Stocks on the move… TDM (TDM MK) – BUY BUY with a target price of RM1.19. The share price has gradually recovered and successfully breached the psychological support of RM1.00 yesterday. Given the higher trading volume of 33.7m recorded as well as a bullish crossover in MACD, we expect further continuation towards our revised projected target of RM1.19 in the near term. Matrix Concepts Holding (MCH MK) – BUY BUY with a target price of RM3.58. Yesterday’s 12-sen surge on the back of a higher trading volume of 1.6m shares suggests a genuine breakout, thus an upward continuation is likely. Given the bullish crossover in the MACD, we expect the share price to move towards our projected target of RM3.58 in the near term. Suria Capital Holdings (SURIA MK) – BUY BUY with a target price of RM2.79. The share price breached the 52-weeks high of RM2.47 yesterday. A positive closing above RM2.47 would ensure another up-leg towards RM2.79 in the near term. Alternatively, a failure to close above the immediate resistance could place the share price lower on the back of profit-taking expectations.
YESTERDAY UOB KAY HIAN RECOMMENDATION,,,SURIA IS MENTION HERE..
About the stock: Name : Suria Capital Holdings Berhad Bursa Code : SURIA CAT Code : 6521 Market Cap : 283.3 52 Week High/Low : 2.63/1.43 3-m Avg. Daily Vol. : 316,421.9 Free Float (%) : 41.3% Beta vs. KLCI : 0.8 Comments: SURIA’s technical picture looks attractive after it surged to a record high with rising buying volume after the group recorded an 11% YoY gain in net profit for 9M13 on the back of higher revenue contribution from port operations. Technical-wise, the share price is likely to ride another bullish wave after it marginally broke out above the previous high @RM2.62 with bullish “Marubozu” candlesticks yesterday, which suggest buying interest remains strong as exhibited by a strengthening RSI. The overhead resistance is capped at the RM2.90-RM2.96 region, based on Fibonacci Projection and objective measurement. Meanwhile, the underlying support is pegged at RM2.37.
Key Support & Resistance level Resistance : RM2.90 (R1) RM2.96 (R2) RM3.09 (R3) Support : RM2.62 (S1) RM2.37 (S2) RM2.15 (S3) Outlook : Neutral-bullish What does indicator says: RSI : Positive Stochastic : Positive MACD : Positive Trend : Uptrend What should you do: Strategy : Not Rated Current Share Price : RM2.63 Fundamental Call KNK : - Consensus : -
Suria operates 8 ports in Sabah.. It has a market cap of RM750mil compared to Westports RM12bil. Westport operates a busy container port and Suria smaller regional ports. The potential over the next few years is tremendous. The moat is amazing.
It is trading below NTA. The kicker in share price will be developing the prime land it owns around its ports which it has recently entered into a JV with an established property developer.
Suria Capital (Suria)’s main core business is operating the eight major ports in Sabah, namely A. Kota Kinabalu Port, B. Sapangar Bay Oil Terminal, C. Sandakan Port, D. Lahad Datu Port, E.Kunak Port, F. Kudat Port, G. Tawau Port and H. Sapangar Bay Container Port.
The group also operates other businesses, such as equipment supply and maintenance, logistics and bunkering services, contract and engineering, and ferry terminal operations.
Suria is looking for opportunities to diversify its operations into the property and tourism sectors. Around 15% shares in SURIA holding by Unit Trusts Funds.
1. Beat expectations. 1.1 Suria’s 9M13 core net earnings of MYR46.1m (+4.5% y-o-y) were stronger than our and consensus’ expectations. 9M13 earnings reached 84% of our previous 2013 estimate, as expenses at its ports operation declined 3% y-o-y, mainly attributed to lower repair and maintenance costs. 1.2 During 9M13, the group’s total cargo throughput ticked up 2% y-o-y on the back of higher exports of palm oil, while container volume dipped 2% y-o-y.
2. Adjusting earnings and valuation. 2.1 Following the stronger-thanexpected earnings, we lift our earnings forecasts by 15% and 16% for 2013-14 respectively. 2.2 We also lift our DCF valuation parameters after attending a meeting with Suria’s Chief Financial Officer Ng Kiat Min.
3.Maintain BUY, FV MYR3.50. 3.1 We are still upbeat on Suria’s outlook as the potential growth from the development of the Jesselton Quay remains positive. 3.2 All in, we continue to believe that Suria is a counter that possesses strong fundamentals with limited downside risk and strong growth potential. 3.3 Hence, we maintain our BUY recommendation and FV of MYR3.50, after tweaking our DCF valuation. This translates into an implied forward P/E of 15.3x, which is lower than the industry average of 16.6x.
Container is the largest revenue stream but liquid & dry cargos are the main earnings contributor.
We like Suria on 3 investment angles, i.e. (1) deep discount to its intrinsic value which is underpinned by its port operations with stable cash flow generation and JV consideration from the development of Jesselton Quay, (2) further upside from development of remaining landbank at KK port, and (3) limited earnings risk as earnings trend is currently at inflection point with multiple positive catalysts on the horizon.
Deep discount to its intrinsic value which is underpinned by its stable and predictable cash flow.
FCFE-based valuation of RM956.4m implies 41% upside from its existing market cap.
Market has yet to fully price in the potential of its property division.
SBC is responsible for all the costs and matters relating to the 16.25-acre waterfront development named Jesselton Quay, which consists of commercial suites, retail mall, hotel, and office towers. The said project will be developed over 8 years from 2014 to 2021. On the other hand, Suria as the landowner shall assist and facilitate in the implementation of the project. Suria will receive a minimum return of 18% of the total GDV, subject to a minimum guaranteed amount of RM324m which will be received progressively over the next 8 years.
Jesselton Quay rising to be an iconic waterfront project in KK, Sabah.
As an EPP identified by federal government, Jesselton Quay is adjacent to other catalytic projects.
As one of the entry point projects (EPPs) identified by the federal government, Jesselton Quay is adjacent to other catalytic projects such as Sabah International Convention Centre, KK International Cruise Terminal (operated by Suria), and Mah Sing-Yayasan Sabah’s Kota Kinabalu Convention City. Hence, we see great chance of success for Jesselton Quay with potential GDV upgrade in future. Based on the total net floor area (NFA) of 1.84m square feet for the entire project, the average selling price is approximately RM1,000 psf.
Risk is low for Suria, given that 65% of the JV consideration is practically secured.
Further upside from development of remaining landbank at KK port.
we like Suria’s limited earnings risk and believe its earnings are at inflection point in FY13 as we foresee, (1) logistic and bunkering services to turnaround from FY14 onwards, (2) potential port tariff adjustments which could result in an overall 30% increase in port revenue if all the proposed tariffs are accepted and approved by the Sabah state government, and (3) no more earnings drag from contract & engineering division as the group has almost completed (98%) its major project, Kimanis Power Plant as at Oct 2013. Going forward, we anticipate the contract & engineering division to have neutral impact to the group.
Tie-up with Petro Summit likely to boost the division revenue and eliminate the business risk for Suria.
Port tariff adjustments on the cards Another earnings driver which has not been factored in in our FCFE valuation model is port tariff adjustment. According to management, a proposal on a new tariff structure has been submitted to the Sabah State Government for review and approval. If the state government adopts all the proposals under the new tariff structure, Suria’s port revenue could see a 30% boost overnight. While management opines that the Sabah State Government is not likely to approve and adopt all the proposals stated under the new tariff structure, it will be a bonus to Suria even if a lower tariff hike is approved.
Sabah’s economic growth is mainly driven by tourism, palm oil and oil & gas industry.
As the largest palm oil producing state in Malaysia, Sabah Ports appear to be the direct beneficiary to the industry growth.
Eco-tourism industry also plays a significant role in Sabah GDP growth. 1. Apart from palm oil industry, Sabah eco-tourism industry plays a significant role in state GDP growth. Over the past 4 years, tourist arrivals in Sabah have grown at a CAGR of 5.7%, bringing direct foreign fund inflows of RM22.2bn to the state. This is higher than the nation’s historical 4-year CAGR of 3.2%.
2. We believe the Land Below The Wind, which is blessed with natural beauties such as crystal blue water & white sandy beaches, rich rainforests, and the breath-taking Mount Kota Kinabalu, will continue to be one of the most attractive tourist hot spots in the region. Going forward, we anticipate the eco-tourism industry to remain robust with particular strong years in 2014 and 2015, which have been designated as Visit Malaysia Year and Year of Festival respectively. During the first seven months of 2013, tourist arrivals in Sabah have grown by 13.5% y-o-y. Suria as the exclusive port operator in Sabah, will indirectly benefit from rising domestic consumptions.
the development of oil & gas industry in Sabah will provide long term growth to Suria.
we believe the development of oil and gas industry in Sabah will serve as a long term driver for Suria, once more investments flow from the upstream to downstream such as petrochemical plants, which could attract more investment in the manufacturing industry that could drive the port throughputs as export activities increase. For example, Suria benefits from the commencement of Sabah Ammonia Urea Project since mid of 2013, as the group has been reappointed for the heavy lifting and shuttling of heavy and oversize cargoes within KK port, as well as at the project site in Sipitang.
Anticipate stronger state GDP growth going forward, as we see stronger commitment from the federal government.
Going forward, we foresee Sabah state GDP to grow stronger than the past 3 years as we see stronger commitment from the federal government to improve the state amenities and welfare post 13GE. Among the initiatives unveiled in Budget 2014, we believe that :
(1) lobster rearing project with multinational company at Semporna, (2) upgrading works at Kota Kinabalu Airport and Sandakan Airport, and (3) continuous budget allocation for the development of agropolitan project and oil palm-based industries in the Sabah Development Corridor, to have a significant multiplier impact to the state GDP growth, and hence, Suria’s port operation.
Palm oil output drop in Sabah Given that Suria’s port earnings are highly sensitive to palm oil exports from Sabah, any surprise contraction in palm oil output in Sabah would be a major risk to our cash flow projection. Factors that could affect palm oil output include (1) bad weather, (2) tree stress, and (3) labour shortage in the palm oil industry. Having said that, we believe our assumption of 1.5% y-o-y growth for palm oil export is reasonable and achievable, as we believe replanting activities have eased in Sabah.
Over the long term, we project 5% and 1.5% throughputs growth p.a. for container and overall cargo.
we believe the growth rate to be better at mid-single digit (5-7% p.a.), mainly driven by (1) better cost efficiency as the port operating efficiencies improve due to facilities upgrade and higher utilisation rate, (2) declining depreciation charge starting from FY17 as major capex incurred in FY14 and FY15, (3) declining financing cost as borrowings decline in line with debt repayment schedule which will be fully repaid by 2019.
For FY15, earnings growth likely to be lower due to operating lease hike and higher depreciation.
Solid cash flow and decent dividend
While earnings growth seems unexciting at mid-single digit, we see attractive and strong cash flow generation for the remaining port concession period. Over the past 4 years, Suria achieved an average net operating cash flow of RM126m p.a., even though it has only recorded an average annual core net profit of RM55m over the same period.
This was mainly due to the claims for investment tax allowance at the rate of 100% on capex incurred between 1 Sept 2004 and 31 Aug 2009. As at FY12, there was still RM276m unutilised investment allowance and capital allowance. This is more than enough to offset the income tax payable by the group up to FY15, based on our estimate.
As such, we anticipate the group continues to generate strong operating cash flow of RM117m and RM122m in FY14 and FY15 respectively. For FY13, operating cash flow is projected to come lower at RM46m as the group sets to pay the remaining land premium of RM71m. From 2016 to 2034 (the remaining concession period), Suria is expected to generate operating cash flow of RM106-160m p.a..
Currently, Suria has a formal dividend policy of 35% payout ratio. This implies a dividend yield of 2.8% and 3.0% for FY14 and FY15. With anticipation of strong free cash flow post FY15, we believe Suria could raise its dividend payout ratio in FY16. Assuming 100% payout ratio thereafter, dividend yield could hit 9% in FY16.
In view of attractive overall return of 43.4%, we initiate coverage on Suria with a high conviction STRONG BUY recommendation. Going forward, we foresee further upside potential to our target price which could be catalysed by; 1) unveiling of the development plan for the remaining 7 acres of land at KK port; 2) port tariff adjustment which is now pending the review and approval of the Sabah state government; and 3) stronger than expected contribution from its logistic and bunkering division following the collaboration with Petro Summit.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
hooi
1,773 posts
Posted by hooi > 2012-12-11 09:01 | Report Abuse
Bought Suria at 1.47