fainted, luckily didn't buy any after last purchased at 1.48. How's that possible when net cash per share is at least 2.70 and yet price keeps falling?!?
babu, I have been holding this stock since mid of 2014 and added most early 2015. If you are referring to buy on margin as life support, well, count me in.
@kahhoeng, seriously I am clinging on to my Puncak shares. I also bought this on valuation, intend to hold with conviction, and no I will not sell out in desperation ......... as always, some will gloat over the temporary misalignment in price and call you stubborn. That's allright by me :) I am able to withstand the "cold spell" that sometimes get to us, illogical and crazy as this may sound ! Wish you and all holding this the wisdom to stay cool under the current circumstances : there is no need to panic if time is on your side !
Very well said babu. But if you believe in the 10 years cycle then should not buy stock now for long term. The previous 2 clashes was on 1997/98, KLCI at 268 points on 2-9-1998. In 2008 during US subprime, KLCI fell below 1000 points. Be cautious and Good Luck to all.
Puncak has got a big cash pile, right? This is an aspect worth taking note of when it comes to assessing a company's survival prospects in lean times. I agree with the general opinions here, and have also taken @stkoay's caution into account. I'm also encouraged by @hng33 coming in - he may often be in for the very short term but he's someone who does his homework when it comes to assessing the technical charts. I think I'm coming in too. But using only half of what I had planned for this counter. And having a stop loss set in case it goes down further.
Ha ha ha ! @stkoay I am not much of a believer in cycles, waves and all those Italian sounding retracements and fans ...... when it comes to belief, I'd rather stick with good old fundamentals and keep myself up-to-date with the market sentiments. Right now, it is pretty glum , pun intended ! Frankly, there isn't much you can do about it when the overall markets are all heading south. But, I wouldn't say that we "should not buy stocks now for long term". In fact, I would say now is the time you should be on a sharp lookout to buy "good" stocks at "cheap" price ! As to what is "good" and how much lower before it can be called "cheap" - I guess you will have to decide yourself :) It 's not easy but it can be done, the information are all out there : and when the markets turn and sentiments improve (as surely as the sun will rise again tomorrow from the eastern skies ) , then you will be smiling again !
Remember the sharp fall of August last year? Many people had sold off in panic. Some, rather late in the fall. Crude oil going down, ringgit depreciating, 1MDB etc. Buyers who saw value had emerged in dividend-paying stocks were mocked (for example Media Prima, which went close to 1.00). Many of these counters brought in capital returns of at least 30% just a couple of months later.
I certainly don't know how things would transpire in the coming days and weeks. It might be the beginning of a long slide, or things might actually start to pick up (even though at this very moment it doesn't look anywhere like it). My own belief is this: there will be sharp falls AND rebounds. In other words, volatility. This isn't good for genuine investors but it's something which traders and speculators look forward to.
There are ALWAYS opportunities in the stock market, as well as risks. I think it's a question of managing these - to have the courage to buy something after doing research, which includes taking the downside possibilities. And to cut loss quickly when things don't work out, PLUS to take profits and not linger too long. Hopefully, the all-important luck factor will also be with us - there are just too many variables which are beyond our ability to accurately know about and assess.
By the way, if you have a significant amount in the various counters, might not be a bad idea to have some sort of insurance in the form of put warrants. Unfortunately, the investment banks have issued only a few that are specific to individual counters. And the ex. prices are unattractive. The next best are the index-based put warrants, like FBMKLCI-H(something).
I had bought some lots of these. Not to speculate but to keep me from getting overly nervous and stressed out when the market suffers a fall. These put warrants would go up in price and thereby help mitigate the paper losses of the various counters. You will have to decide for yourselves how much money you are going to put in these put warrants. As a rule of thumb, I think 5-10% of one's portfolio value should be adequate. But if you are really worried and think the market will crash, then buy more. Regardless of how we think the market will perform in the coming days, it's a good thing to hedge.
I'm also buying back some. In time of turbulence, cash is king. I hope Rozali know how to use the cash wisely and invest in something that will be profitable.
Mat Cendana" Aren't the market is suffering the fall right now? Mind asking the statement when you said,
"But if you are really worried and think the market will crash, then buy more. Regardless of how we think the market will perform in the coming days, it's a good thing to hedge."
Mind share your thoughts? I wonder how far will the recession be this year 2016? Every tom and harry is naming year 2016, the darkest year. Scary isn't it?
Also,Stkoay: If every day u see i3investor.com and not doing any investing due to scare of the recession, even the money u safe in bank will also suffer depreciation of MYR.
@jacklintan: Something that I had read some time ago - if we look for everything to be good before we'd put any money in the stockmarket, the time will be... never. Because there will ALWAYS be something or other that is of concern. You have been in the market for some time, right? Just take any period from the past several years - 2014, 2013, 2011 - any year. Try to remember all the negative factors factors which had scared off investors. There were quite a few. Greece, for instance, which would come to `kacau' our market. Political tension, general elections in Malaysia and whatever else. And of course, August 2015. Before that was the crude oil slide (still going on). Now it's China, crude oil (again), strong dollar (again), Islamic State etc. Things will never be perfect.
But having said that, it won't do to throw all caution to the wind. We must create our own strategy, according to our own appetite for risk, experience and what we hope to achieve. With me, I'd divide the capital into a few categories, and allocate the money accordingly. First category are counters that pay a reasonable dividend. Rock-solid companies like Selangor Properties, Boustead and such. Whenever any that are on my list goes down significantly, I try to force myself to be brave and just buy. And then wait it out.
The second category are counters "that display strength". Either individually or its group. For instance, "Export-oriented" - the gloves makers, furniture etc. which have been doing well due to ringgit's depreciation. A few years ago, it was Oil & Gas. Before that was Plantation. Telcos would also have their day. But watch the technical indicators - if certain support levels don't hold, then it's time to say goodbye.
The third category is mixed. Including structured warrants and all the nonsensical donkey companies. But donkey or not, when something is going up, I'd want to have some shares in it :-)
And when it comes to managing capital - never put everything in stocks. Even if the money is meant to buy stocks. It's more prudent to have a significant amount of cash in hand. Right now, I'm committing just one-third for the time being. Should the market not go my way, I can take comfort that I still have two-thirds left (more when the cut-loss counters are sold). Don't be too hurried, even if we feel `good' about some counter. Nothing is guaranteed. When sentiments get better, can use another one-third to invest.
Mat Cendana: Thank you for your insights. It's enlightening to know fellows like yourself who are sharing selflessly your holdings the moment.
Markets are volatile and so does our life. Nothing is certain, I agree. Diversify your eggs in different baskets, I agree too.
Good dividend counters, I agree too.
Malaysia market sentiments are very much depending on the bigger boy players. If the investment bankers and fund managers not pushing the stocks, I am foreseeing the doom of the KLSE market. Despite news and wonders created everyday by the News and Announcement in Bursa, even the best fundamental companies is becoming a threat to my investment choices.
I space a bit of my time recently,attending Traders enthusiast promoting their trading cum training courses. 5000 per course? 3800 per course??? On top of the whole course, attendees are anticipating tips actually! Promoters, promote. Selling their trading softwares and I can tell some of you who make big ho har over here are in fact could be those who could have signed up the courses!
I want to say this out loud here. U came to promote your art of investing. 5000 is in your pocket. U give tips that the stocks will go up and it's a bullish stock. I got it. U are selling it asap the next day the respective stock is out in the market. U came and say, buy higher price when it's a bullish stock. Ok, I got it, BUT if it turn the other way round, u ask me to cut loss. Don't keep the stock. Move on with other stocks.
To those people who make lucrative money with their training packages with whatever training companies, please give a good thought that those u collaborated with have some integrity.
I read from a commentor earlier: Puncak is managed by bad company.
No more businesses with Puncak. BUT got loads of money for investment.
Question now is: What & When Mr Rozali will invest? He could be sipping his cocktail in Spain with 2 bikini girls by his side already, and u people still sit here sing song from 9 to 4.45pm everyday.
Nothing's wrong to agree with the FACT: 1. Puncak is not making any more business. 2. Market is deteriorating. 3. Puncak got cash
Those who are still investing in Puncak is in fact, you are BETTING with this company.And that includes me.
By the way, the "Buy more" in my earlier comment refers to put warrants. NOT ordinary shares, of course. Just in case some people read too quickly and misunderstand :-) Particularly the FBMKLCI-H puts that have reasonable life left (at least 3 months) left, AND selling at a reasonable premium.
But I do know many people don't use these index put warrants to hedge anything - they are just speculating Bursa's index will suffer a steep fall. Nothing wrong with that - different people have different ideas and strategies when it comes to TRYING to make money. And they had a roaring great time last August when these put warrants went up at least 100%. With my hedging strategy, it's for some peace of mind. We will sleep better when we know we are somewhat protected whereby our losses would be manageable.
One cold hard fact we must accept when it comes to public-listed companies - the controlling shareholder/s call ALL the shots. We minority shareholders are in just for the ride, and hopefully able to feast from their leftovers. At a luxury banquet, leftovers are still great actually, with delicious steak and lobster. If you drink, the leftover champagne and expensive cognac would still bomb you out, even if you are just salvaging.
With these companies, it's not how many hands are raised in support or objection against something but "the percentage" a hand represents. Most of us don't own even 0.5% of a counter - even when 100 combine, it's still insignificant. We can shout and scream but our opinions don't matter squat, unfortunately. Controlling shareholders putting their children, grandfather as directors...what can we do? That's how things are. Rather than "raging against the machine", I've decided to just reluctantly accept things when it comes to companies in Bursa.
Anyway, with Puncak, my thinking goes like this: 1) It may not control water in Selangor anymore but it has a respectable cash pile. 2) The controlling shareholder (Rozali) seems to be in the power-that-be good books. Federal and state. And he has connections, which is very important. 3) It's also in his benefit and self-interest to ensure Puncak does well. I believe this is his main company - his identity and legacy are tied to this. Something like "Duta Yap".
As such, I'm going to try 'tumpang'...and maybe pick up some of the leftovers. If I'm wrong...well, it won't be the first time I'm wrong. Or the tenth time. But I'm going to give this counter reasonable time. If the share price continues to slide up to a certain point, and falls past the important supports, I will cut loss and lick my wounds. I just hope I'll have the discipline to do so, should it indeed come to that.
@ Mat Cendana I like what you wrote re "tumpang" :) just to put things in perspective, of the total rather small shareholding of 415,089,611 shares issued, the substantial shareholders Tan Sri Rozali and related holding companies, children etc collectively hold approximately 40% 177,432,124 shares *filing as on 11 May 2015* and Lembaga Tabung Haji hold approximately 10% or 40,101,600 shares * filing as on 24 Nov 2014*; also although EPF and Great Eastern/OCBC both ceased to be substantial shareholders as from 11 May 2015 and 12 Jun 2014, the latest Annual Report dated 25 May 2015 still listed them as holding on to their less than 5% shares each. I am saying we should draw comfort from the above substantial shareholders' position ....... after all, Tan Sri Rozali's interest is inextricably linked to ours and I do not see why he would do anything foolish to harm the company ..... so yes, I like your idea tumpang tumpang at the current level 133 ! No one can tell what and where is the bottom, who knows ??? Seriously, how much downside can there be if you buy at 133/134 level ?? No, I do not believe in "cutting loss" when there is no noticeable change to the fundamentals/profitability of the company (I think it is a crazy idea sold by traders/analysts to newbies to the trading game). This cutting loss just because prices has dropped is taboo : as an investor, there is no logical reason to sell at a loss , remember it is not up to us to dictate the daily, weekly or monthly price of Puncak but it is within your control what you do with your investment as a shareholder
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Roger123
1,821 posts
Posted by Roger123 > 2016-01-13 12:21 | Report Abuse
Noo...