Posted by MonkeySeeMonekyDo > 2020-12-15 11:15 | Report Abuse

This one gonna fly

Posted by terence775 > 2020-12-15 11:46 | Report Abuse

Maintain BUY with higher TP of MYR1.03 from MYR0.77, 30% upside
and c.4% FY22F (Apr) yield. NTPM is transitioning to an earnings upcycle,
underpinned by the lower raw material prices, narrowing Vietnam losses,
and progressive contribution from the newly-added capacity. In addition,
moderation in capex moving forward will free up more cash for the company
to deleverage and dish out higher dividends. Valuation is undemanding with
the stock trading at an unwarranted 45% discount from Bursa Malaysia
Consumer Product Index (KLCSU) FY21F P/E of 24x.

 Poised for an earnings upcycle. We foresee a forthcoming earnings
upcycle for NTPM after the earnings downtrend in FY18-20 that were
dragged down by the Vietnam losses and a sharp surge in pulp prices.
Essentially, margin expansion is sustainable as pulp requirement is stocked
until mid-2021 at a low price level. Besides, it will also be supported by the
favourable product mix and surge in demand for wet wipes in personal care
segment. On top of that, the business rationalisation plan whereby export
business is reallocated to Vietnam plant, has lifted the production scale and
hence narrowed the losses. The resultant spare capacity in Malaysia plants
has been repurposed to produce recycled grade products. Meanwhile, the
prospect of filling up newly expanded capacity (+45% in 2019) is gaining
positive traction with more orders expected to be secured.

 On a cleaner slate. The heavy capex cycle is over for NTPM after a total
of MYR250m of capex invested in FY18-20, management expects to incur
maintenance capex of MYR15-20m pa in FY21 and FY22. This will free up
more cash for the company to degear and declare a higher dividend. We
forecast net gearing to moderate to 0.65x in FY22 from 0.81x as of 1QFY21,
whereas our DPS forecasts in FY21-FY23 imply c.3-4% yield.

 Expecting further earnings recovery. NTPM is scheduled to release its
2QFY21 results on 18 Dec. We expect the strong earnings recovery
momentum seen in 1QFY21 to sustain. Its 2QFY21 net profit is estimated
to be MYR12m-14m (vs 1QFY21: MYR14.6m). This will imply a sharp YoY
turnaround from the 2QFY20 headline losses of MYR1.4m. We made no
changes to FY21 forecast but raised FY22-23 earnings forecasts by 12-
13% to pencil in management’s guidance on margins.

 Our DCF-derived TP rises to MYR1.03 correspondingly after the earnings
revision and a tweak in risk assumptions to better reflect the positive
prospect. TP implies 17x P/E FY22F, at +1.5 SD over the stock’s 5-year
mean, justified by a forecasted 3-year earnings CAGR of 98%.

Restructured to be shariah-compliant again
NTPM was deleted from the latest shariah-compliant securities list after breaching the
stipulated debt/asset ratio. We understand that the debts have been restructured to meet
the requirement. That said, the company will have to wait for the review in Nov 2021 to
return to the list as the review will be based on the figures in its annual report which is
normally released in August.

FX exposure is hedged
USD movement against MYR will not impact NTPM’s earnings significantly as export sales
(40% of total sales) are naturally hedged by the purchase of imported raw material.


 Risks to our recommendation include sharp rise in input costs and laterthan-expected turnaround in Vietnam operation

Posted by terence775 > 2020-12-15 11:52 | Report Abuse

Above copy pasted from the report, adjusted format a bit to make it easier to read.

Posted by dipopolkan > 2020-12-15 14:06 | Report Abuse

RHB report
https://gofile.io/d/lxY1cs

Posted by sengtan > 2020-12-15 14:59 | Report Abuse

thanks Terence & dipopolkan

Posted by hoesong > 2020-12-15 16:46 | Report Abuse

no fuel

Posted by dipopolkan > 2020-12-15 20:48 | Report Abuse

Friday qr

Posted by rururunnn > 2020-12-16 11:04 | Report Abuse

huat ah NTPM

Posted by sengtan > 2020-12-18 15:52 | Report Abuse

indication is that Q2 result is good as they are still using cheap raw materials...FIFO

Posted by sengtan > 2020-12-18 18:34 | Report Abuse

PTL! 13.7 mil net. Yoy 1,113%

Posted by sengtan > 2020-12-18 18:38 | Report Abuse

base on Q1 & Q2 result, cum eps=2.53 i think no problem to achieve eps of 5.0 for 2021. Assuming pe of 20 (historic), fair value = 20 x 0.05 = RM1.0 fair value

Posted by Hiddendragem > 2020-12-19 14:29 | Report Abuse

Prepare to take off

Posted by Dontbullshit > 2020-12-19 14:38 | Report Abuse

TP RM 1.20

Posted by yesyesyes > 2020-12-21 09:16 | Report Abuse

the share price drop attracts me here .. kakaka .. the price move opposite to the earning .. kakakaka .. i'm one of you all now .

Posted by sengtan > 2020-12-21 09:29 | Report Abuse

opportunity to buy on dip...this stock will continue to do well

Posted by dipopolkan > 2020-12-21 11:35 | Report Abuse

retailers with weak hand letting go due to misunderstanding of QR. RHB analyst report 21 Dec
https://gofile.io/d/SpGHHE

Posted by sengtan > 2020-12-21 12:57 | Report Abuse

thanks dipopolkan. ya i am collecting when dip

Posted by yesyesyes > 2020-12-21 14:47 | Report Abuse

i kena trapped at 80.5c .

Posted by sengtan > 2020-12-21 15:07 | Report Abuse

it is ok. look at its fair value. In the medium term it will bounce back and scale higher

Posted by yesyesyes > 2020-12-22 09:37 | Report Abuse

mampui .. stay inside condo now .

Posted by yesyesyes > 2020-12-22 09:44 | Report Abuse

those at level78 don't queue first pls .. let me check in another room at lower floors .

Posted by yesyesyes > 2020-12-22 10:16 | Report Abuse

zzzzz

Posted by terence775 > 2020-12-28 17:45 | Report Abuse

80.5c you called trapped ah.. wa.. I really nothing to say

Posted by yutian > 2020-12-29 10:50 | Report Abuse

what happen? why drop so much today?

Posted by Hiddendragem > 2020-12-29 16:49 | Report Abuse

Flush n pump

Posted by robertwts > 2020-12-30 22:34 | Report Abuse

Put on ur seatbelt and rocket ready take off to 90c

Posted by TANGKAILUN > 2021-01-02 20:00 | Report Abuse

Can anyone sell down further more? Need to pick up more at lower price. TQ guys ^_^

Posted by dipopolkan > 2021-01-06 11:30 | Report Abuse

fantastic rebound!

Posted by VTrade > 2021-01-06 11:31 | Report Abuse

Buy more paper.... yeah

Posted by yesyesyes > 2021-01-07 07:47 | Report Abuse

either the one sold at 70c or the one bought at 83c also need the tissue papers .. the demands are there ..

Posted by sengtan > 2021-01-07 10:21 | Report Abuse

ha ha well said yesyesyes

Posted by sengtan > 2021-01-07 10:22 | Report Abuse

I think you don't belong to the above two categories but instead buy low sell high

Posted by Icon8888 > 2021-01-10 23:30 | Report Abuse

all in time.

Posted by victory015 > 2021-01-11 16:23 | Report Abuse

Ntpm keeps going down. Broke support 0.7 soon

Posted by victory015 > 2021-01-11 16:23 | Report Abuse

All in , lost big

Posted by victory015 > 2021-01-11 17:38 | Report Abuse

Toilet paper company keep falling

Posted by cbkia4896 > 2021-01-11 18:38 | Report Abuse

MCO
Auntie uncle buy tissue
Tissue demand high
Ntpm fly
TP (toilet paper) and TP (target price) also fly high high

Posted by victory015 > 2021-01-11 19:17 | Report Abuse

MCO coming, toilet paper can fly high ?

Posted by VTrade > 2021-01-11 20:06 | Report Abuse

Yes, many will continue buy paper...

Posted by Vnie613 > 2021-01-12 14:09 | Report Abuse

Even cny also i saw many people buying Royal Gold & Compact :)

Posted by Icon8888 > 2021-01-12 14:12 | Report Abuse

MCO not good for NTPM.
Corporate client demand reduce.
Hotel no operate
Restaurant no dine in

All and all Demand will reduce and that the reason why share price can't climb.

Posted by VenFx > 2021-01-12 14:20 | Report Abuse

Icon8888 (the fake)

Your earlier post saying valid source from your kkm insider
No mco now " Has just announced Darurat Call "
How suppose that ?

Posted by momo33 > 2021-01-12 14:21 | Report Abuse

yaa this 8888 is the fake one !

Posted by dipopolkan > 2021-01-12 16:00 | Report Abuse

not an issue, last 2 quarters show that NTPM is heading back to its glory days of 2016

Posted by victory015 > 2021-01-14 10:20 | Report Abuse

the toilet paper is going down, flushed into toilet.

Posted by thesteward > 2021-01-14 11:57 | Report Abuse

V Sui di

Posted by FlyingElephant > 2021-01-16 05:52 | Report Abuse

well run company, but with freight costs and multi year high, the cost of doing business is costly considering tissue is a cheap commodity product full of air

Posted by victory015 > 2021-01-22 21:07 | Report Abuse

ntpm having diarrhea, stock keep falling. need more toilet paper

Posted by dipopolkan > 2021-01-23 00:29 | Report Abuse

need buy pampers and diapers

Posted by ampabella > 2021-01-27 20:26 | Report Abuse

hoot 9 eeeeereeeee