Posted by dumbMoney > 2023-09-14 14:53 | Report Abuse

@FastMoney666 The announcement is targeted at COL, but it being also a shareholder, other shareholders become collateral damage from the share price.

Posted by FastMoney666 > 2023-09-14 17:41 | Report Abuse

@dumbMoney - agreed. I wish TTB to be fairer and not to get personal. It's small guys that keep selling while there are some institutional investors providing liquidity to prevent share price dropped irrationally. TTB argues that it's small holders that will provide stability and narrowing the share price. I don't quite agree to that. There are plenty of studies show that any stock market dominated by retail investors such as early days in the USA or China stock market, the price volatility are way much higher. When it goes up it will go up to euphoria stage and when it goes down, a dollar found on the street is being delusional justified as 0 value. ^--^

Posted by FastMoney666 > 2023-09-14 17:49 | Report Abuse

TTB argued that the period where icap enjoyed a huge premiums in year 2007....at that point of time, all investors sure feel shiok due to bull market....but just like Warren Buffet said bull market was like sex, it feel the best just before it end. ^--^

Posted by FastMoney666 > 2023-09-14 17:51 | Report Abuse

Go....yeah... baby go ..... kimochi

Posted by FastMoney666 > 2023-09-14 17:57 | Report Abuse

For anyone who follow YTL Corp, when the share price crashing down to 50 sen.....it was EPF that continued to sell down during the whole period the Covid 19....the price stopped declining when they stopped selling and of course with the financial turnaround recently, it just rocketed. A sharp eye like TTB surely will have something to learn. If they force COL to pare down stakes to less than 20% from current 23%, just a 3% pare down will be roughly 4,200 million shares....it will drive it down if they are forced to sell in a short time due to injunction or court orders(in case they won la)

Posted by FastMoney666 > 2023-09-14 17:59 | Report Abuse

When COL start selling, other small guys will rush out from the door even faster and will create a death downward spiral.

Hope TTB will not get piss when reading these comments or drag me to court.

Posted by FastMoney666 > 2023-09-14 18:41 | Report Abuse

Correction ha...4.2 million shares not 4,200 millions(ooops.....) Sorry

Posted by speakup > 2023-09-14 21:35 | Report Abuse

thanks for pushing up icap today for me to sell. LOL!

Posted by Patient Investor > 2023-09-15 09:18 | Report Abuse

@FastMoney Volatility is a value investor's best friend :)

Posted by speakup > 2023-09-15 13:02 | Report Abuse

Now wait for COL to dump their excess of 20% shares

Posted by FastMoney666 > 2023-09-15 13:35 | Report Abuse

Current rising tide will lift all boats. ICAP got a few big holding such as Padini, Seremban Engineering, CapitalA, Hibiscus, Kelington, Suria Capital are on the rising trend....when these names hit all time high, estimated NAV will be around RM 4.20. At 20% discount will translate into Share price of RM 3.40, So iCapital trading buy of RM 3.50 is not a laughable target. Their second target of RM 5 is a bit far fetch. ^__^

Posted by FastMoney666 > 2023-09-15 20:02 | Report Abuse

14-Sep-2023. COL bought 80,100. Total shares transacted for the day: 87,300. 92% of the transactions. Good signal, they are not afraid of TTB latest action. They think TTB is only barking not biting. ^__^

Posted by FastMoney666 > 2023-09-15 20:29 | Report Abuse

Just to make things clear ya.. I am not related to any of COL or iCapital people but just a normal Ah Fok on the street. Just interpreting the information from public available information. Just take all the comments with a grain of salts.

Posted by FastMoney666 > 2023-09-15 20:33 | Report Abuse

Just do it as a past time activity. Some people do something trying to show their nobleness or kindness to others...I have neither. @^@

Posted by Patient Investor > 2023-09-15 23:10 | Report Abuse

COL must be deeply in love with i-capital. They blast the fund manager, yet keep buying.

Posted by speakup > 2023-09-16 12:59 | Report Abuse

At one point in time I tot no chance sell above 2.70 already, tiba tiba someone push up for me to sell

Posted by FastMoney666 > 2023-09-24 20:51 | Report Abuse

Rupa rupa many want to exit...LOL :)

Posted by speakup > 2023-09-25 07:45 | Report Abuse

mestilah exit cos court want COL who now hold 24% to reduce to maximum 20% je

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-09-25 08:21 | Report Abuse

>>>

Posted by dumbMoney > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

My finance professor's Nobel Prize winning M&M Dividend Irrelevance Theorem in its simplest terms, states that in a world with no taxes, transaction costs, or asymmetric information, the dividend policy of a company should not affect its value. According to this theory, investors can create their own synthetic dividends by selling shares if the company doesn't pay dividends or using dividends received to buy more shares if the company does pay dividends. Its value is mainly in signaling the financial health of the business, like with an increase or a cut.

>>>


When you invest $1 today, you are interested in how many $ you will receive in the future from the investment.

This return maybe through dividends or share appreciation. Warren Buffett shared that for every $1 retained by the company, its share price should similarly reflect at least an increment of $1.

Using this criteria of the relationship between retained earnings and share price you have the following scenarios:

1. $1 retained, share price increased by $1.
2. $1 retained, share price increased by >$1, increasing the value of the company.
3. $1 retained, share price decreased, and value of company declined.

Warren Buffett loves to focus on ROE and not just the profit. By retaining earnings, for example in bank deposits, yearly profits can increase. He is more interested in companies able to deliver high returns on equity, preferably those with ROE > 15% consistently. There are such companies in every market, they usually trade at very high price. Therefore, patience is a virtue in long term investing.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-09-25 12:47 | Report Abuse

Interestingly, there are also a few companies that distribute all or almost all of its earnings every year and yet, they were able to grow their earnings yearly and correpondinly, their increasing value are reflected in their market price. They require little or no new capital to grow their earnings. Just find these, buy them at fair prices and see your investment grows over time.

Posted by dumbMoney > 2023-09-26 02:49 | Report Abuse

@Integrity These are the possible scenarios for the $1 of profit retained. 1. If the $1 can be reinvested at the cost of capital of the firm, the share price increases by $1. If the new investment can earn more than the cost of capital, then the share price increases by more than the $1 retained. If the new investment earns less than the cost of capital, e.g. parked as cash, then the share price will increase by less than $1. WB's reason for not paying dividends is that Berkshire can invest the $1 retained better than the same $1 paid out to shareholders as dividends, so shareholders' wealth is better off without the dividend, but shareholder can create his own synthetic dividend by selling part of his share, which has then increased in price by more than the $1 retained.

Posted by dumbMoney > 2023-09-26 04:51 | Report Abuse

To further explain the relationship between retained earnings and share price, take the example of a company that is selling at a PER of 10, so $1 of earnings is valued at $10, which for simplicity, is also its NAV. So if an extra $1 in retained earnings can generate $0.10 in new earnings, which will then also increase the share price by $1, at the same PER of 10, a 1:1 change. But if the new $1 in retained earnings can now generate $0.15 in extra earnings, this will produce a share price increase of $1.50 at the same PER of 10, in spite of the NAV increasing by only $1. If the new $1 in retained earnings is now parked in cash, which earns only $0.05, the share price increase is now only $0.50, less than the NAV increase. Now you know why share price discount develops even though NAV goes up.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-09-26 22:06 | Report Abuse

>>>
To further explain the relationship between retained earnings and share price, take the example of a company that is selling at a PER of 10, so $1 of earnings is valued at $10, which for simplicity, is also its NAV. So if an extra $1 in retained earnings can generate $0.10 in new earnings, which will then also increase the share price by $1, at the same PER of 10, a 1:1 change. But if the new $1 in retained earnings can now generate $0.15 in extra earnings, this will produce a share price increase of $1.50 at the same PER of 10, in spite of the NAV increasing by only $1. If the new $1 in retained earnings is now parked in cash, which earns only $0.05, the share price increase is now only $0.50, less than the NAV increase. Now you know why share price discount develops even though NAV goes up.

<<<<

EPS
Retained Earnings (RE)
Returns on Equity (ROE)
Returns on Retained Earnings (RORE)
Net tangible asset (NTA)

Assuming all earnings are retained. No dividends given.

Assuming scenario where ROE varies:

1. ROE 5%
NTA or Equity RM 10
EPS or RE 50 sen
After 1 year NTA 10.50


2. ROE 10%
NTA at beginning of year RM 10
EPS and RE RM 1.00
NTA at end of year RM 11.00

3. ROE 15%
NTA at beginning of year RM 10
EPS and RE RM1.50
After 1 year NTA 11.50


Assuming you are looking for a return on your investment equal to the risk free rate of 5%,
- in scenario 1, you will pay 1x the initial NTA. That is the price = RM 10 PE =10x
- in scenario 2, you will pay 2x the initial NTA. That is the price = RM 20 PE = 20x
- in scenario 3, you will pay 3x the initial NTA. That is the price = RM 30. PE = 30x

On the other hand, if you aim for 10% return on your investment:
- in scenario 1, you will pay a fraction of the initial NTA. The price maybe 50% of the NTA = RM 5. PE = 5x
- in scenario 2, you will pay 1x the initial NTA. The price = RM 10 PE = 10x
- in scenatio 3, you will pay 1.5x the initial NTA. The price = RM 15. PE = 15x

This thinking explains why some companies are trading at a fraction of or discount to its NTA and why some are trading at a multiple or premium to their NTA.

This is a better way to understand valuation of stock.

Of course, having now determined the price by the above reasoning, we can derive the PEs accordingly as above.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-09-26 22:13 | Report Abuse

What returns should we aim for in our long term investing? Probably 2x the risk free interest rate. Perhaps, if possible, aim for 15%.

Where a lot of money is in bank deposits earning very low returns, the return on the NAV is not going to be exciting. Moreov.er, the interest earned are also eroded by tax and the management fees. This would explain why a company is trading at a discount to the NAV. In iCap, the discount had been very steep, almost 40%+ to its NAV at times.

Posted by stockraider > 2023-09-27 10:55 | Report Abuse

If u cannot get compounded return of 8% pa over 5 to 10 yrs....than this investment is under performing loh!

Posted by FastMoney666 > 2023-09-29 09:53 | Report Abuse

Malu loh if can't even beat EPF. We all used to ridicule and hantam them kau kau😂😂

Posted by FastMoney666 > 2023-09-29 09:58 | Report Abuse

But ICAP still performing better than Public Mutual. Still need to feed agents and fund managers with performance can't even beat FD😪

Posted by FastMoney666 > 2023-09-29 14:13 | Report Abuse

iCapital.biz finally announced the Innovative Dividend Policy 🤣🤣
https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=3388655

Posted by speakup > 2023-09-29 14:22 | Report Abuse

Expected dividend rate 4% je
Apa ni? Some REITs already giving 6% dividend!

Posted by FastMoney666 > 2023-09-29 14:25 | Report Abuse

Based rate 1% of Simple 4 weeks of NAV + 8% x Discount Between NAV and Share Price.

If simple average of 4 weeks NAV = 3.6, Share Price = 2.72
Dividend = 1% * 3.6 + 8% * (3.6-2.72) = 0.1064.
Dividend Yield = 0.1064/2.72 = 3.91%

Not bad lah if it is tax free on the dividend. 🤣🤣

Posted by FastMoney666 > 2023-09-29 14:28 | Report Abuse

REITS may not give capital growth but if TTB is really good in growing NAV with regular dividend...it's not a bad idea idea after all. Need to give him a bit of credits

Posted by FastMoney666 > 2023-09-29 14:49 | Report Abuse

I ran a very simply scenario
NAV growth = 6% per annum
Base NAV 3.6
Share price 2.72
Discount between NAV and Share Price 20% discount
Year/NAV/Share Price/Dividend
Year 1 3.81/3.05/.099
Year 2 4.04/3.23/.105
Year 3 4.29/3.43/0.111
Year 4 4.545/3.64/0.118
Year 5 4.813.854/0.125
Year 6 5.10/4.085/0.133
Year 7 5.413/4.33/0.141
Year 8 5.74/4.59/0.149
Year 9 6.08/4.86/0.158
Year 10 6.44/5.16/0.167

Total dividend received over 10 year $ 1.307 = 48% at 2.72 price entry
Capital gain = (5.16-2.72)/2.72 = 90%
Total Return = 138%
CAGR = 9%

Quite fair la

Posted by FastMoney666 > 2023-09-29 15:14 | Report Abuse

For some who are interested in learning about closed end funds you may visit this website
https://www.cefa.com/
You can a much more wider statistic of closed end funds performance ( discount/premium).....Average equity discount on much more efficient market is about 9.6%, 20% is quite rare but there are cases of as much as 40%.

Posted by FastMoney666 > 2023-09-29 15:18 | Report Abuse

iCap historical NAV growth is about 8% using IPO as a base.
For the purpose of that illustration I shaved off 2% and use 20% discount as the base case for the sake of margin of safety. There will be some upside if we use 10% discount and 8% NAV CAGR....you can work it out yourself on CAGR. 😂😂

Posted by dumbMoney > 2023-09-29 15:29 | Report Abuse

This dividend formula is more reactive rather than proactive in solving the price discount, because it depends on how wide is the discount and then try to reduce it. The expected yield of 4% implies an average share price discount of 25% as per the calculations shown here, not much help! https://1drv.ms/b/s!AgLvGZpm89YsvQntvGsVIZnlQeNF?e=V1kgTs

Posted by dumbMoney > 2023-09-29 15:35 | Report Abuse

The higher the discount, the higher the yield, there is no incentive for investors to narrow the discount. If I want a 6% yield on my shares, to match the REITs and EPF, the discount needs to be around 35%.

Posted by FastMoney666 > 2023-09-29 16:01 | Report Abuse

Key actually is still NAV growth... Most of discounts in CEF either is totally underperforming NAV(not growing or declining) or sectors totally out of favor in the US markets. It's a function of performance and crowd psychology.

My expectation is always whether they need to grow NAV at least match EPF 6%... hold on it long enough... Someday it may get liquidated to get back all the discount. Many years ago there was one CEF in bursa get liquidated after listed for about 10 years.

While waiting, can just reinvest the dividend into EPF as a barbell strategy.

My dua sen of opinion.

Posted by FastMoney666 > 2023-09-29 16:30 | Report Abuse

Looking at the price actions, people more motivated to sell, widen the discounts to get higher yield...<__> last traded price 2.65. also okay for me Cox of much lower entry price.😉

Posted by speakup > 2023-09-29 16:34 | Report Abuse

No lah they sell today to buy mooncake

Posted by FastMoney666 > 2023-09-29 16:50 | Report Abuse

Okay2...let me also sell some to buy musang king moon cake...😎😋

Posted by Patient Investor > 2023-09-29 17:21 | Report Abuse

@fastmoney666 sell more lah

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2023-09-29 17:36 | Report Abuse

>>>
Posted by FastMoney666 > 3 hours ago | Report Abuse

iCapital.biz finally announced the Innovative Dividend Policy 🤣🤣
https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=3388655
>>>

This adds another layer of complicity to managing the fund.
I think it is solely to reduce the share price discount to the NAV; may not work out as planned.

Better for the fund to focus on delivering high return on NAV (high ROE). Those wishing to have some income can always choose to sell some of the shares (abeit at a discount).

Posted by FastMoney666 > 2023-09-29 18:07 | Report Abuse

No problem la --- returning 10 sen per share to share holder, or about 14 million/year, chicken feet la. Based on 31/5/2023, they still have about 140 million, they can afford to pay it out over 10 years....after payout the dividend, NAV will reduce also, so is ex-dividend share price will drop, but if it can climb back, it's a cheating way of narrowing discount.

When they know they need to pay out dividend, then they probably will do a bit more active investing.

Posted by FastMoney666 > 2023-09-29 18:12 | Report Abuse

If the ex-dividend price does not move up or worse going down, the NAV discounts will remain in percentage wise....

Posted by FastMoney666 > 2023-09-29 18:18 | Report Abuse

One positive light I can see, they give you options - if you have strong conviction, buy more iCap when yield becomes attractive 6-8%, or if you think there are better profitable investment ideas some where - take that dividend money and buy other profitable shares lo.

Posted by FastMoney666 > 2023-09-29 18:21 | Report Abuse

There are tonnes of examples of this kind of scenarios in a bear market.....one of the examples is Chinese banking stocks with dividend yield > 8% in Hong Kong market. Despite of generous or progressive payout rate, when sentiments sours, there is nothing you can do about it. It's either get out or just stock checking stock price for a new years.

Posted by FastMoney666 > 2023-09-29 18:21 | Report Abuse

*stop checking

Posted by FastMoney666 > 2023-09-29 18:29 | Report Abuse

Let comment on share buy back of which I think TTB will never agree to it. It's a simple math. Let's say TTB take 140 million cash and buy back at 2.64 at today's closing price, it will reduce outstanding shares about 53 million shares from 140 million to 87 million shares. If COL didn't sell a single of their holding of 32 million shares, they ownership will be in percentage wise increase from 23% to 37%.......if they buy a bit more will cross 51%.....then TTB will be checkmate!

Posted by dumbMoney > 2023-09-30 01:24 | Report Abuse

It is a company's performance that determines share price and price premium or discount, not dividend policy. The BOD should read up on Modigliani & Miller's theorem on capital structure of the firm to get a better understanding of corporate finance. It is simple enough even for non MBA's to understand. Share price will react to results announcements, but when share price goes ex dividend, it usually adjust downwards by the amount of the dividend, so there is no net gain overall. This is why when they report share price change ex-dividend, it is net of the dividend amount. Basing dividend policy on share price discount rather than profitability is indeed unique and innovative, but does it work? You have the perverse result that when a company makes plenty of profit and share price is at a premium, shareholders are rewarded with the minimum dividend of 1%, but if it is losing money and share price is at a big discount, shareholders get a bumper dividend.

Posted by dumbMoney > 2023-09-30 01:34 | Report Abuse

Paying a big dividend will not save the share price or discount due to bad results or corporate governance, it is that simple.