Posted by Simon_khoo > 2020-11-09 09:05 | Report Abuse

All fund managers are chasing now...

Posted by Super_Ivan_Man > 2020-11-09 09:16 | Report Abuse

Rocket warmup..

Posted by Tokay111 > 2020-11-09 09:21 | Report Abuse

Been waiting this rebound for a long time

Posted by Simon_khoo > 2020-11-09 09:38 | Report Abuse

Greedy44444, the share price has answered your question

Posted by silverwave > 2020-11-09 09:39 | Report Abuse

great to see this counter moving after so long

Posted by JJchan > 2020-11-09 09:51 | Report Abuse

sorry i have deleted my post just now to counter check whether i have made a error.

1) Still legal + illegal Cigs market size is around 650---700mil Per month And
2) Vap market size per month is estimated by JIT-------350mil Per month (based on 100% error
on illegal Market size estimate of 2bil-----i used 4 bil )

Regardless how i twist the Data, Vap is a very Huge market ( 50% of Tobacco Market / month )

Now it is Legal and BAT can expand on it-----For sure BAT revenue will breach 1.5Bil per Qr in
2021 given the size of VAP biz

Posted by JJchan > 2020-11-09 09:56 | Report Abuse

Will VAPE cannibalise on normal Tobacco Market. The Data i used is 3Qr2020 and VAP market has existed 3--4years ago. So this is a " New Market " growing along Old Tobacco Cigs

Posted by Above60percent > 2020-11-09 09:58 | Report Abuse

As expected it would go up, it will go up more in the coming months.

Posted by Togetherweearn > 2020-11-09 10:17 | Report Abuse

Will climb up to 13 soon.

Posted by Simon_khoo > 2020-11-09 10:21 | Report Abuse

Let’s see whether EPF increase its portfolio or not in the Ofer days...

Posted by troy88 > 2020-11-09 10:33 | Report Abuse

Nice. Finally woke up.

Posted by IronShirt > 2020-11-09 10:41 | Report Abuse

JJ, you said Chart may extend price 50?

Posted by flyingtomoon2020 > 2020-11-09 11:00 | Report Abuse

https://m.malaysiakini.com/news/550064

Posted by kokchengkai > 2020-11-09 11:01 | Report Abuse

Ironshirt 50 impossible la... Except they shift back factory to malaysia n enjoy tax incentive 15 years.

Posted by flyingtomoon2020 > 2020-11-09 11:01 | Report Abuse

Buy buy or bye bye?

Posted by JJchan > 2020-11-09 11:02 | Report Abuse

Look at F&N results ( 30 Sept 2020 )
Revenue: 953mil......Profit: 85.7mil......Dividend: 33 cents ( DY: 1% )......Price RM32

2) Nestle Results ( 30Jun 2020 )
Revenue: 1.219Bil....Profit: 105mil.......Dividend: 70 cents ( DY: 0.5% )....Price RM140

3) Current BAT Dividend yield is 2% based on lastest Qr

With Gov intention to Cut-Off illegal Cigs, BAT will return to its 2015 Revenue base around 1.2Bil
( double current 3Q, revenue ) So my last Dividend estimate is just Nestle's dividend payout
at 70 cents in 2021 per Quarter.

It is very Obvious BAT revenue will exceed 1.2Billion given VAPE biz is almost 50% of
normal Tobacco. It is full Legal Jan 2021.

RM 50 price Tag is just a estimate, given Nestle price at 140 (now) at DY of only 0.5% And
no possible of "Explosion" increase in Sale Revenue as BAT in 2021. Just hold on to your
Nuts next year

Posted by JJchan > 2020-11-09 11:13 | Report Abuse

Shifting Factory back to Malaysia from Indonesia has no financial Gain. There is No ASEAN tax
when exporting within this Region (fully rectified in 2016).

Posted by JJchan > 2020-11-09 11:47 | Report Abuse

I think recent Change in "ownership" has some bearing on what BAT real intention for
next year. Why change ownership to BAT( Export )? Are BAT going to massively increase
export VAPE to Malaysia to Grab market shares? BAT also has huge market for "HNB" Cigs too
(worldwide 9mil customers ) Heat Not Burn( HNB ) will also be Legalised in 2021 by paying
10% Gov Tax ( another fast Growing Market beside Vape)

Posted by Simon_khoo > 2020-11-09 11:53 | Report Abuse

JJ, very thorough details.
Thx

Posted by gemfinder > 2020-11-09 12:21 | Report Abuse

up up up

Posted by Simon_khoo > 2020-11-09 13:04 | Report Abuse

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/bat-malaysia-8-investors-weigh-budget-2021-proposal-curb-illicit-cigarette-trade

Posted by Simon_khoo > 2020-11-09 13:05 | Report Abuse

Another buy call, from RHB this time

Posted by kevinobc > 2020-11-09 13:18 | Report Abuse

https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/550064

Posted by Above60percent > 2020-11-09 13:21 | Report Abuse

RHB’s higher TP for BAT Malaysia at RM12.30 translates into an 8% dividend yield for the stock.

According to him, CGS-CIMB maintained its "add" call for BAT Malaysia shares with an unchanged TP at RM12.65.

Posted by JJchan > 2020-11-09 13:40 | Report Abuse

Now i comparing TopGlove and BAT (bcos i think 2021 BAT will beat Nestle Hands Down)

1) TopGlove Max. revenue latest Qr at 3.0Bil
2) BAT 1Q21 will most likely Hit 1.5Bil ( 1.2B from Normal Cigs And about 300mil from Vap excluding HNB cigs )
3) Surely TG Cannot maintain Dividend payout Ratio as BAT bcos inorder for TG to expand they
need massive Capital and Labour
---BAT on the other Hand import from Indonesia (no Labour problem and Indo has massive Volcanic soil for very Healthy Tobacco planting )
4) This is the winning point for Goreng Boys---TG got 8 billion shares And BAT got 286mil shares. Basically TG is 28X larger than BAT, the moment any Bad news Hit TG, price easily plunged

Technically BAT is King of Hill next year 2021

Posted by Simon_khoo > 2020-11-09 13:48 | Report Abuse

JJ, can’t compare these two stocks:

1). BAT is dividend stock
2). TG rewards it’s shareholders with bonus issue

Posted by JJchan > 2020-11-09 14:02 | Report Abuse

I am NOT comparing Apple and Orange, I am comparing from the "Goreng" side ( what contra
players feel deep down )

Posted by Simon_khoo > 2020-11-09 14:15 | Report Abuse

Let’s see whether BAT can close above rm11.00 today

Posted by dompeilee > 2020-11-09 14:55 | Report Abuse

Bought some BAT

Posted by Simon_khoo > 2020-11-09 15:03 | Report Abuse

Strong fund managers buy

Posted by gemfinder > 2020-11-09 15:10 | Report Abuse

yahoo

Posted by silverwave > 2020-11-09 15:22 | Report Abuse

awesome show by BAT

Posted by williamh > 2020-11-09 16:25 | Report Abuse

Cheers

Posted by williamh > 2020-11-09 16:38 | Report Abuse

Cheers 11,cheers 12 tomorrow

Posted by birkincollector > 2020-11-09 17:12 | Report Abuse

great performance

Posted by Simon_khoo > 2020-11-09 17:14 | Report Abuse

6.4m volume traded, guess who are the buyers?
Cheers!

Posted by SinGor > 2020-11-09 17:23 | Report Abuse

i think epf , bankers, kwsp went in first. Usually when Bankers hate any stock, they release Tp
20seconds after any announcement. Today they are Buying All Day long. Tomolo, first Limit-up
as ikan Bilis want a share too

Posted by SinGor > 2020-11-09 18:08 | Report Abuse

so many BAT-Man and family buying today

Posted by silverwave > 2020-11-09 18:16 | Report Abuse

what new TP we should set? 12?

Posted by SinGor > 2020-11-09 18:21 | Report Abuse

tomolo 14

Posted by Simon_khoo > 2020-11-09 18:45 | Report Abuse

I still think institutional buyers play tomorrow

Posted by SinGor > 2020-11-09 18:57 | Report Abuse

I check backwards to see when BAT (mother ever) bought back any shares. Run back 6 years
didnt see a single Buy....Today first Buy (100 shares )....This must be a Signal, i Guess .

Posted by Equityengineer > 2020-11-09 19:04 | Report Abuse

Its wonderful to see BAT rise 7% today, hope it goes to 12-13 and if the revenue can reach like those in 207-2018 level then i believe 20.00 is set to have be achievable very soon.. of course dividend growth will have further catalyst.

Posted by kokchengkai > 2020-11-09 19:17 | Report Abuse

（吉隆坡9日讯）2021年财政预算案未对手套公司征收暴利税，令市场松了一口气，加上慷慨派发65亿令吉援助现金，分析员认为对马股略为正面，但仍不足大幅提振企业盈利。

企业盈利无法大幅提振
分析员表示，手套、消费、烟草、建筑以及医疗保健领域是这次预算案主要赢家。

艾芬黄氏研究指出，2021年财政预算案并不足以让该行上调马股每股净利预测，因此将富时综指年杪目标保持在1650点水平，或等于2020财政年预测本益比19倍，特别是获得手套股强力的支持。惟整体的盈利复苏及估值欠缺吸引力。

旅游航空酒店等未获有力协助
“2021年财政预算案并没有为受疫情严重打击的旅游及相关行业提供有力协助，例如航空业、机场、酒店、零售商以及相关服务领域。至于雇员公积金缴纳率降低2至9%，以及持续暂缓贷款供款措施将仅是短期权宜之计。”

联昌研究指出，2021财政年预算案对马股上市公司盈利及股市稍为正面，特别是2021年推出较高消费及基建开销。手套股没有被征收暴利税令市场松了一口气。

马银行研究则认为，2021年财政年预算案对马股盈利前景的影响为中和，或对整体股市略为正面，而从财政预算案受惠的领域，则包括手套股（较少的税捐）、建筑（拥有攫取新工程合约的潜能），以及科技股领域（提供显著的供应链配发的奖掖）等。
电子烟液征税
有利股英美烟草
联昌表示，政府向电子烟液征税将有利股英美烟草（BAT,4162,主板消费产品服务组），因为这将增加营收基础。预算案提及巴生河流域捷运地下铁第三路线及隆新高铁，预料对铁道工程业者有利、更多卫生部拨款及疫苖及医药治疗税务豁免将有利医院及药剂业领域。

马银行研究看好及加码中资本金融服务领域、公用事业、测字业、医疗保健／手套股、建筑、汽车、大资本油气股以及选择性的科技股（成长股）、产业投资信托（回酬率）、产业（价值），以及种植股（并购主题等）。

政府仍有财务空间抗疫
艾芬黄氏研究指出，2021年度财政预算案总开销增加10%，以全面地解决各方面需求，包括出乎市场预料的减税及降低雇员公积金缴纳率，专注在国内需求以支持2021年经济成长。

该行指出，这项扩张式的财政预算案，使财政赤字达到2021年国内生产总值的5.4%，该行认为，在政府应对疫情实施较长期的封锁行动下，预料政府尚有空间采取财务挹注行动。

艾芬黄氏研究认为，财政部预测2021年经济成长介于6.5至7.5%之间，比较2020年料为负成长4.5%。这显示政府在面对冠病疫情的挑战下，仍然看好2021年的经济成长表现。

未征暴利税
手套股有扬升空间
市场之前预期政府可能向手套公司实施暴利税，惟政府仅是向4大手套股征收总共4亿令吉的抗疫税捐，这比市场之前预测来得好，因为4亿令吉税捐仅占它们3至5%的预测净利，这可是微不足道，所以预料这些手套股尚有扬升空间。

发展开销增有利建筑基建
政府于2021年的发展开销按年增加38%至690亿令吉，这将对建筑及基建领域有利，惟目前国内政治不明朗及2021年可能举行闪电全国大选，这使建筑及基建股可能未能达到预期表现。政府拨出15亿令吉协助贫穷群体应用宽频服务，预料这将对电讯股有利，同时政府也在2021至2022年间拨出74亿令吉建立及加强宽频服务。

艾芬黄氏研究指出，2021年并没有增收罪恶税，同时政府将更积极地采取行动对付走私香烟也受到市场欢迎，特别是合法香烟市场已经萎缩至约30%，这使政府损失约50亿令吉的税收。

汽车建材公用可加码
对于加码的领域，艾芬黄氏研究看好汽车及汽车零件、建筑材料及公用事业等领域，惟若是冠病疫苖比市场预测更早面市，预料将使马股手套股的股价提前崩跌、以及主权评级下调、美元汇率进一步走贬、基金流动、石油价格及地缘性政治等，实是马股投资者应当关注的主要因素。

联昌研究建议持续“加码”手套股，特别是手套股“4大天王”——顶级手套（TOPGLOV,7113,主板医疗保健组）、速柏玛（SUPERMX,7106,主板医疗保健组）、贺特佳（HARTA,5168,主板医疗保健组）以及高产柅品（KOSSAN,7153,主板医疗保健组）。英美烟草则是财政预算案的首选股之一。预料受惠的首选建筑包括、马资源（MRCB,1651,主板产业组）及杨忠礼（YTL,4677,主板公用事业组）。

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2020-11-09 20:04 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PilosopoCapital/2020-11-09-story-h1535690142-_CHOIVO_CAPITAL_BAT_4162_Budget_2021_The_Dark_Knight_Rises.jsp

Posted by InsiderShark > 2020-11-09 20:20 | Report Abuse

good lord, another pump and dump. Unless you plan to hold for 2 or 3 quarters, which you won't, then this coming quarter will be bad too. I dont think the budget thing takes effect until 2021. This means next quarter will be bad too.

Until I can't buy fireworks for cny, i will not touch bat. corruption is the problem. no amount of enforcement will stop because it is simply too lucrative. smugglers will always find a way, instead of smuggling it from indonesia or thailand or philipines, they can smuggle them in separate items and assemble them here, which makes detection harder.

think about it, even under MCO they are able to smuggle it in. just think about it. how do you even control? the only way is to lower the price.

Posted by Above60percent > 2020-11-09 21:06 | Report Abuse

Q3 was not bad. It was better than Q2, and Q2 was better than Q1.

I expect the uptrend to continue for a long time after this budget news.

I target to hold long term, I expect share price to reach a minimum of RM15 next year.

Posted by birkincollector > 2020-11-09 21:08 | Report Abuse

lol how can u say this is pump and dump when it just risen slightly from all time low??

Posted by lotuseater > 2020-11-09 21:43 | Report Abuse

That’s the problem when there are people who are so negative.. if no action taken by government, say no action taken.. now action proposed to curb smuggling, say cannot control...there’s no pleasing people like this.. if u r not satisfied with the proposed action, then just don’t buy..

Posted by SinGor > 2020-11-09 21:54 | Report Abuse

really nobody curb smuggling, you must be a 15years Old just finished SPM. Every inch on Malaysia smuggling route is pre-sighted, not even a fly can passed thru. If a fly can go thru'
Million is lost from someone pocket