Anwar / Lim K Siang hold nearly all Bursa Index link stocks ( Bursa collapsed) FGV has 1 million voters has dropped from 4.50 to 1.75--Umno cannot help ( EPF & LTH are both Sellers--what a bundle of idiots ). Roger don't even know how to count ( 1M RGB X 0.16=160K) Just small change. Of course, Roger didn't buy eventhough he supply buying Tips ( as i said really Kiasu person )
I'm 99.9% cash since November 2014. Cannot find anything good to buy cos I think the market is going thru a downtrend that could last 2-3 yrs. Just my 2 sen.
stkoay, I have similar feeling and that's why I park my most of my money in Puncak which is supposed to be cash rich and priced at discount to cash. Never realize that it can be this low a discount though...
sell on news!!..bad management company..=X they will simply use the money and few years later, cash will reduce significantly, they can simply release acct of failed investment, but actually those money enter their wallet slowly..you know what i meant..stay away from such mgmt company
sigh...no time to see today. drop back to original price. Din manage to trade for a big mac. In face now sell rugi few big mac because transaction cost
kahhoeng. Agree with you that it is trading at a big discount to its cash. Historically, Rozali does reward its shares holder.....maybe u just need to b patience. jacklintan dear. not pandai la, when comes to investment it's all luck......maybe u can say that luck is with stkoay.....hahaha. Wish all will have Good Luck also. Happy Investing.
Kahhoeng's Thus, net cash after taking out debt outstanding = RM 1,256.817/453 = RM 2.77 per share using 30 Sep 15 bals is largely correct Look like simple calculation bt somehow analyst got it wrong is it? Thank u
benblurblur, err.. not sure how the other analysts got the number wrong. I wrote in to CIMB and I was given a revised figure without taking into consideration that a sukuk converted into shares will result in a debt reduction (irrelevant now given sukuk has been bought back.) Despite errors made in his response, I was only told that 'depending on how its interpreted' (which is why I assume he has got the number wrong.)
Affin once suggested cash proceed for the water asset disposal is 2.91. Though, the number is highly misleading. Affin assumed the cash proceed of 1555.3 million is divided by an enlarged share base, i.e., 534 million shares. The valuation is raw and misleading too. First, the enlarged share base will result in additional fresh fund of 40 million from warrant conversion proceed and debt reduction of 160 million (or 141 million from balance sheet's perspective - converted sukuk has 2 components, debt portion and equity portion.) Second, the write up has failed to recognize the 392 million cash it has on its balance sheet (there's another short term investment of 11 million that's also ignored.)
All analysts pointed towards uncertainties in future business prospect. Well, I can't deny that. Though, based on its 9 month result, you would have realized that the losses from operation is only 6.16 millions, the rest are financial cost of 12.12 millions (cost of borrowing that's insignificant once sukuk is bought back and in net cash position,) depreciation and amortization of 14.51 millions (that's basically write down of asset that has no impact on cash flow,) and net taxes of 2.64 millions (or gross taxes of 5 millions). Net cash of 1.25 billions that Puncak is holding right now should generate 37 million interest income a year assuming a saving rate of 3%. I suppose that's more than enough to assume business losses in its o&g business.
Frankly, with a landbank of 280 acres in Kuala Selangor, a property development project of 5 - 10 years is feasible and profitable, beside high cash flow generating (the land is free with 1 - 1.5 million per acre cash value). Property project usually will yield net profit of at least an equivalent of its land value, thus 2 - 3 millions per acre. Assuming the project has a 10 years lifespan, that will generate 56 - 84 millions cash a year on average (28 acres a year x 2 - 3 millions per acre)!
If there's anything that I really worry would be is if Rozali will spend this money wisely, given tough o&g and plantation business environment. Both industries will face a tough time in coming 1 - 4 years, depending on how one interpret the commodity cycle (that would be another debatable analysis.)
I welcome any analysis that would offer me a new perspective.
What 53 million? If I were not wrong, Puncak investment in o&g is vessel support, don't think they are involved in other way. A more accurate picture is offered in the annual report, please go through ...
Puncak trading where below its cash level, despite after capital repayment !! Why leh ? a) Bcos current mkt condition is bearish b) Investor do not trust Rozali c)Investor perceive the business that puncak intend to invest with the xtra cash are lousy loh....!
Stockraider, I agree with your reasoning if analysts first STATED cash in hand post disposal, special dividend & redemption is RM 2.77 plus net long term asset of approximately RM 1.00 per share. Then, suggest a 60% discount to it's valuation is JUSTIFIABLE. I would be OK with that analysis then. My point is analysts have failed to offer fair and accountable analysis...
Benblurblur, no idea if the 53 million income is recurring or not. No idea if Kuala Selangor land could be fully developed. I have assumed the valuation of it's Kuala Selangor land based on Ecoworld venturing into that area too. It's an open question if Rozali will and can abuse the remaining cash. Our governance is better compared to 10 years ago, but there's a will, there's a way. I can only hope Rozali is a fair owner, given his willingness to share the special dividend...
But one thing for sure, Rozali is not very transparent or fair. 1. He didn't reveal the sukuk will be redeemed earlier. 2. He had yet to offer his business plan after the asset disposal, given changes in market environment. 3. He had yet to suggest if he would buy back shares given it's ridiculous price compared to what it's worth
Round lots are usually collected with no intention to sell (starting to collect by Big potato ) Go to see "match seller section" in the morning and afternoon section. Today many 10,000 done on match seller section---means buying (using RHB smarttrade )
Never mind let him cruise around as long as he pushed up Puncak share price by 2 cents every day. You think Rozali got puncak shares for Free--no he has bank loan and puncak shares were pledged as collateral.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
money888
430 posts
Posted by money888 > 2015-12-08 09:00 | Report Abuse
don't buy yet...wait 1.40 or lower...