KUALA LUMPUR: The shares in Censof Holdings Bhd, MyEG Services Bhd and GHL Systems Bhd — three counters considered the biggest beneficiaries of the goods and services tax (GST) when implemented in 2015 — have risen since the announcement last Friday.
Censof jumped 5.22% to close at 60.5 sen yesterday with 39.4 million shares changing hands. MyEG recorded a new all-time high of RM2.56 yesterday, surging 7.11% from Monday’s close of RM2.39.
Kenanga Research analyst Chan Ken Yew said in a recent report that Censof, one of the major accounting solutions providers for government agencies, is seen as a clear-cut winner. He anticipates Censof to see more contract flows with the implementation of the GST.
“Besides, it may also benefit from the government’s intention to promote outcome-based budgeting (OBB) in the Ministry of International Trade and Industry and Health Ministry.”
Chan said Censof is handling a similar project for the Ministry of Finance worth RM25.47 million, its second biggest contract after the Social Security Organisation (Socso).
JF Apex Research noted that the implementation of the GST would be a major catalyst for e-services or IT solution providers, which could benefit front runners such as MyEG and Censof, undertaking back-end systems work and training for government departments.
AFTER the government proposed the Goods and Services Tax (GST) in Budget 2014, counters considered the biggest beneficiaries of the implementation of the tax, such as MyEg Services Bhd, GHL Systems Bhd and Censof Bhd, started to rise.
However, analysts say the nascent payment system sector is not limited to these stocks. In fact, companies like Cuscapi Bhd, Managepay Systems Bhd, Microlink Solutions Bhd, Datasonic Group Bhd, Rexit Bhd, N2N Connect Bhd, CBSA Bhd, Rexit Bhd and Excel Force MSC Bhd, which derive a substantial portion of their earnings from facilitating electronic payments, could be beneficiaries of the implementation of GST.
“We believe this growth has not been fully reflected in forecasts or valuations of selected stocks. Looking forward, as the growth cycle accelerates, M&A are likely to drive sentiment and price as domestic players search for increased economies of scale and international firms with low borrowing costs bid to enjoy emerging market growth,” says a report on the payment system sector by Hong Leong Investment Bank (HLIB).
Market observers note that the implementation of GST will require a massive reworking of the backend of the payment system, both at the business and government levels.
Moreover, according to EY’s Indirect Tax 2013 report, electronic data allows tax administrators to use IT-based audit tools that can help combat fraud and tax evasion more effectively.
The report says 57% of GST around the world has mandatory electronic filing and a total of 92% is either mandatory or optional electronic filing as governments discover that it is far more efficient to administer GST with electronic data transmission and filing.
Censof, which is a key player in the business-to-government segment, could secure future contracts from the government as it had previously secured an OBB job from the MoF earlier this year for RM25.47 million.
“As the government is targeting to expand the OBB system to another two ministries, we are positive about Censof based on its previous track record in securing government projects,” Kenanga Research says in a report.
Meanwhile, Censof’s GST-ready accounting software and training services could be used by more than 80 different government agencies in the country, giving the company new income streams.
“Based on our understanding, the GST software upgrade service is charged an average of RM200,000 to RM2 million and this largely depends on the client’s size, system and level of integration,” Kenanga Research adds.
Furthermore, Censof’s recent acquisition of a 45% stake in Time Engineering Bhd will result in it controlling Dagang Net Technologies Sdn Bhd, which facilitates the import and export of goods and related payments in Malaysia, according to HLIB.
Short term trader pls be aware of the RSI divergence. Look for further consolidation with weaker volume.Sept Q result will be out soon n I hope it will not disappoint. Technical MGO will be over by 20th Nov and Censof will get a huge jump in its gearing of 0.23x to 1.73x. It will probably take weeks to consolidat
It is a strong distribution pattern at around 0.640-0.650. Come next week there will be more talks abt Dectaper because of the strong Oct job data from USA . Any talk about QE tapering, EM ( especially ASEAN)stock mkt will suffer cos of pulling out of hot funds. The whole mkt will consolidate and those which have good run up will see more downside. The GST play has already factored in the euphoria and Censof will not be exempted. There will be cheaper price. For those who follow Dali's Murasaki Weekly Market Review, pls dont be too bullish. Economists in USA are talking abt Dectaper and not March 2014. DJIA may have a good show on Friday night, it is going to be a trap if we are too overtly bullish.Watch for what Yellen may say abt the job data.
One side is good news supplied by excelyou & another dark side is well said by Forwardinvestor.. This contradicts & dilemmas to ppl who are in doubts whether to sell positions or hold tight to hit next tP=0.75, TP=0.95.. Support=0.60 & 0.56
For mid & long term, censof no doubt is a good ctr to invest due to its few big projects in hand esp the gst theme..
For short term, Forwardinvestor may have reasons to cautios friends...
Wil the US's taper really affect badly on us??? I dont know!!! But i know the near term TP=0.70 can be hit after a mild consolidation..
My take is based on chart pattern Censof is still in early accumulation stage .IT n Oil & Gas stocks will be the theme plays post budget..going forward. Censof is an IT company n major shareholders had successfully built up a good business model with acquisition of Time Engineering n Censof is a takeoff stock capable if delivering super profits going into 2014. Investors should buy into Censof on any price weakness . Furthermore Censof is under researched n therefore this is another reason for strong buying opportunity before good news r factored into the stock price going forward with more IT GST contract awards cum IT service awards...
The major central bankers will act to keep interest rate as low as possible going forward although there maybe talks on possible tapering..the effect of tapering is higher interest rate but the central bankers goal is to keep interest rate at a low level...
Censof will most likely be not on foreign funds portfolio, is underesearched n not on radar screen of foreign investment funds..., it is more of local funds interest...
Broke through 64.5 cents resistance with solid volume...now @ 67 cents...Very Good Indicator of further Price surge ahead if Censof close above 64.5 cents today...
Censof IPO price was 93 cents in 2011 and TA Securities earlier forecast TP was RM 1.30...This forecast was made without the "Top line plus Bottom line contributions" from Time Engineering then.....
choop818,i did juz last week,expecting to c 0.75 but i advised to sell at 0.72 instead.I had a few bad experiences with this stock as it never hit my tp but not this time,hehe.
It is only a technical MGO.It is not a bad news. Which rational investor would want to sell at 0.20 while quoted price is 0.27? So come 20th Nov, Censof will own 45+% in TEM and incorporate into Censof fin account. Watch out for Feb 2014 for 31.12.2013 ending quarter for TEM contribution to Censof.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
excelyou
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Posted by excelyou > 2013-11-07 10:53 | Report Abuse
This week buyers likely to push up to RM0.72