Expect EPS from business at least 2.4 x 4 = 9.6sen per year. Disposal of assets will bring in extra. Financial position of the company should be manageable as the management still paying dividend and there is share buy back
FOR 2016M I NOW THINK TROPICANA WILL MORE LIKELY SIMPLIFY THEIR DIVIDENDS BY HAVING ONLY 2 PAYMENTS i.e. 1st interim of 2.5 sen (just declared) Plus 1 Final D WHICH WILL LIKELY NE A COMBINATION OF CASH D 3.5 SEN AND 1.388 TREASURY SHARE DIVIDEND (to be announced together with their 4Q/FULL YEAR RESULTS DURING FEBRUARY 2017)
TOTAL DIVIDENDS CAN STILL TOTAL 7.388 SEN.
JUST SAFELY BUY AND ACCUMULATE FOR SUCH HIGH DIVIDEND YIELDS TO BE COLLECTED IN ABOUT 3 MONTHS TIME.
(NOTE. ALREADY HAVE 20.1M TREASURY SHARES = 1.388 SHARE D PER 100 SHARES HELD)
OTHER FUNDAMENTALS INCLUDE NTA RM2.19 UNBILLED SALES RM2.6B GIVING GOOD EARNINGS VISIBILITY OVER THE NEXT 3 YEARS AS THESE BECOME PROGRESSIVELY COLLECTED FROM PURCHASERS. STILL GOT VAST LANDBANKS IN PRIME AREAS IN KL, PJ, WITH GDV WORTH RM50B. LAST YEAR PAID 7 SEN DIVIDENDS
ADDITIONAL POSITIVES ARE THE REASONABLY MUCH LOWER GEARING (A HIGH OF 7.7x a few years ago TO ITS CURRENT 3x due to disposals of large non core assets)
Tropicana has actually paid 7 sen D last year INCLUDING TREASURY SHARES. HENCE WILL MOST LIKELY DISTRIBUTE ITS HOLDINGS OF 20.1M SUCH SHARES AS PART OF ITS FINAL D FOR 2016.
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IMPROVING OUTLOOK FOR TROPICANA =================================== LIKELY REBOUND AND START OF A NEW UPTREND IN ITS SHARE PRICE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING BULLISH CATALYSTS:-
RISING UPTREND IN QUARTERLY PROFITS 1Q 16M 2Q 33M 3Q 37M 4Q (very strong profits likely based on “The Group recorded 3Q revenue of RM357.1 million, a surge of 46.0% compared to the same quarter last year. Cumulative nine months revenue was RM1.0 billion, an increase of 5.7% compared to RM947.8 million in the same period last year. The property developer said a one-off gain on disposals of properties and a subsidiary of RM161.7 registered in the previous corresponding period caused the Group to record lower profit before tax (“PBT”) of RM53.4 million in 3Q and RM127.3 million in the cumulative nine months period in 2016. Excluding the aforementioned one-off gain, the Group’s net profit for the quarter and cumulative nine months were higher by RM39.8 million respectively compared to the same quarter and nine months period a year ago. With an unbilled sales of RM2.6 billion, the Group remains well-positioned to achieve its full-year sales target of RM1.2 billion, anchored by encouraging demand for its developments within prime locations, coupled with its 17 on-going projects and strategic approaches to unlock the value of over 1,300 acres of prime land with potential gross development value in excess of RM50.0 billion EXPECTED STRONG 4Q PROFITS AND A HIGH FINAL DIVIDEND (comprising a cash dividend and Treasury share dividend will boost up its share price in a CNY RALLY). STRONGER 4Q PROFITS TO BE SUPPORTED BY INCREASED CORE EARNINGS RECORDED IN 3Q (after excluding one off gains registered in the previous corresponding Q) PLUS THE CAPTURING OF CAPITAL GAINS IN THE COMING 4Q ENDING 31/12/2016 FROM THE FOLLOWING DISPOSALS :- SALES VALUE (properties) CAPITAL GAINS NET CASH PROCEEDS STATUS 140M DiJaya Plaza 8.9M 51.6M COMPLETED 24.9M Damansara Intan 18.2M 18.6M COMPLETED 58.0M PUDU Sky Express 2.5M 24.4M BY 5/12/2106 570M PULAI Lands (Johor) 55.5M 218.4M S&P 1/7/2106 (TOTAL CAPITAL GAINS RM85.1M. AND NET CASH PROCEEDS RM313M) (NET CASH RECEIPTS ARE AFTER REPAYMENT OF ALL RELATED LOANS) (THESE WILL RESULT IN FURTHER REDUCTIONS IN BORROWINGS . GEARING RATIOS WILL BE LOWERED WHICH WILL INCREASE FUTURE PROFITS DUE TO POSITIVE IMPACTS ON REDUCED BANK INTEREST COSTS AND ALSO INCREASING FREE CASH FLOWS FOR HIGHER CASH DIVIDENDS)
OTHER STRONG FINANCIALS NTA RM2.19 PAR VALUE RM1.00 RETAINED EARNINGS RM1.08B CASH ND BANK BALANCES (as at 30/9/16) RM970M GEARING REDUCED FROM 7.7x PREVIOUSLY TO < 3.0x (Excluding recent early full redemption of its Medium Term Notes of RM280M) Tropicana is becoming very Cash Rich.
OTHER POSITIVE INDICATORS NO EXPOSURES TO ANY FOREIGN CURRENCY LOANS (no adverse financial impact even if our Ringgit values were to go down further) GOOD EARNINGS VISIBILITY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL YEARS Supported by unbilled sales of RM2.6B and 17 ongoing projects where sales are still satisfactory (despite a generally softer property market) due to their prime locations, mainly in KL, PJ, Selangor )
NEAR TERM CATALYSTS FOR NEW PRICE UPTREND OVERSEAS STOCK MARKETS LED BY USA DOW INDEX ARE BULLISH AS THE TRUMP RALLY-SANTA RALLY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO 2017. OUR BURSA AND TROPICANA SHARE PRICE CAN RIDE ON THESE RALLIES AND BECOME OUR SANTA-YEAR END AND CHINESE NEW YEAR RALLIES. (aided by year end window dressing and anticipated Early General Election in mid-2017) BRIGHT PROSPECTS SUPPORTED BY EXPECTED STRONG 4Q PROFITS AND HIGHER DIVIDEND ANNOUNCEMENTS AROUND CNY. FINAL DIVIDENDS ARE ALWAYS HIGHER (especially when the company’s fundamentals are strong and profits are increasing) (Disclaimer: MY ABOVE COMMENTS ARE PURELY MY OWN PERSONAL VIEWS AND ARE merely to share the interesting observations I made in i3investor. Nothing in this article should be considered as investment advice nor is intended to be investment advice. NO BUY OR SELL CALLS HERE)
Not today only, it has be quiet for a year now. Just have to wait,wait and wait. Till now the official Q3 report haven't announce yet, divided date not release yet.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
tksw
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Posted by tksw > 2016-11-25 09:22 | Report Abuse
Expect EPS from business at least 2.4 x 4 = 9.6sen per year. Disposal of assets will bring in extra. Financial position of the company should be manageable as the management still paying dividend and there is share buy back