Sep 2021 estimated profit should be around 45 millions, this almost can clear 60% of its short term borrowing. the liquidized cash 200 millions from the selling of 2 ships, after minus the long term borrowing, still have 80 millions. Let see how Maybulk will manage this remaining cash. use it to settle all borrowing? or capital return? I hope it will announced capital return.
the Dec 2021 quarter will be a critical period for Maybulk. Even though the BDI recorded 10 years new high during the beginning of this quarter, the BDI is then continuous dropping from 7 Oct 2021. as long as the average BDI in this quarter remain higher than 2000 Maybulk will still making profit, but if average of BDI is below 3800 then the result will not be as good as in Sep 2021. Hope the coming few months can at least hold at 2700 - 3000....
One of the major cause of BDI dropping is the power shortage in China. this actually is a cycle, this high demand in power causing high demand in LPG & coal, and high demand in LPG & coal causing shipping rate increase, high shipping rate increase the LPG & coal cost in China causing the electricity supplier in China lost money for every single power they generated...... Now just wait China to settle this issue, mostly China will increase the charge of electricity, especially for industry. Since this will affect many others sector, so it will take time to come out a proper planning. So the time to settle this issue is unpredictable ......
SEKONIC close at its limit high, and the TOB price of 3400 yen by the TCS Alliance has been adjusted.
After the closing of the transaction on the 12th of the previous weekend, TCS Alliance (Chuo-ku, Tokyo), a wholly owned subsidiary of TCS Holdings, which is the second largest shareholder of the affiliated company, announced that it will carry out a takeover bid with the aim of acquiring all the shares of the company. The stock is close to the TOB price of 3400 yen.
TCS Holdings currently owns 21.91% of SEKONIC shares, both directly and indirectly, but aims to strengthen the governance of the TCS Group and build a seamless collaboration system with SEKONIC by making it private."
So what if we faithful holders have paper losses, right? They're temporary because we know what the co. is worth! Sekonic dropped to 720 yen in Mar 2020 & if I panicked, I would hv lost 40% of my precious capital! Now, I can't lose $$$ even if you pay me to lose! LOL!!!
The Baltic Exchange Dry Index rose 1% to 2,454 on Thursday, after five consecutive sessions of losses, as the capesize index, which tracks iron ore and coal cargos of 150,000-tonnes, surged 6.4% to 3,260. Meanwhile, the panamax index which tracks cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes of coal and grains, fell 5.6% to a seven-month trough of 2,336. Among smaller vessel segments, the supramax index lost 12 points to its lowest level in six months at 2,248. source: Baltic Exchange
19-11-2021 The Baltic Exchange Dry Index rose 4% to 2,552 on Friday, extending gains to a second straight session, as a rebound in iron ore prices lifted the capesize vessel segment. The capesize index, which tracks iron ore and coal cargos of 150,000-tonnes, jumped 10.7% to 3,610. Meanwhile, the panamax index which tracks cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes of coal and grains, fell 2.3% to a seven-month trough at 2,282. Among smaller vessel segments, the supramax index shed 11 points, or 0.5%, to its lowest level in six months at 2,237. The Baltic Dry Index lost 9.1% in the third week of November, its fifth weekly decline in six. source: Baltic Exchange
"Excluding exceptional items, the Group recorded a profit before tax of RM22.729 million in Q3 FY2021, an increase of 22% compared to a profit before tax of RM18.646 million in Q2 FY2021."
The Baltic Exchange Dry Index rose 3.6% to 2,645 on Monday, its highest since November 15th and extending gains to a third straight session, supported by the larger capesize and panamax vessel segments. The capesize index, which tracks iron ore and coal cargos of 150,000-tonnes, jumped 7.6% to its highest in three weeks at 3,884, amid rising iron ore prices; and the panamax index which tracks cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes of coal and grains, increased 0.4% to 2,291, snapping an eight-session long losing streak. Among smaller vessel segments, the supramax index shed 2 points to a six-month trough at 2,235. source: Baltic Exchange
The increase in both revenue and gross profit are below my expectation.
Based on the average BDI on Jun 2021 & Sep 2021, i though should be 30% increased in revenue and 50% increased in gross profit compared to previous quarter, but end up revenue only 10% increased, and gross profit only less than 20% increase. not satisfied but at least have improvement. this maybe causing by selling the 2 ship reduce the earning capability, or my average BDI should cut off half month earlier as the last half month high BDI will not contribute to the respective quarter.
The significant increase in the net profit contributed by the earning of disposing 2 ships, which bring in 91 million! i thing these 2 ships still have installment on them thus after selling the ships the borrowing also drop significantly, long + short borrowing now is RM67,486,000, compare to last quarter RM188,022,000. Finally Maybulk cash is higher than its borrowing afer so many years, with more than 100 million cash on hand, i hope Maybulk can announce capital return.
praise to the Maybulk management to make decision to sell the ship when BDI upward. based on current BDI downward, i have to said this is a brilliant and forecasting decision. This is not an easy decision to make to sell the earning machine when market going upward.
sold ship to improve cash flow. This is defensive strategy. If BDI up, not benefit Maybulk ..If BDI down, Maybulk collapse..except with cash from ships sold.
sold ship at uptrend and buy back during downtrend is a good strategy. this will generate more cash during the ship trading as the ship price during uptrend and downtrend are significant difference. this is how Maybulk did during last super high BDI 10+ years back.
I believe t the mgt is now focusing on survival of the co and taking defensive strategy by selling the ships. but this action is not favourable to shareholders because by doing so, the shareholders neither get any dividends nor growth prospect because the tools to generate profit is getting lesser and lesser.
Stable reliable co should have a stable dividend reward Growth co should have growth prospect
China planners were dancing a very dangerous dance when they allowed their people to go thru electricity rationing last month. It's not that there's no coal, it's just that they have other motives behind it. Now they have to roll back on their crackdown on coal as prices prove to high when they tried to play the market. Back to increasing coal supplies to 12 mil T/day. with imports from Russia & Indonesia after banning Oz.
Guess what this will do to the BDI rates?
The secular trend is that Global Trade will be much higher 1 year from today. Even with sporadic spikes of Wave 4, the world has learned to somehow do global trade in a more normalised way with Covid around.
The Baltic Exchange Dry Index rose 2.7% to 2,715 on Tuesday, its highest since November 15th and extending gains to a fourth straight session, supported by gains across all vessel segments. The capesize index, which tracks iron ore and coal cargos of 150,000-tonnes, increased 4.4% to its highest in over three weeks at 4,055, helped by rising iron ore prices; and the panamax index which tracks cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes of coal and grains, went up 1.8% to 2,333. Among smaller vessel segments, the supramax index added 8 points to 2,243, snapping a four-session losing streak. source: Baltic Exchange
Index is index, maybulk price is controlled. I have lost the most on this share investment. No point stick to it, sorry for being negative on this counter. Profitable income and prize sucks.
With est. 80M operational net profit, 2021 is amongst Maybulk's best performing year...
Q1 (15M) + Q2 (18M) + Q3 (22M) + Q4 (est. 23-25M) Total = ~80M (Operational Net Profit)
We are not buying junk company.. With great earnings and rich cash in hands, this is indeed a turnaround year for Maybulk.. if we look at BDI it's still at a relatively high level, although it has been corrected but turning its direction upwards these few days.. and some experts predict it will continue to stay high for years..
If there's "someone" that controls the price, could this be a chance for us to add perhaps bit by bit? Think about it..
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Dangel
422 posts
Posted by Dangel > 2021-11-16 10:58 | Report Abuse
0.615 is a good entry point!