Posted by kongtl > 2012-02-01 11:05 | Report Abuse

Yewkhian: You're a good man. God bless you. Thank you.

Posted by Handsome > 2012-02-01 13:28 | Report Abuse

good job boys!!!! feb 7 and 1st june thats all i want to say and i m one of those waiting for these two dates !!!! happy trading!! huat arr!!

Posted by yewkhian > 2012-02-01 13:34 | Report Abuse

Handsome: u know wat, JCY is my Big Ang Pao and 7/2 is my birthday!!! HUAT AR!!!!!

Posted by kongtl > 2012-02-01 13:38 | Report Abuse

Handsom: I am blur, what are those date "feb 7 and 1st june" signified?

Posted by lamken > 2012-02-01 18:09 | Report Abuse

yewkhian: the takeover price for sure will be more then RM 1.60:

Profit for Q1FY12 = 150m (from profit guidance)
(Capex 300m to increase production capacity by 40%)


Profit for Q2FY12 = 150m x 40% = 210m
Profit for Q3FY12 = 150m x 40% = 210m
Profit for Q4FY12 = 150m x 40% = 210m

Total profit for FY12 = 780M
- minus year 1 Capex 150m

Profit for FY12 = 630m

630m / 2 billion shares.
EPS= 31.5 sen
PE ratio X 10 = RM 3.15 Fair Value

-----------------------------

JCY IPO price 2010
207m (FY09 profit result)

207m /2 billion shares
EPS= 10.35 sen
PE ratio x 15 = 1.55
Fair value = RM 1.55 (listing price)
----------------------------

JCY was listed in 2010 with PE x 15 based on 207m profit from 2009. If you use the same PE ratio now to work out fair price to compare with IPO price, it should be PE x 15.
That means JCY should be RM 4.7 fair price.

Posted by tasoke > 2012-02-01 18:15 | Report Abuse

lamken,where u get d profit result from how can be y12 630 mi?

Posted by lamken > 2012-02-01 19:10 | Report Abuse

tasoke: I was not clear in my calculation earlier.it should be

Profit for Q1FY12 = 150m (from profit guidance)
(Capex 300m to increase production capacity by 40%)

Profit for Q2FY12 = 150m + 40% increase = 210m
Profit for Q3FY12 = 150m + 40% increase = 210m
Profit for Q4FY12 = 150m + 40% increase = 210m

Total profit for FY12 = 780M
- minus year 1 Capex 150m

Profit for FY12 = 630m.


The 300m capex was only approved when the profit guidance came out. This mean that JCY is achieving Q1FY12 profit of 150m without even spending the capex of 150m for FY12 (150m for fY13) yet- for new machines (CNCN machine take few months to build). This mean that the 40% increase in production capacity have not even started. So if you use 150m as a baseline and add 40% increase in production capacity for the next 3 quarter you will know what I mean. my source telling me they have secured big increase in sales volume from customers for next 2 years. if the next few quarter result going to be less then 150m,
why will they spend another 150m each year for next 2 years to increase production capacity by 40% when they can already achieve that without spending capex.

Posted by kongtl > 2012-02-01 19:38 | Report Abuse

Lamken: I'm convinced now. I buying JCY soon. Dow Futures looks very strong(19:35 M'sia time)! Tomorrow KLSE might open strong too. May not be easy to buy even at 1.31(1¢ premium). Beside JCY, what other stock you recommend? Terima kasih

Posted by hochaimee > 2012-02-01 19:59 | Report Abuse

Buy buy buy JCY

Posted by kongtl > 2012-02-01 20:19 | Report Abuse

hochaimee: Yes I'll buy JCY @ 1.31(1¢ premium)if I'm lucky. DAX(+2.02%); FTSE(+1.38%) & DOW futures(+0.71%). Oil too are strong +0.80% to USD99.26. Not going to be ease to buy, with 1¢ only small premium.

Posted by Handsome > 2012-02-01 21:58 | Report Abuse

lamken:u are very near already buy its gonna be better
those 2 dates are days when we will be happy hehe

Posted by Kent Lee > 2012-02-01 22:10 | Report Abuse

hansome... JCY will fly ??

Posted by Handsome > 2012-02-01 22:40 | Report Abuse

rocket !!!!

Posted by Handsome > 2012-02-01 22:41 | Report Abuse

BTW buy at own risk arr!!!!

Posted by kongtl > 2012-02-01 22:58 | Report Abuse

Dow Jones up as 102 points! at 22:56

Posted by lamken > 2012-02-01 23:06 | Report Abuse

Handsome: I know it will be even better then my calculation. I collected at 1.15 already. Holding about 200k of mother and 30k son. Iam expecting 500k+ paper profit for both.

Posted by yewkhian > 2012-02-01 23:08 | Report Abuse

lamken: u sailang kar? congra on the gain now!! Huat AR!!

Posted by yewkhian > 2012-02-01 23:09 | Report Abuse

Handsome: where u go for holiday?

Posted by Handsome > 2012-02-01 23:25 | Report Abuse

lamken:son can gain more but u have to be very alert..yewkhian:i just came back from harbin and sold the son at .50 and buy back at .43. dun keep the son too long.huge profit coming our way bro!!!

Posted by yewkhian > 2012-02-01 23:34 | Report Abuse

Handsome: sure Enjoyed much! he he he, i am waiting harvest time and i sell off some son on tuesday @ thanks for the sharing !!! God Bless you :)

Posted by Stephen Lee > 2012-02-01 23:38 | Report Abuse

Handsome:Congradulations making good money on JCY & sons. You must be a sharp shooter ler. Any TP?

Posted by Kim Yap Lau > 2012-02-01 23:38 | Report Abuse

just come to know a big news ... lamken could be right..

Posted by lamken > 2012-02-01 23:45 | Report Abuse

Handsome: Ian not even worried about son and will keep until expire. Son issuer must already hedge by buying mother share and can possibly throw to press price down. But Ian confident this will not happen for 2 reason, they already know about the real potential of mother. And jcy big man for sure will not allow price to be press down because affect his seagate valuation.

Posted by Handsome > 2012-02-01 23:46 | Report Abuse

Stephen: lamken already said about JCY future and i expecting higher than what lamken have said.BTW the real thing is Seagate la not others

Posted by lamken > 2012-02-02 00:12 | Report Abuse

Handsome: I think we are the only one who know the real potential of jcy. But all the big boys will also know when q1 result is announced because they will also use the result to confirm fair value. Anyone not holding jcy better think twice, especially the one who bought at ipo and loss money. This is your chance To make money back and also eat profit. The big ship will sail away in next few days.

Posted by tasoke > 2012-02-02 00:31 | Report Abuse

lamken pls help me Y12 Q1 profit 150 mil came from , i can't search la , terima kasih dahulu.

Posted by lamken > 2012-02-02 00:59 | Report Abuse

Tasoke: The profit guidance say 1900% increase over q1fy11. It does not state 150m so you have to calculate. 1900% over Q1FY11 (7.5m) = (1900% X 7.5m + 7.5m) = 150m. You can also look at other report which also already calculate and also equal 150m. Eg read the news article on this page called " jcy 300m capex a positive move.

Posted by kongtl > 2012-02-02 01:22 | Report Abuse

Handsom: I am still blur, what are those date "feb 7 and 1st june" signified?

Posted by tasoke > 2012-02-02 01:24 | Report Abuse

lamken thk ur infor, l just get d news date 04/1/12 co., justify n announcement, look like very strong support, base on low per price can more than rm3.00. good luck for all of us in same boat.

Posted by Handsome > 2012-02-02 01:29 | Report Abuse

kongtl:its actually my personal projection on their quarterly announcement date and the one in june is just what i guess about an jaw dropping announcement by JCY hehe

Posted by kongtl > 2012-02-02 01:41 | Report Abuse

Handsome: Noted & Thank you Sir. Dow Jones up 148 points. Sure tomorrow will be good for you guys.

Posted by kongtl > 2012-02-02 07:31 | Report Abuse

Good morning & MEGA good news : Seagate slam-dunks flood-hit rivals with triple-profit Q2
http://www.channelregister.co.uk/2012/02/01/seagate_q2_fy2012/

Seagate slam-dunks flood-hit rivals with triple-profit Q2
Ships 47 million disk drives as others sink

By Chris Mellor â?¢ Get more from this author

Posted in IT Channel, 1st February 2012 18:03 GMT

Seagate, the world's numero uno disk drive manufacturer, notched up a brilliant second 2012 quarter with revenues and profits soaring up above flood-diminished rival WD.

Revenues were $3.2bn and net income of $563m, which compares to $2.7bn revenue and $150m net income in the year-ago quarter. A 19 per cent increase in revenues, and profits over triple â?? 3.75 times as much, to be exact â?? those of the same quarter last year is a heck of a jump... especially in these Thai flood-straitened disk drive times. We guess scarcity of supply and drive price increases account for some of this.

The company shipped 47 million disk drives in the quarter, including 700,000 Samsung drives, and its gross margin was 31.6 per cent.

With Seagate having closed its Samsung HDD business acquisition, the company is the largest disk drive manufacturer and will remain so until, firstly, WD closes its Hitachi GST acquisition and, secondly, the enlarged WD ships more drives and earns more revenue than Seagate.

That's not going to happen soon.

In its equivalent quarter, WD reported revenues of $2bn, net income of $145m, gross margin of 32.5 per cent, and shipped 28.5 million drives â?? but then it had flooded factories in Thailand, which Seagate did not (although some of its suppliers did).

In the earnings call, Seagate's executive vice president of operations, Dave Mosley, said: "To put the disaster in an economic perspective, it is by some measures the fourth-largest natural disaster in history. So far, estimates are at $45bn of damage, and 13 million lives were disrupted... As a result, all of our 20-plus product platforms experienced some form of supply interruption, and for a few products, the damage brought down the supply lines completely... our average unit costs went up approximately $2.50 in the December quarter."

Interestingly, supply chain management alterations could lead to lasting improvements. CEO, chairman and president Steve Luczo said: "Seagate dramatically reduced product configuration complexity and moved the vast majority of our fulfillment process to direct factory shipments. These efforts have fundamentally altered demand planning dynamics with our customers and have resulted in a much better alignment of supply and demand. We expect that these improvements to supply chain management will become standard practice as our industry fully recovers over the course of calendar 2012, benefiting our industry, suppliers and customers."

Posted by kongtl > 2012-02-02 11:21 | Report Abuse

Yes yes yes, just got JCY @ Rm1.31, wish me luck guys.

Posted by fcsavana > 2012-02-02 12:42 | Report Abuse

Hi everyone,

This stock still can buy it ? hehe..

Posted by kongtl > 2012-02-02 13:10 | Report Abuse

fcsavana: Yes, I was a skeptic, now I'm converted to JCY. TP Rm1.50~2.00. Go for it man!

Posted by kuance > 2012-02-02 14:00 | Report Abuse

you dont even know what you are doing kongtl. how come in awhile you're in notion. now in the split second u are jcy. You will confuse ppl in this forum with your act.

Posted by kongtl > 2012-02-02 14:15 | Report Abuse

kuance: KLSC consist of 1,472 counter. I was VERY wrong for not buying into JCY last week(1.14~1.19). Now I'm paying d price for not trusting you guys earlier, I just bought @ Rm1.21 this morning. I have taken profit from Noxxxx. Putting to JCY. Terima kasih & keep up d good work.

Posted by raphael > 2012-02-02 14:55 | Report Abuse

Kongtl : Pardon me, if you are new here, please avoid confusing the rest...

Posted by kongtl > 2012-02-02 15:02 | Report Abuse

raphael: Someone sell Maybank then buy Public Bank! KLSE is just not 1 counter. I'm sure you guys do hold more then 1 counter. I'm learning. People like lamken do good research, I now respect his passion & dedication.

Posted by kuance > 2012-02-02 15:04 | Report Abuse

kongtl.... we didnt blame u changing counter but please mind your saying here to avoid confusion k?

Posted by kongtl > 2012-02-02 15:15 | Report Abuse

kuance: what other counter do U buy beside JCY? I Thank you in advance.

Posted by njue76 > 2012-02-02 15:38 | Report Abuse

buy againts at 1.32 ..average up

Posted by kongtl > 2012-02-02 15:42 | Report Abuse

njue76: I'm in d queue @ Rm1.32. Not yet done. Looks very strong. Thanks

Posted by kongtl > 2012-02-02 15:45 | Report Abuse

Yes, just done @ Rm1.32. Some sell 100,000 & I got it.

Posted by raphael > 2012-02-02 15:51 | Report Abuse

Kuance : perhaps we just apply our "visual filter". sometimes ppl tend to be selective deafness...or ignorant..though we give friendly advice

Posted by lamken > 2012-02-02 15:56 | Report Abuse

Anyone having problem reading all my previous post, please use your iphone or Ipad.

Posted by kongtl > 2012-02-02 15:59 | Report Abuse

raphael & Kuance: Sorry guys. Please don't bother to apply anything. This is my final comment. Good luck with JCY

Posted by kuance > 2012-02-02 16:51 | Report Abuse

sure you can comment anything... but dun give false alarm bro. this forum i believe is for discussing... either technical or fundamental.

kongtl, Im on MRCB now.

Posted by njue76 > 2012-02-02 16:53 | Report Abuse

finally 1.33. No problem..ready to 1.40 next week...

Posted by raphael > 2012-02-02 17:29 | Report Abuse

Kuance, Kongtl and all: Just off the topic abit, how come you guys like have $ to buy a few counter at one time? using a special account or normal account only?