one of my best ever decision to clear all my stocks last month
@Matthieu, seem like heading to my previous purchase price 1.2-1.4. @sapura, no need wait next QR. This week will hit 1.4; next QR if ugly confirm below 1.2
i wrote this statement to prevent management repeat same mistake/ no excuse to repeat same mistake unless they can clarify their actual reasonable reason to convince us.
from the report,i notice the inventory & biological asset level become high & higher from quarter to quarter.It seem not good for consumer product to keep so big amount of stock for this fast change enviroment. It also cause the cash level drop from 371Mil to 257mil. reduce almost 80mil,(equalvalent to 15 dividend can payout to shareholder).Borrowing 1.12billion also consider high if compare with net earning 72mil per yer. because interest incurred let said 2% already cost 24mil per year or may be more than that.
Foreign currency risk-15mil seem to high when ringgit malaysia become strong.For those who loan in USD 529milRM should benefit from strong ringgit.why it does not happen in this quarter.
3.unless they can solve the high debt & low sales issue.3.if foreign currency loss still appear in coming quarter.4 capital expenditure expect to be incurr 100mil per year. I prefer downgrade to RM1.40 for coming quarter if KLCI at 1790 level. 14/03/2018 17:57 21/03/2018 20:03
Wait till 1.20 or 1.00? I bet you will not dare to buy in if don't know what is happening. When it does retreat to 1.00, you might expect it to go lower to 0.80 ,0.60....etc. This is typical characteristic from most people.
i wrote this statement to prevent management repeat same mistake/ no excuse to repeat same mistake unless they can clarify their actual reasonable reason to convince us.
from the report,i notice the inventory & biological asset level become high & higher from quarter to quarter.It seem not good for consumer product to keep so big amount of stock for this fast change enviroment. It also cause the cash level drop from 371Mil to 257mil. reduce almost 80mil,(equalvalent to 15 dividend can payout to shareholder).Borrowing 1.12billion also consider high if compare with net earning 72mil per yer. because interest incurred let said 2% already cost 24mil per year or may be more than that.
Foreign currency risk-15mil seem to high when ringgit malaysia become strong.For those who loan in USD 529milRM should benefit from strong ringgit.why it does not happen in this quarter.
3.unless they can solve the high debt & low sales issue.3.if foreign currency loss still appear in coming quarter.4 capital expenditure expect to be incurr 100mil per year. I prefer downgrade to RM1.40 for coming quarter if KLCI at 1790 level.
Becareful of this counter, Foreign currency risk, Low sales high debt & high level of inventory & biological ,high capital expenditure may cause uncertainty of future profit. TP 1.30 by end of 2018
Revenue (Mar2018) 563mil (Mar17) 604mil decrease 6.8% (Mar2018) 563mil (Dec2017) 591mil means drop 4.8% ,it means no increase in revenue & also means that new plant still not bring any contribution to this quarter revenue & sales figure keep on droping,beware of this issue.
Cost of good sold (Mar2018) 509mil (Mar 17) 527mil operating expenses (Mar2018) 47mil (Mar 17) 40mil why operating expenses increase 7mil when sales drop 6.8% impposible,i fear there is a wastage in production.
Interest expenses keep on increase (Mar2018) 6.7mil (Mar 17) 5.9mil due to loan undertake keep on increase .It nearly 2 time of current quarter net profit.
Share of (loss)/profit of equity accounted joint venture, net of tax (Mar2018) -1.5mil (Mar 17) 333K, it means our foreign investment in indonesia & vietnam bring negetive return for this quarter.
Foreign currency gain (Mar2018)-16.7mil (Mar2017) 4.6mil, Foreign currency gain (Mar2018)-16.7mil (Dec2017) -15mil,it means that what we hope the foreign currency gain from the bulk purchase(in USD) due to Strength of ringgit also unachieveable.imppossible happen in continues 2 quarter report incurred loss.What actually management achieve?
Segmental sales & profit Flour & Grain trading revenue (Mar2018) 406mil (Mar17) 403mil increase 0.7% Profit (Mar2018) 5.85mil (Mar17) 22.39mil drop 73.8% With this comparison means even though revenue increase ,profit keep on droping,rediculous !
Poultry Integration revenue(Mar2018) 157mil (Dec2017) 200mil decrease 21.5 % Profit (Mar2018) 1.55mil (Dec2017) 13.38mil drop 89% With this comparison means revenue drop ,profit droping even bigger,wil this trend be continue for coming quarter? this is important due to this segment contribute 27.88% of total revenue.
From the cash flow statement we realise that capital expenditure keep on increase fr Acquisition of property, plant and equipment and intangible assets Mar2018(64,851,000) Mar 2017(18,746,000) Increase in investment in a joint venture (8,119,000),total up 73mil & cause cash in hand drop RM355mil (Mar2017) to 238mil (Mar2018),when can all of us get the return from the above huge capital expenditure? 1year,2 year or 5 year? If new plant still not bring contribution by next year ,how to convience investor coming quarter revenue & profit will increase. I can't even continue my analysis.
As a conclusion, due to revenue & profit can not improve & cap expenditure keep on increase, i rather put the TP RM1.10 by end of 2018 even though the company NTA RM1.46.
If there word ICULS appear, people will say that this company is in a bad business, alot bad debt not worth to further pump in money. But things alwasy got bad and good, see how we look into and how the surrounding business environment, even sometime we cant predict. For me i am also not sure, maybe it a good oppurtunity to continue pump in because the price keep on drop, worth to buy. For me the problem is the management, if you seen their track record in the past 15 year, business not bad, turn over ok, good dividend (that time every one say rather die to own it, now everyone say luckily sold early). Now the main problem is their financial report terrible, bad debt alot, business return failed (mayb competitor, raw material cost, world trade issue, i think other company also facing same issue but mayb their debt not so much so can hold). Howabout we think is this way, if ICULS can help them turn back to good track, management team change people, business restructure (back on their origin core business or review their poultry, reduce debt, put up the sales. I think it still worth to buy in in this low price, but if the management still dint change and fail us, then mayb that their end of time. As a long term investment, if their management can convince me, i do will continue pump in money. So one question, do anyone know their management. If got, pls told the management, pls convince their shareholder, give us some confident to show that you guys all is put in effort.
If not mistaken, Mflour just built a new jetty some 5 years ago in Lumut flour mill plant. But now request another RM48mil for extension of the existing jetty and upgrading of the ship unloader to allow larger ship to come in. My question is: How much saving for allowing Kamsarmax vessel of 84,000 deadweight tonnage to facilitate the unloading? How long is the breakeven from the saving?
Flour & Grain trading revenue (Mar2018) 406mil (Mar17) 403mil increase 0.7% Profit (Mar2018) 5.85mil (Mar17) 22.39mil drop 73.8% With this comparison means even though revenue increase ,profit keep on droping,rediculous !
Poultry Integration revenue(Mar2018) 157mil (Dec2017) 200mil decrease 21.5 % Profit (Mar2018) 1.55mil (Dec2017) 13.38mil drop 89% With this comparison means revenue drop ,profit droping even bigger,wil this trend be continue for coming quarter? this is important due to this segment contribute 27.88% of total revenue. 01/06/2018 23:32
From the cash flow statement we realise that capital expenditure keep on increase fr Acquisition of property, plant and equipment and intangible assets Mar2018(64,851,000) Mar 2017(18,746,000) Increase in investment in a joint venture (8,119,000),total up 73mil & cause cash in hand drop RM355mil (Mar2017) to 238mil (Mar2018),when can all of us get the return from the above huge capital expenditure? 1year,2 year or 5 year? If new plant still not bring contribution by next year ,how to convience investor coming quarter revenue & profit will increase. I can't even continue my analysis.
As a conclusion, due to revenue & profit can not improve & cap expenditure keep on increase, i rather put the TP RM1.10 by end of 2018 even though the company NTA RM1.46. 01/06/2018 23:49
fr the above statement indicate profit may be realise after 2 years or need take more time due to testing n commissioning & get local authority approval before start production.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Sebastian Sted Power
3,429 posts
Posted by Sebastian Sted Power > 2018-04-03 19:02 | Report Abuse
one of my best ever decision to clear all my stocks last month
@Matthieu, seem like heading to my previous purchase price 1.2-1.4.
@sapura, no need wait next QR. This week will hit 1.4; next QR if ugly confirm below 1.2