Posted by lamken > 2012-02-08 20:29 | Report Abuse

Bonescythe: if you are saying TP 1.50 is maxinum, can you explain to everyone how you came to that conclusion. keeping in mind Q1FY12 announced today is 162m for.

Posted by lamken > 2012-02-08 21:00 | Report Abuse

JCY Valuation-

Q1FY12 = 162m profit
Capex = 150m

Q2FY12 = 162m + 40% increase production (New machines from capex) = 226.8m
Q3FY12 = 162m + 40% increase production (New machines from capex) = 226.8m
Q4FY12 = 162m + 40% increase production (New machines from capex) = 226.8m

- 150m (capex)

FY12 Profit = 692.4m

692.4m /2 billion shares.
EPS =.35 sen

PE X 10
Fair Price= RM 3.5

PE x 15
Fair Price= RM 5.1

JCY IPO price was RM 1.6 using PE x 15 based on FY2009 profit of 203m.


--------

TP RM 1.50?? you must be kidding. TP 1.50 mean JCY will only be making 15m each quarter for the next 3 quarters. On the back of a severe HDD shortage which will go beyound 2012 as also confirmed by Seagate CEO, higher average selling prices and secure sales volume for next 2 years. No way.

How high do I want to see JYC go? anywhere between RM 3.5 and RM 5.00. Its only matter of time.

Posted by lamken > 2012-02-08 21:28 | Report Abuse

from the Quarterly Report:

VARIANCE FROM PROFIT GUIDANCE
The Thailand floods in October 2011 have significantly changed the landscape of the HDD industry supply chain. Many HDD component suppliers are still struggling to resume their production outputs to meet the demand for the HDD components. Based on the HDD industry reports by independent industry consultants and vendors, it appears that the worldwide shortages in HDD will continue in year 2012.

However HDD vendors like Western Digital Corporation and Seagate Technology PLC have resumed their production faster than industry expectations.
Increases in the Average Selling Price (â??ASP") of HDD components resulting from the Thailand floods should continue to benefit JCY in the next 12 months. With JCYâ??s multi-product strategy and effective management of product mix will enable us to focus our production on the higher demand and higher yield components. Our emphasis on productivity improvement will continue to contribute to improved profitability. We expect to be able to meet the increased demand for HDD components. JCYâ??s Thailand
factories were not affected by the October 2011 floods. In addition, with both our new plants in China (Suzhou and Foshan) ready soon for our planned expansion, we expect to be able to increase our output in the near future. On 4 January 2012, the Group issued a Profit Guidance that the Group was likely to record an increase in
net profit for the financial quarter ended 31 December 2011 of approximately 1,900% compared with the corresponding period in the previous financial year (period ended 31 December 2010, Net profit: RM7.5million) or 460% compared with the immediate preceding quarter (period ended 30 September 2011, Net profit: RM26.4million).
The net profit for the financial quarter ended 31 December 2011 is reported as RM162.5 million, which is 8.3% more favorable than RM150 million implied in the Profit Guidance.

Posted by lamken > 2012-02-08 21:33 | Report Abuse

note the mention about the 2 china factory expansions and increasing output in the near future. This supports what I said about JCY making 162m Q1FY12 without increasing output yet, which means for sure they will be making more then 162m in next few quarters.

Posted by tasoke > 2012-02-08 21:54 | Report Abuse

new info prompt action put on d post for more ppl beter choice. JCY gogogo.....

Posted by Fat Cat Tim Buddy > 2012-02-08 21:56 | Report Abuse

did 0sk get the quarter report before 4 pm and they purposely dump cheaply to scare people to dump it too, then they collect it back cheaply?

Posted by Rose Eu > 2012-02-08 22:16 | Report Abuse

Very cunning indeed, many conned into dumping.

Posted by bomblikeme > 2012-02-08 22:27 | Report Abuse

Sorry I'm a newbie, will OSK be succeptible to any of SC compliance issues, which includes causing UMA/ market irregularities? The price dropped at 4.20-4.33pm that's crazy.

Posted by patrickngoa > 2012-02-08 22:34 | Report Abuse

lamken, good job with those figures, u must be an investment banker. jcy looks v gd indeed...like a dumped gold to be picked, cheers

Posted by bonescythe > 2012-02-08 22:44 | Report Abuse

To Lamken,

Well, if you had been following my TP, then great job. At least you know where to sell, where to buy.
As for JCY, let's take a breather first before deciding on where it will be stopping on the next spot.

Cheers.

*P/S: You got high appetite to see JCY fly like kite to see RM3.50 to RM5.00. Interesting price. Well, let's see in the coming days.

Posted by bonescythe > 2012-02-08 22:46 | Report Abuse

Most important in the whole game of trading. Don't go against shark, or it will be bad. :(

We will let them decide first before initiating another new level

Posted by lamken > 2012-02-08 23:00 | Report Abuse

OSK probably holding about 70m mother shares (they have to hedge against son -1 for 1 to pay for son on expiry). there are about 500m shares on the open market with the reminder in the hands of the JCY big man (75%)

OSK must be deciding now what they want to do with the the mother shares they are holding since the expiry date getting close. they have the following options:

A) sell off the mother share and pay for the son on expiry (depending on what price they bougth the mother share at- they could be making a small profit, break even or make a loss. If they bought mother share when it was below .80 sen then they can make a profit. If they collected mother share above .90 sen, they will lose money. The problem with doing this is that there is potential for them to lose even more money, ie they sell all the mother share under RM 2.00 and in 3 months the mother goes to RM 4.00- they lost the opportunity to make another 100% profit.

B) Use the mother share to spook the market like today and collect back cheaper and use the profits to pay for some of the son on expiry.

C) Use Cash to pay for all the son and keep all mother share and collect even more given todays profit announcement and the psositive outlook for the company for next 2 years.

My guess is that they will be doing a combination of all the above and we will see more price volatility for next week or 2 but like I said, do not panic because other big players know this and they are standing by waiting to collect when they throw. the price may fall very quickly when they do this but it will also always go back up very quickly as well. Hence son holders do not need to worry also.

Posted by Mohamad Sukri > 2012-02-08 23:20 | Report Abuse

lamken : i like it..hehe

Posted by Fat Cat Tim Buddy > 2012-02-08 23:33 | Report Abuse

if the stock price eventually up to RM 5, jcy market capitalization will surpass many big name.

Posted by lamken > 2012-02-09 04:46 | Report Abuse

Fat cat: and rightly it should, jcy is the second biggest world hdd component maker with world market share of approx 40%. Not many people understand the size and scale of the company and how this has changed the whole hdd landscape to their advantage for the long term as per their quarterly report.

Posted by lamken > 2012-02-09 04:53 | Report Abuse

Bonescythe: there are more then one big shark out there. All other big sharks can smell the opportunity and this share will reach rm 4 in medium term because that's it's true value not just because I want it to reach rm 4.

Posted by Rosma mk > 2012-02-09 08:35 | Report Abuse

buy on weakness..yest dip as low as 1.31!

Posted by lamken > 2012-02-09 08:46 | Report Abuse

Rosma mk: correct. if you see sudden price dip again..wack as much as you can before other big boys take it all. it will go back up very quickly so you have to be very quick.

Posted by Rosma mk > 2012-02-09 09:01 | Report Abuse

lamken;m monitoring to buy; previous support at 1.10.. now cld it be 1.30. just guessing..

Posted by njue76 > 2012-02-09 09:01 | Report Abuse

CIMB UP TP JCY TO 2.22

Posted by Fat Cat Tim Buddy > 2012-02-09 09:23 | Report Abuse

is it osk still dumping?

Posted by atom7nine > 2012-02-09 09:36 | Report Abuse

I am lining up my buying 1.36 and 1.35.

Posted by petracot > 2012-02-09 09:39 | Report Abuse

JCY's game is not over yet. The stock may take a breather and consolidate for a while, as saying goes "buy on rumours, sell on news". However, in the case of JCY, it was not rumours but profit guidance. Hence, there is an even chance for the stock to continue moving after a few days of rest.

Posted by atom7nine > 2012-02-09 09:40 | Report Abuse

Lucky strike, got at 1.36

Posted by lamken > 2012-02-09 09:43 | Report Abuse

Fat cat: yes they are. There is no other reason for this share to be going down right now.

Posted by atom7nine > 2012-02-09 09:44 | Report Abuse

Very lucky, strike at 1.35. All done.

Posted by kclee > 2012-02-09 09:52 | Report Abuse

what i've predict is so far all good now... successful TP at 1.50. and wait for the next wave. they should be the next wave if it obey the fibonacci of 50%. if not... sayonara to JCY. but IMO, there should be another wave. Stay tune

Posted by bjgdila123 > 2012-02-09 10:10 | Report Abuse

cepat beli nanti miss ini kapal.....siapa rugi

Posted by kclee > 2012-02-09 10:50 | Report Abuse

bjgdila123, don't mislead ppl with no base and fact please.

Posted by snyang > 2012-02-09 13:07 | Report Abuse

I like to read all comments written , especially by the specialists like lamken....
Lamken, Thanks for your valuable comments ! We have to 'Huat' together !

Posted by Shanting > 2012-02-09 13:20 | Report Abuse

i agree with snyang. Lamken, you are the man

Posted by lamken > 2012-02-09 13:21 | Report Abuse

Once OSK throw all their mother share, the price will rocket to the moon. collect more now because still very very cheap, once OSK use up all their mother share, you will not get a chance to buy at this low price again.

On my calculation they have throw about 30m mother shares yesterday and this morning combined and will throw more this afternoon. They probaly still holding about 40m. Use this opportunity to wack more. You will not regret.

Posted by Shanting > 2012-02-09 13:23 | Report Abuse

lamken, thanks for your inputs

Posted by soapdepartment > 2012-02-09 13:57 | Report Abuse

http://my.entertainment.yahoo.com/news/cimb-research-ups-jcy-tp-rm2-22-keeps-004054746.html
Target price RM2.22 from cimb bank

Posted by Shanting > 2012-02-09 14:06 | Report Abuse

lamken, do you think CIMB TP of RM2.22 is fair is shorter term?

Posted by lamken > 2012-02-09 14:18 | Report Abuse

CIMB are still being very conservative using PE x 6 for short term. A reasonable PE should be x 10. JCY was listed with PE x 15. In medium term (3-6 months) JCY will reach RM 4. trust me.

Posted by lamken > 2012-02-09 14:19 | Report Abuse

When I say medium TP RM 4, Iam being very conservative and expect it to go over RM 4.

Posted by bonescythe > 2012-02-09 14:23 | Report Abuse

Mr Lamken.. RM4.. Time frame? Probably I also need to get eye opener from u when u label JCY RM4.00.. Need to get your insight first.. :)

Posted by Adam Ryan > 2012-02-09 14:29 | Report Abuse

Lamken its over value if above 2...if u said 2 ...maybe i can accept....

Posted by lamken > 2012-02-09 14:45 | Report Abuse

Bonecythe: not sure what you are asking? Can you rephrase so I can understand better?

Posted by lamken > 2012-02-09 14:49 | Report Abuse

Adam Ryan; I have already provided my valuation here for everyone to see. If you think over 2 is overvalue please provide valuation with explanation so people can understand.

Posted by soapdepartment > 2012-02-09 15:03 | Report Abuse

agree with lamken. valuation done based on data... without data, we cant convince people. profit from jcy in last quarter is a fact.

Posted by kclee > 2012-02-09 15:13 | Report Abuse

lamken, to be honest here. Politic is a very major driven on the market. You Malaysian right? So am I. you heard about that election is coming soon right? and you know the history?

in a 3-6 month duration is just like the "great timing" after the election and people know market will be in a mess after that. And from what i believe, the index will greatly affect the price. Then next, lead to HUMAN behavior error i call them. EMOTION.

and it will lead to a big dip. true? so your time frame of 3-6 months for rm4-5 is a bit unreasonable for me. I believe it will happen. But not at that time frame.

just my 2 cent. correct me if im wrong.

Posted by lamken > 2012-02-09 16:12 | Report Abuse

Kclee: Iam out right now and very hard to reply to you on iPhone. I will reply to you later tonight.

Posted by Usry Bin Abdullah > 2012-02-09 16:30 | Report Abuse

Mr Lamken: how about the HLIB 4cast in their comment? they just says that the fair price for JCY only RM133.. (below current price)..any comment from u..?
thanks..

Posted by Fat Cat Tim Buddy > 2012-02-09 16:42 | Report Abuse

jcy cd cw (osk) exercise price is RM 0.70 , conversion ratio is 1 for 1, its that means , i pay osk RM 0.70 when i exercise the cw, and then i get 1 mother share of jcy?

Posted by kschai77i3 > 2012-02-09 17:52 | Report Abuse

Common sense: JCY intra-day graph is U shape, what does it mean? "somebody" pull it back up. A hopeless share won't have tis kind of graph. Collect with confident and wait for another round... and at your own risk!

Posted by Steven Lee > 2012-02-09 19:18 | Report Abuse

Fat Cat: the warrant is cash settlement, u wont get mother share, but u will get cash (price on 27 Feb 2012 minus 0.7)

Posted by lamken > 2012-02-09 20:32 | Report Abuse

Usry Bin Abdullah:

Based on PE x 10 they are saying JCY will only make 265m for FY12 ( 265m/ 2 billion shares = EPS 13.3sen, PE x10 = 1.33).
JCY already made 162m for Q1FY12 so they are saying that for the remaing 3 quarters, JCY will only make 34m in each quarter.
Yet JCY already announced they will be spending capex 300m over next 2 years (150m per year) to increase production by 40%. JCY can already achieve 162m without increasing output by 40%. Therefore their calculation makes no sense.

Very misleading and wrong indeed and even the Q1FY12 profit for JCY quoted in the forecast is wrong. JCY made 162.5m for Q1FY12 and not 164.9m as they quoted.

Posted by kizz > 2012-02-09 20:44 | Report Abuse

Hi lamken, no offense pls.. Just wonder what is ur profession?