
management can only do so much when their capacity is already 90% production! they need to expand!
In my own views the mflour management done the right things in first was they expand into foreign nation..but the working capital didn't match with the operation.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
KC Loh
13,701 posts
Posted by KC Loh > 2013-01-07 15:29 | Report Abuse
how about blast off? hehehehe