Posted by yewkhian > 2011-12-22 22:11 | Report Abuse

JCY (TRADING BUY, FV: RM1.30) relatively unscathed. Management said all its production facilities are running as usual at this juncture and an upward pricing revision seeming likely as the company attempts to fill up the vacuum caused by the production shortfall given that its Thai facilities came off the flood relatively unscathed. We believe the disaster could be a blessing in disguise for JCY as the company attempts to grab a bigger share of the HDD component industry while at the same time command better pricing in view of the shortage. That said, we are revisiting our model and incorporating an average 15% ASP increase for FY12, followed by a marginal 6% retracement in FY13 as we believe that HDD component production should have returned to normal by then. All in, we are tweaking up our core earnings by >100% to RM378.4m for FY12 and RM280.0m for FY13. Changing our valuation basis from 0.9x FY12 P/NTA to 8x FY12 PER to reflect its anticipated profitability, our FV now stands at RM1.30. We upgrade our call from Sell (RM0.41) to TRADING BUY as near term sentiment is likely to be lifted by a potential sharp spike in earnings over the next few quarters should component pricing improve. Nonetheless, we are still cautious on sustainability in the longer term as margins are likely to revert to normal as the entire HDD supply chain returns to normalcy come 3QCY12. Our FV implies a 9x FY13 PER, which we deem justified given JCYâ??s sheer size relative to its peers, and the fact that its operations were left unscathed.

Posted by yewkhian > 2011-12-22 22:12 | Report Abuse

Stephen Lee, this is from OSK report today :)feel free to comment

Posted by Stephen Lee > 2011-12-22 23:49 | Report Abuse

yewkhian:I am colour blind to OSK report and better ask bonescythe whom she claimed to be a fundmental and technical analysis and she love writing report as she got alot of free time.

Posted by Stephen Lee > 2011-12-23 03:07 | Report Abuse

Rsawit is going to rocket soon...

Posted by yewkhian > 2011-12-23 06:49 | Report Abuse

noted with thanks.

Posted by gohshiau > 2011-12-23 10:29 | Report Abuse

stephen lee: you mean now can join the "R"-boat?

Posted by kelvin_229 > 2011-12-23 11:55 | Report Abuse

OSK said buy you have to sell, OSK say sell , you wait to buy. cibai why osk didnt ask us to buy when 40, now 90 ask us buy. Osk think we are sohai is it ???

Posted by tohca > 2011-12-23 13:42 | Report Abuse

+5. good one Kelvin

Posted by kschai77i3 > 2011-12-23 16:10 | Report Abuse

Those research, TA, & comment are all "POST" info. They research, analysis and comment based on passed data!!!

Posted by john_yeoyeo > 2011-12-23 16:47 | Report Abuse

to kelvin229 like the way u comment

Posted by Kent Aziz > 2011-12-23 17:07 | Report Abuse

i agree with u Kelvin229...& Kchai...

Posted by Stephen Lee > 2011-12-24 00:07 | Report Abuse

I am collecting along with Big Bros now on "R" since in the mkt everyone know that 'R" will shoot up. Cool it first....and continue to collect.

Posted by Stephen Lee > 2011-12-24 04:13 | Report Abuse

I am colour blind to OSK lastest Report. Why they include mkt rumours as they are trading Investment house and ought to be professional. Quoted from latest OSK Report "'Call upgraded to Trading Buy with Fair Value of RM1.30. Understand that there are rumours of a strong price push over the next 1 month,' it said"

Posted by yewkhian > 2011-12-24 09:22 | Report Abuse

By the way Stephen, u no need to sleep? 04.13 in morning?

Posted by gohshiau > 2011-12-24 10:40 | Report Abuse

Stephen:Thanks for sharing.....

Posted by Stephen Lee > 2011-12-24 22:45 | Report Abuse

Traders never sleep unlike remisers.

Posted by cmlooi > 2011-12-24 22:59 | Report Abuse

Is JCY manufacturing and assembling the entire HDD or only some components? If JCY manufactures only some or part of the HDD components, would it be good enough? Who is putting them all together and do they have all the other parts?

Posted by Stephen Lee > 2011-12-25 03:00 | Report Abuse

cmlooi:When you buy a car, do you like to know how the engine and clutch works and how the engine mount together in the chasis and linking of the clutch with brakes and engines simuntaneously? No need to know all these but I can asure you that the company upcoming profit is very very good. Catch it Bonescythe.....Merry Christmas!!!

Posted by gohshiau > 2011-12-25 13:20 | Report Abuse

stephen lee:you mean now still can collect jcy and jcy-cd ?is it too high for the price? or just like what OSK said it will up to 1.30? Any comments?

Posted by chng meng kwee > 2011-12-25 19:17 | Report Abuse

a small story to tell~~normally in Bull or bear market's times,nobody border to think,to listen or to consider....they just one thing in their mind----go,go,go..go along with emotions!!!After some exictment or frustration,then regret,regret...and history repeats without any lesson learnt!
Sometime,we must ask ourselve one simple question,after years of buying in and out very actively in the market.....actually YOU make money or loose money?If unfortunately the answer is Negatif,then you should think deeply....you really want to waste lots of times to do something that always bring sadness instead of happiness?
ONE simple way...maybe nobody will believe or really like it....just study and collect all info.that concerned and TRY to accumulate the selective stock as LOW as possible and also as SLOW as you can.....NEVER feel hurry!!!the stock market will always be there waiting for you and don't let youself destroyed and buried by the emotional hurrying feeling!!
When you have finished collecting the stock,just wait......time will come to your Turn,back to your routine life....no need to put your eyes on the screen always!
One thing to remind,you must put a target to SELL.....Nobody can win all,most important and vital principle is WIN better than LOOSE.
My dear frens,i just sincerely to share with you my real experiences in stock market for about 36years......Now,i manange to make about RM50K--RM80K per year with a capital of RM200K....It looks easy but really not that easy to follow!!!I hope everybody can make money from the stock wisely and never played off by your own emotion!!!
My dear frens,i wish you happy trading........

Posted by Eu Rose > 2011-12-25 19:38 | Report Abuse

Mr chng, tq for sharing, u have eaten more salt than rice, yr advice is worth it's weight in gold, hope young n impatient ppl will pay heed to it. Merry Christmas! All forumers.

Posted by Kent Lee > 2011-12-26 00:36 | Report Abuse

Mr. Chng......agree

Posted by Runner > 2011-12-26 00:36 | Report Abuse

it's true Mr. Chng. Thanks for your sincere advice.

Posted by Stephen Lee > 2011-12-26 04:15 | Report Abuse

What Mr. Chang share is true and we have to play stock at arm-length. Do not be emotional and playing share in KLSE is a psychology game. Bravely dare to share with you that 85 to 95% ppl playing shares will loose money and we have to be smart. Do have some ideas of TA and FA will added to your advantages. Try to follow CP Teh Blog whom his stocks investment is worth consider (which is similar to Mr. Chang ideas) but guides you in a better position of investing. Cherios, Happy trading.

Posted by Stephen Lee > 2011-12-26 04:39 | Report Abuse

chng meng kwee:Would you kindly enough to read the blog: My Tratles & KMN an Interest Discussion dd 25 Dec 2011?

Posted by chng meng kwee > 2011-12-26 11:35 | Report Abuse

i have visited the blog,My Tratles....is a good and kind JOB.about KMN,just no interest to touch her....anyways thanks Stephen:-)

Posted by dinpolo > 2011-12-27 03:47 | Report Abuse

It briliant idea,thanks for sincere advise,all the best to u,happy new year all traders

Posted by Steven Lee > 2011-12-27 13:08 | Report Abuse

Stephen Lee:wat is "TA" & "FA"?

Posted by Stephen Lee > 2011-12-27 20:03 | Report Abuse

FA+TA=FATA means Getting Rich in Chinese. FA=Financial Analysis & TA=Technical Analysis. Of course + some LUCK. GBU

Posted by Steven Lee > 2011-12-27 22:18 | Report Abuse

FATA nice joke tho =)

Posted by gohshiau > 2011-12-28 16:52 | Report Abuse

any comments for jcy & jcy-cd?

Posted by Kent Lee > 2011-12-28 17:00 | Report Abuse

this stocks caught me by surprise... i thot 1.00 will face resistance... hmmm i was wrong

Posted by Stephen Lee > 2011-12-28 19:07 | Report Abuse

Is nothing surprise ler

Posted by Kent Lee > 2011-12-28 19:18 | Report Abuse

steplee... still got fuel in the tank to push up?

Posted by yewkhian > 2011-12-28 19:32 | Report Abuse

Pinewood !! JCY rocks !!!

Posted by Stephen Lee > 2011-12-29 02:57 | Report Abuse

Kent Lee:It needs a breather and I aready clear all mine today.I am afraid the middle east events (Iran wants to control the seaway). yewkhian:Bonescycle is doing a Bollywood JCY rocks and dance.

Posted by Handsome > 2011-12-29 03:17 | Report Abuse

Kent Lee:don't worry there is still more to come,just if u can hold on for few more weeks. u might be seeing something very unusual happening with JCY. its more than anyone can expect. that's all I can say. for those who don't agree with me, time will tell after all, everyone here is investing at own risk.

Posted by yewkhian > 2011-12-29 03:23 | Report Abuse

Thanks stephen Lee! Thanka Handsome!

Posted by Kent Lee > 2011-12-29 09:10 | Report Abuse

tks bros...... good bless u...

Posted by gohshiau > 2011-12-29 10:48 | Report Abuse

Mr.Chng: what you think? anymore up date?

Posted by yewkhian > 2011-12-29 11:41 | Report Abuse

Handsome: ur TP how much will JCY go to? RM 1.5 @RM 1.8 ?

Posted by 660220adsiil > 2011-12-29 12:43 | Report Abuse

Based on current uptrend, price can easily touched rm1.30 in less than 2 weeks. I have already invested 100k, so buy before too late

Posted by starwood > 2011-12-29 23:03 | Report Abuse

can buy jcy-cd as well...660220adsiil

Posted by Handsome > 2011-12-30 00:24 | Report Abuse

yewkhian: RM 2 by end of feb and RM 5 by begining 3rd quater for those who thinks that i am dreaming please comment if JCY don't hit my target by then

Posted by Adam Ryan > 2011-12-30 00:39 | Report Abuse

if go rm5, its means jcy better than blue chip....

Posted by Stephen Lee > 2011-12-30 03:22 | Report Abuse

yewkhian:Do you believe the JCY info is "cun"? Better ask Bonescycle whom he is the beginner(author) of JCY posting blog but hasn't be finisher yet? Any comment of target RM5 begining of 3rd Qtr?

Posted by yewkhian > 2011-12-30 06:33 | Report Abuse

Stephen Lee. I believe JCY RM 1.3 +- even RM 1.5 +- but RM 5 i am not sure, i hold some jcy for months. Wait for extra bonus since eveyone talk about JCY :)

Posted by Kent Lee > 2011-12-30 09:39 | Report Abuse

JCY RM5 ??

Posted by Steven Lee > 2011-12-30 10:14 | Report Abuse

JCY-CD
Expiry date: 27/02/2012
Exercise price:0.7
Ratio 1 to 1

does is means that you can buy 1 JCY mother share if you owned 1 JCY-CD with RM0.7 before 27/02/2012 from OSK?

Posted by Handsome > 2011-12-30 10:51 | Report Abuse

JCY CD is cash settlement. if by 27 feb the mother is RM 1.5 then u will receive a cheque amounting RM 1.5 - RM 0.7 minus some small fees.