Posted by FlyingShark > 2020-05-09 10:41 | Report Abuse

Target rm1.70 by RHB
https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2020/03/24/pos-malaysia039s-transformation-could-set-the-stage-for-earnings-turnaround

Posted by JayC88 > 2020-05-09 12:59 | Report Abuse

wah if really RM1.70 then i will have a big pocket money from my C47

Posted by investortrader88 > 2020-05-09 13:36 | Report Abuse

xterrorsinx Just FYI a more accurate understanding of current demand: Poslaju's sendparcel website traffic has increased 400% from 230k in Jan 2020 to 980k in April 2020. This in comparison with Gdex's 440k in Jan to 685k in April 2020, is a big contrast and change in market share. Do stay with POS as we gear up and crash through KWAP's Gate next Monday!
09/05/2020 12:02 AM

nice sharing bro

Posted by investortrader88 > 2020-05-09 13:39 | Report Abuse

FY19 (due to FYE changed from Mar to Dec) core net loss of RM93m compared to our/consensus full-year estimates of – RM53m/-RM7.7m, came below expectations. The variance to our estimate was due to weaker-than-expected performance in the postal services segment. However, due to the upward revision in postal rates for registered mails, commercial mails and small parcels following Government’s approval, effective 1 February 2020, we keep our FY20E forecasts unchanged. TP is RM1.95 unchanged based on 18x FY20 EPS. Reiterate OP.

Results’ highlights. QoQ, 3QFY19 Core Net Losses (CNL) excluding provision for re-delivery of aircraft (RM28.6m) and impairment loss of goodwill in Logistics and Aviation segments (RM93.9m) widened to RM48.6m from RM29.3m in 2QFY19 due to enlarged losses from mail segment as a result of declining mail volumes, reflecting the increasing substitution of letters with electronics media and elevated opex to serve the Universal Service Obligation (USO). This is further exacerbated by losses at Courier due to lower volume from walk-in customers.

YoY, FY19 CNL widened to RM93m compared to RM25m in 9MFY18 due to: (i) continuous structural decline in traditional mail volume largely on electronic substitution, (ii) higher losses at International which we believe was partly due to lower utilisation rate, and (iii) lower contribution at Logistics due to completion of a project.

Tariff hikes for commercial postage rates. The upward revision in postal rates is a positive to Pos Malaysia Berhad (POSM) which will be raising postage rates for registered mails, commercial mails and small parcels following Government’s approval, effective 1 February 2020. However, we would have preferred for the tariff to be increased based on a schedule or formula possibly indexed to inflation or based on certain quantitative or even qualitative KPIs, as compared to the onetime adjustment. The key risk of this one-time adjustment includes the inability of POSM to fully accommodate its social and commercial responsibilities, especially if the hike in commercial postal rates potentially causes mail volumes to deteriorate even further from current levels. Meanwhile, given POS’ inability to close down post offices, coupled with its unionised workforce and losses in its postal services segment turning the postal division around will remain challenging. However, with the postal rate hike effective 1 Feb, we have pencilled in a lower loss for postal for FY20. The courier business continues to operate in a competitive environment pressured by price and cost challenges. The group is continuing with its efforts to manage cost whilst increasing operating efficiency. The Integrated Parcel Centres (IPC) in Shah Alam and newly completed facility in KLIA has increased the processing capacity by 77% from 300,000 to 530,000 parcels per day.

Maintain OP. Our TP is RM1.95 based on 18x FY20 EPS. The upward revision in postal rates is a positive to POSM which will be raising postage rates for registered mails, commercial mails and small parcels following Government’s approval, effective 1 February 2020.

Risks to our call include: (i) higher-than-expected losses in postal services and (ii) lower-than-expected margins in its courier segment.

Source: Kenanga Research - 26 Feb 2020

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-09 13:39 | Report Abuse

I have to que 1 hour during the MCO.............

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-05-09 13:47 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by i3lurker > 2020-05-09 13:49 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by FlyingShark > 2020-05-09 16:41 | Report Abuse

Target rm 1.95 by kenanga
Woweeeeeewwwwww

Posted by bestman > 2020-05-09 18:06 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by iFag > 2020-05-09 20:05 | Report Abuse

Kenanga Research - 26 Feb 2020 - TP given before MCO la

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-05-09 20:41 | Report Abuse

Well.. when pos malaysia urges public to be patient, you know that they are maxed out at existing capacity of 500k units a day. Is there a clearer picture of their demand than that? Expect their revenue from courier to increase at least 60% next quarter!

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-05-09 20:41 | Report Abuse

https://www.malaymail.com/news/life/2020/04/30/pos-malaysia-urges-public-to-be-patient-for-packages-receiving-600000-parce/1861758

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-05-09 20:48 | Report Abuse

https://www.malaymail.com/news/life/2020/04/30/pos-malaysia-urges-public-to-be-patient-for-packages-receiving-600000-parce/1861758

Posted by oldchinaman > 2020-05-10 01:34 | Report Abuse

Kenanga Research - 26 Feb 2020 - TP given before MCO la. : DON'T regret , this is the opportunity for us to make big money, GOOD LUCK TO ALL

Posted by oldchinaman > 2020-05-10 01:41 | Report Abuse

Hi guys, can consider POS MALAYSIA BHD 4634 1) postage rate hike 100+% for commercial w.e.f 1.2.20( +300m revenue annualy ) 2) POS LAJU courier from 350,000 to 7 - 800,000 parcels per day,( + 350m revenue p.year ) 3). petrol from rm 2.08 to 1.25 p. litre (save 40m p.year ) 4. bank BR 2% ( save 10m p.y) 5) share price Rm 5.50 on 1.aug 17 to rm 1.01 today.
09/05/2020 11:28 PM

Posted by BATFLY > 2020-05-10 08:19 | Report Abuse

@oldchinaman.. Thanks for the simple and logical analysis. After MCO will be a different story plus strong competitors. POS need to beef up their operation efficiency as i have many bad experience with them. Happy trading..

Posted by alvin5588 > 2020-05-10 08:26 | Report Abuse

Next week POS must stand above 1.06, then it may shoot up probably 1.30 - 1.40.. If not then maybe retreat to 0.90..

Posted by tallman > 2020-05-10 15:08 | Report Abuse

I order parcel from online store just now. It charge me RM3.5/item and it says will send by postlaju. Let say pos receive parcels 700000/day, 3 month will be RM3.5 X 700000 parcels X 30 day X 3 months = 220.5mil. This culculation is very conservative because some of the items are bigger and will charge for higher rate (based on weight). The revenue from carrier segment already contribute 7.35mil/quarter. It's not include the postal services. This estimation is for Q3 and not for Q2. Q3 should be positive if they didn't have the impairment. Please correct me if I am wrong. Thank you.

Posted by tallman > 2020-05-10 15:10 | Report Abuse

I don't understand why RHB said pos will make loss in Q2 & Q3.

Posted by FlyingShark > 2020-05-10 17:13 | Report Abuse

A lot saving alone from petrol (40%)
Rhb maybe rushing the report out.miss the reduction
In petrol price

Posted by FlyingShark > 2020-05-10 19:13 | Report Abuse

Posted by mf > May 10, 2020 7:01 PM | Report Abuse

Coronavirus live updates: Russia cases top 200,000

Posted by oldchinaman > 2020-05-10 21:16 | Report Abuse

"tallman: I don't understand why RHB said pos will make loss in Q2 & Q3."

This is good because the RHB analyst gave negative comment then only we get to buy it at a cheaper price in the open market.

If every analyst say it's good, then we have to buy at higher price.

Posted by BATFLY > 2020-05-10 22:41 | Report Abuse

Never trust analyst.. Do you own calculation and judgement... Analyst also human being..van easily be seay aeay..

Posted by BATFLY > 2020-05-10 22:42 | Report Abuse

Sway away...

Posted by mamatede > 2020-05-10 23:16 | Report Abuse

lock down extended, more parcels continue.

Posted by tallman > 2020-05-11 04:59 | Report Abuse

Thanks flying shark, oldchinaman & batfly

Posted by ATARAH > 2020-05-11 10:25 | Report Abuse

POS is beneficiary of locked down
Will continue to rise next 3 weeks

Posted by oldchinaman > 2020-05-11 13:57 | Report Abuse

【行家论股/视频】大马邮政 股价已反映利淡
Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Sat, 7 Mar 2020, 12:23 AM

大马邮政推出以量计酬的“企业家”计划，将包裹处理成本降低28%，同时增加处理量50%。

这项不采底薪制的试点计划，迄今已招募了100多名车手，希望在本财年达到1000人。

大马邮政积极脱售非核心业务，如邮政航空工程有限公司49%股权及“回教典当服务”（Ar Rahnu）等

--

After few days of looking at alot of information and reports, most of them are positive and bright for this company's future.

Posted by JayC88 > 2020-05-11 21:21 | Report Abuse

continue climb up tomorrow!

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-05-11 23:32 | Report Abuse

Yes Jay, Let's continue the run! Remember Wall street rose 2% last friday? + tonight's run tomorrow's going to be great

Posted by ITCHYLEG > 2020-05-12 00:28 | Report Abuse

大马邮政推出以量计酬的“企业家”计划，将包裹处理成本降低28%，同时增加处理量50%。(means CONTRACT BASIC)

Courier Revenue for year 2020 ext rm 11,500,000,000 x 40% (wages cost) = 460,000,000 x28%=rm 128,000.000. + 50% capacity = rm 256,000,000.00 ( cost cut p.year under contract basic)

assume the contract basic( courier section) take 3 years to complete. so year 2020 can save 85.3m .. 2021 can save 170.60m and 2021 can save 256m

Posted by ITCHYLEG > 2020-05-12 00:31 | Report Abuse

Extended trade settlement of up to T+7. Check out the M+ T+7 Contra account. "Expand your profit opportunity."
0

南洋行家论股

Author: Tan KW | Latest post: Sat, 9 May 2020, 8:28 AM

南洋行家论股

Blog Headlines (by Date) Blog Index
【视频】大马邮政 股价还可涨21%
Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Wed, 5 Feb 2020, 8:04 AM



目标价：1.70令吉

最新进展：

随着调涨邮费后，大马邮政（POS，4634，主板交通与物流股）管理层为履行环球服务义务（USO），放眼进一步执行邮费再平衡机制，来建立永续的经济路线图。

基于电子商务快速拓展，有助于加强快递业务，公司放眼取得营业额内部增长，同时也严格管理成本架构。

行家建议：

与大马邮政管理层会面后，我们对公司转亏为盈的展望感到正面。

鉴于振兴计划加强效率，能够降低每件物品的成本、降低劳动力、加快周转时间，以及减少呼叫中心和服务成本。。

管理层估计，占营运开销约40%的雇员开销将改善。

Posted by ATARAH > 2020-05-12 08:47 | Report Abuse

Pos will go higher?

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-05-12 10:00 | Report Abuse

Your chance to add is now at RM 1.

Posted by Eddiesan > 2020-05-12 11:33 | Report Abuse

Normally the price will spike up after few days the tp came out . Best to enter at 1 . As this is the bottom of the tp price before spike up .

Posted by Eddiesan > 2020-05-12 11:34 | Report Abuse

Good luck every1 here ..

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-05-12 11:36 | Report Abuse

Check out Gdex graph and Pos, they're very consistent with each other. But Gdex has risen 20% above POS now. time to grab POS.

Posted by oldchinaman > 2020-05-12 11:39 | Report Abuse

GDEX yearly revenue 350m only

Posted by Eddiesan > 2020-05-12 11:39 | Report Abuse

Xterrorsinx . Agree with you . Now all pos man are taking ot to deliver the outstanding goods . Bunch of stock piling up days by days .

Posted by oldchinaman > 2020-05-12 11:44 | Report Abuse

GDEX market cap rm1.636b and POS 1/2 of it RM 798 m

RIDICULOUS

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-05-12 11:49 | Report Abuse

Pos Laju: https://www.similarweb.com/website/poslaju.com.my
Gdex: https://www.similarweb.com/website/gdexpress.com

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-05-12 11:49 | Report Abuse

Website Traffic Tracking:
Pos Laju: https://www.similarweb.com/website/poslaju.com.my
Gdex: https://www.similarweb.com/website/gdexpress.com

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-05-12 11:53 | Report Abuse

i queue more at 1.01 dy. good luck to all.

Posted by cinapeh > 2020-05-12 12:02 | Report Abuse

Malaysia top blue chip counter year 2022 POS MALAYSIA BHD

Posted by williamtkb > 2020-05-12 12:21 | Report Abuse

I already stock up a lot below rm1. If fall below rm1 will buy more. Once QR turn green will rocket up to rm1. 50 level

Posted by Gemstar > 2020-05-12 12:35 | Report Abuse

Goin to add abit too ... good luck huat ah .., ;)

Posted by FlyingShark > 2020-05-12 13:49 | Report Abuse

Still waiting for mine hair trimmer.DHL is much slower then POS
Hard to believe but is true
incoming revenue is going to be good

Posted by Stock Wizard ( no sell no loss ) > 2020-05-12 14:41 | Report Abuse

queue 1 hour at pos laju QB, okay i will all in poslaju shares

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-05-12 14:52 | Report Abuse

https://www.bharian.com.my/bisnes/korporat/2020/05/685759/pkp-segmen-kurier-pos-malaysia-catat-permintaan-amat-tinggi

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-05-12 15:11 | Report Abuse

The selling pressure. Good if maintain this price.