Posted by SJSOON > 2013-12-31 11:28 | Report Abuse

Hi, Icng123. the management can do nothing to deal with the currency exchange rate but only though hedging in the currency forwards market. This is really a knotty problem that concerns every export-oriented company. However, as a fundamental investor, I don't think the exchange rate issue is the most critical problem to the overall performance of the company. The major issue should be the business problem. I admit and agree with you that the the loss incurred by exchange rate change will erode the profit earned. However, price is charged in USD term in international trade. Therefore, when the palm oil price rebound, it means that the revenue goes up accordingly. The impact of exchange rate should not be exaggerated in this case. Also, the US implements a gradual approach to reduce QE, not an immediate cold-turkey approach. The latter will have led to exchange rate overshooting (also crisis) but this approach is already denied by the Fed. The former will gradually lead the market expectation about the exchange rate change to be in line with its actual change. Yes, USD will appreciate gradually but the stable exchange rate movement can enable the company to take effective measure to cope with it, like forwards, which can not be done if immediate QE scale-back is carried out. .

Posted by lcng123 > 2013-12-31 11:54 | Report Abuse

sjsoon, yes i do agree with you, thanks for your comments.

Posted by iafx > 2013-12-31 12:15 | Report Abuse

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kenangaresearch/43925.jsp

Posted by Aero1 > 2013-12-31 21:14 | Report Abuse

To contact the reporter on this story: Jeanette Rodrigues in Mumbai at jrodrigues26@bloomberg.net
By Jeanette Rodrigues Dec 26, 2013 1:50 PM GMT+0800

Deutsche Bank Sees Asian Comeback as Pimco Positive

Taiwan’s dollar and the Indonesian rupiah are forecast to lead a recovery in Asian currencies next year as attention shifts to the region’s growth potential and away from the reduction in U.S. monetary stimulus.

The Taiwanese currency will climb 2.4 percent by end-2014, while the rupiah will start reversing this year’s 20 percent loss by rising 1.7 percent, Bloomberg surveys of at least 18 analysts show. South Korea’s won is seen up 1.8 percent, China’s yuan 1.4 percent and the Thai baht 1.1 percent. The forecasts point to a rebound from the Bloomberg-JPMorgan Asia Dollar Index (ADXY)’s 2.2 percent drop this year, its biggest since 2008.

Taiwan’s potential export gains from a global economic pickup and Indonesia’s yield advantage over most of Asia are adding to the appeal of their currencies as Deutsche Bank AG, the world’s biggest foreign-exchange trader, says the region offers the best growth prospects in 2014. The Federal Reserve’s decision last week to start cutting its monthly bond buying has mostly been priced into Asian exchange rates, setting the stage for advances, Societe Generale SA said.

“We haven’t seen any toxic reaction to the Fed statement, there’s been no bloodbath,” Benoit Anne, the London-based head of emerging-market strategy at SocGen, said in a Dec. 20 phone interview. “When investors come back to work in January, they’re going to realize there’s a huge window of opportunity to go long emerging-market assets.”

Pimco’s Optimism

Pacific Investment Management Co., the world’s largest manager of bond funds, and Deutsche Bank say Asia will receive a boost from a recovery in developed markets next year. The region’s emerging economies will grow 6.5 percent in 2014, outpacing the 5.1 percent expansion of developing nations around the world and 2 percent for advanced countries, the Washington-based International Monetary Fund forecast in October.

Asian currencies will hand investors a 2 percent return in 2014, while counterparts in the Europe, Middle East and Africa region will gain 4.5 percent and Latin America’s will lose 1 percent, Deutsche Bank predicts.

“Emerging markets are maturing,” Deutsche Bank analysts including New York-based Drausio Giacomelli, wrote in a Dec. 19 report. For growth, “Asia remains best placed.”

The Taiwanese dollar will strengthen to NT$29.3 by the end of next year, according to the median of 18 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg, after reaching a four-month low of NT$30.06 yesterday. The currency has lost 3.2 percent this year, its biggest decline since it fell 5.7 percent in 2001.

Indonesian Rupiah

The rupiah, this year’s worst performer among 12 Asian peers tracked by Bloomberg, will climb to 12,000 per dollar by the end of 2014, from 12,200, a separate survey predicts. The currency tumbled to a five-year low of 12,260 on Dec. 23.

China’s yuan and the South Korean won will probably perform better than peers in coming months, while the outlook for Malaysia’s ringgit is improving, according to Manik Narain, an emerging-market strategist at UBS AG.

Concerns remain about India’s rupee, which fell to a record low of 68.845 per dollar in August, and the rupiah, he said. The rupee will end next year at 62 per dollar, from 61.98 today, according to another poll.

With the exception of China and South Korea, “we are not forecasting foreign-exchange appreciation in Asia,” London-based Narain said in a Dec. 20 phone interview. “We are particularly worried about India and Indonesia still.”

India and Indonesia will be the only nations among Asia’s 10 biggest economies to run current-account deficits in 2014, Deutsche Bank estimated in report dated Dec. 19.

Posted by JXRepcoBuffet > 2014-01-02 10:29 | Report Abuse

MKH kick lai liao....

Posted by Aero1 > 2014-01-02 10:50 | Report Abuse

EPS should be more than 40 sen this year and with historical PE of more than 8 .. TP 3.60
Happy investing and happy new year!

Posted by iafx > 2014-01-02 10:55 | Report Abuse

not stable, months already touched +-2.77 average then flushed down... disturbing pattern, becareful.

Posted by bsngpg > 2014-01-02 12:29 | Report Abuse

吾系呱！RM5.40? 吓死人眛？

HwangDBS: MKH Bhd; Buy@RM2.62, Price target@RM5.40; Diamond in the rough

Fastest-growing yet cheapest plantation proxy. Largest beneficiary of value-enhancing MRT stations in Kajang. Multi-year re-rating on the horizon, with deep value proposition at 5x FY15F PE. Initiate coverage with BUY rating and RM5.40 SOP-derived TP, implying 101% upside

Posted by Aero1 > 2014-01-02 13:54 | Report Abuse

At RM5.40 the market cap of MKH will be around RM1.7 bil. The plantation 15,000 ha is already worth more than RM1 bil (RM70k per mature ha).

Posted by lcng123 > 2014-01-02 15:10 | Report Abuse

mkh hits 2.77 now.

Posted by Aero1 > 2014-01-02 15:12 | Report Abuse

I think can leverage .. I am buying the warrants. :)

Posted by Tessa Joseph > 2014-01-02 15:18 | Report Abuse

i heard its going to 3.00 rgt

Posted by kenken85 > 2014-01-02 15:58 | Report Abuse

close 2.80 today?

Posted by Tessa Joseph > 2014-01-02 16:05 | Report Abuse

yup i think the warrant better :)

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2014-01-02 16:39 | Report Abuse

Wah ! Someone goreng kao kao.... Ha ha ha

Posted by lcng123 > 2014-01-02 16:43 | Report Abuse

kenanga tp is 3.05

Posted by aiman168 > 2014-01-02 16:46 | Report Abuse

ini yg buat kajang 2 tu kan?betul ke

Posted by Aero1 > 2014-01-02 16:50 | Report Abuse

Ya. Macam mana kajang 2 progress?

Posted by lcng123 > 2014-01-02 16:53 | Report Abuse

not only kajang 2, currently mkh also develop kajang east and sham alam hillpark. for kajang east, they just launch dec 2013 and for sham alam hillpark, pines is fully sold out. they are now open for sale for cherry and olive.

Posted by aiman168 > 2014-01-02 16:59 | Report Abuse

wallawei... sebelah mrt tu...

Posted by kelvinongbk > 2014-01-02 17:07 | Report Abuse

latest TP already 5.4...so there is much room for growth....tomorrow will continue uptrend...strongly...

Posted by Aero1 > 2014-01-02 17:10 | Report Abuse

I'm refering to kajang 2 progress. It is a project with highest GDV of 2.6 bil. Ada apa update?

Posted by racktorick > 2014-01-02 18:05 | Report Abuse

2.83 ~ 5.40 ???

Posted by 2862862 > 2014-01-02 20:26 | Report Abuse

no need worry any TP just hold ya, more to come :)

Posted by 2862862 > 2014-01-02 20:29 | Report Abuse

Check my posting :)

Stock: [MKH]: MKH BERHAD

Sep 12, 2013 09:06 PM | Report Abuse

I keep collecting the MKH-WA :) wait it hit RM 5. LoL

Posted by Aero1 > 2014-01-03 09:15 | Report Abuse

Hi, anyone can share HwangDBS research report.

Posted by lching > 2014-01-03 09:16 | Report Abuse

walao!!!!

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2014-01-03 09:26 | Report Abuse

$3 coming.... Ha ha

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2014-01-03 10:18 | Report Abuse

my mid term TP $3 reached today but no staying power !! Still bullish in short term

Posted by cockroach > 2014-01-03 10:30 | Report Abuse

Missed the boat.... too bad

Posted by cockroach > 2014-01-03 10:33 | Report Abuse

should buy more during 2.62

Posted by Aero1 > 2014-01-03 10:56 | Report Abuse

Still not missing the boat. With more future plantation profit, its share price will mirror Fima Corp's trend. Happy investing!

Posted by cockroach > 2014-01-03 11:00 | Report Abuse

Market in bear. Now start to pull back. Sold out mine. Waiting lower entry signal again.

Posted by Aero1 > 2014-01-03 11:14 | Report Abuse

HwandDBS says plantation is worth 1 bil or 2.9 RM/share based on DCF. This matches what IOI paid for its stake in Unico.

Posted by Aero1 > 2014-01-03 11:24 | Report Abuse

If this stands, MKH's property assets and others have no value.

Posted by AK $$ > 2014-01-03 11:28 | Report Abuse

Aero1 What do you mean by no value.

Posted by Aero1 > 2014-01-03 11:36 | Report Abuse

DBS says plantation asset is worth 2.90 per share or 1 bil .. look at the share price now.

Posted by AK $$ > 2014-01-03 11:39 | Report Abuse

Aero 1 did you also include the property business

Posted by lcng123 > 2014-01-03 11:46 | Report Abuse

AK $$, what aero1 going to say is mkh is undervalued. if plantation itself already worth 1bil (rm2.9/share), at current market price of rm2.93, look like property sector no value. it is unbelievable.

Posted by Aero1 > 2014-01-03 11:48 | Report Abuse

AK the 2.90 per share only for plantation assets. If the property business is included, TP 5.4 for MKH according to DBS.

Posted by Mark Bird > 2014-01-03 11:51 | Report Abuse

Alright, give 5 reasons why MKH will go up this year

Posted by Aero1 > 2014-01-03 11:55 | Report Abuse

Pick up interest in the warrants .. good way to leverage the potential of MKH.

Posted by AK $$ > 2014-01-03 12:00 | Report Abuse

tks guys. I misread Aero1 statement.

Posted by lcng123 > 2014-01-03 12:05 | Report Abuse

a lot of articles reported by analysts that mkh will do excellent in year 2014 for both property and plantation, don't you read these?

Posted by JXRepcoBuffet > 2014-01-03 12:06 | Report Abuse

sifu 逍遥子 and the rest of sifu, correct me if i'm wrong. Just an estimation.

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2014-01-03 12:21 | Report Abuse

JXRepcoBuffet, I m not a sifu, I m just a ikan bills trying to make some kopi $$$ from share market. I just share some info. that I think might be relevant or useful. Still learning everyday.

Happy Trading !

Posted by Madam YS > 2014-01-03 12:22 | Report Abuse

fulamak semalam bukan main lagi naik hehehe

Posted by AK $$ > 2014-01-03 12:31 | Report Abuse

LCNG123 I did but Aero 1 statement threw me off. Thot he said no value to be added anymore. Just checking with him whether I missed something.

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2014-01-03 12:39 | Report Abuse

Personally I think for this coming FY, MKH should be able to produce EPS around $0.40 +/-, provided no major surprise in forex losses, stable CPO price and no major slow down in property market. Then TP of $3.5/$3.6 is rather realistic (with the PE 8 - 9) !

Anyway just my 2 cents, i might be wrong !!

Posted by SJSOON > 2014-01-03 13:44 | Report Abuse

Previous post made by kcfan:
時間將證明，在印尼東加里曼丹的近4萬英畝(約1萬6000公頃)優質油棕園，將成為美景集團(MKH，前Metro Kajang)皇冠上的寶石。
美景靠產業發展起家，在產業領域奮鬥了二十多年，成績斐然，但每股淨利，始終在20仙水平，徘徊不前，無法取得突破。
該公司創辦人也就是美景執行董事主席拿督曾貴秋知道，地皮越來越難找，也越來越貴，單靠產業要在業績上更上一層樓，談何容易。
看好油棕業潛能
經過深思熟慮，他認為油棕業潛能無限，於是5年前就鎖定油棕為發展對象，全力以赴，尋找土地種油棕，皇天不負苦心人，他的努力，在2008年取得突破，成功的在該年1月18日，買到了東加里曼丹一段近1萬6000公頃(近4萬英畝)極適合油棕生長的土地，地契為35年，可再延長25年，使他圓了進軍棕油業的夢。
經過4年的拼搏，克服無數困難，一個生機蓬勃的美麗油棕園，終於在東加里曼丹的荒原上冒現。
由於行事低調，行軍秘密，只在每年的年報中簡報進展，所以，這項計劃了解的人不多，投資界也不洞悉其盈利潛能，使美景的股價，只是跟隨股市大勢，未有特出表現。
實際上，在2008及2009年這兩年中所種植的2萬3475英畝，已果實累累，首間每小時提煉60公噸鮮果串的榨油廠，已於最近落成，作好迎接大量棕果的準備。
媲美吉隆坡甲洞油棕園
以4年的時間(2008-11)完成1萬5000公頃(3萬7000英畝，其餘為基本設施及少量不適合種植的廢地)的種植工作，總投資額約3億令吉，預料還要投資5000萬令吉，以進一步完善設施，這項計劃的最終投資額將達到3億5000萬令吉。今後的工作是把油棕園管理好，隨著油棕逐步成熟，盈利將與日俱增。
22年需翻種
油棕種下後，第三年開始結果，但果實不多，仍無利可圖，產量逐年增加，到第五年盈利開始出現，盛產期為6-18，即第六年到第18年之間產量保持顛峰狀態約12年，過後產量將走下坡，通常到22年就需要翻種。
美景的1萬5000公頃油棕園(只算種植面積)，到盛產時期，每年能賺多少錢？
決定油棕園盈利的因素很多，主要的為原棕油價格，每公頃產量，棕果煉油率，成本等。
美景的油棕園，地質屬上乘，足以媲美吉隆甲洞的油棕園。我們不妨根據吉隆甲洞的油棕園盈利表現，窺探美景油棕園將來對美景的盈利貢獻潛能。
盈利潛能需考量成本
根據吉隆甲洞最近出爐的2011年報，該公司去年每公頃成熟油棕的鮮果產量為22.17公噸，原棕油提煉率為21.44%，每公噸原棕油的生產成本為1066令吉，以每公噸2958令吉的售價，每公噸淨利為9783令吉(以此申算，如果每公噸售價為3000令吉的話，每公頃的淨利為9922令吉)。
美景的油棕園屬上乘，在產量和煉油率方面可媲美吉隆甲洞，但在成本方面，由於是在印尼，將高過吉隆甲洞，每公噸原棕油的全國生產成本約為1300令吉，美景的成本應該與全國的平均數接近，即每公噸1300令吉。
現在讓我們根據以下標準來計算美景油棕園盛產期的盈利潛能：
每公頃鮮果產量：22公噸。
煉油率：21%。
每公頃原棕油產量：4.62公噸
每公噸生產成本：1300令吉

美景每股淨利增加額是根據美景以10送1發紅股後的實收資本2億9000萬股計算。
以上是單單油棕園對公司的盈利貢獻。必須指出的，這是油棕園盛產期的盈利潛能。
由於原棕油價波動激烈，受氣候及其他因素影響，鮮果產量可能超過或低過22公噸，成本也可能與1300令吉有出入，所以，實際的盈利可能與上述預測有相當大的差別。
上述數字，只是作為參考而已。
美景集團業務分三類
⑴油棕：如上述。
⑵產業。
⑶建築承包。
地庫足供​​10年​​發展
在產業方面，該公司目前的地庫足供10年​​的發展，一路來，產業為該公司帶來每股約20仙的盈利，預料未來數年，仍能保持此紀錄。
必須指出的是，該公司所擁有的地皮，是在產業暴漲前買進，目前價格最少已上漲了一倍。
輕易保持過去盈利
尤其是Kajang 2的地皮，現在肯定已增值超過一倍以上。
由於地皮買價低廉，而產業價格已暴漲數十巴仙，故可以取得比數年前更高的賺率。
該公司產業部要保持過去的盈利，應是輕而易舉的事。
在建築承包方面，該公司最近取得一項6億7500萬令吉的合約，將依約(IJOK)的一段550英畝屬於電訊局的土地，發展為一個新的住宅區，550英畝可建排屋5500間。
這項合約每年價值為​​1億3500萬令吉，以10%的賺率計算，每年將可以為該公司賺進1350萬令吉，每股淨利將增加4.65仙。
讀者可以根據該公司每年從油棕業、產業和建築業的盈利貢獻，計算出該公司中長期的每股淨利，從而預測股價趨向。
必須指出的是，在短、中期，產業和建築業仍為主要的盈利來源，在中、長期，油棕業將扮演更重要的角色。
油棕業將使美景集團，由一隻中規中矩的產業公司，蛻變成具有巨大潛能的成長股。
06/05/2012 17:30