If annulise the earning of 16.68c will get 66.72c for Pe10 target price $6.67 If annulise the earning of 16.68c will get 66.72c and current price at $2.15 PE is 3.2
In next 2 Q result, PBA will deliver less EPS than current 16.6sen due to PBA is given special free first 10m3 of water to domestic water user and the impact on PBA revenue in the period from 1.7.2024 –31.12.2024 will be about RM11 million or RM 5.5m per quarter
However, these rebate is only less than 10% impact to PBA strong Pretax profit RM 58.3m, after take into account these quarter rebate, EPS still deliver 15sen forward.
Water concession never short of business as water is essential daily, therefore, no business risk such as forex, business competition, oversupply, geography tension etc.
PBA only need to focus on managing cost such as channel it part if it's profit to increase capex for water pipe replacement to reduce water leak, reduce non revenue water rate, built more water treatment plant to increase water supply to meet increasing water demand growth from current 890MLD to 1350 MLD by 2030.
Upcoming Perak - Penang water transfer will further increase water supply to meet Penang water need after 2030 ahead of full completion Penang mega project silicon island in 2032.
Water concession business earning is highly projectable if without take into account increase water consumption both domestic and non domestic sector like
+ variable: tourism arrival, new mall, hotel, factories, housing development etc
- variable such as chemical price for treated water, pipe replacement cost etc
Good if Perak Penang water transfer at high rate in 2030. Current Penang water traffic rate 2rd lowest among all state in Msia, with new additional intake water from perak at high rate on 2030, PBA water traffic rate can review higher in future.
If you complaint penang water tarrif is expansive then you shld looks at PBA which is super damn cheap for you to counter your problem by owning PBA shares
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pang72
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If annulise the earning of 16.68c will get 66.72c for Pe10 target price $6.67