Posted by mamatede > 2020-05-29 12:35 | Report Abuse

i add on at 1.13.. din expect it to jump so fast.. wah

Posted by MoneyHeist > 2020-05-29 12:38 | Report Abuse

Love it!! Vol high

Posted by lancefire > 2020-05-29 12:55 | Report Abuse

Hehe 1.2 cleared. Next 1.4.

Posted by Moneylover888 > 2020-05-29 15:19 | Report Abuse

Has Pos 1st QR out?

Posted by MoneyHeist > 2020-05-29 15:39 | Report Abuse

We all know that Pos businesses have minimal impact during MCO. Yes other segments are down but that pretty much covered by courier segment. I think Pos is doing very well. Hence people starts buying before QR results as it is dirt cheap. This QR could be still in red but better than YoY but next QR gonna be green all the way to the FY2020! Lock your price!!

Posted by mamatede > 2020-05-29 16:05 | Report Abuse

I'm quite worried about Pos results though, since traditional mails have slowed based on Gdex. And is it true there's no Raya Bonus for their staff? And i think their management pay check too big.

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-05-29 16:13 | Report Abuse

Traditional mails slow down should be cushioned by the increase of 100% in rate. Hopefully can breakeven for traditional mail, and make profit for courier segment.

Posted by MoneyHeist > 2020-05-29 16:15 | Report Abuse

@mamatede to think about it which company can give you bonus for festivals? The FY has not ended yet though. Also, the news on Raya bonus is a scam. Do google it. For mail sector yes i expect it to be down too but i think during the MCO a lot of new traders came in. I am a maybank trade user everytime i buy/sell i will get letters from Maybank. Not sure with other trading platforms. But just imagine how many people has traded past few months. RM1.30 per letter. A lot man.

Posted by da4444 > 2020-05-29 16:30 | Report Abuse

dead cat bounce again?

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-05-29 17:00 | Report Abuse

Something wrong at close

Posted by MichelleNg > 2020-05-29 17:04 | Report Abuse

Must be QR not good. Big fund selling last minit. Huge volume

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-05-29 17:27 | Report Abuse

If they know then it’s insider trading

Posted by chanph > 2020-05-29 17:31 | Report Abuse

Trump annoucement tonight, many will sell off just in case something comes up

Posted by abc333 > 2020-05-29 17:37 | Report Abuse

bad QR + Trump VS china + Tun M kacau lagi

Posted by MoneyHeist > 2020-05-29 18:42 | Report Abuse

Also usually people dont like to hold shares during weekend kut. I think

Posted by da4444 > 2020-05-29 20:58 | Report Abuse

Mana qr? Lambat delivery ke?

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-05-29 21:14 | Report Abuse

an important note for today's last min drop is that there was a quick sale and quick buy from one party to another. I believe these 2 parties are related. MAybe changing hands instead of selling ahead of results. 3 million sahres changed hand in a matter of 10 seconds.

Posted by paperone > 2020-05-29 22:19 | Report Abuse

What happen

Posted by limitupupup > 2020-05-29 22:20 | Report Abuse

QR boom for sure

Posted by paperone > 2020-05-29 22:29 | Report Abuse

What do you mean by qr boom

Posted by JayC88 > 2020-05-29 22:38 | Report Abuse

but there were a lot of counters which had this last min gap down, and huge vol of last min trading. something suspicious?

Posted by ITCHYLEG > 2020-05-29 23:10 | Report Abuse

PUSH DOWN COUNTERS

1)AIRASIA 72.5 to 69c. 134m done.
2)TENAGA 11.84 to 11.26 64m done
3)PUBLIC BANK 15.02 to 14.66 25m done
4)SUNWAY 1.41 to 1.34 23m done
5)POS 1.15 to 1.10 5.1m done

PUSH UP COUNTERS

1)CIMB 3.65 to 3.77 102m done
2)DIALOG 3.77 to 3.99 23M done

EPF PERFORMED THE TIGER SHOW.........

Posted by ITCHYLEG > 2020-05-29 23:19 | Report Abuse

So don't worry our POS last minute gap down , is not related to the quarter result to be announced soon, just TIGER SHOW PERFORMED BY<<<<<<<<<<<<<EPF>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Posted by JayC88 > 2020-05-29 23:21 | Report Abuse

ok seems right. sometimes i don't know to love or hate this epf bugger.

Posted by ngubilly > 2020-05-29 23:47 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/financial/quarter/upcoming.jsp annv date is tomorrow, so does this mean tomorrow will come out qr? Sat people working kah?

Posted by chanph > 2020-05-30 05:22 | Report Abuse

Monday should rebound, no US sanction, GREAT!

Posted by oldchinaman > 2020-05-30 11:59 | Report Abuse

"ITCHYLEG PUSH DOWN COUNTERS

1)AIRASIA 72.5 to 69c. 134m done.
2)TENAGA 11.84 to 11.26 64m done
3)PUBLIC BANK 15.02 to 14.66 25m done
4)SUNWAY 1.41 to 1.34 23m done
5)POS 1.15 to 1.10 5.1m done

PUSH UP COUNTERS

1)CIMB 3.65 to 3.77 102m done
2)DIALOG 3.77 to 3.99 23M done"

All range @ 4 to 4.5%

Posted by abc333 > 2020-05-30 13:52 | Report Abuse

maybe the fund manager thought yesterday is last day of June.

Posted by chanph > 2020-05-30 14:28 | Report Abuse

I heard it happens twice yearly end may and end november.

Posted by chanph > 2020-05-30 15:11 | Report Abuse

Actually there are many stocks facing the same selldown apart from those listed above. Some even turning from green to red.

Posted by Popit79 > 2020-05-30 15:59 | Report Abuse

Next week green

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-05-30 17:50 | Report Abuse

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2020/05/30/brisk-business-for-gdex

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-05-30 18:37 | Report Abuse

On 28 January 2020, shares in Pos Malaysia Bhd rose as much as 10% in early trade this morning after the national courier said it will raise postage rates for registered mail, commercial mail and small parcels below 2kg, effective Feb 1.

At 9.05am, Pos Malaysia rose 11 sen to RM1.55, valuing it at RM1.21 billion. The stock had earlier risen to a high of RM1.60.

From 1.55, dropped till 1.10 with a loss of RM 171m?
1.55-1.1 Market Cap loss = 352m VS inclusive of loss of RM 171m. Where does the difference of RM 181 go?

At RM 1.55, when the news was announced in January, the increase in price was priced in at RM 1.55, giving POS a market cap of RM 1.21b, but increase in courier demand wasnt priced in yet.
With loss of RM 171, shouldnt the market cap be 1.039 b or RM 1.32?

Moreover, at RM 1.32 assumes nothing changed since MCO. But what about the increase in Courier volume by 200%? Savings in Interest of RM 10.8m/year? Savings in Fuel of RM 14m/year?

Gdex up 45% since MCO, would it be too demanding for POS to go up to pre-mco level of RM 1.32 (Inclusive of loss of RM 171m for Dec QR)? We're not greedy, we havent factored in Courier 200% increase, Fuel 14m/year cost decrease, Interest 10.8m/year cost decrease.

For courier segment last year 9 months ended Dec 2019 Profit was RM 14,657 million. This was including a malware attack and impairment write down..

If we take 6 months ended September 2019, profit was RM 47.8m for 2 quarters translating into RM 23.9/QR from Courier segment. IF MCO sales up 200% = RM 47.8m profit / quarter, or 23.9 x 4 = RM 95.6 additional profit/year..

So assuming market has priced in rate increase from postal at RM 1.039b, you now need to add in RM 95.6m Profit + 10.8m + 14m profit = RM 120m/year profit

Now let’s try to do the pricing of POS. On 28th May POS had annual profit of 124m and share price of RM 3.62, giving it market cap of 2.8 billion or PE of 22…

If you’re adding 120m profit with P/E of 10 at RM 1.2b market cap to pre-mco fair price of RM 1.039b (after loss of RM 171m), the numbers will look like 1.2b + 1.039 b = RM 2.239b market cap, translating into RM 2.79 Fair Value.

Interesting Note: POS Courier segment is 2.27 times bigger than Gdex (88m vs 200m per QR).

This QR we are seeing Postal 66% effect rate hikes priced in from 1st Feb to 31st March. It has not factored in the 200% volume +, Fuel Savings, Interest Savings of RM 120m/year.
Next QR would be interesting.

Posted by MichelleNg > 2020-05-30 18:44 | Report Abuse

Yeah...POS undervalued but less people buying. GDEX overvalued and everyone chase to buy higher price. Goreng goreng goreng....

Posted by MoneyHeist > 2020-05-30 20:54 | Report Abuse

Well said @xterrorsinx

Posted by Dave92 > 2020-05-30 21:04 | Report Abuse

Pos Malaysia Bhd said while there is an increase in parcel volume during the country’s movement control order (MCO) period, the company’s other businesses including mail and international parcels, besides operations under Pos Aviation and Pos Logistics have been affected badly.

Overall business still lost making.

So dont dream too big.

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-05-30 21:40 | Report Abuse

aviation constitutes about 13% of their total revenue. They have impaired 93 million for logistics and aviation last quarter. POS also sold 50% of their equity in POS Aviation Engineering to Singapore airlines. I'm hoping the impact is cushioned. I believe that the impact on aviation industry and logistics will really be felt in June QR (MCO started in March 18) but it might be offset by the other gains i mentioned above.

"Pos Logistics Berhad will refocus its business which will see it move into higher-margin and scalable services and shifting its operational model to become asset-lighter. The growing automotive sector contributes greatly to Pos Logistics’ business and we foresee positive growth in 2020.

Pos Aviation is expected to remain resilient in the face of continued global uncertainty brought about by Covid-19. A strategic partnership with SIA Engineering Company (SIAEC) will enable Pos Aviation’s engineering services to tap into the global maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) market, enhance its technical expertise and expand its product offerings."
30/05/2020 9:28 PM

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-05-30 22:02 | Report Abuse

By the way, did anyone notice POS has Deferred Tax Asset of 196m due to their losses in 2018 and 2019? When they start earning money they'll save RM 196m from tax in the future.

Posted by Dave92 > 2020-05-30 22:57 | Report Abuse

Investment Highlights

We project net losses of RM90mil and RM24mil in FY20-– 21F and a net profit of RM31mil in FY22F (vs. a net loss of RM22mil in FY20F and net profits of RM31mil and RM44mil in FY21-–2F previously), largely to reflect lower revenues due to the company’s suspension on some of its’ operations and slower demand amidst the Covid-19 pandemic. We reduce our FV to RM0.58 (from RM1.21 previously), based on a P/B of 0.3x, a 50% discount to its historical P/B of 0.64x, to reflect the unprecedented challenges Pos Malaysia is facing. We downgrade our recommendation to SELL from HOLD.
Pos Malaysia (Pos) will temporarily suspend its international mail and parcel services to most of its destinations (except China, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore and the UK) with effect from 30 March 2020. This is due to the cancellation of flights as well as closure of airports. Based on our back-of-the-envelope calculation, the international mail/parcel services are estimated to make up around 15% of the company's revenues.
Meanwhile, the express mail services (EMS) will continue with limited destinations (Exhibit 1), while its core segments, i.e. postal and courier services are operating at reduced capacity during the movement control order (MCO) period, despite being listed as one of the essential services as demand is subdued.
We are now projecting greater contraction of 35% in mail volume in FY20F (vs. in the low 20s we assumed previously), as we believe the decline in commercial mail volume (which makes up around 90% of the total mail volume) will accelerate further with businesses stepping up on cost-cutting initiatives as revenues fall off the cliff. We also expect some volume losses on the back of business consolidation amid the economic downturn.
We believe the main challenge for the company is its cost inefficiency as a result of a unionized workforce and its inability to significantly rationalize its extensive network of post offices. Not helping either, is the revenue loss with scaled down operations amidst the Covid-19 pandemic. Meanwhile, the courier segment continues to face intense competition, resulting in margin squeeze.

Posted by ITCHYLEG > 2020-05-30 23:32 | Report Abuse

"Dave92 Investment Highlights:"

Are you still sleeping? This news was from 'AmInvest Research Reports' publised on 1 April 2020. Why are you posting this here now? Are you trying to mislead all the readers??? Before you post things here, please apply your knowledge. There are alot of experts here. Don't make a fool out of yourself by posting old news.

We're all here to support and help each other out. We're all in the same boat - to make money. Share the latest news and information.

Posted by cinapeh > 2020-05-30 23:38 | Report Abuse

Attitute illness

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-05-30 23:57 | Report Abuse

If Gdex with Revenue of 88m and profit of circ. 6 million is worth RM 2.1b. How much is POS with revenue of 200m and profit of RM 24m worth? RM 6b? haha. How much can other segments be impaired? more than 1 billion? I think The Courier force is too big to be ignored. Moreover, Logistics and Aviation have resumed to normal now with CMCO. 117% increase in postal rates, drop in fuel price, and interest rates are in POS favour.

There may be short term challenges reflected in this QR, but i hope Shareholders here look at long term into next QR to reap the results of our patience.

No worries Dave, we welcome your input here. It's a good fact check and I hope POS with Tan Sri's daughter on board and their efforts into digitalisation don't disappoint us.

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-05-31 00:44 | Report Abuse

• The journey into mid-mile automation processing began at the Integrated Processing Centres, located in Shah Alam and KLIA, with an aggregated processing capacity of 530,000 items per day.

• During FP2019, the Group continued the automation journey through the upgrading of 20 distribution centres with semiautomatic sorting machines nationwide. Consequently, this has reduced man-hour involved during processing, with savings of approximately 1-2 hours per day. This has also increased the volume of parcel processing per hour of up to 60%.

POS has also installed automation centres and increased their capacity to meet the demand for courier services. They have increased their capacity by 60%. Potentially, this results in 60% decrease in variable costs (eg. 2 person can do 3 people's job now), resulting in lower costs for increase in volume. So the courier segment profit margin should increase.

Posted by Jerry Yip > 2020-05-31 00:46 | Report Abuse

buy

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-05-31 00:58 | Report Abuse

2019 March QR Results

Postal Revenue 189,699
Courier Revenue: 197,642
International: 39, 538
Logistics : 73,042
Aviation: 65,050
Others: 29,708
Total: 594,679 m

Assume International, Logistics, Aviation, others all drop 20%
Assume Courier Revenue up 0%
Assume Postal Volume drop 15%, avg price + 100% (1 feb - 31 march)

2020 Revenue Forecast
Postal Revenue 267,665 (+24.27%)
Courier Revenue: 197,642 (+ 0 %)
International: 31,630 (-20%)
Logistics : 58,434 (-20%)
Aviation: 52,040 (-20%)
Others: 23,766 (-20%)
Total: 631,177 m (+6% or RM 40,176,000)

DRB had sales car increase of 20% for this quarter, so logistics should still do well.

Last March PBT = -133,658, inclusive of Impairment on goodwill: 46m+ Re-delivery one off charge of 44m.
Net Operating loss = RM 43.658 m .

If our revenue increases by RM 40.16 m, we are expecting around RM 3.498 m Loss.

If This QR is RM 3.498m loss, next QR is a BOMB.
200% volume increase in courier, RM 14m/year fuel savings, RM 10.8m/year interest savings. to offset the - RM 3.498 loss this QR.

Potentially looking
Net change in profit for June QR 2020
Postal Services: + RM 103,251 Revenue (100%+ in rate, 15% down in volume)
Courier Services: + 47.8m (200% Courier volume (NP June'19 x 200%))
International: - RM 16,441 (50% drop due to MCO/CMCO)
Logistics: - RM 37,717 (50% drop due to MCO/CMCO)
Aviation: - RM 31,525 (50% drop due to MCO/CMCO)
Others: - RM 14,782 (50% drop due to MCO/CMCO)

Total = +50,586m
+ Fuel Savings 3.5m (assume RM 1.7/l N95 but likely much lower)
+ Interest Savings RM 2.7m (30% drop in Interest)
= + RM 56.78m - 15m (Loss BT June 2019)
= RM 41.78 Profit before Tax

POS has the biggest logistic fleet in Malaysia of 15,000 riders. They have the highest exposure to Oil drop than any company.

POS is therefore likely to turn into black the next QR due to favourable increase in parcel volume as well as Postal Services. IF the other sectors go back to normal, we will expect less than 50% drop in Revenue which translates into more profit for POS.

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-05-31 01:01 | Report Abuse

Read carefully June 2019 Comment on March 2019's impairment: The group recorded a lower loss before tax of RM15.5 million in the current quarter ended 30
June 2019 compared to RM133.7 million in the preceding quarter ended 31 March 2019 mainly
due to higher cost of sales and operating expenses from one off charges of impairment in the
goodwill of Logistics segment of RM39.6 million and provision for onerous contract for the redelivery charges of leased aircraft of RM44.0 million incurred in the preceding quarter.

March 2019 losses mainly come from impairment and one-off charge. Operating profit wasnt that bad. So we are likely going back to the black very soon.

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-05-31 01:42 | Report Abuse

Do you know that POS also has exposure to gold? ArRahnu - "Starting as a gold asset-based micro-financing provider, Pos ArRahnu has successfully transformed into a one-stop gold centre that provides Islamic micro-financing services, buying and selling of physical gold, retailing of gold jewellery and safe-keeping of gold. Pos ArRahnu currently operates a total of 80 outlets located within selected post offices."

Revenue stream comes from ArRahnu related services (such islamic pawn broking, gold safe keeping, buy-back used gold) as
well as selling investment precious metals (gold bar & gold dinar).

Total Gold bought back
2018 239 kg
2019 158 kg

Total Gold Sold
2018 66.79 kg
2019 31.88 kg

Net Gold FY 18 & 19 = 298.33 kg
1kg = 55,000 USD.
Gold has gone up 1300 usd/ounce (march 2019) - 1600usd /ounce march'20 ) = 23% increase

Just based on valuation of the net gold they're holding in 2018/19, their valuation have increased by RM 16.6m against preceding QR. I'm not sure if they'll reflect this in their QR or not.

Posted by nelson9105 > 2020-05-31 11:23 | Report Abuse

https://www.facebook.com/groups/investalks/permalink/10159994322199535/

Posted by ayamSG > 2020-05-31 11:59 | Report Abuse

when the quarter report release?

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-05-31 12:44 | Report Abuse

JPMCB NA FOR VANGUARD TOTAL INTERNATIONAL STOCK INDEX FUND
5,086,190

JPMCB NA FOR VANGUARD EMERGING MARKETS STOCK INDEX FUND
6,417,600

JPMCB NA FOR EMERGING MARKETS SMALL CAPITALISATION EQUITY INDEX
NONLENDABLE FUND
1,275,400

These are holdings of JP Morgan as of 31st Dec 2019.

This explains why there was a huge drop yesterday with 3.6m in queue because they were taking POS out of their MSCI index.

Now i'm more relieved. The drop in POS is due to their portfolio rebalancing. good news for me. It was nothing related with fundamental change, it was not EPF or KWAP's work (Both are top 3 major shareholders).

Someone was picking aggressively at RM 1.10. So hopefully we're bottomed out after Monday!