I guess it is in oversold territory. With the ESSB increase in 3x capacity from 700mt to 2700mt, HTVB JV profit should increase. Maybe really need to see coming Q results.
Management mentioned that the current average production is RM 2200 and with the new blast furnace, it potentially save up to 10%. If the 10% turn into profit, this will translate to annual profit of RM 540 million. That is equivalent to 8c to HTVB?
If you refer to HTVB latest annual report, Page 15 on selling of electricity, removing the profit from revenue is the cost of generation, which is RM 25.54 million. Dividing that by the generated electricity, each KWH is RM0.22c. It is so much lower than TNB tariff and with their own generation, they are not required to pay for 17c ICPT and 1.6%KWTBB. That is a huge saving.
From Annual report - "EPR successfully sold a total of 115,113,804 kilowatt-hours (kWh) of electricity to the grid, resulting in revenue totaling RM28.31 million and recorded asegment profit of RM2.77 million."
Therefore their product is very competitive and like the Ceo mentioned, all their production is backed by order. The current sales is 30% local consumption and 70% export. With the HRC, it will be flipped where it will be 70% for local & 30% export. I guess this will help to address the forex translation loss.
As for how much ESSB can contribute to HTVB, i believed everyone will have a different figure and you can do the maths. ESSB has said that they has established a 30% dividend policy that will start by 2025 which is next year. This will improve HTVB's cash flow.
I did post some questions during the agm live session, but it were not read out, and neither was the response emailed to me. So I missed out on some important information. Luckily, the question that the shareholder asked gave a very good insight into the ESSB operation.
Hiap teck is one of the undervalue steel counters with high potential… Its previous a bit disappointed quarterly result plus HLG not so good TP have dragged the share price to go down to 38-39 cents from 44-45 cents 1 month plus ago …. I believe with its competitive edge n better profitability than other steel counters, Hiap teck worth above 50-52 cents….
Dig further into HTVB and ESSB over the weekend. I really puzzled by the RM123.4 FX translation loss, despite they stated as unrealized loss in their Q1 analyst briefing. I can only come to a conclusion either 1. They have so much money in USD that the fluctuation of USD causes the loss. 2. Their hedging went wrong. 3. They accept Turkish Lira as payment for their exports to Turkey, and lira has plunged a lot in the last 6 months. 4. They have ordered a lot of raw material for the 2.7 million MT production, but they have not paid, and somehow the forex is against them now.
Anyway, with not much ESSB information, it is difficult to know the reason for the loss. However, in the same presentation deck, management reveals that ESSB produces 237.5 kMT and the revenue is RM 611.6 million, Meaning that ESSB is selling RM 2,575 per metric tonne. With a 12% gross profit margin, it is quite close to the RM 2200 production cost the CEO informed the AGM. Hence, with new BF, a further 10% saving is expected, and this gives about 22% GPM. Therefore, with the new capacity of 2.7 million MT and considering 20% GPM, the potential gross profit is RM 1.35 billion. Net profit after tax estimate around RM1 billion annually. Net profit to HTVB is RM273 million, and that is equivalent to RM0.15 just from ESSB alone? Is this too good to be true?
The CEO informed that with the HRC mill, the produce will be 70% domestic and 30% export. Hope this will help in reducing the FX translation effect.
The government has allocated more than RM 90 billion for infrastructure development for 5 yrs, and last year only RM 15 billion was spent, and there is RM 75 billion to spent, meaning RM 25 billion each year. Upcoming November will be Anwar's 2nd year as PM and he needs to boost the economy, and building infrastructure is the most effective way to generate GDP. I will definitely monitor the ESSB HRC mill closely, and I think HTVB is worth to watch.
I'm not sure if he is a goreng king but they don't give much dividend because they require the money for ESSB. For last few Q, they been dragged down by ESSB losses but i guess things about to change. All Capex has been set in. ESSB will start giving out 30% of profit as dividend starting 2025 which is next year. This will improve HTVB cash flow and possibly of giving better dividend.
When you see Rr88 coming here, we are too late to buy Hi tech lah. Now or tomorrow I still buy here. I am beginning to love steel or iron here. Tksw Sir is the real taukeh here. Thank you Sir.
tksw, stop calling me sifu as I no sifu. & Young man right. Dun beliv my words. Do read the annual report, quarterly report and analyst presentation deck. The reason I can think off for the continuevpressure of the price might due to the Red sea conflict. With 40% production export To Turkey, it will affect the revenue if it is affected. However, I believe this is short term.
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Mini Bull
797 posts
Posted by Mini Bull > 2024-01-09 14:19 | Report Abuse
seem will break support, huge volume last week until now but price gg