Posted by lcng123 > 2013-11-27 12:04 | Report Abuse

yes. agreed. mkh's plantation estate was excellent. they can matured in 22 to 24 months compare to others need 30 to 36 months. for the first 9 months maturity, they can hit 20mt/ha (25,996mt in sept 2013), kim loong was 24mt/ha. when mkh's plantation estate situated in peak harvest season, it may hit up to at least 25mt/ha per year.

Posted by Alex Chong > 2013-11-27 15:10 | Report Abuse

Hopefully Indon is trouble free for MKH land.

Posted by haikeyila > 2013-11-27 15:14 | Report Abuse

palms maturing in 22 to 24 months and hitting 20t/ha in 9 months is too far-fetched. where is this from? either this was a lie or the basis of their calculation is not following the normal standard.

Posted by Aero1 > 2013-11-27 15:18 | Report Abuse

With plantation, earnings is now more transparent and sustainable. I believe they also have intention to build its property investment portfolio which will be held for recurring income. Small IOI is in the making ..

Posted by lcng123 > 2013-11-27 16:02 | Report Abuse

haikeyila, not i am saying this, but alex chen, the executive chairman of mkh said during a press visit to company's plantation estate in kalimantan recently. you can refer to link http://www.mkhberhad.com under latest news column.

Posted by swot > 2013-11-27 18:25 | Report Abuse

The 25,996mt per hectare per mth is obviously a typo as not all the fields are yielding yet. The trees are just coming into maturity in stages so expect the yields to keep climbing over the next few years. 4 years down the road they will be hitting close to the 30mt per hectare per year mark - that's when you will see 30,000+ ton/mth. But I do agree with lcng123's observation that MKH has two big core businesses. The agri arm has the potential to overtake the property arm - just do the maths for a 15,000 hectare plantation. The valuation of RM5 looks fair. Takes time though. Chairman still going strong. Wish him well

Posted by lcng123 > 2013-11-27 20:01 | Report Abuse

Let me make a simple calculation for mkh's plantation business. if mkh's estate can make up to 24tons/ha. with 15,000ha, they can produce 15,000 X 24 = 360,000tons FFB. if all the FFB will extract to CPO internally by own oil palm mill (currently they have a 60tons/hour mill, will upgrade to 90tons/hour next year) with 21% extract rate, it cab produce 75,600tons CPO. the cost to produce CPO was about rm1,300/tons. if the CPO price stand at rm2,600, the profit for 75,600tons CPO was 75,600 X (2,600 - 1,300) = rm98.2mil (eps: 28sen) . if CPO price stand at rm2,800, the profit can increase to 75,600 X 1,500 = rm113.4mil (eps: 32sen) and if rm3,000, profit = rm128.5mil 9eps:37sen). if in the future, the CPO price can stand at rm3,800 (like in 2 years ago), profit = 189mil (eps:54sen). of course, the figure above are before debt interest expenses, tax and other misc. expenses. correct me if i am wrong.

Posted by shrobin > 2013-11-27 20:56 | Report Abuse

If you click on the link provided by lcng123 on 27/11/2013 16:02, you will noticed the 25,996 mt is FFB recorded for the month of September. The Star paper reported it as 25,996mt per hectare per mth. My guess is the Star reporting is wrong. Also, note the 224,037 mt of FFB recorded for 9 months of this year. Whatever in the link is the same content on the latest Edge Weekly.

Posted by shrobin > 2013-11-27 21:04 | Report Abuse

Coming Chinese New Year is at end Jan. It is likely that coming AGM will be in January. So, it is within 2 months that we can find out more at the AGM. Hope to see some of you guys there!

Posted by swot > 2013-11-27 21:13 | Report Abuse

lcng, your numbers are very close. In Indonesia there is a 10% export duty but you forgot to include the 5% palm kernel yield on top of the CPO which would bring an additional RM30+ million at full maturity. 224,037 mt for 9 mths is like 20 mt per hectare per year - trees are too young to give that yield so probably they purchased outside crop to fill the capacity. lcng, are you from the industry? curious

Posted by shrobin > 2013-11-27 21:15 | Report Abuse

Between more bonus shares or more dividend, my choice is more for dividend. Look at the case of Wellcal. I believe MKH will be way beyond the billion dollar club very soon if only they announce a good dividend policy.

Posted by lcng123 > 2013-11-27 21:21 | Report Abuse

swot, i am sorry that i have forgotten to include the palm kernel production. by the way, i am a computer software developer.

Posted by Aero1 > 2013-11-28 09:14 | Report Abuse

MKH's investment property stood at RM250 million. If 10% increase in market value, EPS will be enhanced by 7 sen.

Posted by Aero1 > 2013-11-28 09:21 | Report Abuse

Shareholders need fund to convert the warrants .. higher dividend may help and in fact could reduce MKH's borrowing cost if shareholders buy into prospects of the company.

Posted by swot > 2013-11-28 09:21 | Report Abuse

lcng, Costs may go up since Indonesia has annual review of minimum wage, diesel is not subsidised and fertiliser prices are open to market forces so the cop of RM1300 may need to factor this in. Other than that you are spot on.

Posted by lcng123 > 2013-11-28 10:13 | Report Abuse

swot, what i mentioned here was a rough figures, used for reference only. of course there was some +ve and -ve gain and loss need to be considered.

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2013-11-28 14:21 | Report Abuse

4th Qtr Results :

Revenue : $217.85 mils
PBT : $26.58 mils
PAT : $24.16 mils
EPS : 7.71 cents (whole yr EPS : 32.97 cents)

No dividend proposed.

Below expectation, big junk of Forex loss due to weak Indon Rupiah.

Posted by Aero1 > 2013-11-28 14:22 | Report Abuse

4Q results out! Plantation made losses. Operating cash flow was strong. No dividend proposed.

Posted by anbz > 2013-11-28 14:34 | Report Abuse

mkh-wb is moving up..bloody hell

Posted by anbz > 2013-11-28 14:36 | Report Abuse

may be that's good for warrant holder when there is no dividen..and that's why the warrant is up

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2013-11-28 14:57 | Report Abuse

ha ha ha....panic selling !

Posted by anbz > 2013-11-28 15:01 | Report Abuse

fell pulak? actually profit cummulatively increases significantly...yet not quarterly...apalah diaorang baca pun tak tau

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-11-28 15:04 | Report Abuse

预计良好业蹟，剛買进第二批。祝我们好运。

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-11-28 15:07 | Report Abuse

死啰，買了才看到你上貼的业蹟。

Posted by Johari > 2013-11-28 15:09 | Report Abuse

relax guys. operationally plantations is profitable for 4Q. Just unrealised forex loss. Same thing with IJM Plantations for this quarter. Solid results still.

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-11-28 15:10 | Report Abuse

有eps 32.97sens 打底，没事、没事。

Posted by anbz > 2013-11-28 15:13 | Report Abuse

yes i'm in..just buying some of the warrant...macam mau limit down hehehe..scary

Posted by swot > 2013-11-28 15:19 | Report Abuse

the plantation results are only half of what they can achieve at full maturity. The best has yet to come.The forex is just a hiccup. They just need to have a hedging policy in place or something along those lines.

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2013-11-28 15:20 | Report Abuse

short term players will sell la ! Results below expectation and no dividend proposed.

Overall fundamental still rock solid, the forex loss/gain is something that can't control by the management.

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2013-11-28 15:24 | Report Abuse

However in short term, i guess the price will be stagnant for a while until some clear indicators is appear. Anyway just my personal opinion.

Posted by haikeyila > 2013-11-28 15:26 | Report Abuse

for the past two weeks MKH was almost the only property counter that had stood firm. Unfortunately she will now join the rest of the downhill gang.

Posted by kim66718 > 2013-11-28 15:31 | Report Abuse

MKH still a good counter.

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2013-11-28 15:45 | Report Abuse

Durian Runtuh..... drop more ....i want to buy cheap cheap ! :P

Posted by lcng123 > 2013-11-28 15:56 | Report Abuse

unexpected... mkh was failed by weakening of rupiah, foreign exchange loss of rm63mil, it's was equivalent to eps 18sen. exclusive of this loss, mkh's Q4 PBT will be stood at rm89.6mil and eps will be more than 20sen, annualised eps more than 40sen

Posted by anbz > 2013-11-28 15:59 | Report Abuse

lol free fall

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-11-28 16:02 | Report Abuse

I opine The CEO(Chen) has integrity problem. Since he knew the pending result is not favorable on plantation segment, he should not have an interview and talk great about his plantation. He painted a false picture to mislead investors. A high integrity leader knows how to manage the sensitivity of timing. If he accepts interview only now, then he can avoid all confusion and misleading. If MKH is listed in Wall Street, he will be questioned.

Posted by Aero1 > 2013-11-28 16:22 | Report Abuse

MKh shows typical plantation company symptom .. when USD up, profits are hit as they borrow in USD. I guess it is just one of the business risks.
Look at MKH's earnings potential and capacity. MKH generated operating cash flow which was 5.7 times more than last year or RM109 million. This enabled them to substantially finance the investing activities amounted to close to RM200 million. In fact its gearing has dropped from 63% to 55%. I guess MKH is down to earth for not proposing any dividend.
Now MKH's shares are being traded below its NTA of RM2.72 per share.

Posted by anbz > 2013-11-28 16:24 | Report Abuse

big discount..whoever has money must come buy MKH and MKH warrant!!!!!! now

Posted by Aero1 > 2013-11-28 16:27 | Report Abuse

bsngpg .. I think it is more of an accounting issue here. Alex Chen does not care about accounting. If you ask me, Q3 should have accounted for some of the forex loss. How can the loss only appeared in Q4, not logical.

Posted by anbz > 2013-11-28 16:29 | Report Abuse

ala bsngpg...u sudah jual..u cakap pun sudah terbalik..haha tomorrow limit up man ...the currency losses are unrealised...because it's the money they keep in indonesian bank ..in rupiah...there's no problem...because the money is used in indonesia operation...if they want to have a new machinery ..they will just use money from here...but what is in indonesian bank...can be used for what has been scheduled for the ir project there......unrealised...tomorrow people understand...it may limit up..haha

Posted by lcng123 > 2013-11-28 16:29 | Report Abuse

the company said the loss in foreign exchange due to their plantation debt is in RM and USD currency (1usd = 9,700 rupiah in 1 Jan 2013 to 11,900 rupiah in 28 Nov 2013) . how about their sales of cpo and palm kernel ? what is the currency they are dealing with ?

Posted by Aero1 > 2013-11-28 16:34 | Report Abuse

lcng .. from your analysis eps should climb more than 40 sen next year. This company has been historically accorded with PE 8. Will anyinvestment bank tag TP of RM3.60 (45 x 8)?

Posted by anbz > 2013-11-28 16:35 | Report Abuse

positive

Posted by Aero1 > 2013-11-28 16:35 | Report Abuse

Alex Chen is bullish so do I..

Posted by anbz > 2013-11-28 16:43 | Report Abuse

aero u are right aero1
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1475645

NET PROFIT UP 38.6% TO RM103.4 MILLION FOR FY 2013

Net profit attributable to shareholders excluding
foreign exchange losses of RM67.7 million surged by 96.4% to RM151.6 million

that's if without the currency losses it is RM151.6 million

Posted by anbz > 2013-11-28 16:48 | Report Abuse

32.97 cents cummulatively compared to previous year 26.12 cents

AND THAT IS AFTER BONUS ISSUE

increase even after bonus issue....can u name any company like this...with increse in profit after bonus issues? mah sing ? huayang? glomac? or spsetia? none bro

Posted by lcng123 > 2013-11-28 16:58 | Report Abuse

if you read the financial statement under B5(i), out of rm63mil foreign exchange loss, rm50mil is unrealised. look at the asset of plantation sector, in Q3, the balance of asset is rm425mil, but is Q4 the balance sharp drop to rm387mil. this is some sort of asset fair value calculation with exchange rate conversion (rupiah to rm), and it's unrealised. this loss may turn to gain in next quarter if rupiah become stronger against rm and usd. in fact and frankly speaking, mkh doing business excellent in Q4 especially property development sector. we should support mkh.

Posted by anbz > 2013-11-28 16:59 | Report Abuse

and indonesian currency is now at the bottom...next year sure will up ...then will mkh will boom...40 cents..is no more..50 cents profit will come

Posted by anbz > 2013-11-28 17:00 | Report Abuse

tomorrow limit up!!!

Posted by anbz > 2013-11-28 17:03 | Report Abuse

what i mean by

is there any other company like MKH with

increAse in profit after bonus issues? mah sing ? huayang? glomac? or spsetia? none bro

(is profit per share)

tomorrow limit up!!!