The next quarter's financials gonna be fantastic. Likely will touch RM30mil per quarter from now on due to consolidation of GW Plastics and the synergies from leveraging GW Plastic's F&B business and Scientex's packaging capacity. F&B operation is much more lucrative than industrial packaging, thus I expect their profit margins to rise as well. Good luck!
Koay, You fat tat already oh. You should also share with us lah by writing more on potential stocks in your blog. Never mind you buy first before you write. If anybody says you trying to promote,with hidden agenda, try selling high to i3 people(does i3 has that power?) or whatever, I am going to hantam him.
Those with F&B exposure and pay good dividends are resilient and likely stand the current volatile markets, so they are also more preferred among investors. Right now my focus is on two counters only, Scientex and Johotin which I will hold through the elections. Not too keen on any other stocks at the moment. Johotin shares seem to be in accumulation mode and director (Lim Hun Swee) keeps buying at current levels. He has been accumulating more than RM3-4mil worth of shares over the past 4-5months around RM1.61-1.82, which partly cement my conviction on this counter.
Yeah Koay, I always believe if the insiders keep on accumulating the shares, there is only one reason he does that. Moreover, Johore Tin with Abel Dairies will have great future. It is already showing in its latest financial reports.
Scientex gonna be in The Busy Weekly. Wondering if anyone read it? Mind to share Lim Peng Jin's plans for the company? I'm in HK unfortunately. Thanks!
RM120mil per annum profit no problem, 54.5sen EPS. Capex RM50mil to expand into lucrative F&B business by acquiring machineries etc to be completed by end 2014. Will expand this segment by 50% and contribute extra RM15-20mil to the overall net profit per year.
Koay, how you calculate extra RM15-20m from the new machine? Currently, GW Plastic contributed around RM15m net profit annually. If the machine able to increase the productivity by 50%, it only able to contribute extra RM7.5m.
RM15mil annually from GW Plastics? Around RM25-30mil I think. GW Plastic 4Q recurring net income about RM7mil per quarter. Annualized it will be RM28mil. Assuming the capacity rise 50%, will be RM14mil. In addition to the synergies involved, profits should be >RM14mil.
Based on the latest quarter report, GW Plastic only contributed around RM100m revenue and Rm3.6m net profit to Scientex for one quarter. Annualized net profit contribution will be around RM15m.
2H always better than 1H historically. FY2012 recurring profit was RM23mil. Profits for 2014 is anyone's guess. Annualized profits based on just one quarter is not so accurate, myself included. I look at trends plus future prospects. GW plastics net profit: 2007:RM5.4mil; 2008:RM8.9mil; 2009:RM15.3mil; 2010:RM21mil; 2011:RM19.6; 2012:RM23mil; 2013:???; 2014:RM25-30mil?
EPS should be around 50 cts this year ... and why you want to compare with CBIP and prkcorp? All 3 companies come from different industries and their market capital are in different categories.
whatever is , earnings r my prerogative . using bank deposit income n income derived from stocks like dividend n capital gain should always equal or higher than the earlier will be the yardstick for my investment apart from others ( potentials n prospects) likely to be counted as well.
Stocks with zero dividends can be thrown out of the window then :P Stocks with little dividends due to the need for capex to ensure future growth will not be considered also? I will look at PER, ROE, future growth prospects, net assets, company's boss ownership, boss' participation, industry competition etc.
Scientex will be earning at least 55c for the following year, translating into PER of less than 10x. You should compare with its peers ie Daibochi, Cenbond, Tomypak etc. CBIP dependent on projects from palm oil producers, restricted to just the SEA region whereas Scientex products are exported to the whole world. What about global demand for its products? What about currency exposure? What about the resilience against global slowdown? Are these taken into consideration?
CHEAPER SHARES WITH UPWARD POTENTIALS AND HIGH DIVIDENDS WILL BE MY CHOICE . FURTHER MORE THEIR TP'S ARE STILL FAR AWAY . THE GAIN IS MUCH HIGHER THAN THE MUCH EXPECTED RISKS MEASURED.
prkcorp also earning 44 cts /share n paid good dividend but its price is in the region of 2.70-2.90 ? rather cheap compared with scientx which also earning around that . But with the higher cost of electricity imminent in future , I do not think the gain in earnings will be substancial enough to justify such a good price at RM 5.00-6.00 ? this is my 2 cts analysis..
Based on TA's report, Scientex earnings in the latest quarter should be more than RM40mil (So good? We'll see). Its new expansion into F&B which command way higher prices than its existing industrial packaging will increase its margins, in addition to USD strength. This kinda company should command PER of at least 12x due to recession proof business. I bet its price will reach more than RM6 by year end. Let's wait for its quarterly results which will be out by month end. Could surprise everyone :P
I'm just looking at the story behind TA's upgrade. Why do they upgrade Scientex's earnings by 10% to RM123mil after contacting the management? Scientex already announced 9MFY13 of RM80mil and last minute TA upgraded forecasts when results were just 3 weeks away. This would mean RM43mil per quarter for Scientex from their initial forecast of RM30mil. So, IMO, I think the company did extremely well this quarter that prompted TA to upgrade. But RM43mil per quarter? That will be a huge increase! I will be very happy if it makes RM35mil.
can u believe that a company with 10 years CAGR of 30+% (from 2003 to 2012), is now pegging at PE of 12? actually i haven done thorough research on this, so i just curious how does one value this share as overprice.. jz wonder only..
lets say if i use SOP valuation, i pegged its manufacturing business at PE of 10 (daibochi has PE of 15), i pegged its property division at PE of 8(which i believe is very conservative), it simply worth up to 5.90. Of course i didnt look deep into it yet, if theres any mistake please feel free to correct me thanks
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
lhoong
337 posts
Posted by lhoong > 2013-02-19 06:32 | Report Abuse
31 July